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Indonesia Slashes Rates Again: ETFs In Focus

Indonesia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the second time this year in its efforts to improve sluggish economic growth. Bank Indonesia (BI) slashed its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7%. BI had undertaken a similar sized cut in January after keeping rates unchanged for the last 10 months of 2015. The recent rate cut was largely expected as the majority of economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted that BI would cut the key rate by 25 basis points. In its efforts to ease the economy, BI not only lowered interest rates but also reduced the reserve requirement on rupiah deposits by 1 percentage point to 6.5%, effective from March 16. This move is expected to boost liquidity by more than $2.5 billion (34 trillion rupiah). These measures from the Indonesian central bank come closely on the heels of the U.S. Federal Reserve taking a dovish stance with hopes of further rate hikes fading. The Indonesian bank stated that its measures to ease monetary policy are aimed at achieving solid macroeconomic stability with reduced inflationary pressure against a backdrop of uncertain global markets. It further pointed out that it will continue to work with the government to control inflation, stimulate domestic economic growth and bring about structural reforms. The Indonesian president, Joko Widodo, popularly known as “Jokowi” has been quite vocal about his wish to see interest rates fall further to spur growth. As per a Bloomberg report, Indonesia’s economy expanded just 4.79% last year, the lowest since 2009. This year, with inflation under control, the overall sentiment is that the rates could be slashed further. In 2016, BI expects inflation to be around the mid-point of its target range of 3% to 5%. Apart from Indonesia, several other countries are also following the strategy of monetary easing, which generally comes in the form of an interest rate cut, to boost growth. Earlier this year, Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) move to impose a negative interest rate for the first time surprised the markets. The BOJ Governor Haruhiko even stated that there will be no limit to efforts for easing monetary policy. The central bank may further expand asset purchases if required. Other Asian countries including Taiwan and Bangladesh have cut rates. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) has also hinted on further policy easing in its March 2016 meeting. Investor sentiment towards Indonesia has improved following its liberalization developments by easing restrictions on foreign investment in several industries including films, restaurants and healthcare earlier this month. Jokowi’s move to deregulate the traditionally protectionist economy should help in accelerating growth and making the Indonesian business environment more conducive for new investment. A Closer Look at 3 Indonesian ETFs In the light of these developments, we highlight three ETFs – the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (NYSEARCA: EIDO ) , the Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF (NYSEARCA: IDX ) and the Market Vectors Indonesia Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: IDXJ ) – that have gained 6.2%, 7.2% and 6.2%, respectively, in the last 10 days. All three have a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or a ‘Hold’ rating with a High risk outlook. EIDO This is the most popular ETF tracking the Indonesian market with AUM of $344.3 million and average daily volume of almost 756,000 shares. The fund tracks the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index, holding 86 securities in its basket while charging 62 bps in annual fees from investors. The product is somewhat concentrated in both sectors and securities. The top five firms account for almost half of total assets, while from a sector point of view, financials dominates the fund’s assets with 38% share. The fund has a heavy tilt towards large-cap stocks at 84%. IDX This ETF follows the Market Vectors Indonesia Index, holding a basket of about 45 companies that are based or do most of their business in Indonesia. The product puts about 54.6% of total assets in the top 10 holdings, suggesting moderate concentration. Large caps are pretty prevalent, as these make up 83% of assets. With respect to sector holdings, financials again takes the largest share at 34.9%, followed by consumer staples (18%) and consumer discretionary (14.4%). The product has amassed $98.1 million in its asset base while it trades in volumes of around 89,000 shares. It charges 58 bps in fees per year from investors. IDXJ Unlike the other two, this is a small-cap centric fund. It is unpopular and less liquid having AUM of $5.3 million and average daily volume of about 2,000 shares. The fund tracks the Market Vectors Indonesia Small Cap Index and charges 61 bps in annual fees. Holding 29 stocks, the product does a decent job of spreading out as the top 10 securities hold about 62% weight. However, it is a bit concentrated from a sector outlook, as financials takes the top spot at 42.1% while industrials and energy round off the next two positions at 23% and 14.7%, respectively. Original Post

Best And Worst Q1’16: Utilities ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings

The Utilities sector ranks last out of the ten sectors as detailed in our Q1’16 Sector Ratings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. Last quarter , the Utilities sector ranked fifth. It gets our Dangerous rating, which is based on aggregation of ratings of nine ETFs and 34 mutual funds in the Utilities sector. See a recap of our Q4’15 Sector Ratings here . Figure 1 ranks from best to worst eight Utilities ETFs and Figure 2 shows the five best and worst-rated Utilities mutual funds. Not all Utilities sector ETFs and mutual funds are created the same. The number of holdings varies widely (from 20 to 255). This variation creates drastically different investment implications and, therefore, ratings. Investors should not buy any Utilities ETFs or mutual funds because none get an Attractive-or-better rating. If you must have exposure to this sector, you should buy a basket of Attractive-or-better rated stocks and avoid paying undeserved fund fees. Active management has a long history of not paying off. Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FUTY ) is the top-rated Utilities ETF and the American Century Quantitative Equity Utilities Fund (MUTF: BULIX ) is the top-rated Utilities mutual fund. Both earn a Neutral rating. The Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Utilities ETF (NYSEARCA: RYU ) is the worst-rated Utilities ETF and the ICON Utilities Fund (MUTF: ICTVX ) is the worst-rated Utilities mutual fund. RYU earns a Dangerous rating and ICTVX earns a Very Dangerous rating. 79 stocks of the 3000+ we cover are classified as Utilities stocks, but due to style drift, Utilities ETFs and mutual funds hold 255 stocks. PPL Corporation (NYSE: PPL ) is one of our favorite stocks held by Utilities ETFs and mutual funds. It is the only Utility stock that earns an Attractive rating. Since 1998, PPL has grown after-tax profits ( NOPAT ) by 10% compounded annually. Over this timeframe, PPL has improved its return on invested capital ( ROIC ) from 6% to 7%, which is the highest ROIC of all 79 Utilities stocks under coverage. Despite the continued strength of PPL’s business, the stock is only up 6% over the past decade and shares are currently undervalued. At its current price of $36/share, PPL has a price to economic book value ( PEBV ) ratio of 0.6. This ratio means that the market expects PPL’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 40% from its current levels. If PPL can grow NOPAT by just 3% compounded annually for the next decade , the stock is worth $59/share today – a 64% upside. Connecticut Water Service (NASDAQ: CTWS ) is one of our least favorite stocks held by Utilities ETFs and mutual funds and earns a Very Dangerous rating. Throughout the history of our model, which dates back to 1998, Connecticut Water Service has never generated positive economic earnings . The company’s ROIC has declined from 5% to 3% over the same timeframe. However, at its current price of $41/share the stock remains significantly overvalued. To justify its current price, Connecticut Water Service must grow NOPAT by 7% compounded annually for the next nine years . While this may not seem like much in terms of profit growth, keep in mind that CTWS has failed to generate economic profits in any year for nearly two decades. Figures 3 and 4 show the rating landscape of all Utilities ETFs and mutual funds. Figure 3: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst ETFs Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 4: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Mutual Funds Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings D isclosure: David Trainer and Kyle Guske II receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Duke Energy And Southern Company Set To Soar In 2016

Unregulated utility companies’ performance likely to stay challenging in 2016 because of weak and volatile power prices. DUK and SO making correct strategic attempts to strengthen regulated operations. Stock valuations for DUK and SO are cheap, as both are trading at discounts to peers and the industry average. 2015 has been a tough year for the U.S. utility sector, mainly because of concerns regarding the Fed interest rate increase; the utility sector ETF (NYSEARCA: XLU ) is down 10% year-to-date. Moving into 2016, given the decline in the power and natural gas prices, U.S. unregulated utility companies’ performance will stay volatile and weak; however, I think U.S. utility companies with significant and growing regulated business operations will stay an attractive investment option for income-hunting investors. Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK ) and Southern Company (NYSE: SO ) are the two U.S. utility companies that have large regulated business operations and are further working to strengthen their regulated business operations, which will provide stability to their revenues and cash flows, and support dividend growths. Moreover, valuations for both the stocks stay compelling. Two Utility Stocks: DUK and SO In recent years, low power and natural gas prices has adversely affected performance of unregulated business operations. As the power and natural gas prices continues to stay weak, I think, 2016 will be another challenging year for the unregulated utility companies. In the volatile unregulated business environment, the U.S. utility companies are working to lower their unregulated business operations, which will positively affect their performance. DUK is among the leading utility companies of the U.S., and has been working to strengthen its regulated business operations by making regulated capital investments; the company is expected to make capital investments of $20 billion in the next four years, which will result in increase in its rate base and support earnings growth. The company is not only upgrading its existing regulated infrastructure, but also diversifying the power generation assets by focusing on renewable energy sources, which will improve its business risk profile and allow it to comply with changing environmental regulations. DUK plans to spend to $3 billion on renewable energy in the next four years. Moreover, in 2016, if the company decides to sell its international unregulated business operations, it will positively affect its stock price and will make its cash flows more stable. Also, once the company successfully closes acquisition of Piedmont Natural Gas (NYSE: PNY ), which is consistent with its efforts to grow regulated earnings, it could opt to undertake more regulated gas business acquisitions to strengthen its gas business. Given the company’s aggressive efforts to strengthen its regulated operations, its cash flows will improve, which will allow it to increase its dividend growth consistently in the coming years. The stock has yield of 4.75% , which is supported by its 14% operating cash flow yield, and makes it an impressive investment option for income investors. Also, investors should keep track of yearly earnings call in February, in which the company will provide update on its 5-year growth expectation, synergies related to PNY acquisition and rate case outlook. Southern Company is another utility stock which stays an attractive investment option for income investors, as it offers a solid yield of 4.7% , which are backed by its operating cash flow yield of 15% . The company generates almost 90% of its earnings from regulated operations, which provides stability to its cash flows. Similar to DUK, SO also is working aggressively to modernize and strengthen its power generation assets. Moreover, once the company’s two construction projects, Kemper and Vogtle Power plants, are completed it will portend well for its long-term earnings. Also, the company has been actively increasing its renewable energy asset base. The company spent more than $2 billion on renewable in 2015, and plans to spend another $1.3 billion in 2016, which is expected to increase its renewable energy portfolio capacity to 2,600 MW. Consistent with its renewable generation assets base growth, the company acquired almost 600 MW of solar assets from First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR ). And also, completion of SO’s and AGL Resources (NYSE: GAS ) in the later half of 2016 will augur well for the stock price. The company’s efforts to improve its regulated power asset base will support its long-term earnings growth, and its business risk profile will improve, as it will complete pending acquisitions and ongoing construction projects. Also, the company’s cash flows will stay strong to support its dividend growth, which will improve investors’ confidence. Valuation and Summation Unregulated utility companies’ performance is likely to stay challenging in 2016 because of weak and volatile power prices. However, companies like DUK and SO, which are making correct strategic attempts to strengthen their regulated operations, will deliver healthy performances in future years. Both DUK and SO offer solid yields of 4.7% and 4.75%, respectively, which makes them attractive investment prospects for income-hunting investors. Moreover, stock valuations for DUK and SO are cheap, as both are trading at discounts to their peers and the industry average. DUK and SO are trading at forward P/E of 14.8x and 15.7x, respectively, versus the utility sector’s forward P/E of 16.5x .