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First Solar Q1 Sales Expected To Double; 2017 Could Mark EPS Trough

Wall Street’s call for No. 1 solar installer  First Solar ( FSLR ) to exceed $3.50 in 2017 earnings might be “too high,” but that year also could mark a trough for the company’s profit, Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah said Tuesday. Shah reiterated his buy rating — while also cutting his price target to 80 from 86 — on First Solar stock ahead of the company’s Q1 earnings report, due out after the close Wednesday. First Solar’s annual earnings are expected to dip 20% to $4.30 in 2016 and by another 18% to $3.53 in 2017, according to the consensus of 21 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. But Shah sees the company returning to earnings growth in 2018. “We believe First Solar should be in a position to achieve $4.35-$5 (earnings per share) in 2020 in a base case scenario, or as high as $7.30-$8.50 in 2020 in a bull case scenario,” he wrote in a research report. The company’s EPS jumped 37% in 2015 to $5.37. For Q1, the consensus expects First Solar to report $958.3 million in sales, more than doubling year over year, and 90 cents EPS, swinging from a per-share loss of 60 cents in the year-earlier quarter. Both metrics are seen dipping in Q2. But Shah calls First Solar “a relative safe haven in the cleantech sector,” citing a strong balance sheet and robust near-term outlook. For 2016, First Solar’s earlier guidance called for 8% year-over-year sales growth. The company has a 3-gigawatt backlog for 2017-2020 comprised of 2 GW in system sales and 1 GW in module sales. Recent bookings have shifted in conjunction with First Solar’s earlier guidance for 80% modules and 20% systems in incremental bookings. Shah expects First Solar to book 2 GW-3.5 GW in system business for 2017-2020, while shipping 17 GW of modules into internal systems/third module customers. In early afternoon trading on the stock market today , First Solar stock was up 1%, near 61. Shares are down 8% this year but have fared better than IBD’s 20-company Energy-Solar industry group, which is down 27%. First Solar tops the group in terms of market value, with residential installer SolarCity ( SCTY ) and rival solar developer SunPower ( SPWR ) trailing distantly. Together, First Solar and SunPower sponsor yieldco 8point3 Energy Partners ( CAFD ), fourth in market value.

First Solar, SunPower To Withstand SunEdison Inferno: Guggenheim

First Solar ( FSLR ) and SunPower ( SPWR ) stocks flashed Wednesday after a Guggenheim analyst said rival  SunEdison ‘s ( SUNE ) “collapse” wouldn’t torch the duo and their yieldco 8point3 Energy Partners ( CAFD ). Just ahead of the closing bell on the stock market today , SunPower stock was up about 3%, leading First Solar stock which was up about 2%. Shares of 8point3 Energy Partners trailed, up 0.5%, ahead of beleaguered SunEdison stock, down about 7% and trading below 40 cents. Broadly, solar stocks lit up Wednesday. IBD’s 21-company Energy-Solar industry group was up 2% in late-afternoon trading. SunEdison stock has plunged 99% since its 2015 high on July 20, when it announced its plan to acquire Vivint Solar. Residential installer Vivint Solar scrapped the sale in December, citing SunEd’s lagging financials. Last month, SunEdison’s yieldco TerraForm Global ( GLBL ) distanced itself from massive project developer SunEd, which could be headed for a bankruptcy protection filing soon , according to reports. SunEdison may be in technical default on $725 million in second-tier loans unless it negotiated extensions with creditors. ITC Extension A Boon But First Solar and SunPower won’t feel that heat, Guggenheim analyst Sophie Karp wrote in a research report. Karp initiated coverage on First Solar stock with a buy rating, ahead of SunPower and 8point3 Energy Partners stocks, which have neutral ratings. Congress’ extension to the key Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which underpins the U.S. solar industry, will prove a boon for large-scale developers like First Solar and SunPower, she wrote. Residential installers like SolarCity ( SCTY ) and Sunrun ( RUN ) won’t see the same benefits. “We do not think that residential developers will be main beneficiaries due to the fiercely competitive nature of their business,” she wrote. “Despite operating in a fragmented and competitive market (large-scale developers) are still much better protected and will be able to retain more benefits.” But SunPower might be too internationally stretched to reap the ITC extension benefits as fully as First Solar, Karp wrote. Prepping for the expected expiration Dec. 31, 2016, SunPower invested heavily in international expansion. “Given that the ITC extension has changed the calculus domestically, we wonder if SunPower is now too thinly stretched to take advantage of this backdrop,” Karp wrote. Her price target on SunPower stock is a 21. She lists First Solar stock with a 77 price target. SunEdison’s collapse will likely lead First Solar and SunPower to bring their financing back to basics, Karp wrote. Project financing will be available to reputable players at attractive rates, but yieldcos will likely continue to be shut out of the market. Meanwhile, tech innovations are driving solar costs down and storage is on the horizon, Karp wrote. Storage is often seen as a pie-in-the-sky innovation to cut solar customers’ reliance on utilities at night and on cloudy days.

SunEdison ‘On Life Support’ After TerraForm Yieldco Bubble Blast

Bankruptcy clouds shadow  SunEdison ( SUNE ) this week, ahead of a Wednesday deadline to file its annual 10-K or, say analysts, default on $725 million in second-lien loans — an inferno, at least two analyst say, that ties back to its yieldcos  TerraForm Power ( TERP ) and TerraForm Global ( GLBL ). Late Tuesday, reports surfaced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission might be probing SunEdison’s liquidity stance. The Wall Street Journal reported that SEC investigators are examining how much cash SunEd had on hand last year. In early trading on the stock market today , SunEdison stock plunged more than 40% on the investigation rumor, dipping below 1 to an all-time low. “I’d say (SunEdison is) kind of on life support as we speak,” S&P Global Market Intelligence analyst Angelo Zino told IBD on Monday. “We have absolutely no visibility into the financial outlook of the company. It’s obviously very worrisome.” SunEd’s Lacking Financials SunEdison last held an earnings call in November, about two weeks before it fired Carlos Domenech, SunEd executive vice president and CEO of both TerraForms. According to TerraForm Power’s proxy statement, Domenech first initiated communications with Vivint Solar ( VSLR ). On July 20, SunEdison announced its plan to acquire residential solar installer Vivint. The deal briefly got a warm embrace on Wall Street, but shares of SunEdison and Vivint Solar have plummeted a respective 96% and 83% since then. In December, SunEd cut its bid on Vivint to reflect the drop in stock price, and this month Vivint scrapped its sale to SunEdison, citing financial concerns about the acquirer. A major TerraForm Power investor had been angling to block the deal as well. The transaction would have dropped Vivint Solar’s 523-megawatt rooftop assets down to TerraForm Power. Since then, SunEdison delayed its annual 10-K financial statement on Feb. 29 and March 16, citing an ongoing investigation into its liquidity stance . The investigation arose from allegations by former and current executives of financial misconduct. Yield company TerraForm Power blamed SunEd for its own late 10-K.  TerraForm Power is facing Nasdaq delisting as well as a potential slew of investor class action lawsuits related to the insider trading and fraud portions of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. TerraForm Power stock was down nearly 8% early Tuesday, below 8. Zino maintains his hold rating on SunEdison stock, but over the past week investment banks Cowen and Stifel Nicolaus have dropped their coverage on SunEdison stock. ‘Overpaying For Assets’ Nine months ago, SunEdison was a different company, Zino says. In June, SunEdison’s assets were valuable, the company had ready access to the debt financing and equity markets, and could tap its healthy TerraForm yieldcos. A yieldco is created to house assets, generate on-tap cash flow and yield tax-free dividends. TerraForm Power filed its IPO in June 2014. NRG Energy ( NRG ) followed in May 2015 with a superior strategy, T-Rex Group CEO Benjamin Cohen told IBD. T-Rex Group is an analytics-based advisory group for renewable stocks. NRG Yield ( NYLD ) held 71% non-renewable assets in conjunction with 29% renewable assets — balancing older profitable assets with newer and more quickly-depreciating renewable assets. By appearing less profitable overall, the yieldco can pay less in taxes, Cohen explained. It’s a completely legal strategy — and investors ate it up. Soon, the yieldcos were producing more cash than the parent company could invest. “So they had to invest in unsecured assets,” namely the pre-development stages of projects already dropped into the yieldcos. “They were overpaying for assets . . . and that risk drove up the price of the assets.” The bubble burst. Days after announcing its plan to acquire Vivint Solar, SunEdison’s TerraForm Global filed its IPO and launched on Wall Street at 12.44, 17% below its 15 IPO price. Shares were down 20% early Tuesday, below 2. ‘Public Poster Child’ SunEdison may be the “public poster child” for the yieldco bubble burst, but SunEd’s downfall isn’t indicative of the broader solar market and asset class, Cohen says. “This is the failure of a capital market vehicle, as opposed to the failure of an asset class or the failure of one particular company,” he said. But, he acknowledged, SunEd was slugged particularly hard in the yieldco blast and investors are leery of ongoing financial storms. “Equity investors are discounting the value of SunEdison because management hasn’t proved its ability to execute on its strategy,” he said. “It seems overdone.” NRG Yield stock is down more than 50% since its peak near 28 last June. The  First Solar ( FSLR )– SunPower ( SPWR ) jointly-owned yieldco, 8point3 Energy Partners ( CAFD ), went public last June at 21 and is trading below 14, down 4.5% early Tuesday. July 20 proved to be SunEdison stock’s recent high point, at 33.45. Shares have traded around 1 since February. SunEdison was targeting aggressive growth via M&A and aiming to use yieldcos TerraForm Power and TerraForm Global to help pay for its investments, Zino says. Debt financing was available but more difficult, he says, considering SunEd’s heavily-leveraged balance sheet. ‘SunEdison Didn’t Have A Fallback’ Investors worried that SunEdison’s Vivint Solar acquisition was too much, too fast. Then, TerraForm Global opened far below its IPO price. “The fact SunEdison didn’t have a fallback, the fact they were getting too aggressive with these M&A deals was part of the reason we saw the investment community sell off on these yieldco vehicles,” Zino said. He added: “Once they weren’t able to tap the yieldcos anymore, that’s what really put SunEdison in the situation it’s in today.” Now, SunEdison is struggling to shop its assets around to third-party developers. In June, SunEd’s yieldcos would have bought those assets. Not now. And lacking newer financial statements, no bank will touch SunEd, Zino said. “Until they are able to get a resolution to the 10-K filing, we wouldn’t expect to see anything come out of the debt market, and it becomes problematic for the third-party market as well,” he said. “It becomes difficult for utilities to invest in SunEdison if they have no idea of the type of financial situation SunEdison is in.” And SunEd certainly can’t tap the equity market. Said Zino, “a precipitous decline in the yieldco prices had a direct impact on SunEdison stock and, as a result, we saw billions and billions (of dollars) in equity value wiped out from the yieldcos and SunEdison together.”