Tag Archives: market lab report

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 3/9/16

Major averages fell yesterday on lower volume as oil took a 4% hit. That said, the Dow Jones Utility Average had another strong day as it made a higher-high. It is up 11.2% year-to-date while the NASDAQ Composite is down -7.2%, the S&P 500 is down -3.2%, and the Russell 2000 is down -6.0% year-to-date. This pronounced divergence along with the tough time the few leading stocks have had in their ability to follow-through with any reasonable gains suggests the life expectancy of this bounce may be limited. Futures are up owing to higher oil prices and European stocks one day ahead of the European Central Bank meeting. The ECB tends to be dovish and has indicated more easy money is on the way. The ECB will deliver a policy decision on Thursday. The central bank is widely expected to push its deposit rate further into negative territory, but analysts are also betting on an expansion of the ECB’s aggressive quantitative-easing program as well as another round of cheap loans to banks. That said, the ECB could disappoint markets again, as it did in December when its rate cut and QE extension massively underwhelmed investors. European markets remain in downtrends overall as QE has yet to spark any sort of economic recovery.

Market Lab Report on Trend Timing – Market Direction Model vs VIX Volatility Model

Q: The Market Direction Model (MDM) has had a challenging time with these trendless markets as I’ve been unable to profit from it. Meanwhile, I’ve been able to profit nicely by taking early profits from a couple of the VIX Volatility Model’s (VVM’s) signals since its recent launch. Please comment. A:  https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/faqs/answer/the-market-direction-model-mdm-has-had-a-challenging-time-with-these-trendless-markets-as-i-ve-been-unable-to-profit-from-it-meanwhile-i-ve-been-able-to-profit-nicely-by-taking-early-profits-from-a-couple-of-the-vix-volatility-model-s-vvm-s-signals-since-its-recent-launch-please-comment   (Click link for response)

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 3/8/16

Major averages finished yesterday mixed on lower, below average volume with small caps continuing to lead. There was a notable divergence between big caps as shown by the NASDAQ-100 down -0.59% compared to the small cap Russell 2000 which finished higher by +1.13%. Crude oil continued higher as well nearly reaching $38 a barrel. Leading stocks are starting to materialize though the process has been slow. Indeed, the market seems more tentative with each passing day. The question is whether oil which has strongly correlated with stocks since the start of the year can continue to bounce. Within the context of the prior move off of the February lows, a pullback here is not out of the question. It then becomes a matter of watching just how far such a pullback carries, and whether or not it indicates a potential rally failure. The 50-day moving average for both the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 therefore represents key support on any continued pullback off their recent peaks. Futures are currently lower by about half a percent.