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Apple, Facebook Among Top Technology Investment Choices

Facebook ( FB ) received honors as the top Internet investment idea by Credit Suisse, followed by Amazon.com ( AMZN ) and Alphabet ( GOOGL ). In tech hardware, Apple ( AAPL ) is a favorite. Credit Suisse based its picks on a six- to 12-month time horizon. Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju says Facebook can drive long-term revenue growth without a material lift in ad loads. Near-term ad growth drivers include Facebook’s video- and photo-sharing site Instagram and its premium video, which brings in high ad rates. He says Wall Street’s projections for Facebook are too conservative and underestimate the long-term moneymaking potential of other products, including Messenger and WhatsApp. Ju has a price target on Facebook stock of 135. Facebook stock was down 2.5%, near 110, in afternoon trading in the stock market today . Amazon, Ju’s No. 2 investment, should provide upside to estimates, he says, in part from ongoing strength in e-commerce. Ju has a price target on Amazon of 800. Amazon stock was up a fraction Friday afternoon, near 593. Ju expects Alphabet to narrow the monetization gap between mobile and desktop, while increasing ad loads. He also expects Alphabet to get strong growth from YouTube and its Google Play app store. His price target on Alphabet stock is 930. Alphabet stock was down a fraction Friday afternoon, near 756. Regarding Apple, Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha rates it a top investment idea, saying multiple growth drivers include its strength with the iPhone, iPad and Mac computer and greater adoption of the iOS ecosystem. Another is Apple’s commitment to cash distributions. Garcha has a price target on Apple of 150. Apple stock was trading above 128, up a fraction, Friday afternoon.

Yahoo Extends Bidding Deadline, But Will Google And Verizon Bite?

Yahoo ( YHOO ) has pushed back the deadline for bids on the company by one week, to April 18 rather than this coming Monday, according to media reports. “We’ll see who bids — and, more to the point, who gets passed through to the next round. It’s a little like the ‘Hunger Games,’ except you get to live and then have to overhaul the Silicon Valley Internet giant,” Re/Code wrote  Friday. Verizon Communications ( VZ ) is said to be planning to make a  first-round bid for Yahoo’s Web business and is also planning to bid for the company’s holdings in Yahoo Japan to help sweeten its offer, Bloomberg said. Google, the main division of Alphabet ( GOOGL ), is also reportedly considering a bid for Yahoo’s core business. One-time potential suitors including AT&T ( ATT ) and Comcast ( CMCSA ) have decided against bidding, the Bloomberg report said.  Microsoft ( MSFT ), which failed with a hostile bid for Yahoo in 2008, also won’t bid, according to the report. Time ( TIME ); Japan’s SoftBank ( SFTBY ), the majority owner of Yahoo Japan; and several private equity firms also are kicking the tires, reports Bloomberg. Verizon and its subsidiary AOL are working with at least three financial advisers on its bid, the report said. Re/Code said earlier this week that documents Yahoo provided to potential bidders predict the Web portal’s 2016 revenue will drop by close to 15% and its earnings by more than 20%. Yahoo’s inability to fully embrace the transition to mobile has meant that “usage and monetisation are moving to areas where Yahoo is unable to follow,” wrote Edison Investment Research analyst Richard Windsor in a research note Friday. Windsor said that Yahoo has been “buying traffic in order to prop up the popularity of its online properties. Effectively, Yahoo is masking the declines in its revenue by buying revenue-generating traffic from other websites and services. This means that the revenue genuinely generated by Yahoo’s properties will fall by 14% this year to $3.6 billion.” Yahoo has not commented on the reports. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect EPS ex items to fall 10% this year, to 53 cents, with revenue falling 9% to $4.52 billion. Yahoo has recently implemented layoffs and begun the process of selling itself and spinning off its hefty stake in China e-commerce giant Alibaba Group ( BABA ). It’s also in the midst of a proxy fight initiated by activist investor Starboard Value seeking to oust Yahoo’s entire board and CEO Marissa Mayer. Yahoo’s revenue growth has stalled for nearly a decade as ad dollars continue to slip away to rivals, including Facebook ( FB ), Netflix ( NFLX ), Google and others, as well as high-profile startups Snapchat and Pinterest. Yahoo stock was down more than 1% in midday trading in the stock market today , near 36. Verizon stock was up a fraction.

Economists Adding Up At Amazon.com, Microsoft, Google

As the tech industry gets ever more data-driven, a “Ph.D. in economics” is more often becoming a job requirement in the sector. Established giants and newer tech firms alike are enlisting economists to help with many crucial tasks. Companies that employ economists include Amazon.com ( AMZN ), Airbnb, IBM ( IBM ), Facebook ( FB ), Microsoft ( MSFT ), eBay ( EBAY ), Yahoo ( YHOO ) and Uber. Hal Varian was a consultant for Google (now part of Alphabet ( GOOGL )) going back to 2002, becoming its chief economist in 2007. And the trend has grown, as tech economists say there’s more demand and appreciation for the work they do. Hal Varian, Google chief economist. Amazon is a leading employer of economists, with “dozens” aboard, says Susan Athey, a professor of the economics of technology at Stanford Graduate School of Business and a longtime consultant to Microsoft. Amazon didn’t respond to a request for comment. Athey says Microsoft is another company with “at least a dozen” economists on staff. She knows of nearly 100 economists employed by tech firms, the big majority joining after 2010. Tech company economists must combine theory with practical application. “We use economic principles and economic theory, but we also use experiments, statistical data and other aspects of the real world to build systems that work and will stand the test of time,” said Preston McAfee, chief economist at Microsoft. These systems can address fundamental business questions, such as setting prices, as well as challenges brought about or exacerbated by the rapid rate of innovation in the tech industry. As firms expand, economists are increasingly working on public policy issues, including privacy issues and intellectual property topics. Economists Must Speak Both Tech And Non-Tech Economists have to analyze large amounts of data. Much of their value to tech firms is in helping to connect the engineering side with the business side. “Economists are trained in the intuition and goals of business, but they are also comfortable with data, statistics and the technical aspects of running a business,” Athey said. “A successful economist is multilingual.” A tech firm today might hire an economist when they struggle to navigate a new marketplace. “You might confront a business problem where you realize there’s no off-the-shelf HBS (Harvard Business School) case study or McKinsey rule of thumb you can apply to manage your unique marketplace,” Athey said. “It’s really an economics research project to figure out the business practices to operate the new platform.” Economists have helped Uber develop its “surge” pricing algorithm — basically, when demand exceeds supply, Uber’s prices rise — and have led Airbnb to offer professional photography services for hosts. While the platforms are new, these problems come down to supply and demand. One of the biggest and most famous contributions of a tech economist is Varian’s work on AdWords. As his first assignment, Varian helped Google develop its auction-based approach to selling ads, still by far the company’s largest source of revenue. Preston McAfee For economists, the fast-paced environment and variety of challenges are among the big draws of working in the tech industry. “I’m in this business because I don’t like routine. I relish having new challenges,” said McAfee. McAfee had been a professor for 28 years before leaving academia to join the tech industry in 2007 as chief economist at Yahoo. At Microsoft, McAfee is working to develop a new business model to sell technology developed by research units directly to customers, among various other tasks. “It’s a new take on a classic research model, and I’m happy to be a part of it,” he said. Google Economist’s One-Year Gig Now In Year 14 Varian had intended to stay at Google for a year while on leave from the University of California, Berkeley, but the excitement of the work at Google drew him away from academia. “We’ve got a great environment here where you have the infrastructure for developing projects and products,” said Varian. “Most of the things we’ve done have been of considerable interest to the company.” Besides AdWords, his other key tasks at Google included helping with its unusual “Dutch auction” style of IPO in 2004, designed to open the process to everyone and not just to favored clients of underwriters. He also collaborates with Google X, the company’s “moonshot” R&D factory, to help develop some of the business models. Michael Bailey, economics research manager at Facebook, looks at academia and tech as a difference between breadth and depth. “In industry, you are working on a larger variety of problems and projects and often need to take more multidisciplinary approaches so you are effectively building more breadth,” Bailey told IBD via email. Bailey, who joined Facebook directly after finishing his Ph.D., said his team is growing and that he expects the tech industry to continue hiring economists at a fast pace. Varian agrees. “A lot of people have developed an appreciation for the kind of economic analysis we do,” he said. The interest is mutual. Within economics, the community of people who study the high-tech economy has grown from a very small number to hundreds across academia, business and government over the last 10 years, Varian says. “We’re developing a new field of practicing economics in the real world,” said Microsoft’s McAfee. “Some of our big successes have been in auctions and pricing, but there are many more of those to come. And I think that’s a very cool thing to be a part of.”