Tag Archives: housing

Top-Ranked ETFs To Tap India’s Growth Story

Finally, a slew of economic reforms including four rate cuts this year have started to pay off and stimulate growth in Asia’s third-largest economy. This is especially true as India picked up momentum with 7.4% growth in the second quarter (ending September). While this is far below the year-ago growth of 8.9%, it is up from 7% recorded in the first quarter and the market expectation of 7.3%, as per Reuters. Bright Spots A major boost to the economy came from solid progress in the manufacturing, mining and service sectors. Agriculture, industrial, automobiles and consumer durables are witnessing strong growth while investments are also showing signs of recovery. Additionally, current account deficit has narrowed and the currency has moved up significantly. Further, lower oil prices and rising consumer spending have added to economic strength. In particular, the current account deficit has narrowed sharply to around 1.3% of GDP in fiscal 2014-2015, below 1.7% in fiscal 2013-2014. Trade deficit in the first seven months of the current fiscal (April-October) contracted to $77.76 billion from $86.26 billion. Though inflation rose to 5% in October from 4.41% in September, it is expected to decline once the festival season ends. The central bank expects inflation to reach 6% by January 2016 and then moderate to 5% by March 2017. Given the positive developments, India has now become the world’s fastest-growing economy, outpacing China, and remains a bright spot given that most emerging economies are struggling to revamp growth. The Reserve Bank of India expects the country’s economy to grow 7.4% annually for fiscal 2015-2016 and the World Bank projects economic growth of 7.5% for the current fiscal year, followed by further acceleration to 7.8% in 2016-17 and 7.9% in 2017-18. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also sees robust growth prospects in India compared to the other emerging markets. It expects GDP growth to remain above 7% in the coming years fueled by more structural reforms. India ETFs to Buy Based on a speedy recovery and bright outlook, we recommend investors to buy India ETFs at least for the short term. For interested investors, we have found a number of top-ranked ETFs in the broad emerging Asia-Pacific space targeting India that have a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or ‘Buy’ rating and are thus expected to outperform in the upcoming months. Among these, the following five funds could be good choices to play in the coming months and have potentially superior weighting methodologies which could allow them to continue leading the emerging Asia-Pacific space in the months ahead. iShares MSCI India ETF (BATS: INDA ) This ETF follows the MSCI India Total Return Index and charges 68 bps in fees per year from investors. Holding 72 stocks in its basket, the fund is highly concentrated on the top two firms – Infosys (NYSE: INFY ) and Housing Development Finance Corp. ( OTC:HSDGY ) – that together make up for 20.2% of total assets. Other firms hold no more than 6.63% share. Further, the product is slightly tilted toward the information technology sector at 21.7% while financials, consumer staples, health care, and consumer discretionary round off the top five. INDA is the largest and popular ETF in this space with AUM of over $3.5 billion and average trading volume of more than 2 million shares a day. The fund is down 7.9% in the year-to-date time frame. WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSEARCA: EPI ) This product tracks the WisdomTree India Earnings Index, holding 238 profitable companies using an earnings-weighted methodology. Reliance Industries and Infosys occupy the top two positions with a combined 17.9% of assets while other firms hold less than 5.8% share. The fund is heavy on financials with one-fourth share, while energy and information technology also get double-digit allocation in the basket. The fund has amassed nearly $1.7 billion and trades in volume of more than 4.8 million shares a day. Expense ratio came in at 0.83%. The fund has lost about 9% over the trailing one year. iShares India 50 ETF (NASDAQ: INDY ) This ETF provides exposure to the largest 53 Indian stocks by tracking the CNX Nifty Index. It is pretty well spread out across components with none of the securities holding more than 7.73% of assets. With respect to sector holdings, financials takes the top spot at 26%, closely followed by information technology (16%), consumer discretionary (11%) and energy (10%). The product has managed assets worth $814.9 million and trades in good volume of nearly 320,000 million shares a day. It is the high cost choice in the space, charging 93 bps. The product shed 8.4% in the trailing one-year period. PowerShares India Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PIN ) This fund offers exposure to the basket of 50 stocks selected from the universe of the largest companies listed on two major Indian exchanges by tracking Indus India. The top two firms – Infosys and Reliance Industries – take double-digit exposure each while the other firms hold no more than 5.6% share. From a sector look, the fund is tilted toward energy and information technology, each accounting for over 20% share, followed by financials (12.1%) and health care (10.8%). The fund has amassed $431.7 million in its asset base and trades in solid volume of around 1.3 million shares a day on average. It charges a higher expense ratio of 85 bps and has lost 7.7% in the year-to-date timeframe. Market Vectors India Small-Cap Fund (NYSEARCA: SCIF ) This fund targets the small cap segment and tracks the Market Vectors India Small-Cap Index. In total, it holds 135 securities in its basket with none making up for more than 3.21% of assets. Here again, financials occupies the top position from a sector look at 28.3% while industrials, consumer discretionary, and information technology round off the next three spots. The fund has so far amassed $203.5 million in its asset base while charging 89 bps in annual fees. Volume is good, exchanging around 105,000 shares in hand a day. Bottom Line Given the current trends and favorable dynamics, India will likely get a solid boost. So a solid play on the country might be a good idea. This is especially true if investors take a closer look at the top-ranked ETFs in the space for excellent exposure and some outperformance in the coming months. Original Post

Typical Millennials Should Allocate At Least 25% Of Their Portfolio To This Specific Asset Class

Summary The typical millennial profile (post-college graduation) has human capital as their only asset, but is also effectively short both bonds (student debt) and residential real estate (renters). Given most millennials’ desire to own a home, their largest risk exposure, pre-home-ownership, is the risk of inflation in residential real estate, which can far exceed conventional CPI. Given this, we recommend a large portfolio exposure, indirectly leveraged if possible, to various components of the residential real estate sector, until the goal of home ownership is reached. We offer a portfolio solution to implement our recommendation including specific sectors and stocks. Along the way, we explore various other issues, such as setting your goals, repaying your student debt, and the best time to buy a home. Typical asset allocation weights for millennials The popular financial planning educator, Michael Kitces, on his blog Nerd’s Eye View , wrote about the importance of taking a holistic view of the client’s assets to maximize the risk/return profile. Particularly in your early years, human capital may be up to ten times larger than your financial capital. He cites a paper written by David Blanchett and Philip Straehl of Morningstar, ” No Portfolio Is An Island ” where they create a nice graphic, shown below, of how the typical holistic capital structure changes as you get older. We are interested in looking only at the millennial age group of 25-35 and we will add to this chart further by looking at both assets and liabilities, and actual and implied risk exposures. Typical profile of millennial has student debt and is a renter While not all millennials will fit into our “typical profile” we define the “typical millennial” as having graduated college – with the help of student loans, likely renting as opposed to owning or living with parents, and a desire to someday own a home. We provide the following statistics to support our “typical profile”: From the Institute for College Access & Success , “seven in 10 seniors (69%) who graduated from public and nonprofit colleges in 2014 had student loan debt, with an average of $28,950 per borrower.” From The National Association of Realtors, Generational Trend Report (2015) Exhibit 1-10, 59% of homebuyers age 34 and younger, rented an apartment or house prior to buying their home. In their study, Zillow found first-time homebuyers are renting for six years before buying, are older and less likely to be married than they were in the past, are buying increasingly expensive first homes and spending more relative to their incomes than any time in the past 40 years. Quoting from their press release , “Millennials are delaying all kinds of major life decisions, like getting married and having kids, so it makes sense that they would also delay buying a home,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. “We know millennials value home-ownership and want to buy. The next challenge will be figuring out how they can save for a down payment and qualify for a mortgage, especially while the rental market is so unaffordable all over the country. The last hurdle will be finding a home they like amidst very tight inventory, especially among starter homes.” While this describes the average millennial, there is nevertheless a significant difference in wealth levels among millennials. Courtesy of the Equifax Client Insights , in addition to average household assets, estimated household income varies from $55,000 for Mass Market, to $110,000 for Mass Affluent, to $289,000 for Affluent. Establish real exposures and risks Given this “typical profile” we can now begin to look closer at the real and implied risks as a starting point to understand the most suitable investments for the financial component of their portfolios. The chart below shows the expanded weights of the portfolio components to include the liabilities as well. (click to enlarge) The liabilities are shown as negative risk exposure, below the zero line. The student debt is easily understandable as a liability, but you may be wondering why renting your primary residence shows up as such a large liability. This point is the key idea to our whole thesis: Renting a home is very similar to being short residential real estate. Although technically you don’t have to buy the house, at some point in the future for most people, this is their goal, so the risks are effectively very similar. Put another way, being a renter exposes you to significant risk if the price of residential real estate goes higher. With this more comprehensive risk profile we can now begin to think more clearly about goals and planning. With most millennials wishing to own a home, their biggest exposure (excluding their human capital) until they reach this objective, is the risk of inflation in residential real estate, which can far exceed conventional CPI inflation from time-to-time, for many years. The first chart shows various home price indices together with the traditional Consumer Price Index. Notice that they do not move neatly together and that home price indices have been higher than inflation for most of the past fifteen years. People who live in a major metropolitan area like San Francisco, New York or Los Angeles will instinctively know this is the case without needing to look at a chart. (click to enlarge) This chart shows the year-over-year percentage change in the Home Price Index less the traditional Consumer Price Index. Unless we are going into a recession, home prices always seen to rise faster than CPI. (click to enlarge) So given your implied short position in residential real estate, and the worries of getting caught in a short squeeze, what should you do to achieve your objective of owning a home someday, and how does it fit into your big picture? Setting your bigger picture financial goals While many financial advisors or target date funds invest for retirement, thinking 40 years down the road, we believe it easier to set and visualize a 10-year goal than a 40-year goal. At age 25, it’s difficult to focus on retirement and you don’t have to – just focus on getting to the next level . We posit that a reasonable goal for millennials is to get to age 35 or 36 and accomplish the following: Be free of student debt Own a home Have an emergency fund of 6 months’ salary While the requirements to reach this goal will vary widely, in general they require two basic things, which you mostly have control over and should try to maximize: Maintain the income from your job, or similarly if you take the entrepreneurial route. Save at least 10% -15% of your earnings every year. The two biggest risks to reaching these goals are 1) losing your job/income and 2) inflation in residential real estate prices. Allocating your saving to various financial assets to reflect your goals and risk profile 1. Human Capital Don’t rely on your portfolio to protect your largest asset. Your portfolio is small in relation to your earnings at this stage so it will not have a meaningful impact if you lose your job. The study cited by Kitces involves hedging your human capital by investing in industries that are not correlated with the industry where you make a living. For example if you are in the tech industry, do you really want more exposure to tech stocks? While there is some merit to this later on in life, we think it not relevant in your early career stage. Losing your job could occur for a number of reasons beyond your control, but for the most part you are in control of this, which means keeping your skill set up to date, and make sure you are adding value to your employer – even if a recession does come along, employers will try hang on to their best people for as long as possible. 2. Real Estate The real estate inflation risks we are exposed to are out of our control, so we want to hedge this as closely as possible. We recommend a large exposure, indirectly leveraged if possible, specifically to various components of the residential real estate sector, until you own your home. We think that allocating at least 25% of your portfolio to an aggressive, inflation tilted, residential real estate portfolio of stocks makes sense. 3. Bonds Most advisors will not recommend you have much exposure to bonds at this point in your life, and we recommend you have exactly zero allocated to long bonds. You are already short bonds with your student loans so why own government bonds at 2-3% when you can pay down your student debt which earns you 5-6%. If you want to keep six months of emergency funds in short term 1-2 year government bonds that is fine. Given that real estate inflation is your biggest uncontrollable risk until you purchase your home, and given that being short bonds (i.e. borrowing) benefits from high inflation, we actually recommend paying down only the minimum necessary on your student loans, until you own your home. We also endorse getting some additional, indirect (meaning you are not borrowing directly) short exposure to bonds, by investing in companies with higher leverage ratios. It is more risky, but keep in mind you are merely balancing out your overall risk. A portfolio solution to implement our recommendations The portfolio solution we have created is designed specifically for millennials who are saving toward owning a home within a 7 to 10 year horizon. The holdings are designed to hedge against an implied short position in real estate created from renting. We invest in companies that are geared specifically toward the residential real estate market mostly through land, homebuilders, apartment REITS, realtors, and some exposure to home improvement retailers. The objective is to keep pace with or exceed the rate of appreciation in home prices. We identify a list of suitable stocks in these industries: Land – The Howard Hughes Corporation (NYSE: HHC ), iStar, Inc. (NYSE: STAR ), Tejon Ranch Co (NYSE: TRC ); Homebuilders – Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN ), Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE: TOL ), DR Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI ), Pulte Group, Inc. (NYSE: PHM ), KB Home (NYSE: KBH ), Cal Atlantic Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAA ); Realtors – Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z ), Realogy Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: RLGY ), RE/MAX Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: RMAX ); Home Improvement Retailers – The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD ), Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW ); Apartment REITS – Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT ), Apartment Investment and Management Company (NYSE: AIV ), Avalonbay Communities, Inc. (NYSE: AVB ). If you wish to create a passive portfolio with these, you can allocate say 20% to each category – there is no magic formula, although some sectors like land are more leveraged to changes in home prices, so you can adjust the mix to suit your risk profile. In our actively managed portfolio we analyze each stock to make sure we are buying them at reasonable valuations; since we are planning on holding this portfolio for up to 10 years, and the single biggest determinant of long term returns is the price that you bought it at – do your homework here. We also consider gaining additional indirect leverage via company debt, land exposure and stock beta. Remember, with inflation, debt is your friend. Actively managing your positions If you have a nice profit and perhaps enough to make your down payment, you may want to cash out and remember the purpose of why you invested in these stocks in the first place. Lastly, it’s probably better not to try and time the market; if we go into a recession, real estate stocks will get hurt like all other stocks. But remember the purpose of this portfolio is to hedge your future down payment on your home – so if your portfolio goes down, home prices will likely decline too, and you will benefit from being able to purchase your home at a cheaper price – your hedge will still have served its purpose. When is the best time to buy a home? Lastly, let’s look at a few factors to keep in mind around the timing of buying your home. The following graph plots the Housing Affordability Index, the National Home Price Index and the Renters CPI Index on the left hand scale, and the 10 Year Treasury rate on the right hand scale. (click to enlarge) Housing affordability index It is a function of income levels, home prices and interest rates. For a given level of income and interest rates, there is a limit on how high prices can go. It’s good to know where we are in this cycle; for example in 2007 you can see the huge spread between the home price index and the affordability index – unsustainable, as we know in hindsight. Currently, prices are almost back to where they were in 2007 but the affordability index is much better than in 2007, so don’t expect home prices to come crashing down like they did in 2008. Rental Inflation Rents seem go up steadily over time. Quite simply, this means you really should try to own your own house at some point. Is it better to buy when interest rates are high or low ? While it feels good to know you have locked in a low rate for 30 years, buying when rates are low is not necessarily the best time. For one thing, low rates imply that you will pay a much higher purchase price than when rates are high. It’s generally better to buy when rates are high and declining; your purchase prices will be lower (also your property taxes may be lower) and you may have the option to refinance your mortgage if rates go down plus your home value should increase with lower rates; if you buy when rates are low, you pay a higher price (and higher real estate taxes) but have no option to refinance at a better rate in the future and your home value may also decline when rates rise. Your income level The lower your income level, the more at risk you are to rising real estate prices and being priced out of both the home purchase and rental market, creating a greater sense of urgency to purchase your own home. Non-monetary considerations may trump everything else Sometimes the timing of home purchase will likely be driven more by family considerations, or the peace of mind and sense of security of owning a home. Conclusion Hopefully this article helps you to plan toward owning a home within the next ten years by looking at your balance sheet holistically.

Pinnacle West Capital’s (PNW) CEO Don Brandt on Q3 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (NYSE: PNW ) Q3 2015 Earnings Conference Call October 30, 2015 12:00 PM ET Executives Paul Mountain – Director, IR Don Brandt – Chairman, President and CEO Jim Hatfield – EVP and CFO Jeff Guldner – SVP, Public Policy, APS Mark Schiavoni – EVP and COO, APS Analysts Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse Greg Gordon – Evercore Ali Agha – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Michael Weinstein – UBS Brian Chin – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Charles Fishman – Morningstar Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates Operator Greetings, and welcome to the Pinnacle West Capital Corporation 2015 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Paul Mountain, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you sir, you may begin. Paul Mountain Thank you, Christine. I would like to thank everyone for participating in this conference call and Webcast to review our third quarter 2015 earnings, recent developments, and operating performance. Our speakers today will be our Chairman and CEO, Don Brandt, and our CFO, Jim Hatfield. Jeff Guldner, APS’s Senior Vice President of Public Policy and Mark Schiavoni, APS’s Chief Operating Officer, are also here with us. First, I need to cover a few details with you. The slides that we will using are available on our Investor Relations Web site, along with our earnings release and related information. Note that the slides contain reconciliations of certain non-GAAP financial information. Today’s comments and our slides contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations and the Company assumes no obligation to update these statements. Because actual results may differ materially from expectations, we caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements. Our third quarter Form 10-Q was filed this morning. Please refer to that document for forward-looking statements, cautionary language, as well as the risk factors and MD&A sections which identify risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our disclosures. A replay of this call will be available shortly on our Web site for the next 30 days. It will also be available by telephone through November 6th. I’ll now turn the call over to Don. Don Brandt Thank you, Paul and thank you all for joining us today. Pinnacle West delivered a solid quarter with several financial and operational highlights keeping us on pace with our guidance for the year and setting us up well for next year. The Board also approved the 5% dividend increase last week effective with the December dividend payment, continuing the predictable return of capital to our shareholders. Jim will discuss the financial results and guidance. Our operations team did an excellent job maintaining the fleet and the electrical grid again this summer. The Palo Verde Nuclear Generation Station performed well. Unit 2 entered its planned refilling outage on October 10th this outage marks an important milestone. It represents the completion of flex equipment installation at all three units. Flex addresses one of the main safety challenges at Fukushima the loss of cooling capability and electrical power resulting from a severe event. Flex short for diverse and flexible mitigation strategies is an industry wide initiative with site specific applicability, it relies on portable equipment to protect against even the most unlikely scenarios. The transmission distribution and customer service teams also performed well. Similar to last year we had a series of monsoon storms over the last few months 50,000 customers were without power during the worse storm. The vast majority were back on within 24 hours. Due to the storm damage our crones replaced 485 pools nearly twice a number from the 2014 storm season. August was particularly hot this year. We hit our 2015 load peak on Saturday August 15th after temperatures hit over 114 degrees for three consecutive days. This is the first time in modern era with air-conditioning that our peak has been on a Saturday. One data point worth noting is that when our customers were using the most energy at around 5 pm that day rooftop solar on our system was producing only 38% of its capacity, supplying 75 megawatts of the 7,031 megawatt load, since rooftop solar peaks around noon. However in stark contrast utility scale solar was producing 80% of its capacity supplying 140 megawatts of the load, because most utilities scaled panels are on trackers that move with the sun. Just a couple of hours later when our system load was still high rooftop solar production was at zero and the only solar production was coming from Solana our concentrated solar facility with thermal storage capabilities. This scenario was not unique to our peak lower day and highlights the importance of the electric grid at all hours of the day. Along with a robust and modern grid modernizing the rate structure is a necessary priority for which we have been advocating. Let me provide some perspective on how our recent regulatory fillings have evolved. Our priority remains clear we want to continue the dialogue on rate design with the objective of thoughtfully evaluating these policy issues ahead of the rate case application we plan to file in June of next year. The grid access towards filling we made on April 2nd was designed to take another step in this rate transition by increasing the fixed charge to $3 per KW or about $21 per month per solar customer. In August the Arizona Corporation Commission ordered to move forward with an evidentiary hearing on the issue the exact scope and timing of that process was to be determined they has another meeting. Subsequent to that decision we saw an unprecedented display of political theatre and character attacks by the rooftop solar lobby aimed at paralyzing the commission. Given the backdrop we offered an alternative to the commission in September to forgo of the request to increase the grid access charge and exchange for a more narrow hearing on the cost to serve customers with and without solar. In connection with this alternative we filed a summary of a recently concluded cost to service study on October 8th. This study used a methodology that has been tried, tested and validated in utility proceeding across the country using actual verifiable data. It concluded that each month APS incurs $67 to serve solar customers that those customers do not pay. This analysis credit solar customers for the measurable cost that APS avoids when a customer installs rooftop solar primarily reduce fuel costs. The commission discussed how to proceed at the open meeting last week. In the end they wanted to move forward with a single generic docket that will investigate a both the cost to service issue raised by APS and the value of solar. The procedural calendar would be determined soon by the commission staff. Although there has been a lot of noise around this issue we believe moving forward is critical and we will continue to work with the commission and key stakeholders in this proceeding. In addition to the regulatory proceedings we are also learning about the customer and grid impacts through our solar partner rooftop solar program. Our understanding in this area will better inform our efforts to create a modernized rate structure tailored to our customers’ energy needs. We’ve had a lot of interest in the process of signing up customers and installing rooftop systems. Let me know provide an update on a few other items related to our generation portfolio. Our utility scale program AZ Sun has two 10-megawatt projects in the Phoenix metro area come on line in September bringing the total program total to 170 megawatts. We will access a need for more utility scale solar through our resource planning process. We also retired Cholla unit 2 one of our core units as of October 1st in line with our announcement a year ago as part of a broader environmental plan for the Cholla site. Let me conclude by saying that we remain focused on delivering on our financial and operational commitments. We have a busy calendar over the next couple of years while the state addresses rate design modernization and we prepare for our rate case filling. We will remain steadfast to find solutions that benefit all of our customers. I’ll now turn the call over to Jim. Jim Hatfield Thank you, Don and welcome everybody. We had a solid third quarter as we benefitted from our continued cost management efforts and improvement in our customer sales. Today I’ll discuss the details of our third quarter financial results provide an update on the Arizona economy and review our financial outlook including introducing 2016 guidance. Slide 3 summarizes our GAAP net income and ongoing earnings. For the third quarter of 2015, we reported consolidated ongoing earnings of $357 million, or $2.30 per share, compared with ongoing earnings of $244 million, or $2.20 per share for the third quarter of 2014. Slide 4 outlines the variances in our quarterly ongoing earnings per share. I’ll highlight two primary drivers. Higher gross margin increased earnings by $0.28 per share. I’ll cover the drivers of our gross margin variance on the next slide. Going the other way higher depreciation and amortization expenses decreased earnings by $0.12 per share. Similar to the first half of this year the variance includes the absence of the 2014 Four Corners cost deferrals and related 2015 amortization of the deferrals and cost associated with the acquisition. D&A expenses were also higher due to additional plant service. Turning to Slide 5, I will cover a few of the key components of the net increase of $0.28 in gross margin. Higher usage by APS customers compared to the third quarter a year ago contributed $0.08 per share. Weather normalized retail kilowatt hour sales after the effects of energy efficiency, customer conservation and distributed generation increased 2.1% in the third quarter of 2015 versus 2014. Collectively the adjustment mechanism is continuing to add incremental growth to our gross margin as designed, contributing $0.17 per share primarily the Four Corners adjuster that went into effect on January 1. Offsetting Four Corners’ expenses are included in the other drivers, primarily D&A, which I mentioned earlier. The effect of weather variations increased earnings by $0.04 per share. This year’s third quarter was warmer or more favorable than normal, while the third quarter of 2014 was milder, or less favorable compared to normal conditions. As Don mentioned, August was particularly hot this year or for the first time since we added in Arkansas — we hit our peak on a weekend. As a reminder, both the O&M and gross margin variances exclude expenses related to the renewable energy standard, energy efficiency and similar regulatory programs, all of which are offset by comparable revenue amounts under adjustment mechanism. Slide 6 presents a look at the Arizona economy, and our fundamental growth outlook. Arizona’s economy continues to grow, much like it has in the past several quarters. Job growth in the third quarter in the Phoenix Metro area remained above the national average, as they have for the past 17 quarters. As seen in the upper panel of Slide 6, Metro Phoenix added jobs at a 2.8% year-over-year rate. This job growth is broad-based with the construction, healthcare, tourism, financial activity, business services and consumer service sectors, each adding jobs at a rate above 3%. Growth in consumer spending remains robust and expectations are improving for the housing market. Our expectation for the Metro Phoenix housing permits could be seen in the lower panel on Slide 6. The housing market is on track to record its best year since 2007 for both total permits and the single-family sector by itself. Total permits are up more than 12% this year and notably single family permit activity is up over 40%. Permit activity in the third quarter was the highest we’ve seen since the middle of 2007 and homeowners continue to report strong traffic in their sales offices. In summary, Metro Phoenix economy did grow fairly and is positioned for stronger growth in the next couple of years as it will act on the overbilled real estate market receipts into the past. As I have mentioned before, Arizona and Metro Phoenix remain attractive places to live and do business, especially as it is situated relative to the high-cost California market. 2015 is turning out to be better than 2014 in terms of job growth, income growth, consumer spending, and new construction. And we expect 2016 to be better than 2015. Reflecting the steady improvement in the economic conditions, APS’s retail customer base grew 1.3% compared with the third quarter of last year. We expect that this growth rate will gradually accelerate in response to economic growth trends I just discussed. Importantly, the long-term fundamentals supporting future population, job growth and economic development in Arizona appear to be in place. Finally, I will review our earnings guidance and financial outlook. We continue to expect Pinnacle West’s consolidated ongoing earnings for 2015 will be in the lower half of the range of $3.75 to $3.95 per share, based on the negative effects of weather through September. Year-to-date unfavorable weather through September has impacted earnings by approximately $0.08 per share versus normal conditions. We adjusted our 2015 customer growth down slightly to 1% to 2% from 1.5% to 2.5%, although our sales outlook hasn’t changed. We are introducing 2016 ongoing guidance of $3.90 to $4.10 per share which assumes the normal weather. The adjustment mechanics particularly transmission and LFCR along with modest sales growth are the key growth margin drivers. O&M is above trend in 2016 however, non-outage O&M spending remains flat in 2016 compared to 2015 with planned possible outages representing the increase year-over-year. This includes major planned outages at Four Corners and Cholla which occur roughly over six years. Separately the new lease terms related to the Palo Verde waste plant at Unit 2 that take effect January 1, 2015 offset plan and service impact and key depreciation and amortization relatively flat year-over-year. A complete list of the factors and assumptions underlying our guidance is included in our slides. Our rate based growth outlook remains 6% to 7% through 2018. We’ve included our updated rate based slide in the appendix. These estimates include bonus depreciation which we’re assuming will be extended for 2015 and 2016. And we continue to forecast that we will not need additional equity until 2017 at the early. Lastly as Don discussed the Board of Directors increased the indicated annual dividend last week by $0.12 per share or approximately 5% to $2.50 per share effective with the December payment. This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator we’ll now take questions. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Thank you. We’ll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Dan Eggers from Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question. Dan Eggers If we get to see an end of the 2016 guidance a little bit. I guess first question is you go back from the 1.5% to 2.5% customer growth number, given that reduction in inventory and revenue mix. Is there enough things now are coming online for next year that you can actually hit that numbers you guys look out and see what’s getting built? Jim Hatfield We do Dan. We see as we talk about home permits were up 78% in the August from the same month a year-ago. We’re seeing sales up 32% in [indiscernible] so we’re seeing a lot of activity in that housing market. Don Brandt And this is Don, I refer you if you do a search on azcentral.com Web site for the Arizona Republic and just a story that appeared on the 21st of October I just take a selective quote out of that but over the past two years approximately 11,000 building permits for single-family new homes have been issued annually and he said the expectation is that the number will reach 16,000 by year’s end. Dan Eggers And then on the O&M cost side for next year. The cost should be flat excluding the maintenance I guess what you said if we thought about what ’17 looks like how much of that extra maintenance gives us a way to just try and normalize that? Don Brandt Well don’t think ’17 will be as big as ’16 and when we look for rate case purposes we use a average of five years or so, so that all get blended out in the rate case. Dan Eggers The rate case will reflect that moving that with the ’17 numbers? Don Brandt Yes I mean we’ll get all of it because this is a sort of peak but we’ll get an average over several years as typically how they do it. Dan Eggers And then on the rate base forecast it includes another non depreciation act in the 18 rate case numbers now have a $400 million, what you guys do with the bonus depreciation cash and the activation company and the equity? Don Brandt Easy to fund CapEx, we’ll still be net negative cash from our fixed income securities to fund the CapEx but it does reduce our need. Jim Hatfield It will reduce our need for debt financing. Don Brandt Yes and we take bonus depreciations will be 70% of that reduction in CapEx the rest is really moving Ocotillo out to ’19 from ’18. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore. Please proceed with your question. Greg Gordon My math shows that — I think my math shows that on the updated rate case forecast that 390 to 410 basically should more or less reflect the 9.5% to 10% ROE band on parent equity in 2016? Don Brandt That’s correct, right. Greg Gordon So yes that’s consistent with the way you thought about in the past? Don Brandt Correct. Greg Gordon So to the extend we lined up with the low-end or to high-end of that range thinking about the drivers on Page 10. Obviously this year we’re more towards the lower half because weather was mild. Is it fair to assume that the midpoint of your gross margin guidance range just assumes just a normal weather? Don Brandt Yes it includes normal weather as well as we’ve those adjuster mechanisms two things you — the other thing you’ll see from the gross margin perspective we’ve the negative transmission adjuster in 2015 which will have a positive next year. So we get the cumulative effect of that as well. Greg Gordon I guess I’ll step back and then ask higher level more open ended question. What are the key two or three factors that would cause you to end up at 410 versus that would cause you to end up at 390 i.e. high end of the range versus low end as you think about managing risk in ’16? Don Brandt I’ll take the higher end of the guidance to reflect a little higher sales growth and we’re currently planning. That would be the big driver. Greg Gordon Okay. And you file a rate case when and how and when is the — what’s the statutory time limit for a decision? Don Brandt We will file June 1 of 2016 typically there was a 30 days efficiency and there is the last case we did in 10.5 we expect probably it will last goal longer with the rate design in there it’s the statutory four month timeline but and Christmas around as you get days of the hearings and so on. Greg Gordon So the goal would be to have rates in place for the summer of ’17 but that could slip? Jim Hatfield Yes. And the perfect word we will have it at July 1 what the issue in the case on rate design changes and so on that would be an optimistic scenario I think. Greg Gordon But isn’t that the reason why you are trying to get a lot of that discussion down now and the context of these proceedings that Don just discussed. Jim Hatfield Exactly Greg. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Ali Agha with SunTrust. Please proceed with your question. Ali Agha Don so do you want that the commission decided to have these hearings on the generic basis and I know you guys have pushed for them to be more specific and focused on the cost of service side and is there a concern that while they go through the generic process and then when the rate case comes you’ve got to go through this once again but with more specific numbers so at the end of the day how much realistically do you think this moves the ball forward given the generic measure of this discussion? Jim Hatfield I think it’s a new advanced the ball will be dealing with the not just generic number but our numbers specifically as will be other participants and Jeff Guldner sitting here next to me I think can explain on that far a little bit. Jeff Guldner Sure. And I remember this they said their value has sold the dockets which was up there with obviously would be a new port on a generic the cost of service study that we did is specific with us and so one of the things you would get in the generic proceeding is still some discussion of how do you apply cost allocation factors how do you sort it out cost to service issue and result those and move forward in the rate case with the given the commissioners policy options that are available to cost from the value side and the more of that we can work through ahead of the rate case the more productive that’s going to be when you get into the rate case process. Ali Agha And then secondly as strong was good to see the growth in weather normalized sales pick up this quarter at 2.1%. With customer growth at that 1.3% level was there anything specific to this quarter would the weather normalization not have worked perfectly the sense that your sales growth is actually greater than customer growth this quarter and normally as you said does that 50 to 100 basis point differential but you see so anything to explain why sales growth was strong than customer growth this quarter? Jeff Guldner I think the biggest thing Ali is sort of a weak comparison last year in the third quarter overall we have 1% sales growth year-to-date which would reflect the kind of customer growth we’re seeing currently. I think a lot of that two part of our we look at the we have top solar and EDE and a lot of this been confident it’s new and I think you are seeing a little more cost that consumer and those in the Phoenix marketplace. Ali Agha I see, okay. And then on a sort of the LTM basis based on the way you guys calculate ROE and I know that’s all book value when you talk about your targets. Can you tell us what is that ROE that you want over the LTM basis? Jeff Guldner I haven’t calculated that I’ll have to look at that. Ali Agha Okay. But to be clear on the ’16 outlook the range reflects at the lower end 9.5% again based on the book value calculation? Jeff Guldner Yes. Ali Agha And the high-end would be 10. Is that right? Jeff Guldner Yes. Ali Agha Thank you. Jeff Guldner Next question? Operator, next question? Christine? We have lost connection from the host just one moment please. Operator Ladies and gentlemen, I am sorry for the delay. Our next question will come from the line of Michael Weinstein with UBS. Please proceed with your question. Michael Weinstein Hi guys. Can you hear me okay? Hello? Oh! Boy. Operator Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by your conference will resume momentarily. Michael Weinstein Oh! Boy. Operator Ladies and gentlemen, again please stand by your conference will resume momentarily. Once again please stand by your conference will resume momentarily. Gentlemen, you are reconnected. And your next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein. Please proceed with your question. Michael Weinstein Hi, guys. Can you hear me okay? Hello? I am not hearing anybody, operator. Operator Gentlemen you are connected. Michael Weinstein Yes, can you guys hear me okay? Don Brandt Yes. Michael Weinstein Oh! There we go. All right. Don Brandt Okay. Michael Weinstein So my question has to do with the guidance for 2015. Just looking at you’ve reduced the retail customer growth a little bit by 0.5% but the sales volume is remaining the same. So that would sort of indicate that there has been an improvement in terms of energy efficiency effects, I guess less of an energy efficiency effect that you see in 2015. However, when you go forward to 2016 guidance, you have an increase in the customer growth rate but still the same sales rate, so that indicates the opposite. Just wondering what’s going on with energy efficiencies and asset management side? Don Brandt I Michael would caution you to look at any quarter and try to extract anything out of quarters, a quarter. I think we are pleasantly surprised by the sales growth year-to-date. I don’t think we necessarily expect laying that into ’16 guidance. Michael Weinstein Okay. And also just in terms of the rate cases filing. Is it true you guys are going to have to file or you are going to have to make purchases of new generating assets before you file the case. Is that right? Don Brandt We have no plans to purchase generation assets other than what we are billing at occupancy or which is a self built. Michael Weinstein Okay, so there is no potential for anything else, fairly probably you can see now? Don Brandt No we have some PPAs and other things rolling off and we will go out next year for sort of all resources RFP for sometime later this — probably later this decade, then we will see what where get at that point but we’re ways off from new generation at this point. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question. Brian Chin So with the revised rate base numbers including bonus depreciation, can you quantify out the impact of the bonus depreciation or give us some sense of how big that is relative to the prior forecast? Don Brandt Yes, bonus depreciation we expect to be over the two years about $250 million. We just think about that as ratably over those two years. Brian Chin Okay, excellent. And then with regards to the revised bonus depreciation numbers, can you give us an update on any potential needs for equity, I would assume that it reduces that since you are able to take the bonus depreciation and use that for further deployment of capital. But just revise us on what the equity financing needs are if any as we go to the next year? Don Brandt Yes, well, certainly the cash and bonus depreciation would minimize the need, if we need anything, we won’t do anything until after we get that outcome and next rate case. Brian Chin Okay, great. And then lastly, just what risk do you think there could be under the more narrowly tailored generic proceeding. Is it possible that any delays or extension of that proceeding could bleed into the timing of when you file the rate case? Is there a risk of the two issues kind of melting together? I guess it’s a little bit of a springboard question on earlier question I think that Ali asked? Jeff Guldner Brian it’s Jeff I don’t think it would affect the timing of the filing of the rate case. One of the issues that came up in the discussion a little while ago was we’ve requested that the information push to get that aside us in the April timeframe was ahead in the case. But the procedural conference is still coming out, if that leaves over that wouldn’t affect the filing, once you file the case you’ve got a fairly lengthy litigation process. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Charles Fishman with Morningstar. Pleas proceed with your question. Charles Fishman If I could go back to the rate base growth once again 2018, the 400 million decline in generation and distribution that was bonus depreciation and the delay of Ocotillo the $200 million decline in transmission is that all bonus depreciation or there a project is been delayed or canceled that I have forgotten about? Don Brandt No we’re constantly on ongoing basis moving capital from year-to-year so there is nothing substantial in terms of delay in big projects or anything like that. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question. Paul Ridzon Very quickly, you said you had 2.1% sales growth and that is after the impact of efficiency correct? Don Brandt Yes, and distributors and origin. Paul Ridzon What was the gross number? Don Brandt Little over three. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Michael Lapides Sorry to beat a little bit of a dead horse just want to make sure I understand though. Can you walk us through from your prior disclosures to today’s flight deck, the change in total expected rate basis for the forecast period and just two or three biggest drivers for that? There has been a lot 1C 2Cs and I want make sure I understand what’s going on here? Don Brandt Well about 70% of the change roughly is the impact of bonus depreciation, and significant amount of the other is just moving Ocotillo from our end service date of ’18 to 2019. Michael Lapides And the total change is $400 million or greater number? Don Brandt About $4 million. Michael Lapides Second when we think about 2017 O&M should we assume that it kind of gets back down in that year to something closer what you’ve guided to for 2015 or does it kind of stay at that elevated level that you’re going to see next year but that you recovering you’re expecting to get more recovery of that in rates? Don Brandt We’ve really not talked about any aspect of 2017 guidance Michael. Michael Lapides Is the 2016 increase in O&M viewed more as one time or viewed as recurring? Don Brandt Well I think it is — I would call it one time, and we do generation outage every year where it is based with significant overall at both quarters at 28 in the same year I could say that that number is elevated based on what we wouldn’t call it one time in any view. Michael Lapides And the case are going to filed in mid-’16 will that use a full year ’15 test year and what large if any known and measurables would be in there? Don Brandt We’ll try to let’s see what we had on the past which is the 2015 test year and any planned service 15-18 months then post patch your plan and there will be some things that are still under construction that won’t be done like the SCRs or Ocotillo allows them to recover some other mechanism. Michael Lapides Meaning you’re expecting to potentially get Ocotillo recovered in this even though Ocotillo is now not due online until 2019? Don Brandt No, we would not get Ocotillo in this rate case. Michael Lapides So this rate case is more about just managing lag and getting the FBRs in? Don Brandt I think this rate case is also a lot about the rate design issue which is how we align our 70% of fixed cost with only 10% of fixed revenue and try to get more alignment between cost and revenue. Operator Our next question comes from our Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please proceed with your question. Paul Patterson There was a court case in the Arizona Court of Appeal which overturned from the Arizona Corporate Commissions it was the case that didn’t involve you but in theory I guess there is some that are arguing that the solar access being out of the rate case could be — would it comply with the court of appeal ruling if you follow me. I am sure you guys are familiar with the case but whether — is this a new point that you have withdrawn your request or is there any risk if this I know the ACC is probably going to appeal it but if this decision were upheld is there any risk to you guys would respect to what would be the impact to you guys if it was upheld let me just ask it that way? Jeff Guldner So Paul this is Jeff Guldner. If you are referring that water company case involving infrastructure adjustor the commission have appealed that and if so court of appeals case they start review with the Arizona supreme court and with the case that what’s there was how the commission makes fair value findings which is somewhat unique that Arizona regulation how it makes their value findings in the context of adjustor mechanisms and things like that so we get them in rate cases we do typically fair value findings and provisions and almost everything that we do and so what I think folks are looking for right now is clarify some of the things that were in the court has appeals decision but it’s I don’t think that the supreme court is not yet excited whether to grant review and if they do I’m sure they will see mostly intelligence of state participating in that litigation. Paul Patterson Okay, right. But I guess what I’m wondering is if they grant review and I mean this ultimately is upheld where there would be any impact on what you guys have collected in riders or what have you with this access do you mean what would be — let me just ask you this way with reviewing impact on you guys when you look at the Arizona court of appeal’s decision what do you think the impact would be if we were up held? Jeff Guldner The part of the review on how you that to make fair value findings and those proceedings and I think most folks would expect the release to be prospective and so would be in highly to move forward with a different proceeding in terms of making fair value findings to which support whatever the court ultimately came out lift. We’ve had filed adjustors and one of the things that was mention that decision is a fuel adjustor which tracks expenses up and down fuel adjustors have been common in Arizona for decades and that opinion recognize with types of adjustors fine and as you get into different styles or different models for adjustor gets little more complicated and you guys figure out how you put the fair value piece it up. [Multiple Speakers] Paul Patterson So you guys have been fine with fuel adjustment that wanted to be something that would be impacted but would there be any other potential riders as something that we should think about as being potentially impacted or is it would you feel basically that you guys have the one that impacts that much. Is that what I’m getting at? Jeff Guldner Yes. We also look at all the riders and we look at how the fair value provisions and how we handle fair value in each of those cases and that litigated or implemented the rate cases and then if we have to make adjustments for the next rate case then we would. Operator We have no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments. Don Brandt Thank you, Christine. Thanks for joining us today. We apologize for the connection issues we had on the call. And we look forward to seeing most of you at EVI here in a couple of weeks. Thank you. Operator Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.