Tag Archives: jaso

Canadian Solar Beats Q1 Views; Yingli Ducks SunEd Bankruptcy Path

Canadian Solar ( CSIQ ) stock rocketed Wednesday on an across-the-board Q1 beat, as fellow solar panel-maker Yingli Green Energy Holding ( YGE ) announced it can’t repay 1.7 billion yuan ($263 million) in loans due Thursday. Yingli also reported fiscal Q4 sales and module shipments that missed Wall Street views, but better-than-expected losses. Canadian Solar stock, which touched an eight-month low Tuesday, was up 13% in morning trading Wednesday, near 17.50. Yingli stock, which has traded below 5 all year, was up a fraction in morning trading on the stock market today . IBD’s 20-company Energy-Solar industry group, which hit a three-year low Tuesday, was up 2.5% on Canadian Solar’s Q1 beat. And Chinese solar manufacturers JinkoSolar ( JKS ), Trina Solar ( TSL ) and JA Solar ( JASO ) were up 5%, 4% and 2.5%, respectively, on Yingli’s report. For Q1, Canadian Solar reported $721.4 million in sales and 39 cents earnings per share ex items, down a respective 16% and 62.5% vs. the year-earlier quarter, the fourth straight quarter of declines for both metrics. Still, both measures topped the consensus of 10 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for $663.7 million and 14 cents. Canadian Solar reported 1.198 gigawatts in module shipments, down 3%, but beating its own views for 1.085 GW to 1.135 GW. Current-quarter guidance for $710 million to $760 million would be up 15% at the midpoint and beats the consensus for $702.4 million. Module shipments were guided up 44% vs. the year-earlier quarter to 1.2 GW to 1.25 GW. Yingli Debts Under Negotiation Yingli said early Wednesday it’s negotiating with creditors to restructure its medium-term loans which mature Thursday. The company is also “negotiating privately with potential strategic investors” and considering selling assets to improve its debt-to-equity ratio. Potential asset sales include land-use rights for which subsidiary Hainan Yingli received 265 million yuan ($40.8 million) in 2015 and expects the balance of 470 million yuan $72.3 million) this year. The company has reported year-over-year quarterly losses since December 2011. Its loan negotiations follow a month after giant U.S. solar developer SunEdison filed for bankruptcy after technically defaulting — unless extensions were granted — on $725 million in second-lien loans. For its fiscal Q4 ended Dec. 31, Yingli reported $325.7 million in sales and a 71-cent per-share loss ex items. Sales fell 41% year over year, but losses shrank from a $4.90 per-share loss in the year-earlier quarter. The consensus modeled $372.3 million and a $1.48 per-share loss ex items. Yingli wrapped up fiscal 2015 with $1.54 billion in sales, down 26%, and a $1.98 per-share loss minus items vs. $12.10 in year-ago losses. Analysts expected $1.63 billion and a $31.30 per-share loss. On a year-over-year basis, module shipments for fiscal Q4 and the year fell 51% and 27%, respectively, to 460.4 megawatts and 2.45 GW. For the current quarter, Yingli guided to 480 MW to 510 MW in module shipments, down 34% at the midpoint. Wall Street view $414.4 million in fiscal Q1 sales, down 12%, and a $1.11 per-share loss ex items, shrinking from $3.60 in the year-earlier quarter.

SunEdison Bankruptcy May Torch $20.9 Mil Owed Trina Solar, JA Solar

SunEdison’s bankruptcy could incinerate $20.9 million owed to Chinese suppliers JA Solar ( JASO ) and Trina Solar ( TSL ), Credit Suisse analyst Patrick Jobin noted Monday, as the U.S. Bankruptcy Court granted SunEd some relief. Under SunEd’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy , filed Thursday, the solar developer will be allowed to pay employees wages and benefits, work on continuing projects and make “certain vendor payments,” SunEd said in a press release. But the ruling doesn’t specify whether SunEdison will make payments on about $322 million owed to trade suppliers, ranging from polysilicon production to cell/module suppliers. In total, SunEdison owed $11.7 billion as of Sept. 30, the company’s last financial filing. JA Solar and Trina Solar are among SunEd’s suppliers of solar cells and solar modules. SunEdison owes the duo $10.4 million and $10.5 million, respectively, Jobin wrote in a research report. “These are not trivial amounts, potentially impacting full-year earnings 6.6%-11.8% in a ‘worst case’ scenario of not receiving payments,” he wrote. He estimated Trina Solar’s earnings per share could drop nearly 9 cents to 32 cents from 41 cents, and JA Solar could lose 18 cents on its earnings, falling to 43 cents from 61 cents. JA Solar and Trina Solar stocks split Monday on Wall Street. JA Solar stock closed up a fraction, with Trina Solar stock slipping a fraction.

Glut Feeling: Chinese Solar Manufacturers Ignore ‘Bellwether’ Views

Chinese firms JA Solar ( JASO ), JinkoSolar ( JKS ) and Trina Solar ( TSL ) will force a solar panel glut in 2016, expanding capacity despite a 4.5-gigawatt demand cliff in Japan and the U.K., Credit Suisse analyst Patrick Jobin suggested Monday. Meanwhile, “bellwether” U.S. rooftop solar installers, including  SolarCity ( SCTY ), Sunrun ( RUN ) and Vivint Solar ( VSLR ), have cut their 2016 guidance by 0.6 GW, on average vs. initial expectations, Jobin wrote. European incentives and a Chinese boom oversupplied the market in 2012, causing prices to topple and manufacturers like SunPower ( SPWR ) to cut jobs. The upcoming glut puts higher-cost solar panel makers JA Solar and Trina Solar at heavy risk, Jobin says. On their Q4 earnings conference calls, all three acknowledged a potential 2016 supply glut, but “still announced capacity expansions, citing growth from efficiency improvements and higher capacity build outside China,” Jobin wrote in a research report. Jobin cut his price targets on JinkoSolar and Trina Solar to 40 from 42, and to 14 from 15, respectively. Midday, shares of Trina Solar and JinkoSolar were both down nearly 1% in early afternoon trading on the stock market today . JA Solar stock was up a fraction. Regulators in Japan and the U.K. recently announced cuts to solar feed-in-tariffs (FiT), key subsidies that triggered a surge in solar investment. In 2016, Jobin expects Japanese and U.K. demand to slow by a respective 2 GW and 2.5 GW. In the U.S., a much-lauded extension to the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) on solar installations pushed out installation of 1 GW to 2017, Jobin wrote. Globally, manufacturers see 10 GW in solar cell capacity expansions in 2016, vs. market demand for 6.1 GW. Demand is expected to slow to 11.5% growth in 2016 vs. 17% growth in 2015, Jobin wrote. Compounding that, manufacturers expect a 5%-10% decline in second-half 2016 average sales prices. “We anticipate the need for capacity expansion outside China, especially as the ITC extension improves the long-term demand outlook in the U.S., but we believe the timing and magnitude of new capacity builds may exacerbate oversupply and pressure margins,” he wrote. Among the three companies, Jobin prefers vertically-integrated JinkoSolar, which he says keeps internal production and outside sourcing costs low. But even a 1-cent per-watt decline in gross profits could reduce JinkoSolar, Trina Solar and JA Solar’s 2016 earnings by 33%, 38% and 58%, he said.