Tag Archives: japanese

Carry Trade’s Long Winning Streak Fades – For Now

By Brian Brugman and Sharat Kotikalpudi (click to enlarge) Currency carry trades haven’t worked so well lately. But instead of discarding them altogether, we think investors should just put them aside for now and focus on more promising return sources from other asset classes. For years, carry trades had delivered solid returns before running into their recent weak patch, and there are good reasons why they’ve faltered. But no strategy works all the time, and in years to come, carry trades may well start to pay off again. So, they still belong in investors’ multi-asset tool kits. How Currency Carry Trades Work Carry trades involve selling (or going short) developed-market (DM) currencies with low interest rates and buying (or going long) ones with high rates. A typical carry trade would work like this: an investor might borrow ¥1 million from a Japanese bank, where borrowing costs are set at 0.1%, and use the money to buy a bond priced in Australian dollars that yields 5.5%. By exploiting the gap in interest rates, the investor stands to make a profit of about 5.4%, if the currency exchange rate doesn’t change. But exchange rates do change, and that’s where the risk in carry trades comes from – the unexpected moves in exchange rates. In this scenario, a fall in the Australian dollar relative to the yen could eat into – or even offset – the gains from the difference in interest rates. Diminishing Returns Over the past several decades, the positive interest earned from carry trades has usually been large enough to outweigh modest exchange rate moves. But since 2009, currency carry strategies have resulted in flat or negative returns. (Display). What’s Gone Wrong? To start with, exchange rates have fluctuated more in recent years, because countries with relatively high interest rates have been cutting them. Central banks in Norway and Australia – both large commodity producers – cut rates this year to record lows to help cushion their economies from a sharp decline in the price of oil and other natural resources. When countries with high interest rates start to cut them, investor demand for their currencies declines, their currencies fall in value, and the gap between high and low interest rates narrows, making carry trades less profitable. Zero Interest Rates Upend Carry Strategies The global financial crisis created another handicap – zero interest rates. Because rates are already near zero in the US, Japan and the eurozone, going lower would require a move into negative territory, something most central banks are reluctant to allow. That effectively means those rates won’t fall any more. On the other hand, central banks in places like Australia still have plenty of room to cut rates, and currencies like the Australian dollar have plenty of room to decline in value. As a result, the interest rate gap between high-yielding currencies and low-yielding ones is closing more quickly than it would have if high- and low-rate central banks had been easing policy at the same time. That means carry trades will continue to struggle. Carry Will Recover – But Not Yet These dynamics will change when some of the central banks with zero or near-zero interest rates – the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England come to mind – start raising them. If they keep at it for several quarters, the US dollar and sterling could become attractive carry trade targets relative to currencies from weaker economies with lower interest rates, such as the euro. But this won’t happen overnight. The rise in US rates, once they start to go up, will probably be much more gradual than in past cycles. That means it will take time before DM currency carry trades start to match the sort of returns seen in years past. The Importance of Being Flexible In the meantime, we think investors should focus more of their active risk in fixed-income and equity strategies. Within currencies, we see better opportunities in emerging market carry. It’s easy to get hooked on strategies that deliver consistently strong returns, but focusing on just one can be dangerous. All strategies go through periods of low or negative returns, just as stocks, bonds and other asset classes do. That’s why it’s important to invest in a wide range of strategies – and to know which ones work best in which conditions. We think a nimble, integrated and dynamic multi-asset approach that taps many sources of risk and return is a better way to go. This way, investors can move quickly when a once profitable strategy like the currency carry trade starts to recover. The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Brian T. Brugman – Portfolio Manager – Multi-Asset Sharat Kotikalpudi – Quantitative Analyst – Dynamic Asset Allocation

ETFs And Stocks To Add On Solid Jobs Data

After weak back-to-back months of job growth in nearly two years, U.S. hiring numbers came in stronger than expected in October, easily dodging the impact of a global slowdown and a struggling manufacturing sector. The U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs in October, much above the market expectation of 180,000. This marks the strongest pace of a one-month jobs gain in 2015, and came from increased employment in the higher-paying sectors, in particular, professional and business services. Meanwhile, unemployment dropped to a new seven-year low to 5% from 5.1% in September, and average hourly wages accelerated nine cents to $25.20, bringing the year-over-year increase to 2.5% – the sharpest growth since July 2009. The robust data suggests that the U.S. economy is rebounding strongly after a lazy summer, and is continuing to outpace the other economies. Additionally, solid pay gains will increase consumer spending in the crucial holiday season, which will translate into stepped-up economic activities. Market Impact This has bolstered the chance of an interest rates hike, the first in almost a decade, in December. The jobs data even supports the comments of the FOMC meeting held in October and the latest Fed testimony that hinted at a December lift-off if the U.S. economy remains on track. As a result, the stock market has seen a big rotation in trade, and this trend will likely continue at least in the near term. This is especially true as investors are taking money out of the income-yielding sectors like utilities and REITs and putting them in the sectors like financials that are expected to benefit from the rising interest rates. On the other hand, yields on two-year Treasury bonds soared to the highest levels in more than five years, while the U.S. dollar climbed to a seven-month high against the basket of major currencies. Further, staffing stocks also have seen smooth trading. Given this, we have highlighted three ETFs and stocks that are the direct beneficiaries of the job gains and will likely see smooth trading in the days ahead. ETFs to Consider PowerShares DB USD Bull ETF (NYSEARCA: UUP ) A healing job market and the resultant improving economy will pull in more capital into the country and lead to appreciation of the U.S. dollar. UUP is the prime beneficiary of the rising dollar, as it offers exposure against a basket of six world currencies – the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. This is done by tracking the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index Futures Index Excess Return plus the interest income from the fund’s holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. In terms of holdings, UUP allocates nearly 58% in euro and 25.5% collectively in Japanese yen and British pound. The fund has so far managed an asset base of $994.9 million, while it sees an average daily volume of around 2.1 million shares. It charges 80 bps in total fees and expenses, and added 1.2% on the day following the jobs report. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or “Hold” rating, with a Medium risk outlook. Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBEF ) The strength in the greenback and global monetary easing is once again compelling investors to recycle their portfolio into the currency hedged ETFs. For those seeking exposure to the developed market with no currency risk, DBEF could be an intriguing pick. The fund follows the MSCI EAFE US Dollar Hedged Index and holds 916 securities in its basket, with none accounting for more than 1.98% share. However, it is skewed toward the financial sector, which makes up for one-fourth of the portfolio, while consumer discretionary, industrials, consumer staples and healthcare round off the top five with double-digit exposure each. Among countries, Japan takes the top spot at 22%, closely followed by United Kingdom (18%), France (10%) and Switzerland (10%). The ETF has AUM of $13.9 billion, and trades in solid volume of more than 3.9 million shares a day. It charges 35 bps in fees per year from investors, and gained 0.6% on the day. DBEF has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3, with a Medium risk outlook. iPath U.S. Treasury Steepener ETN (NASDAQ: STPP ) As yield rise, bonds and the related ETFs falls. But this product directly capitalizes on rising interest rates and performs better when the yield curve is rising. The ETN looks to follow the Barclays US Treasury 2Y/10Y Yield Curve Index, which delivers returns from the steepening of the yield curve through a notional rolling investment in U.S. Treasury note futures contracts. The fund takes a weighted long position in 2-year Treasury futures contracts and a weighted short position in 10-year Treasury futures contracts. STPP charges 0.75% in fees and expenses, while volume is light at around 1,000 shares a day. Additionally, it is an unpopular bond ETF, with AUM of just $2.5 million. The note surged 2.4% following the robust jobs data. Stocks to Consider In the stock world, the direct beneficiary of healthy hiring is the staffing industry. The industry bodes well at least in the near term, given the superb Zacks Industry Rank (in the top 5%) at the time of writing. Investors seeking to ride out the optimism could look at a few top-ranked stocks having a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy) with a Growth Style Score of B or better using the Zacks Stock Screener . Cross Country Healthcare Inc. (NASDAQ: CCRN ) Based in Boca Raton, Florida, Cross Country is a leading healthcare staffing services’ company which primarily focuses on providing nurse and allied, and physician staffing services and workforce solutions to the healthcare market. The stock has seen solid earnings estimate revisions of 7 cents for the current quarter over the past 30 days. Full-year earnings are expected to increase at a whopping rate of 286.1% versus the industry average of 19.4%, reflecting massive growth prospects. The stock rose 7.3% in Friday’s trading session, and currently has a Zacks Rank #1 with a Growth Style Score of “A”. Heidrick & Struggles International Inc. (NASDAQ: HSII ) Based in Chicago, Illinois, Heidrick & Struggles International is one of the leading global executive search firms. With years of experience in fulfilling clients’ leadership needs, it offers and conducts executive search services in every major business center in the world. The stock has seen upward earnings estimate revision by a couple of cents for the current quarter over the past one month. The company is expected to post earnings at a growth rate of 179.3% annually this year. HSII gained 3.7% on Friday, and has a Zacks Rank #1 with a Growth Style Score of “A”. TrueBlue Inc. (NYSE: TBI ) Based in Tacoma, Washington, TrueBlue is a leading provider of staffing, recruitment process outsourcing and managed services in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. This company has also seen rising estimates of four cents for the ongoing quarter, and expects to grow earnings at rate of 24.5% annually for the full year. The stock was up 3.7% in the Friday session, and has a Zacks Rank #2 with a Growth Style Score of ‘B’. Original Post

The Two Definitions Of Net-Nets: Net-Net Working Capital Versus Net Current Asset Value

Summary There are two definitions of net-nets: Buying stocks at below two-thirds of net current asset values (NCAV), and purchasing stocks trading under net-net working capital, a revalued version of NCAV. I offer some general principles and caveats that apply in the case of both low P/NCAV net-nets and low P/NNWC net-nets. My exclusive research service, Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks, provides watchlists and profiles of net-nets, net cash stocks, low P/B stocks and sum-of-the-parts discounts. Defining Net-Nets Two different “versions” of net-nets have evolved from the teachings of Benjamin Graham in his two books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” The first definition of net-nets involves comparing the net current asset values (current assets – total liabilities) (NCAV) per share of stocks against their share prices and buying them if the P/NCAV ratios are below two-thirds. The second definition of net-nets, more commonly known as net-net working capital (NNWC), makes an attempt at “revaluing” NCAV with the following adjustments: +100% of cash and short-term investments +75% of accounts receivables +50% of inventories -100% of all liabilities Both definitions of net-nets try to incorporate a margin of safety for the collectability risk of accounts receivables and the salability of inventories to a certain extent (the former through an arbitrary discount assigned to the net current asset value; the latter via specific discounts for accounts receivables and inventories). Most deep value net-net investors tend to use the first definition of net-nets, P/NCAV, in their search for potential investment candidates, as the screening for low P/NNWC stocks is more difficult in reality (compared with low P/NCAV stocks). Firstly, there is a greater likelihood of data services providers getting the calculation of accounts receivables wrong since a significant number of companies tend to lump accounts receivables and other receivables and may not provide the necessary disclosure to differentiate between them. If one incorporates all receivables (including non-operating receivables) in the calculation of low P/NNWC net-nets, he or she may be overstating the value of NNWC. Secondly, simply taking 100% of cash and short-term investments at their face values may not be the wisest thing to do since the market values of short-term investments will fluctuate and not all cash are unencumbered and excess in nature. Thirdly, the 25% and 50% discounts assigned to accounts receivables and inventories respectively may not be appropriate for all companies. For example, some companies may have customers which are MNCs or government-linked where the probability (and history) of defaults is close to zero, so even a 25% discount for accounts receivables is considered harsh. On the other hand, for companies which sell products with short lifecycles and shelf lives and are witnessing growing inventory days, a 50% discount for inventories may be simply too little. The second definition of net-nets, buying at less than two-thirds of NCAV tries to solve this problem by assigning a blanket 33% discount to all the current assets on the balance sheet. Stocks Trading At Low P/NCAV But High P/NNWC Continuing from the discussion above, it will be intuitive to conclude that stocks trading at low P/NCAV ratios but high P/NNWC are likely to have lower margins of safety since the “quality and quantity” of assets are questionable. I provide two examples of such stocks for illustrative purposes below. I focus on assessing the margin of safety for the stock (comparing net current asset value against net-net working capital) rather than the stock’s investability as a net-net. STR Holdings (NYSE: STRI ), a provider of encapsulants to the photovoltaic module industry, appears on the net current asset value screen as a net-net trading at 0.32 times P/NCAV, but it will not qualify as a net-net if one considers its P/NNWC ratio of 1.5. This is because STRI’s current assets include income tax receivable and other current assets amounting to $8.3 million and $4.7 million respectively, which I do not include in the calculation of NNWC. Hong Kong-listed Xinjiang Tianye Water Saving Irrigation System Co. ( OTC:XJGTF ) (840 HK), a company engaged in the design, manufacturing and sales of drip films, PVC/PE pipelines and drip assemblies used in water saving irrigation system, is valued by the market at a P/NCAV of 0.64 times, but its P/NNWC ratio exceeds 2 times. This is largely due to the fact that inventories and accounts receivable contribute 63% and of 16% of Xinjiang Tianye Water’s current assets respectively and are therefore heavily discounted based on the net-net working capital formulae. The full list of 75 U.S. and Asian low P/NCAV (less than 1) net-nets trading at high P/NNWC (greater than 1) ratios, which should warrant greater attention to their underlying asset values, is available exclusively for subscribers of my Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks exclusive research service in a separate bonus watchlist article. Assessing The Real Margin Of Safety For Net-Nets There are some general principles and caveats that apply in the assessment of the margins of safety for both low P/NCAV net-nets and low P/NNWC net-nets. One of them is the collectability risks relating to accounts receivables. Accounts receivables are near-cash in nature as long as they do not become bad debts i.e. customers default on payment. One can assess the collectability risk of accounts receivables for a specific stock in terms of the trend in accounts receivable days, the credit payment terms for customers, the credit strength of major customers, the adequacy of current provisions for bad debts and the potential for further write-downs on the receivables. Another point to take note of is the salability risk of inventories. Under normal conditions, the costs and selling prices of inventories are relatively stable. In reality, rising raw material costs, changing customer preferences and lack of bargaining power with suppliers and customers could lead to overstocking, loss-making finished products, and eventually write-downs on inventories. Similarly, cash and short-term investments are not always as “safe” as they appear to be. The accounting values of short-term investments such as stocks, bonds, hybrid securities, structured products are typically mark-to-market with huge volatility in their prices and values. In addition, not all of a company’s cash balances are unencumbered and excess in nature since some cash may be set aside for security deposits or working capital purposes. Also, if a net-net is loss-making, the market may be discounting the future cash burn into its share price. For readers interested in learning more about the background of net-nets and specific Asian names, they can refer to my articles on Hong Kong net-nets and Japanese net-nets here and here respectively. Note: Subscribers to my Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks get full access to the watchlists, profiles and idea write-ups of deep-value investment candidates and value traps, which include net-nets, net cash stocks, low P/B stocks and sum-of-the-parts discounts. Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.