Broad Security Freeze: Palo Alto Demand Stalls; Q2 Views Lukewarm
Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) stock tumbled Thursday after a Piper Jaffray analyst said that lackluster April demand and Q2 guidance from Check Point Software Technology ( CHKP ), FireEye ( FEYE ) and Imperva ( IMPV ) could signal a broad cybersecurity slowdown. IBD’s 26-company Computer Software-Security industry group is down 18.5% for the year after toppling 32% through Feb. 9, on bleak guidance for IT spending from firms like LinkedIn ( LNKD ) and Tableau Software ( DATA ). Barracuda Networks ( CUDA ), Check Point, FireEye and Fortinet ( FTNT ) recently missed full-year views. Imperva and Proofpoint ‘s ( PFPT ) Q2 outlooks lagged the consensus. Now, channel checks show April demand slowed, Piper Jaffray analyst Andrew Nowinski says. “The key takeaway from Q1 earnings season is that the security sector is starting to show signs of slowing based on the guidance that was provided for Q2 and fiscal 2016,” he wrote in a research report Thursday. Cybersecurity stocks toppled Thursday on Nowinski’s assessment. IBD’s security group was down 2% in morning trading on the stock market today , with Palo Alto Networks and FireEye stocks leading the deluge, down a respective 6% and 4%. Palo Alto Networks stock was at a two-month low, near 130. IBD’s Take: How does Palo Alto Networks stack up, and how does it compare to its rivals? Find out at IBD Stock Checkup But some analysts say Palo Alto Networks could beat guidance when it posts fiscal Q3 earnings on May 26. The company has topped the high-end of its outlook by an average 5.6% for the past 11 quarters. To do so again, Palo Alto would have to report $356 million in sales. The consensus of 43 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters models $339.4 million in April-quarter sales, which would be up 45% vs. the year-earlier quarter. But $549.5 million in July-quarter billings expectations, up 40%, might be too aggressive, Nowinski wrote. During the April quarter, some delays in large contracts likely hurt Palo Alto Networks, Nowinski wrote. “Most (resellers) thought it was simply due to a ‘digestion period’ where customers were still trying to integrate products they purchased in 2015,” he wrote. “The results definitely indicate demand slowed sequentially and also on a year-over-year basis.” Nowinski expects Palo Alto Networks to at least meet estimates, but he cut his price target on Palo Alto Networks stock to 180 from 208. He reiterated an outperform rating, but wrote that “this is the first quarter in at least two years where we picked up any sort of slowdown in Palo Alto’s demand trends.”