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Will China Pull Copper ETFs Down?

Last week, copper prices witnessed the biggest weekly decline since January on oversupply concerns in China and sluggish demand growth. After a stressful stretch in 2015 due to softness in China’s manufacturing sector, global growth worries, a stronger U.S. dollar and surplus supplies, the red metal had shown a recovery in 2016. But the trend took a U-turn once concerns related to oversupply in China surfaced. While there are many factors influencing the price of copper, events in China are major contributors, as the country is the world’s biggest consumer of this industrial metal, making up roughly 40% of global copper demand. However, per the latest LME data, China’s shipments to Singapore jumped 4,800 tonnes, boosting exports and leading to worries about domestic oversupply in China. As per state-backed research firm Antaike , China could be holding more than 1 million tonnes of refined copper stocks at present, including bonded stocks, exchange stocks and metal held by traders and smelters. Historically, the strongest period of demand for copper from China is in the second quarter, as production of cables and wires is the highest during this period. However, sectors that import copper, including construction and manufacturing, have been hit hard. Thus, if China resorts to exporting copper instead of importing, it could send a major shockwave to red metal prices across the globe. Meanwhile, most of the other developed and developing economies are also experiencing sluggish growth, which in turn, is weighing on the global demand for copper and dampening its appeal. Oversupply concerns in China could intensify the global supply glut and drive copper prices further down. This brings our attention to copper ETFs – the iPath DJ-UBS Copper Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEARCA: JJC ), the United States Copper Index ETF (NYSEARCA: CPER ) and the iPath Pure Beta Copper ETN (NYSEARCA: CUPM ). These funds have a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or “Hold” rating (see all the Industrial Metals ETFs here ). iPath DJ-UBS Copper Total Return Sub-Index ETN The ETN tracks the Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return, which seeks to deliver returns through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on copper. The index currently consists of one futures contract on the commodity of copper (currently, the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX). The product charges investors 75 bps a year in fees and has a lower level of AUM of $29.6 million. It trades in paltry volume of about 26,000 shares a day, on average. The ETN shed nearly 4.4% in the last week (as of April 8, 2016). United States Copper Index ETF The fund seeks to track the performance of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total Return, plus interest income from CPER’s holdings. The index provides investors with exposure to a portfolio of copper futures contracts. The product has amassed $2.8 million in its asset base, while it sees paltry volume of about 2,000 shares a day. Its expense ratio came in at 0.65%. The ETF has lost 3.8% in the last week. iPath Pure Beta Copper ETN This note seeks to match the performance of the Barclays Copper Pure Beta Total Return Index. This can roll into one of a number of futures contracts with varying expiration dates, as selected, using the Barclays Pure Beta Series 2 Methodology, lowering the effect of contango. The note has amassed $1.8 million in its asset base and trades in a meager volume of about 250 shares a day. The expense ratio came in at 0.75%. CUPM is gained 0.5% in the last week. Original Post

The Small-Cap Premium Is Still MIA As A Buy & Hold Strategy

Yesterday’s post focused on the discouraging record for value investing over the last decade, but history looks even worse for the so-called small-cap premium in the US stock market. Yes, there have been periods when small cap shines relative to large caps, but the strategy has been a loser as a buy-and-hold proposition since 1980, based on Russell indexes. Excluding the “junk” or focusing on the “value” opportunities in the small-cap realm offers possible solutions, but the original concept using the Russell benchmarks is battered and bruised. Consider the cumulative results of the daily return spread for the Russell 2000 Index (a popular measure of US small caps) less the Russell 1000 (large caps) since the close of 1979. A dollar invested at the start of this period has faded to roughly 70 cents as of yesterday (Apr. 12, 2016). To be fair, there have been multi-year periods during the interim when small caps have outperformed large caps. But over the grand sweep of the last 35 years or so, sans timing, the small-cap concept has been a dog. Click to enlarge There are several explanations for why the small cap premium has been so elusive across the decades, although the most devastating view is that it was all a big head fake. Critics are quick to point out that the disappointing returns for small caps followed the arrival of the famous study by Rolf Banz in 1981 that put the strategy on the map and launched an industry dedicated to mining this premium. But as NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran recently asked: “The Small Cap Premium: Where is the beef?” Arguably the best case for salvaging the strategy lies with the notion that it’s best to ignore the financially troubled firms. As I discussed last year, a recent study by Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management and several co-authors – “Size Matters, If You Control Your Junk” – points to a fix by focusing on small companies with relatively strong financials. Nonetheless, small-cap investing as originally conceived comes with a hefty degree of empirical baggage these days. Optimists counter that the general run of disappointing small-cap performance lays the groundwork for hefty opportunities for the years ahead. Meantime, there’s another argument to counter the skeptics: small-cap value is where the real action is, as per the Fama-French research. In a future post, I’ll crunch the numbers and run a reality check on that idea. As for traditional small-cap investing a la Banz, history hasn’t been kind to the original strategy, at least when measured in the Russell indexes as a buy-and-hold setup. That doesn’t mean that the small-cap concept is dead. But some fancy footwork is required to make it work.

How To Trade In Gold ETFs After Robust 30-Year Rally?

Thanks to global growth concerns, reduced expectations for rate hike, geopolitical tensions and bearishness in the stock market, gold posted the biggest first-quarter gain in three decades. In addition, the adoption of negative interest rates by most central banks such as Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark and Europe boosted the demand for gold bullion and pushed the prices higher. Investors should note that most of the gains came in the first six weeks of the year and thereafter the momentum of increase slowed down. What’s In Store? The Fed signaled that interest rates in U.S. would stay low for some time and dialed back its projection from four lift-offs to two hikes in its recent meeting. This is weighing on the dollar and propelling the price of gold. The release of minutes last week showed that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates in April, signaling that weak global growth could hurt the ongoing recovery in the U.S. economy. Further, continued rise in the Japanese currency dampened investors’ faith in central banks’ ability to boost growth across the globe. Further, an erratic market showed up again as volatility in oil price and weak corporate earnings in the U.S. raised demand for the yellow metal as a store of value and hedge against market turmoil ahead of the Q1 earnings season. However, the recent slew of encouraging data especially on the manufacturing activity and job growth fronts reflect strength in the U.S. economy and perked-up risk-on sentiment. As a result, the strongest Q1 rally of the yellow metal seems to be fading given that gold was up just 1.3% in the first few trading sessions of April. Considering the robust gains in the first quarter, gold is still off about 35% from its 2011 all-time high of $1,900 per ounce (read: ETFs to Gain or Lose After Strong Jobs Report ). To sum up, the stability in the financial market and an improving U.S. economy could bolster the case for rate hike again and may dull the appeal for the safe haven asset in the coming months. Given the volatile environment for gold investment, investors should place their bet on gold ETFs cautiously or could take advantage of the quick turn in sentiment with the help of leveraged or inverse ETFs. Gold ETFs These ETFs are directly linked to the spot gold price or futures and are worth watching in the coming months. These have a favorable Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or ‘Hold’ rating with a Medium risk outlook. SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ): This is the largest and most popular ETF in the gold space with AUM of $32.6 billion and average daily volume of around 8.8 million shares. The fund tracks the price of gold bullion measured in U.S. dollars, and kept in London under the custody of HSBC Bank USA. Expense ratio comes in at 0.40%. The fund has added 0.6% so far this month. iShares Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: IAU ) : This ETF offers exposure to the day-to-day movement of the price of gold bullion and is backed by physical gold under the custody of JP Morgan Chase Bank in London. It has AUM of $7.5 billion and trades in solid volume of more than 8 million shares a day on average. The ETF charges 25 bps in annual fees and has gained 0.7% this month (read: Ride on Gold Rally with Best ETFs and Stocks of 2016 ). Van Eck Merk Gold ETF (NYSEARCA: OUNZ ): This product seeks to provide investors with a convenient and cost-efficient way to buy and hold gold through an exchange-traded product with the option to take physical delivery of gold when desired. It charges 40 bps in fees per year but is unpopular and an illiquid option with AUM of $99.5 million and average daily volume of 42,000 shares. OUNZ is up 0.7% this month. Leveraged Gold ETFs Investors who are bullish on gold right now may consider a near-term long on the precious metal with the following ETFs depending on their risk appetite. ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (NYSEARCA: UGL ): This fund seeks to deliver twice (2x or 200%) the return of the daily performance of gold bullion in U.S. dollars. It charges 95 bps in fees a year and has amassed $89.3 million in its asset base. Volume is light at under 40,000 shares per day. The ETF has gained 0.86% in the first few trading sessions of April. PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (NYSEARCA: DGP ): This ETN seeks to deliver twice the return of the daily performance of the DBIQ Optimum Yield Gold Index Excess Return, charging 75 bps in fees per year. It has accumulated $131 million in its asset base so far and trades in an average daily volume of 69,000 shares. The ETN is relatively flat so far this month. VelocityShares 3x Long Gold ETN (NASDAQ: UGLD ): This product provides three times (3x or 300%) exposure to the daily performance of the S&P GSCI Gold Index Excess Return plus returns from U.S. T-bills net of fees and expenses. The ETN has been able to manage an asset base of $64.6 million while charging a higher fee of 1.35% annually. However, the note trades in solid volume of over 546,000 shares a day on average and has returned 2% this month. Inverse Gold ETFs Any encouraging data on the economy could provide investors’ a near-term short opportunity on the bullion according to their risk appetite. DB Gold Short ETN (NYSEARCA: DGZ ): This ETN offers inverse (opposite) exposure to the performance of the DBIQ Optimum Yield Gold Index Excess Return. It has managed assets of $23.7 million so far this year and trades in a solid volume of 146,000 shares a day on average. It charges 0.75% in annual fees and has lost about 0.7% so far in April. ProShares Ultra Short Gold ETF (NYSEARCA: GLL ) : This fund seeks to deliver twice the inverse return of the daily performance of gold bullion in U.S. dollars, charging 95 bps in fees a year. It has $75.4 million in AUM and trades in lower average daily volume of 25,000 shares. The ETF has shed about 2% so far this month. VelocityShares 3x Inverse Gold ETN (NASDAQ: DGLD ): This product provides three times inverse exposure to the daily performance of the S&P GSCI Gold Index Excess Return. It has been able to manage an asset base of $17.4 million while charging investors a higher fee of 1.35% annually. The note trades in a light average daily volume of 43,000 shares and is down 2.1% so far this month. Link to the original post on Zacks.com