Following The Smart Money For Asian Stocks Beyond 13Fs
Summary Filing form 13F, the reporting of holdings for institutional investment managers with investment discretion over $100 million or more in stocks, is unique to the U.S. It is possible to utilize a piggybacking strategy for idea generation in Asia, if you know who and how to follow. I utilize a 360-degree idea generation process via screens, insider trades, 13Fs, fund manager letters, analyst reports, blogs, forums among others. Following The Smart Money In Asia In the U.S., institutional investment managers with investment discretion over $100 million or more in stocks have to file 13Fs declaring their holdings (long only) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission within 45 days of every quarter. This has indirectly made the investment strategy of cloning the portfolios of well-known and successful fund managers a reality. Even for investors who do not believe in replicating the positions of their favorite investors in full, they might still generate potential investment ideas by taking a peek at the investors’ holdings. Since I invest in both Asian and U.S. stocks, I have always thought about the possibility of applying certain aspects of this piggybacking strategy in the Asian context and this is precisely the focus of this article. In the sections below, I will provide a few examples of generating Asian stock ideas by following the smart money. That being said, it is intriguing that while I generated most of my stock ideas via quantitative screens, my investments and calls were validated to a large extent by similar positions that other fund managers and investors held. I will share some of these past and current stock ideas below. Following U.S. Investors Vested In Asian Stocks An increasing number of U.S. funds are investing in Asia-listed stocks. While they do not have to file 13Fs for these non-U.S. holdings, it is possible to uncover these hidden gems by reviewing mutual funds’ shareholder reports and hedge funds’ investor letters (assuming that they are accessible). Let me illustrate this with some examples. Oriental Watch Holdings Ltd ( OTC:ORWHF ) (0398.HK) was the first Asia-listed stock which I wrote about here on Seeking Alpha. Oriental Watch simply just appeared on my net-net screens one day, and it appeared to be attractive given its long-term profitability and dividend track record and the value of its self-owned properties. I was not alone in my views on Oriental Watch. Tweedy Browne, Benjamin Graham’s former broker which subsequently made its foray into fund management as a classic Graham value manager (read “The Little Book Of Value Investing” by Christopher Browne if you are interested about understanding the firm’s investment philosophy), first disclosed its stake in the stock in its Q3 2013 commentary , and referred to it as “a luxury retailer and a classic Ben Graham net current asset microcap stock, which at purchase was trading at two-thirds of its net cash and inventories.” As of June 30, 2015, Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund and Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund II held 7,364,000 and 3,348,000 shares of Oriental Watch, respectively. Other Hong Kong-listed stocks currently held by Tweedy Browne include Great Eagle Holdings Ltd ( OTCPK:GEAHF ) (41 HK), Hengdeli Holdings Ltd ( OTCPK:HENGY ) (3389 HK), Miramar Hotel & Investment ( OTC:MMHTF ) (71 HK) and Tai Cheung Holdings Ltd ( OTC:TAICY ) (88 HK). Tweedy Browne also holds shares in a Japanese net-net, Shinko Shoji ( OTCPK:SKSJF ) (8141 JP), which I briefly wrote about here . Besides reading investor letters and shareholder reports of U.S. funds investing globally, one can also follow individual fund managers on their social media platforms such as blogs. Travis Wiedower, Managing Director of Wiedower Capital, a small value-oriented investment firm, writes a blog (called Egregiously Cheap) and he recently wrote an article titled “Oriental Watch: Deep Value at its Finest”. In the article, Travis refers to Oriental Watch as a “company selling for ~35% of liquidation value that has a clear route back to profitability.” This is the first Asia-listed stock that Travis has written about, and I hope he can share more such ideas in the future! Following Asian Fund Managers Directly Asian mutual funds will disclose their holdings periodically in quarterly or semi-annual shareholder reports, which are typically available on their respective websites. For Asian hedge funds, I will be on the lookout for any interviews that the fund managers have done or investor letters that they have made available. Ronald Chan will probably be a familiar name to my readers. Ronald Chan is the author of the book “The Value Investors: The Lessons From The World’s Top Fund Managers, which I have quoted a couple of times in my previous articles. Ronald is also the author of another book “Behind the Berkshire Hathaway Curtain: Lessons from Warren Buffett’s Top Business Leaders,” where he interviewed the top managers of Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiaries. It is obvious from these two books that Ronald is a value investor; he is currently the Chief Investment Officer of Chartwell Capital based in Hong Kong, which he started in 2007. In a Barron’s interview published in November 2014, Ronald spoke about some of his holdings, including Oriental Watch (I am using the same stock as an example to illustrate that implementing a piggybacking strategy in Asia is more difficult compared with the U.S., but not impossible if one knows where to look). Ronald has this to say about Oriental Watch: Oriental Watch is a classic Benjamin Graham example where its assets are trading much higher than its market cap. Its market cap is about HKD900 million. Its retail properties are worth HKD650 million. The watch inventory, which is 70% Rolex, has a value of HKD1.8 billion. Add cash, minus debt, I think it’s worth HKD2.4 billion. I can sleep at night because I know that it has good inventory and the retail locations that are worth a fortune. This is a classic asset-driven, asset-backed idea which no one looks at! In his interview with Barron’s, Ronald also highlighted the following Asian stocks: Hyundai ( OTC:HYMPY ) (005380.KS), Kia ( OTC:KIMTF )(000270.KS), Central China Real Estate (832 HK) and Dynam Japan Holdings Co. Ltd. ( OTC:DJPHF ) (6889 HK), a Magic Formula stock which I wrote about here . Cederberg Capital is another Asian fund that I follow. On its website , Cederberg Capital outlines its investment approach as follows: “Cederberg Capital utilizes a disciplined value-oriented approach in order to protect capital during periods of market declines and to maximize returns in the long run.” In Cederberg Greater China Equity Fund’s Q2 2015 letter, Managing Director Dawid Krige also commented on the firm’s investment philosophy: We are value investors at heart. However, we aren’t looking for Ben Graham’s “net-nets” or the “cigar butts” of the early-Buffett years. In our experience “cheap” often stays cheap in China, hence we are better off buying undervalued quality, i.e. good businesses managed by trustworthy people. We love growth, if through our research we can gain confidence about the likelihood it will be realised. However, we are careful not to overpay for growth, hence we always insist on a significant margin of safety, regardless of a company’s growth potential. Past and present investments that Cederberg Capital has profiled or commented on in its letters include Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH), which owns the top Maotai liquor brand in China, and Clear Media ( OTC:CRMLY ) (100 HK). Clear Media was a past investment of mine which I successfully exited with a 80% return in 14 months in August 2014, inclusive of a special dividend. Clear Media was an outdoor media company with dominant bus-shelter advertising network; it boasted an unique mix of deep value and wide moat characteristics. At the point of my purchase, Clear Media traded at 3x EV/EBITDA, with net cash accounting for close to half of market capitalization. Its business and attractive returns on capital were protected by high barriers to entry due to local regulatory approvals required for construction and maintenance of bus shelters. However, it is unfortunate (for investors like us) that Cederberg Capital has decided to “limit discussions of existing holdings to protect our intellectual property and to mitigate any behavioral biases, though we will continue to discuss investments we’ve exited in future letters.” Nevertheless, I look forward to reading Cederberg Capital’s future letters to learn about the firm’s past “case studies.” Replicating Guru Investors’ Potential Buys In Asia Via Quantitative Screening Walter Schloss is one of the deep value investors that I admire and seek to emulate, particularly considering that he has the longest and most consistent investment track records among his peers. However, it is regrettable that Walter Schloss stopped managing money in 2001 (partly due to the fact that cheap U.S. stocks became hard to find), and he never invested in Japan or Asian stocks given concerns over differences in politics, language and regulations. Nevertheless, I thought hard about what Walter Schloss could have potentially bought in Asia if he applied his stock selection criteria for U.S. In an article titled “Walter Schloss’ Japan Shopping List For Deep-Value Stocks” published here , I did a screen based on Schloss’ 16-point “investment checklist” and found 20 Japanese stocks and 299 Asian stocks that will meet his stock selection criteria of trading near historical share price lows, being valued at a discount to net asset value and having debt-to-equity ratios below 1. Looking ahead, I plan to try to replicate other investors’ investment strategies in Asia using screens and sharing the results with my readers and subscribers. Concluding Thoughts Personally, I don’t subscribe to the view of cloning any investor’s portfolio lock, stock and barrel, even for U.S. stocks. The reason is that there are various complications involved with piggybacking such as time lag, average purchase cost and portfolio sizing. In the Asian context, a complete cloning approach is even more risky, considering that it is more difficult to track any individual fund manager’s exact holdings and buy/sell history with reasonable accuracy. Instead, I advocate that investors use fund managers’ holdings as either an idea generation tool or an alternative form of validation of one’s original investment thesis. Note: I utilize a 360-degree process to generate investment ideas, including screens, insider trades, 13Fs, fund manager letters, analyst reports, blogs, forums among others. 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