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Shifts In Leadership: Rules 3 And 4 For Investing

The stock market has moved towards new highs on the backs of the new leaders—the economically sensitive stocks. It’s not that the global economy has improved that much but it is that these companies have retooled to do better in a weaker environment. Expectations have been brought so far down and the stocks got so cheap that it has been easy to beat expectations with first quarter results. The market likes it when companies exceed expectations. Commodity prices, the bell weather for cyclicals, are increasing too, benefiting from a weaker dollar, which has now hit a multi-month low for reasons discussed in prior blogs and a somewhat stronger China. There has clearly been a mindset shift away from the old leaders towards the new and unless you recognize this shift, your performance will continue to lag behind the averages. Fortunately for our investors, we made these changes months ago beginning with covering our energy shorts, increasing our exposure to economically sensitive (especially commodity) stocks that are financially strong. We also are over-weighted banks and financials as discussed previously as a win/win proposition regardless of the economy. The best part about this change in leadership is that future earnings comparisons get easier for them as the year progresses as their results turned down dramatically beginning with the second quarter of 2015. Secondly, a weaker than expected dollar for 2016 has caused management to lift forecasts for this year. We made the shift in investment emphasis months ago aided in good part by utilizing our Rules #3 and #4 for investing. After looking at managements and strategies, we look for companies with rising incremental rates of returns and margins. In addition we are always searching for companies nearing their inflection point for earnings. Companies increasing their returns and margins are potential long investments as it tends to boost valuation and stock prices over time and it’s the reverse for the shorts. In addition, companies nearing an inflection point in earnings from negative to positive or visa versa as additional tools for investing. Anticipating with accuracy the inflection point as well as changes in incremental rates of returns are two of my time-tested rules for investing. These stocks tend to rise on a wall of worry or decline on a wall of exuberance… all the way to the bank. Patience is needed to let them unfold. None of these rules work in a vacuum. A successful investor needs a systematic approach combining a global macro-view for the proper asset allocation and risk controls with a bottom-up selection of each investment, which requires first hand research and and in-depth testing. While I agree with Warren Buffett that hedge funds have unperformed as a group over the last few years. It would be unwise to paint all managers with the same brush. A handful, who really understand what it takes to be a global investor today and abide by their time-tested methodologies, have done quite well and are worth every penny that they earn. Paix et Prospérité is one of them. Let’s take a quick look at the data points from last week and see if there were any changes in our core beliefs, asset allocation, risk controls and stock selection: The United States reported first quarter GNP increasing at an annual rate at 0.5% as we predicted down from a gain of 1.4% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending led the way with a gain of 1.9% in the quarter down from 2.4% in the prior quarter; service spending rose by a healthier 2.7%; the trade gap widened reducing GNP by 0.34%; housing rose at a 14.8% rate; nonresidential fixed investment fell 5.9% and the GDP price index increased by only 0.7%. It was important to note that disposable income accelerated to a 2.9% gain in the quarter from 2.3% in the fourth quarter and the savings rate rose to 5.2% from 5.0% in the prior quarter. Growth in employment and wages combined with low inflation will result in more consumer discretionary income, which will support continued growth in consumer spending and the economy in 2016. The Fed also met last week and there was no surprise that the Fed policy was left unchanged. It is obvious why the Fed remains on hold: the U.S. economy weakened in the most recent quarter; inflation remains well below the 2% Fed target; problems abound abroad and finally fear of the ramifications of Britain potentially leaving as a member of the Eurozone. Economic activity and employment accelerated in the Eurozone in the first quarter with a gain of 0.6% from the fourth quarter and up 1.6% from a year ago. It was important to note that consumer prices reported for April were 0.2% below the prior despite all the actions of the ECB. Expect no changes in monetary and fiscal policies until after the Brexit vote at the end of June. China’s official manufacturers index was reported yesterday at 50.1 down from 50.2 the prior month. A number above 50 signals that the economy continued to expand after seven months of contraction. New factory orders and the production sub-index both fell slightly but also remain over 50 indicating continued expansion too. I remain confident that China will expand by at least 6-6.5% this year bolstering world growth. Japan remains the trouble spot amongst all major industrialized countries. The BOJ met and maintained its policies; the yen strengthened as investors sold risk assets and the stock market fell dramatically. Etsuro Honda, an advisor to Prime Minister Abe, raised concerns that monetary policy alone cannot lift the economy however the country’s debt situation precludes much stimulus. I remain cautious on Japan. Let’s wrap up. Events of the last week reinforced many of our core beliefs. One of my key beliefs, “This is a market of stocks, not a stock market”, was bolstered this week by a combination of disparate earnings reports and commentary by companies across a wide spectrum of industries but also by the clear shift in mindset from old leadership to new. This doesn’t mean that an Amazon, Facebook, Alibaba or a LinkedIn cannot still stand out, but I am suggesting that you need to recognize the changes occurring and invest stock-specific rather than by groups, regions or industries. In closing, review the facts, and then pause to reflect on proper asset allocation, risk tools, mindset changes by investors and managements. Lastly, do in-depth research on each investment… and invest accordingly!

The V20 Portfolio: Week #30

The V20 portfolio is an actively managed portfolio that seeks to achieve an annualized return of 20% over the long term. If you are a long-term investor, then this portfolio may be for you. You can read more about how the portfolio works and the associated risks here . Always do your own research before making an investment. Read the last update here . Note: Current allocation and planned transactions are only available to premium subscribers . Bonus: Recently I was interviewed by Investor In The Family , a podcast that touches on all facets of the investment world. I talked about some of my investment philosophies and why the V20 Portfolio was able to outperform. I will dedicate another piece to elaborate on certain points, but you can listen to the podcast today right here . Over the past week, the V20 Portfolio declined by 3.7% while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) slipped by 1.3%. Portfolio Update Despite beating earnings on Tuesday, Spirit Airlines’ (NASDAQ: SAVE ) stock shed 11.6% over the past week. The decline reflected the general pessimism towards the airline industry, as demonstrated by AMEX Airline Index’s 2.9% drop. I believe that the biggest contributor to the loss was rising oil prices. While fuel expense was still down quarter on quarter, the rallying commodity market will inevitably increase the price of fuel should the current uptrend persist. This is a macro factor that every single airline is exposed to, but I believe that Spirit Airlines will be among the least affected. Its strong operating margin (~20%) means that increasing fuel prices will be less damaging to the firm’s bottom line. To illustrate, a 500 bps increase in fuel expense as a percentage of revenue will wipe out 25% of operating profits for Spirit Airlines, whereas the same increase will erase 50% of operating profits of a company running on a 10% operating margin (e.g. Virgin America). Despite the fact that oil was climbing to new highs, Conn’s (NASDAQ: CONN ) was not able to benefit. Given disappointing retail sales in March (-0.3% actual vs +0.1% expectation), sentiment may worsen next week. While we should not be overly concerned with these month-to-month reports, it is still worthwhile to understand how macro factors can affect investors’ perception in the short term. One company that did directly benefit (at least from a market perspective) from climbing oil prices was our helicopter transportation company. While shares have appreciated, it is very possible that the company’s oil and gas revenue will continue to deteriorate in 2016. In the long-run, rising oil prices will still benefit the company by increasing demand for air transportation. However, this does not preclude the company from suffering short-term setbacks. The market has been efficient enough to recognize that distinction, at least over the past couple of weeks. The title of being the second biggest position, which belonged to Spirit Airlines, was usurped by an insurance company when we carried out our major transformation at the beginning of April. Thus far, shares have traded sideways. No matter how well the company performs in Q1 and Q2, Investor sentiment may not reverse until hurricane season passes given the company’s exposure in Florida. In that sense, next week’s earnings release may not be as important as you think. Performance Since Inception Click to enlarge Disclosure: I am/we are long CONN, SAVE. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

ITC Holdings’ (ITC) CEO Joseph Welch on Q1 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

ITC Holdings Corp. (NYSE: ITC ) Q1 2016 Earnings Conference Call April 28, 2016 10:00 ET Executives Stephanie Amaimo – Director, IR Joseph Welch – Chairman, President & CEO Rejji Hayes – SVP & CFO Analysts Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Caroline Bone – Deutsche Bank Praful Mehta – Citigroup Operator Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the ITC Holdings Corp First Quarter Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Ms. Stephanie Amaimo. Ma’am, you may begin. Stephanie Amaimo Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us for ITC’s 2016 first quarter earnings conference call. Joining me on today’s call are Joseph Welch, Chairman, President and CEO of ITC; and Rejji Hayes, our Senior Vice President and CFO. This morning we issued a press release summarizing our results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2016. We expect to file our Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission today. Before we begin, I would like to make everyone aware of the cautionary language contained in the Safe Harbor statement. Certain statements made during today’s call that are not historical facts such as those regarding our future plans, objectives, and expected performance reflect forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. While we believe these statements are reasonable, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from our projections and expectations. These risks and uncertainties are disclosed in our reports filed with the SEC such as our periodic reports on forms 10-K and 10-Q and our other SEC filings. You should consider these risk factors when evaluating our forward-looking statements. Our forward-looking statements represent our outlook only as of today and we disclaim any obligation to update these statements except as may be required by law. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on today’s call is available on the Investor Relations page of our website. I will now turn the call over to Joe Welch. Joseph Welch Thank you, Stephanie and good morning everyone. I’m pleased to report that we’re off to a solid start in 2016. We continue to deliver operational excellence to our customers and superior growth to our shareholders while concurrently focusing on the Fortis acquisition of ITC. On the operational front, system performance for the first quarter of 2016 aligned with our historical track record with good performance across the operating companies and minimal impacts to the system despite several spring storms in March. In addition, our capital projects and maintenance programs were off to a good start for the year. Many reliability, system capacity and customer interconnection projects are in process across all of our operating companies and progressing on schedule. One notable project in Detroit that we work to complete it in February is our portion of the new Temple substation which will support the load requirements for the new Red Wings Stadium. With respect to our development efforts, we continue to advance the new Covert project, which is scheduled to go into service later this year along with preparations and certifications to operate in PJM. We are also continuing to negotiate bilateral contracts with shippers on the Lake Erie Connector project. As we highlighted on our last call, the MISO Transmission owners filed their updated testimony on January 29, in the second base ROE complaint and have since held various hearings and briefings during the last several months as part of their most recent procedural schedule. And initial decision in the second base ROE complaint is expected from the Administrative Law Judge by the end of June. While final decisions from the FERC Commission aren’t expected until late 2016 and the first half of 2017 for the first and second complaints respectively, we remain confident that FERC will continue to support their historical policies given the significant investment requirements necessary to modernize the electrical infrastructure in the U.S. As for other regulatory matters, on March 11, FERC issued two orders concerning ITC Midwest. In summary, in its orders on the final and the formal challenge of ITC Midwest 2015 formula rates in its orders conditionally accepting the Bent Tree facility service agreement, FERC concluded that ITC Midwest’s decision to elect out of bonus depreciation wasn’t prudent. As a result, FERC has required ITC Midwest to simulate the effects of bonus depreciation that is to calculate generally applicable transmission rates and its charges under a specific agreement as though the company actually had taken bonus depreciation for facilities placed into service in 2015. In response to FERC’s order, on April 11, ITC Midwest filed request for rehearing on both orders, essentially asking FERC to reconsider and reverse its decisions. To the extent that FERC decided not to reverse its orders on the formal challenge, ITC Midwest also asked FERC to modify the date for implementation of the order on the formal challenge so that ITC Midwest is able to maintain compliance with the new tax law requirements. As we wait FERC’s response to our request for rehearing, we’ve taken steps to comply with these orders and have recorded the applicable bonus depreciation impacts during the first quarter as well as the necessary compliance filings on the Bent Tree facility service agreement. Subsequently, we’ve since received a similar challenges at METC from CMS, and are in the process of evaluating the next steps. That said, although we expect these proceedings to take some time to be resolved, we plan to elect bonus depreciation across all our companies for the 2015 and 2016 tax years. With respect to the Fortis transaction, Fortis and ITC have worked diligently to advance the transaction. The most material news since our last call – last week’s announcement of Fortis entering into a definitive agreement with GIC to acquire 19.9% equity interest in ITC for over $1.2 billion in cash upon closing the transaction. Needless to say, we are delighted with this outcome, as well as a well-respected long-term investor with over $100 billion in assets under management and strong track record of investing in North America infrastructure, GIC will be a great investment partner for Fortis and co-owners of ITC. With the minority investor secured, we can now proceed with other key milestones in the transaction, including the remaining State and Federal regulatory filings and the shareholder votes for both Fortis at ITC. Overall, the transaction continues to progress as planned, and we expect to close in the late 2016. Although it’s been a busy start to the year, we look forward to another strong year both operationally to the benefits of our customers, and financially by creating long-term value for the shareholders. I will now turn the call over to Rejji to elaborate on our first quarter 2016 financial results. Rejji Hayes Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. For the three months ended March 31, 2016, ITC reported net income of $64.2 million or $0.42 per diluted share as compared to reported net income of $67.1 million or $0.43 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2015. Operating earnings for the first quarter of 2016 were $84.5 million or $0.55 per diluted share compared to $73.1 million or $0.47 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2015. Operating earnings are reported on a basis consistent with how we have provided our guidance for the year and exclude the following items. First, they exclude regulatory charges of approximately $1.1 million or $0.01 per share for the first quarter of 2015. The 2015 charges relate to management’s decision to write-off abandoned costs associated with a project of ITC Transmission. Second, operating earnings exclude the estimated refund liability associated with the MISO base ROE, which totaled $11.5 million or $0.07 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2016 and $4.8 million or $0.03 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2015. It is possible that upon the ultimate resolution of this matter we may be required to pay refunds beyond what has been record to-date. We will continue to assess this matter and we’ll provide updates as necessary. Lastly, they exclude after tax expenses associated with the Fortis transaction of approximately $8.7 million or $0.06 per diluted share for the first quarter 2016. Operating earnings for the three months ended March 31, 2016 increased by approximately $11.4 million or $0.08 per diluted share of the comparable period in 2015, primarily due to higher income associated with increased rate base at our operating companies coupled with lower non-recoverable bonus payments associated with the V-Plan project in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. These beneficial factors are partially offset by the impact of electing bonus depreciation, as Joe highlighted, at all of our operating subsidiaries. For the three months ended March 31, 2016, we invested $176.6 million in capital projects at our operating companies, including $41.1 million at ITC Transmission, $47 million of METC, $74.8 million at ITC Midwest and $13.7 million at ITC Great Plains. With respect to our financing liquidity initiatives on April 26, 2016, we executed a 30-year debt issuance at METC, the $200 million of senior secured notes were priced at 3.9% and the proceeds will be used to refinance an unsecured three-year term loan at METC. As we’ve underscored in the past, management remains committed to sustaining our strong financial position and solid investment grade credit ratings. As such, we are pleased to report that on April 15, Moody’s affirmed the issue ratings in outlook of ITC and its regulated operating subsidiaries. From a liquidity perspective, as of March 31, 2016, we have readily available liquidity of approximately $775 million, which consists of roughly $8 million of cash on hand and $767 million of net undrawn capacity on our revolving credit facilities. For the three months ended March 31, 2016, we reported operating cash flows of approximately $88 million, which reflects an increase of approximately $21 million from the first quarter 2015. It’s also worth noting that on April 7, 2016, we successfully amended all of our revolving credit facilities with unanimous support from our syndicate of lenders to allow for consummation of the transactions. As a result, we will be able to maintain the revolving credit facilities and the amounts under the revolving credit facilities close. In closing, we are well positioned to execute on our plans in 2016, including the Fortis acquisition of ITC, to benefit the customers and shareholders. Our continued solid performance in the first quarter serves as an important foundation for these efforts. At this time, we’d like to open the call to address questions from the investment community. Question-and-Answer Session Operator [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Your line is now open. Julien Dumoulin-Smith Hi, good morning. Joseph Welch Good morning, Julien. Julien Dumoulin-Smith So quick question here on the independent side. Obviously, we’ve got the GIC involved now as a JV partner. Would you expect to be able to keep that on a prospective basis here? Joseph Welch I think that’s a question you ought to ask GIC. The thing is that, as far as we’re concerned, this is – Fortis’ and GIC’s filing and you ITC and its shareholders were held harmless to that decision. Julien Dumoulin-Smith Got it. And then subsequently, you’ve commented in the past on FERC Order 1000, I’d be curious to get your latest thoughts on the SPP process. Obviously that had certain issues about allocations of points on the technical basis. I’d be curious to get your reaction and any broader implication? Joseph Welch No, I think that the SPP’s decision probably fits into the same line as the decisions that’s taken place in PJM, for instance that they awarded the points, I find it interesting that – from my standpoint, they’ve eliminated a lot of people based on conductor size and conductor design and we feel strongly, in our case, that our conductor sizing and design was 110% appropriate. But I could tell you this that on the whole process of a line that size and the amount of magnitude from an investment perspective, there was more money spent on bidding on it and more money spent on evaluating it than the whole line was worth. Julien Dumoulin-Smith Intriguing data point itself. And lastly, just turning back to bonus depreciation with the CMS complaint out there, I’d be curious how do you intend to treat results for this year given METC and actually potentially for the balance of the portfolio? Rejji Hayes Yes, Julien this is Rejji. Joe and I highlighted, we have assumed the election of bonus depreciation, both for the 2015 tax year as well as the 2016 tax year. And so as our Q is filed later today, you’ll see the details around that. It is flowing through the financials you see in the earnings release that hit the tape this morning and the estimate on a pre-tax basis for Q1 is about $5.4 million after-tax, about $3.2 million. And you can assume over the course of 2016, you’re probably just under $10 million and that’s for the full estimate for 2016 across all of the operating companies. So we are erring on the side of conservatism in our financials, but needless to say, we obviously requested a rehearing with the FERC on the IP&L matter. So we’ll see where we go from there. Julien Dumoulin-Smith Okay, great. Thank you. Rejji Hayes Thank you. Operator And our next question comes from Caroline Bone from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Caroline Bone Good morning. Just a follow-up on that bonus depreciation question. Thank you so much for the details on the impacts for the quarter and the full year, but I was just wondering if you could comment a little bit about how this might impact your more long-term growth expectations? Joseph Welch It really, when I look at growth, I don’t look at growth quite the same way you do, we’re going to be growing at the same rate that we’ve always grown, when you look at the earnings and the bonus depreciation, but the fact of the matter is that the bonus depreciation, if you elect it and generates a lot of cash and that gives us the ability to start to invest in other areas. Rejji Hayes Yes, exactly right. The only thing I would add to that, Caroline, is it clearly you’re going to have a financial impact on your net earnings, we talked of the 2016 impact and as I’m sure you well know and which the election works, it flows through our tariff as an increase in deferred tax liabilities that reduces rate base and you basically have to wear that financial impact for about 15 years. And so you do work for some time, but as Joe highlighted, clearly we’re still going to be investing in the system and trying to obviously improve the system to the benefit of customers. Caroline Bone All right. So I guess, I mean in terms of the cash benefit that you guys will see from bonus depreciation, did you get a lot of that in Q1 or should there be kind of a similar level of – just looking at the line, the deferred taxes line, in terms of the benefit for the rest of the quarters? Joseph Welch Yes. So technically, we have not received the cash benefit. So you probably noticed the income tax receivable in current assets of about $140 million, technically we’d be receiving that when we file our tax return for the 2015 tax year around mid-year. I think that’s the earliest time we can get that done. So we’re expecting that true cash inflow around mid-year, it is approximately $140 million for 2016. Caroline Bone All right, thanks so much. Joseph Welch Thank you. Operator [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Your line is now open. Praful Mehta Thank you. Hi guys, just quickly on that bonus depreciation again and I truly appreciate the point on the cash that you have now freed up. I guess if you do have this cash freed up in the long-term, as long as you can reinvest that cash at an accretive way in terms accretive asset or bid it out of CapEx, would that support – is that your thesis on why the growth rates remain the same? And secondly, does that change, now that you’re part of Fortis, if they could use that excess cash to grow some other part of the, I guess the combined platform, does that kind of change your perspective on how you think about bonus depreciation longer term, I guess? Joseph Welch It doesn’t change our perspective on how we view that at all. Rejji Hayes Yes, I think, Praful, the only thing I would add to that is from a capital deployment perspective, we’ll see what the options are at the time we receive the cash and clearly, assuming we get the transaction of the finish line post-closing, it will be discussion we have with the owners of the business, both Fortis and GIC as to what the most efficient use of that cash is, but needless to say it’s not going to be sitting in a money market account, earning 5 basis points. Praful Mehta And then just in terms of FERC 1000 and growth and development CapEx and the projects there, can you just briefly give us an update on how that is going and do you see any updates in terms of the growth projects more longer-term? Joseph Welch With regards to Order 1000? I think you could regard Order 1000 as a complete failure for the whole marketplace. In our case and you must not have been listening when we had some of our earnings calls in the past because I’ve directly highlighted that we’re not very focused on Order 1000 for the facts that I’ve just outlined. We have of Lake Erie Connector that we’re really focused on, we’ve announced that we’re doing work in Puerto Rico and Mexico. We continue to stay involved in Order 1000, but I think it’s a tree that doesn’t bear much fruit for anyone. Rejji Hayes And then Praful, this is Rejji, so the non-traditional development side, as we highlighted in our initial comments, we continue to make progress in the new Covert line which we should have in service this year and clearly the other opportunities, Lake Erie and some of the other non-traditional development opportunities as they continue to progress and we should have visibility on Lake Erie project in the latter half of this year. So continuing to push forward on that as well. Praful Mehta And I do pay attention, I do listen guys, it’s always just good to get a refresh, although I appreciate it. Joseph Welch You just wanted it refreshed? Praful Mehta Yes, always good to get your perspective again on FERC 1000, I guess. Joseph Welch Okay. Praful Mehta Thank you. Operator I’m showing no further questions. I will now like to turn the call back to Stephanie Amaimo for any further remarks. Stephanie Amaimo This concludes our call. Anyone wishing to hear the conference call, replay available through May 3, can access it by dialing 855-859-2056 toll free or 404-537-3406, passcode 83086632. This webcast to this event will also be archived on ITC website at itc-holdings.com. Thank you, everyone and have a great day. Operator Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today’s conference. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) 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