Lilly Changes Endpoint For Alzheimer’s Drug Trial; Stock Falls
Big pharma Eli Lilly ( LLY ) changed its goals for a much-anticipated clinical trial of its Alzheimer’s disease drug Tuesday, sending the stock down in a bad day overall for drug stocks. Lilly’s phase-three trial of its drug solanezumab, called Expedition-3, had previously targeted two primary endpoints: a slowing of cognitive decline, and a slowing of functional decline. On Tuesday, Lilly said it was going to keep cognitive decline as the primary endpoint, but functional decline would become a key secondary endpoint. Lilly is expecting to report its first results from the trial late this year, and make a decision about filing for approval based on the outcome. “Emerging scientific evidence supports the idea that cognitive decline precedes and predicts functional decline in Alzheimer’s disease, particularly in earlier stages of the disease,” Lilly said by way of explanation in its press release. Lilly added that “regulators globally will continue to view both cognitive and functional endpoints as necessary for clinical trials in people with mild Alzheimer’s dementia, and regulatory guidance has been to include these as co-primary endpoints,” so it’s not clear how much difference this will make to the drug’s approvability. Nonetheless, a trial that failed a co-primary endpoint would still be a failed trial. “Sounds like Lilly is doing everything they can to improve the success rate of Expedition-3,” wrote Evercore ISI analyst Mark Schoenebaum in an email to clients. Schoenebaum said Lilly told him the decision wasn’t based on data from the trial itself, which the company hasn’t yet seen. Lilly did analyze data from its earlier solanezumab studies Expedition-1 and Expedition-2, however, “and other datasets in the field.” Schoenebaum added that the phase-three trial of a possible competitor from Biogen ( BIIB ), aducanumab, is using a different test that measures both cognitive and functional decline as its sole primary endpoint. Lilly stock hit a 52-week low of 69.60 on the stock market today , on a day when stocks in general and drug stocks in particular were taking a hit. By midday, it was down 3.5% near 71. Biogen stock was down 2.5% near 250.