Reversal Of Fortune For Gold & Silver Funds?
Gold started off 2015 with a bang as it became even more of a safe haven as a result of an increase in currency volatility, uncertainty over Greece’s future in the eurozone and expected quantitative easing in Europe. However, the gains fizzled out as gold prices again dropped on strong U.S jobs. Following which, gold prices fell to new six-week lows as equities recovered on hopes that Greece would work out a deal with its creditors. The demand for yellow metal returned at the start of the second quarter on disappointing economic data and a firming dollar. A weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions emanating from the Saudi Arabia-led coalition’s attack on Houthi rebels helped gold move up. Again, early this month, rate hike expectations had dragged the price of gold to a six-week low. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery had dropped to an intraday low of $1,168.40 a troy ounce, a level not seen since March 19. Thus, volatility cannot be ruled out and may continue so as the Fed keeps the guessing game alive on the timing of rate hikes and economic data continues to be mixed. On the other hand, silver has a high usage in industrial activities with about 50% of the total demand coming from industrial applications. With China, the biggest industrial fabricator after the U.S., faltering on manufacturing activities, silver might continue to suffer big time in the coming days. The white metal seems a more volatile option than the yellow metal, probably due to its low price point. As a result, silver prices are often hit harder than gold when things are against precious metal investing. Nonetheless for mutual funds, the Gold and Silver mutual funds from the Precious Metals category have been enjoying strong gains this year. A number of top Zacks ranked mutual funds from the sector have been able to reverse. Gold, Silver Price Forecast There are contradictory views about the course of gold and silver prices. In mid-April, expectations of rate hike had led to a group of analysts slashing the gold and silver prices this year. Separately, we also have bullish views. A poll conducted by Reuters having 38 analysts chopped the media forecast for gold to $1,209 an ounce in 2015 from a previous $1,234 an ounce projection. Median forecast for silver was down to $16.70 an ounce from a previous $17.20 forecast for 2015. Separately, Mitsubishi Materials Corporation believes investors may witness another decline in prices before the consolidation and recovery arrives. They believe gold will gain in the second quarter. Mitsubishi predicts gold prices may average $1,180 per ounce in the second quarter and $1,210 per ounce in 2015. Prices may also go up as much as $1,360 per ounce. While rates may be hiked in September or October, a further postponement will drive gold prices higher. Mutual Funds Reverse Losing Trend Precious metals mutual funds have been able to reverse losses so far this year. Against losses over the last 1, 3 and even 5-year periods, the following funds carry either a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2 (Buy) as we expect the funds to outperform its peers in the future. Remember, the goal of the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank is to guide investors to identify potential winners and losers. Unlike most of the fund-rating systems, the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank is not just focused on past performance, but the likely future success of the fund. U.S. Global Investors Gold & Precious Metals (MUTF: USERX ) seeks capital appreciation over the long run and protection from monetary instability and inflation. USERX invests a large share of its assets in equity and related securities of those companies whose primary operations are related to mining, fabrication, processing, marketing or distribution of precious metals including gold and silver among others. U.S. Global Investors Gold & Precious Metals currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. USERX has gained 16.5% year to date, against losses of 10.3%, 16.5% and 14.8% over the last 1, 3 and 5-year periods. However, the annual expense ratio of 1.88% is higher than the category average of 1.40%. Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio (MUTF: FSAGX ) invests heavily in companies whose principal operations are related to gold as well as in gold bullion or coins. A maximum of 25% of its assets are invested in precious metals via a wholly owned subsidiary. FSAGX invests mostly in firms involved in exploration, mining, processing, or dealing in gold, or to a lesser degree, in silver and other precious metals. Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1. FSAGX has gained 11.9% year to date, against losses of 13%, 18.2% and 15.3% over the last 1, 3 and 5-year periods. The annual expense ratio of 0.90% is lower than the category average of 1.40%. American Century Global Gold Investor (MUTF: BGEIX ) invests in securities of global companies whose operations are related to gold or other precious metals. Investments are made with the purpose of attaining growth in capital and dividends by investing mostly in companies which are involved in the processing, mining, fabricating and distributing gold or other precious metals. American Century Global Gold Investor currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1. BGEIX has gained 11.5% year to date, against losses of 13.6%, 17.9% and 15% over the last 1, 3 and 5-year periods. The annual expense ratio of 0.67% is lower than the category average of 1.40%. Gabelli Gold AAA (MUTF: GOLDX ) seeks growth of capital over the long term. GOLDX invests a lion’s share of its assets in companies involved in operations related to gold and gold bullion. It invests in value stocks of companies having impressive growth potential. Gabelli Gold AAA may invest a major share of its assets in foreign companies which also include developed and emerging economies. Gabelli Gold AAA currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. GOLDX has gained 12.5% year to date, against losses of 9.2%, 14.6% and 12.2% over the last 1, 3 and 5-year periods. However, the annual expense ratio of 1.58% is higher than the category average of 1.40%. USAA Precious Metals and Minerals (MUTF: USAGX ) seeks protection against inflation and long-term capital growth. USAGX invests a majority of its assets in domestic and foreign companies with primary operations in the precious metals sector. USAA Precious Metals and Minerals currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. USAGX has gained 11% year to date, against losses of 11.8%, 18.4% and 15.5% over the last 1, 3 and 5-year periods. The annual expense ratio of 1.24% is lower than the category average of 1.40%. Original Post