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The Costs Of Hedge Fund Crowding In Q3 2015

Analyzing Hedge Fund Sector Crowding Our edge comes from a central thesis: the most crowded stocks are those that contribute the most to hedge fund stock-specific volatility (volatility of alpha) . Furthermore, the direction of this alpha (positive or negative) is a leading indicator. A robust analysis of the AlphaBetaWorks Statistical Equity Risk Model allows us to identify stocks that are the highest contributors to stock-specific volatility for hedge funds in each sector. These are the most crowded stocks that stand to benefit the most from accumulation and stand to lose the most from liquidation. While a static crowding analysis using our risk model provides valuable insights, we go further by identifying Hedge Fund Aggregate Sector Alpha – the alpha (stock-specific performance) of aggregated hedge fund portfolios by sector. This makes the analysis dynamic: If Hedge Fund Aggregate Sector Alpha is trending up, capital is flowing into crowded stocks. Conversely, if it is trending down, capital is flowing out of crowded stocks – often abruptly. Yes, crowding is good at some times and bad at others. Further, Hedge Fund Aggregate Sector Alpha trends persist for months and years, providing advanced notice of losses. Importantly, crowded stocks hit hard by liquidations tend to mean-revert: the worst risk-adjusted performers often become attractive long opportunities. Hedge Fund Sector Aggregates We create aggregate portfolios of hedge fund positions in each sector. Each such sector portfolio is a Hedge Fund Sector Aggregate within which we identify the highest contributors to security-specific (residual) volatility (the most crowded stocks). This follows the approach of our earlier articles on hedge fund crowding . The Hedge Fund Sector Aggregate Alpha ( α Return , residual , or security-specific return ) measures hedge fund security selection performance in a sector. It is the return HF Sector Aggregate would have generated if markets had been flat. αReturn can indicate accumulations and liquidations. The AlphaBetaWorks Statistical Equity Risk Model, a proven tool for forecasting portfolio risk and performance , estimated factor exposures and residuals . Without an effective risk model, simplistic crowding analyses ignore the systematic and idiosyncratic exposures of positions and typically merely identify companies with the largest market capitalizations. Sectors with the Largest Losses from Hedge Fund Crowding During Q3 2015, hedge funds lost $4 billion to security selection in the five sectors below. Said another way: if hedge funds had simply invested passively with the same risk, their sector long equity portfolios would have made $4 billion more. The monthly losses are listed (in $millions) below: 7/31/2015 8/31/2015 9/30/2015 Total Other Consumer Services -101.16 -113.93 -312.84 -426.77 Oil and Gas Pipelines 472.21 -465.63 -10.29 -475.93 Specialty Chemicals -155.87 196.41 -730.73 -534.32 Oil Refining and Marketing 262.69 -167.15 -388.52 -555.67 Semiconductors -240.71 -1,422.70 -660.95 -2,083.65 The Semiconductor Sector was particularly painful for hedge funds in Q3 2015, which we examined in a previous article . Below we provide our data on three of the above sectors: historical Hedge Fund Sector Alpha and the most crowded names. Specialty Chemicals – Hedge Fund Alpha and Crowding Hedge Fund Specialty Chemicals Security Selection Performance Click to enlarge Historical Return from Security Selection of Hedge Fund Specialty Chemicals Sector Aggregate Hedge Fund Specialty Chemicals Crowding Click to enlarge Crowded Hedge Fund Specialty Chemicals Sector Bets The following table contains detailed data on these crowded holdings: Exposure (%) Net Exposure Share of Risk (%) HF Sector Aggr. Sector Aggr. % $mil Days of Trading (NYSE: PAH ) Platform Specialty Products Corp. 17.59 2.52 15.07 1,351.8 14.3 44.62 (NYSE: APD ) Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. 47.46 13.89 33.57 3,010.8 13.7 22.09 (NYSE: LYB ) LyondellBasell Industries NV 3.36 23.03 -19.67 -1,764.2 -5.9 14.04 (NASDAQ: GRBK ) Green Brick Partners, Inc. 2.99 0.25 2.74 245.7 79.7 10.58 (NYSE: GRA ) W. R. Grace & Co. 11.76 3.45 8.32 745.8 11.0 2.99 (NYSE: PX ) Praxair, Inc. 0.31 16.29 -15.98 -1,433.5 -5.9 2.21 (NYSE: AXLL ) Axiall Corporation 2.79 1.20 1.59 142.8 4.5 0.74 (NYSE: TROX ) Tronox Ltd. 1.80 0.45 1.35 121.2 14.2 0.36 (NYSE: ARG ) Airgas, Inc. 0.19 3.77 -3.59 -321.8 -4.1 0.33 (NASDAQ: SIAL ) Sigma-Aldrich Corporation 3.32 7.88 -4.56 -408.6 -2.3 0.28 (NYSE: NEU ) NewMarket Corporation 0.23 2.61 -2.38 -213.4 -6.0 0.26 (NYSE: VHI ) Valhi, Inc. 0.02 0.91 -0.88 -79.2 -240.2 0.26 (NYSE: CYT ) Cytec Industries Inc. 0.07 2.04 -1.97 -176.5 -2.0 0.18 (NYSE: ASH ) Ashland Inc. 1.66 3.89 -2.23 -200.0 -2.4 0.18 (NYSE: POL ) PolyOne Corporation 0.19 1.65 -1.46 -131.2 -4.3 0.10 (NASDAQ: TANH ) Tantech Holdings Ltd. 0.00 0.19 -0.19 -17.3 -2.7 0.09 (NASDAQ: BCPC ) Balchem Corporation 0.00 0.82 -0.82 -73.4 -8.8 0.07 (NYSE: CBM ) Cambrex Corporation 0.06 0.65 -0.59 -53.2 -2.1 0.06 (NYSE: CMP ) Compass Minerals International, Inc. 0.15 1.31 -1.16 -104.0 -4.8 0.06 … Other Positions 0.29 0.51 Total 100.00 Oil Refining and Marketing – Hedge Fund Alpha and Crowding Hedge Fund Oil Refining and Marketing Security Selection Performance Click to enlarge Historical Return from Security Selection of Hedge Fund Oil Refining and Marketing Sector Aggregate Hedge Fund Oil Refining and Marketing Crowding Click to enlarge Crowded Hedge Fund Oil Refining and Marketing Sector Bets The following table contains detailed data on these crowded holdings: Exposure (%) Net Exposure Share of Risk (%) HF Sector Aggr. Sector Aggr. % $mil Days of Trading (NYSE: MWE ) MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. 18.23 5.31 12.92 848.9 6.1 31.86 (NYSE: VLO ) Valero Energy Corporation 0.38 16.06 -15.68 -1,030.4 -2.7 23.34 (NYSE: TSO ) Tesoro Corporation 14.32 5.36 8.96 589.0 1.4 12.74 (NYSE: TRGP ) Targa Resources Corp. 8.99 2.52 6.47 425.3 8.7 7.76 (NYSE: PSX ) Phillips 66 9.21 21.86 -12.66 -831.8 -2.8 6.03 (NYSE: PBF ) PBF Energy, Inc. Class A 6.80 1.23 5.56 365.6 7.8 5.84 (NYSE: NGLS ) Targa Resources Partners LP 8.74 3.52 5.21 342.7 6.2 2.84 (NYSE: WGP ) Western Gas Equity Partners LP 3.58 6.63 -3.05 -200.5 -7.4 2.06 (NYSE: MPC ) Marathon Petroleum Corporation 9.59 14.34 -4.75 -312.0 -1.1 1.81 (NYSE: TLLP ) Tesoro Logistics LP 5.12 2.33 2.79 183.1 3.5 1.45 (NYSE: HFC ) HollyFrontier Corporation 1.29 4.22 -2.93 -192.3 -1.4 1.11 (NYSE: WNR ) Western Refining, Inc. 0.21 2.10 -1.89 -124.5 -1.4 0.61 (NYSE: IOC ) Interoil Corporation 0.66 1.50 -0.84 -55.3 -6.9 0.49 (NYSE: GEL ) Genesis Energy, L.P. 4.35 2.20 2.15 141.1 6.2 0.34 (NYSE: ENBL ) Enable Midstream Partners LP 0.39 1.73 -1.34 -88.2 -31.6 0.33 (NYSE: EMES ) Emerge Energy Services LP 0.01 0.43 -0.42 -27.6 -6.1 0.29 (NYSE: DK ) Delek US Holdings, Inc. 0.00 1.07 -1.07 -70.0 -1.2 0.26 (NYSE: WNRL ) Western Refining Logistics, LP 1.57 0.36 1.21 79.5 15.0 0.24 (NYSE: ALJ ) Alon USA Energy, Inc. 0.00 0.67 -0.67 -44.1 -2.3 0.18 (NYSE: NS ) NuStar Energy L.P. 3.50 2.33 1.17 76.9 1.4 0.15 … Other Positions 0.07 0.28 Total Semiconductors – Hedge Fund Alpha and Crowding Hedge Fund Semiconductor Security Selection Performance Click to enlarge Historical Return from Security Selection of Hedge Fund Semiconductors Sector Aggregate Given the magnitude of recent semiconductor sector liquidations and the record of mean-reversions, the following crowded hedge fund semiconductor bets may now be especially attractive: Hedge Fund Semiconductor Crowding Click to enlarge Crowded Hedge Fund Semiconductors Sector Bets The following table contains detailed data on these crowded holdings: Exposure (%) Net Exposure Share of Risk (%) HF Sector Aggr. Sector Aggr. % $mil Days of Trading (NYSE: SUNE ) SunEdison, Inc. 33.18 1.82 31.36 2,550.9 9.6 86.72 (NASDAQ: MU ) Micron Technology, Inc. 18.87 3.95 14.93 1,214.1 2.9 8.85 (NASDAQ: INTC ) Intel Corporation 3.72 27.94 -24.22 -1,970.2 -1.6 2.01 (NASDAQ: SEMI ) SunEdison Semiconductor, Inc. 3.22 0.14 3.08 250.7 52.5 0.38 (NASDAQ: SWKS ) Skyworks Solutions, Inc. 0.04 3.85 -3.82 -310.4 -0.9 0.38 (NASDAQ: TXN ) Texas Instruments Incorporated 0.09 10.38 -10.28 -836.6 -1.9 0.32 (NASDAQ: NXPI ) NXP Semiconductors NV 7.90 4.41 3.49 283.6 1.0 0.29 (NASDAQ: AVGO ) Avago Technologies Limited 3.29 6.69 -3.40 -276.3 -0.5 0.18 (NYSE: FSL ) Freescale Semiconductor Inc 0.02 2.40 -2.38 -193.5 -5.2 0.17 (NASDAQ: ON ) ON Semiconductor Corporation 3.39 0.97 2.42 196.6 4.3 0.08 (NASDAQ: MLNX ) Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. 1.89 0.43 1.45 118.3 0.7 0.08 (NASDAQ: BRCM ) Broadcom Corporation Class A 7.81 5.51 2.30 187.2 0.5 0.07 (NYSE: MX ) MagnaChip Semiconductor Corporation 0.92 0.05 0.87 70.9 31.2 0.07 (NASDAQ: ADI ) Analog Devices, Inc. 0.05 3.90 -3.85 -312.9 -1.7 0.06 (NASDAQ: QRVO ) Qorvo, Inc. 1.13 2.32 -1.19 -96.7 -1.1 0.06 (NASDAQ: NVDA ) NVIDIA Corporation 0.58 2.10 -1.51 -123.1 -0.4 0.04 (0Q19) CEVA, Inc. 1.25 0.08 1.17 95.5 30.7 0.04 (NASDAQ: MRVL ) Marvell Technology Group Ltd. 0.04 1.32 -1.28 -104.4 -0.9 0.03 (NASDAQ: MXIM ) Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. 0.34 1.90 -1.56 -126.9 -1.7 0.02 (NYSE: MXL ) MaxLinear, Inc. Class A 0.74 0.12 0.62 50.6 2.8 0.02 … Other Positions 0.36 0.13 Total Conclusions Data on the crowded names and their alpha can reduce losses and provide profitable investment opportunities. A robust and predictive equity risk model is necessary to accurately identify hedge fund crowding. Fund followers and allocators aware of crowding can gain new insights into portfolio risk, manager skill, and fund differentiation. Crowded bets tend to mean-revert following liquidation: the worst risk-adjusted performers in a sector become the best. The information herein is not represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete or timely. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Copyright © 2012-2016, AlphaBetaWorks, a division of Alpha Beta Analytics, LLC. All rights reserved. Content may not be republished without express written consent.

WisdomTree Makes Early Splash In 2016

Despite market volatility, 2016 looks to be a big year for WisdomTree (NASDAQ: WETF ). The New Year’s confetti had hardly been cleared when the firm announced it had completed its acquisition of GreenHaven Commodity Funds, the managing owner of the GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index Fund (NYSEARCA: GCC ) and GreenHaven Coal Services. The news came on January 4, the first business day of 2016, and it was quickly followed up by another big announcement: the firm’s launch of a four-fund suite of dynamic currency-hedged ETFs: WisdomTree Dynamic Currency Hedged Europe Equity Fund (BATS: DDEZ ) WisdomTree Dynamic Currency Hedged Japan Equity Fund (BATS: DDJP ) WisdomTree Dynamic Currency Hedged International Equity Fund (BATS: DDWM ) WisdomTree Dynamic Currency Hedged International SmallCap Equity Fund (BATS: DDLS ) “WisdomTree’s dynamic currency hedged strategy limits the need to make a call on currency by utilizing a data-driven, rules-based approach that assesses the picture of developed market currencies relative to the U.S. dollar on a monthly basis,” said WisdomTree Director of Research Jeremy Schwartz, in a statement. “This offers the potential for an attractive strategic and baseline exposure for long-term portfolios.” Move Into Commodities The GreenHaven acquisition also involves alternative investment funds. In addition to the GCC ETF, WisdomTree’s acquisition of GreenHaven Coal Services also includes the GreenHaven Coal Fund (NYSEARCA: TONS ), which GreenHaven Coal Services sponsors. GreenHaven has been retained by WisdomTree as the sub-advisor to both funds. “The acquisition of these ETFs represents WisdomTree’s first foray into the commodities space and exemplifies our commitment to growing an innovative, differentiated and diversified product platform,” said WisdomTree CEO Jonathan Steinberg. “Today in the U.S. alone we offer 88 ETFs across traditional equities and currency-hedged equities, domestic and international fixed income, currencies, and alternatives strategies including commodities.” GCC returned -18.99% in 2015, a very tough year for commodities, ranking in the top 12% of its Morningstar category. TONS launched in February 2015 and returned -20.90% in the final six months of 2015, but that was good enough for it to rank in the top 1% of its category. The two funds have respective net-expense ratios of 0.85% and 1.23%. Three of the new currency hedged equity ETFs – DDEZ, DDJP, and DDLS – have net-expense ratios of 0.43%. DDWM has a net-expense ratio of 0.35%. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Jason Seagraves contributed to this article.

3 Utility Mutual Funds For Steady Returns Amid Volatility

These are trying times for the markets, with most of the benchmarks striving to finish their trading days in the green and the mutual funds are not being spared either. While most of the sectors have been failing to attract investors’ attentions since the start of this year, the safe-haven appeal of the utility sector has bucked the trend to some extent. So buying utility mutual funds with strong fundamentals could help investors avoid this negative tone in a less risky manner. According to Lipper, net outflows for all equity funds came in at around $12 billion for the week ending Jan 6, indicating the market downturn. As a result, the demand for safe haven securities – such as those from the utility sector – is growing among investors. The broader S&P 500 utility sector – the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLU ) – has attracted nearly $294.6 million of net inflow so far this year. Though the sector is only up 0.3% in the year-to-date frame, it is the only sector among major S&P 500 domains that finished in the positive territory during this period. Meanwhile, the sector gained nearly 2.6% in the past one-month period when the other major sectors registered a minimum loss of 4%. Before suggesting the appropriate utility mutual funds for your portfolio, let’s find out what is propelling the demand of securities from the utility sector. Why Utility? Concerns over China-led global growth issues and a persistent slump in oil prices dampened investor sentiment from the start of 2016, and have dragged down the major benchmarks into negative territory. Rising expectations about the lift-off of Iranian sanctions, which happened yesterday, dragged down the energy sector, which in turn weighed on the benchmarks on Friday. While WTI crude plunged by 6.1% to a 12-year low level of $29.42 per barrel, Brent crude declined nearly 0.1% to $31.01 a barrel. The VOLATILITY S&P 500 (VIX) – an important indicator of volatility level – jumped 12.2% on Friday and surged 6.3% in the year-to-date frame. In this volatile environment, the utility sector provides safety to investors due to its higher immunity against market peaks and troughs. Though the utility sector, which requires a high level of debt, was initially affected by the rate hike, its safe haven appeal gradually offset the impact. Also, after declining significantly in 2015, utility stocks are now offering attractive entry points. Meanwhile, the sector is also popular among investors for generally offering stable and healthy yields. Additionally, demand for essential services such as those provided by utilities is believed to remain unchanged even during difficult times. This is also an important factor behind the stability of the sector even during a market downturn. 3 Mutual Funds to Buy Given the safety and yields that are latent in the sector under discussion, below we present 3 utility mutual funds that carry either a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy). We expect the funds to outperform its peers in the future. Remember, the goal of the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank is to guide investors to identify the potential winners and losers. Unlike most of the fund-rating systems, the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank is not just focused on past performance, but also on the likely future success of the fund. These funds have encouraging 4-week, and 3- and 5-year annualized returns. The minimum initial investment is within $5000. These funds also have a low expense ratio. American Century Utilities Fund Investor (MUTF: BULIX ) invests a large portion of its assets in equities related to the utility industry. BULIX’s portfolio is constructed on qualitative and quantitative management techniques. In the quantitative process, stocks are ranked on their growth and valuation features. BULIX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1. It boasts a 4-week return of 3.2%. The 3- and 5-year annualized returns are 9.2% and 8.6%, respectively. The annual expense ratio of 0.67% is significantly lower than the category average of 1.25%. BULIX has a yield of 2.87%. Franklin Utilities Fund A (MUTF: FKUTX ) seeks capital appreciation and current income. FKUTX invests a large chunk of its assets in common stocks of public utilities that are involved in providing electricity, natural gas, water, and communications services. FKUTX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. It has a 4-week return of 4.1%. The 3- and 5-year annualized returns are 9.2% and 10.5%, respectively. The annual expense ratio of 0.73% is also lower than the category average. FKUTX provides a yield of 2.77%. Fidelity Telecom and Utilities (MUTF: FIUIX ) focuses on acquiring common stocks, investing heavily in telecom and utility companies. FIUIX may purchase both foreign and domestic securities. FIUIX utilizes fundamental analysis to select its holdings, studying both firm-specific and broader market and economic factors. FIUIX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. It boasts a 4-week return of 3.3%. The 3- and 5-year annualized returns are a respective 7.7% and 9.2%. The annual expense ratio of 0.79% is lower than the category average. FIUIX provides a yield of 2.06%. Original Post