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6 Ways China Can Ruin Your Investments… And 1 Reason To Buy

China is the world’s second-largest economy in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), just next to the US. It has the highest population in the world and several manufacturing firms opt to set up shop there due to its cheap labor and supply materials. See more China used to enjoy double-digit growth over the past decades but last year, its growth slowed to 6.9% – the lowest in 25 years. Its stock market jumped by 150% in one year, but plummeted by 30% in just a few weeks and opened 2016 by falling another 7%. The International Monetary Fund projected that the economy’s decline will continue toward 2018, followed by a gradual recovery. I touched on this topic in my post in February: 2015-in-review-the-year-volatility-returned . And now, here are six ways the Asian giant’s slowdown can hurt investors. Beijing’s demand for oil will fall. China’s industrial production will fall as a result of declining factory activity. This will further add downward pressure to the price of oil, decimating profits and capital spending for oil firms listed on US exchanges. China’s demand for energy is one of the most important factors that drive the price of crude oil. In January, New York Stock Exchange-listed Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM ) slashed its forecast on China’s energy-demand growth toward 2025. Read more here Credit markets will be spooked . Chinese firms weighed by a ton of debt will default on their payments, spooking creditors, which will spike interest rates and ultimately drive the valuation of risk assets lower. China is the US’ largest creditor, accounting for around one-fifth of the total US treasury securities outstanding. Currencies will be in turmoil. Concerns over the health of China’s economy have already pushed capital away from its shores, pushing the yuan lower. This was only stopped by government intervention such as capital controls and a fixed exchange rate. Although the yuan is mainly traded on the mainland and is strictly supervised by the central bank, its offshore counterpart can be accessed by anyone. The onshore yuan is expected to continue its depreciation against the US dollar, hastening capital outflows and boosting demand for overseas assets. A weakening yuan amid a strengthening greenback could also increase political friction ahead of November 8 US Presidential elections. Currencies related to the Chinese economy will also experience the same fate. These include the Japanese Yen, the Korean Won and other emerging-market currencies. Investors may also opt to park their cash in safe government bonds or debts with low risk of default. Chinese imports of US goods will decline. An uncertain outlook on domestic demand will convince Chinese consumers to hold off on buying, especially US goods. China serves as the US’ biggest import partner, whose 2014 imports reached $466.75 billion or around 16.4% of the total import of the U.S. In comparison, the Asian country is also the US’ third largest export partner, just next to Canada and Mexico. Export goods and services amounted to $123.67 billion as of 2014, accounting for around 5.3% of total US exports. This means the trade balance of the U.S. vis-à-vis China is negative. A part of the deficit is funded by capital flow coming from China. A drop in Chinese consumer spending will hurt US exports, and if the US manufacturers failed to shift their product exports to other markets, this could result in a temporary decline in the US GDP. A two-percentage point decline in the growth of Chinese domestic demand growth translates into a 0.3-percantage point dip in the US GDP growth rate in 2015 and 2016, according to an estimate from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). China may sell US Treasuries for stimulus. As a possible option in its stimulus program, the Chinese government may decide to sell US Treasuries that it has bought, driving treasury prices lower, yields and ultimately interest rates higher. Similar to Number 3, higher rates may result in a collapse in valuations of risk assets such as stocks. American unemployment rate may rise. US companies with significant exposure to the Chinese market will likely suffer from shrinking domestic demand in China. Shareholders and employees of American companies that derive majority of their revenues from China may also be affected. Some firms may consider cutting costs to lift profits, resulting in layoffs and higher unemployment rates. Despite these… The one reason to buy stocks despite the possibility of a hard landing in China is the Chinese government’s wherewithal. In a short span of time, it has blocked the exit of foreign capital, fixed exchange rates, and pacified financial markets, including stocks, currencies and properties. An added bonus is the fact that the US is the second biggest oil importer with around 7.2 million barrels daily as of April 2015. With oil prices falling due to a dim outlook on China’s GDP, trade balance deficit is affected in a positive way because of a decline in as the US’ cost to import oil. In summary: A slowdown in the world’s second biggest economy can hurt your investments because there will be lower demand for oil, creditors will be spooked, currencies will be in turmoil, there will be weaker demand for US goods, and interest rates and unemployment may go up. But on a positive note, the Chinese government has immediately taken measures to pacify financial markets, and the negative effects are offset by falling oil prices.

Commercial Real Estate May Help Provide A Smoother Ride On The Road To Your Investment Goals

By Jennifer Perkins, Portfolio Manager, Principal Real Estate Investors Much hasn’t changed since the start of the year! Financial markets have recovered somewhat, but are still volatile due to geopolitical concerns, and declining oil and commodity prices have also impacted stock prices and economic growth. Meanwhile, the chase for yield in a low interest environment still continues in fixed-income markets. With an eye on the road ahead, investors are hoping for a smoother and less stressful ride to meet their investment goals. The vehicle that could get them there is commercial real estate! This is the second in a series of four blog posts highlighting some compelling reasons why we believe many investors should include private – also referred to as direct-owned – commercial real estate in their investment portfolios. While these reasons are not new, market volatility, changing market dynamics, and the potential of lower long-term return expectations raise an opportunity to reiterate the case for considering the asset class for inclusion into your portfolio. Compelling reasons to include private commercial real estate: Adds portfolio diversification. May aid in dampening volatility, potentially increasing portfolio total risk-adjusted return. A source of potential income. A possible defense against unexpected inflation. Just to recap, my last blog post discussed why private commercial real estate hasn’t historically conformed to similar whipsaw behavior the equity market was experiencing at the start of 2016, potentially allowing for private commercial real estate to add true diversification to an investment portfolio. This blog post expands upon Reason 2: Private commercial real estate may aid in dampening volatility and increases the potential for improving total portfolio returns adjusted for risk. As an investor in private commercial real estate, you are buying units of ownership of office buildings, industrial buildings, apartment buildings, retail centers, and even hotels. The buildings comprising a larger portfolio are acquired through private transactions between a willing buyer and seller, specific to individual properties. Investing in tangible properties influenced by space market fundamentals (meaning tenant demand and available supply) versus investor sentiment likely helps to dampen volatility. Unlike Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), private commercial real estate is not influenced by fractional ownership trading, which occurs in public markets on a public exchange. Values of private commercial real estate are also supported by in-place contractual leases, typically having meaningful duration, that help drive a steady and fairly predictable stream of income for investors of core, occupied commercial real estate. Investor return requirements on this current income, as well as total holding period returns, are driven by spreads over risk-free rates (Treasurys). Such tenant demand, available supply, contractual lease terms, and investor return requirements don’t dramatically change each and every day, thereby helping to create the potential for a return pattern with lower volatility or variability over an investment period. Over the past 10 years, the ride or return pattern experienced when investing in stocks, bonds, and private commercial real estate has been notably different (see Exhibit A). The return pattern for commercial real estate has been far smoother compared to stocks and bonds. By including an allocation to commercial real estate in an investment portfolio, the ride over the investment period could be smoother, with less turbulence. Click to enlarge Indexed to 100 as of 31st March, 2016; Source: 500 Data (Bloomberg), Investment Grade Corps (Barclays), CRE Private Equity (NFI-ODCE EW); It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. A smoother expected ride also creates the potential for increased total portfolio returns when adjusted for risk. Private commercial real estate could offer a strong income (current) return (historically 70-80% of total return) as well as the potential for appreciation (or depreciation). Exhibit B shows the effects of increased exposure to private commercial real estate has produced a slight increase to total portfolio returns, but most notably, lowered the risk, or volatility, of those returns over the 10-year time period. Therefore, the inclusion of private commercial real estate within an investment portfolio has the potential to increase total portfolio return per unit of risk. Click to enlarge Click to enlarge Click to enlarge Source: S&P 500 Data (Bloomberg), Investment Grade Corps (Barclays), CRE Private Equity (NFI-ODCE EW) In my next blog post, I will discuss Reason 3: Private Commercial Real Estate is a potential source of durable income ; another compelling reason to consider including commercial real estate as part of an investment portfolio. Stay tuned and enjoy the ride! — 1 Percentage of risk shown is the annualized standard deviation of index returns and is a measure of return volatility. 2 Annualized holding period total returns divided by standard deviation of returns over equivalent period. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past index performance is not indicative of future return.

ETF Deathwatch For May 2016: List Jumps To 450

The quantity of exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”) and exchange-traded noted (“ETNs”) continues to zoom higher. There are now 450 products on the list, and the growth trajectory is on a path to surpass 500 by the end of the year. For May, there are 26 new names joining the list and 11 coming off. Only seven of the removals were the result of improved health – the other four died and lost their listings. The current membership consists of 342 ETFs and 108 ETNs. Further segmentation of the ETF population reveals that 41 are actively managed funds, 151 have smart-beta labels, and the remaining 150 are traditional capitalization-weighted ETFs. The surge of currency-hedged ETF introductions of the past two years continues to be problematic for the industry. The brief nine-month surge of the U.S. dollar in late 2014 and early 2015 generated a slew of currency-hedged ETF launches that continues to this day. However, with the dollar’s decline over the past 14 months, these funds have been at a performance disadvantage. As a result, they are failing to attract new assets, losing some of the assets they had, and ending up here on ETF Deathwatch. This month, six of the additions are currency-hedged ETFs. Twenty-six funds went the entire month of April without a trade, and 269 did not trade on the last day of the month. Additionally, six products have yet to record their first trade of 2016. It remains a mystery why some of these products exist and why the exchanges allow them to have a listing. The NYSE did take action against one ETN issued by Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB ) in April. As outlined in ETF Stats for April , the NYSE suspended trading and delisted DB Commodity Long ETN (former ticker DPU) because its assets fell below $400,000. However, DB left shareholders holding the bag because it has no intention of automatically liquidating the ETNs and returning money to shareholders. Adding insult to injury, the notes do not mature for another 22 years. If owners are not willing to wait that long, then they will have to pursue the monthly round-lot redemption process or a sale in the over-the-counter markets. Keep this in mind before buying one of the 39 other DB-sponsored products that are currently on Deathwatch. The average asset level of products on ETF Deathwatch increased from $6.6 million to $6.8 million, and the quantity of products with less than $2 million fell from 98 to 96. The average age increased from 46.4 to 46.8 months, and the number of products more than five years of age surged from 148 to 177. The driving force behind the huge jump in five-year-old products on the list is that unloved family of iPath “Pure Beta” ETFs have now been on the market that long. Despite the lack of investor interest in these ETNs, Barclays continues to sponsor them, and the NYSE continues to collect a listing fee. Here is the Complete List of 450 ETFs and ETNs on ETF Deathwatch for May 2016 compiled using the objective ETF Deathwatch Criteria . The 26 ETFs and ETNs added to ETF Deathwatch for May: AlphaMark Actively Managed Small Cap (NASDAQ: SMCP ) CSOP China CSI 300 A-H Dynamic (NYSEARCA: HAHA ) CSOP MSCI China A International Hedged (NYSEARCA: CNHX ) Deutsche X-trackers CSI 300 China A-Shares Hedged Equity (NYSEARCA: ASHX ) ELEMENTS Rogers ICI Energy ETN (NYSEARCA: RJN ) ETRACS 2x Leveraged Long Wells Fargo BDC Series B ETN (NYSEMKT: LBDC ) ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN Series B (NYSEARCA: MRRL ) ETRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Series B ETN (NYSEARCA: UCIB ) Guggenheim MSCI Emerging Market Equal Country Wtd (NYSEARCA: EWEM ) iShares Currency Hedged MSCI South Korea (NYSEARCA: HEWY ) John Hancock Multifactor Healthcare (NYSEARCA: JHMH ) Morgan Stanley Cushing MLP High Income ETN (NYSEARCA: MLPY ) PowerShares Developed EuroPacific Hedged Low Volatility (NYSEARCA: FXEP ) PowerShares Dynamic Networking (NYSEARCA: PXQ ) PowerShares Japan Currency Hedged Low Volatility (NYSEARCA: FXJP ) PowerShares S&P 500 Momentum (NYSEARCA: SPMO ) PowerShares S&P 500 Value (NYSEARCA: SPVU ) PowerShares Zacks Micro Cap (NYSEARCA: PZI ) RBC Yorkville MLP Distribution Growth Leaders Liquid PR ETN (NYSEARCA: YGRO ) Reaves Utilities (NASDAQ: UTES ) SPDR MSCI China A Shares IMI (NYSEARCA: XINA ) The Restaurant ETF (NASDAQ: BITE ) VanEck Vectors Solar Energy (NYSEARCA: KWT ) WisdomTree BofA ML HY Bond Zero Duration (NASDAQ: HYZD ) WisdomTree Europe Local Recovery (BATS: EZR ) WisdomTree Global ex-U.S. Hedged Real Estate (BATS: HDRW ) The 7 ETPs removed from ETF Deathwatch due to improved health: Barclays Return on Disability ETN (NYSEARCA: RODI ) Global X Permanent (NYSEARCA: PERM ) Global X Scientific Beta US (NYSEARCA: SCIU ) IQ 50 Percent Hedged FTSE Japan (NYSEARCA: HFXJ ) iShares Global Inflation-Linked Bond (NYSEARCA: GTIP ) O’Shares FTSE Europe Quality Dividend (NYSEARCA: OEUR ) PureFunds ISE Junior Silver (NYSEARCA: SILJ ) The 4 ETFs removed from ETF Deathwatch due to delisting: Highland HFR Equity Hedge (NYSEARCA: HHDG ) Highland HFR Event-Driven (NYSEARCA: DRVN ) Highland HFR Global (NYSEARCA: HHFR ) DB Commodity Long ETN (NYSEARCA: DPU ) ETF Deathwatch Archives Disclosure: Author has no positions in any of the securities mentioned and no positions in any of the companies or ETF sponsors mentioned. No income, revenue, or other compensation (either directly or indirectly) is received from, or on behalf of, any of the companies or ETF sponsors mentioned.