Tag Archives: foxa

Comcast’s NBCU Turns Up Heat On Dish Amid YES Network Dispute

Comcast ( CMCSA )-owned NBCUniversal is turning up the heat on satellite TV broadcaster Dish Network ( DISH ) amid contract renewal talks for programming. Dish Network already is facing tough negotiations with Viacom ( VIA ). Comcast, on the other side as a pay-TV provider, has been in a dispute with sports channel YES Network over programming fees. NBCU has launched a marketing campaign warning viewers they could be blacked out on Dish Network by March 20, says Broadcasting & Cable . NBCU owns cable channels USA Network, Syfy, Bravo, CNBC and  MSNBC. Dish on Tuesday afternoon said it expects to file for arbitration in the dispute with NBCU. “Under the conditions imposed by the FCC and Department of Justice in approving the Comcast-NBCUniversal merger, NBC is forbidden from blacking out its networks if a pay-TV provider chooses, in its sole discretion, to exercise its right for binding arbitration,” Dish said in a statement. Viacom’s 24 cable networks, meanwhile, include MTV, Nickelodeon and Comedy Central. Dish Network has had disputes with CBS ( CBS ), 21st Century Fox ( FOXA ) and Time Warner’ s ( TWX ) Turner Broadcasting unit. Comcast is at an impasse with YES Network. Fox took majority control of the YES Network in 2014 from the New York Yankees’ parent company. The Comcast-YES Network dispute affects about 900,000 Comcast customers in New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. According to an Oppenheimer research report, Fox Networks sought a 33% fee increase for YES programming. Walt Disney ’s ( DIS ) ESPN garners the highest content fees. “We believe programming costs will rise sharply in the near term  but will moderate in the longer term as lower advertising revenues and cord cutting weaken the bargaining power of the content providers and ultimately break the paid-TV model,” wrote Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan. “Programming costs have risen at three times the growth rate of (cable company) revenues during the last five years.”

TV Auction View: AT&T, VZ Top Bidders; Comcast In; Google, AMZN Out

JPMorgan is bullish on the upcoming “Broadcast Incentive Auction,” which will free up prime, low-frequency airwaves owned by local TV broadcasters for wireless data services. Naysayers continue to contend that the Federal Communications Commission faces many challenges in pulling off a successful auction, which for now is scheduled to start late next month. One risk is that broadcasters might drop out of the auction if they determine that bidding prices are disappointing. The auction is key for T-Mobile US ( TMUS ), which needs spectrum.  AT&T ( T ) and Verizon Communications ( VZ ) own most of the available low-frequency spectrum, in which waves travel longer distances, among other advantages over higher-frequency spectrum. JPMorgan expects at least 70 MHz of airwaves, and possibly more, to be auctioned. The key is that broadcasters that own two local TV stations will sell off airwaves from one and keep spectrum from the other, says JPMorgan. “We estimate that 70-100 MHz will be auctioned, for $25 billion to $35 billion,” said JPMorgan in a research report. Twenty-First Century Fox ( FOXA ) and  CBS ( CBS ) are expected to sell airwaves in some markets. While Comcast ’s ( CMCSA ) cable company is a potential bidder , it also owns media firm NBCUniversal, a likely seller of airwaves. Smaller local TV station owners include  Sinclair Broadcast Group ( SBGI ) and  Gray Television ( GTNA ). “We view FOX and CBS as best positioned to monetize duopoly affiliates in large markets, followed by Comcast and Sinclair,” said JPMorgan. Walt Disney ( DIS ), which owns ABC, is not expected to sell airwaves. Private investment firms such as Columbia Capital are eyeing the auction, says a Washington Post report . JPMorgan predicts cable TV firms will show up, but it doubts that Internet giants will bid. “We expect that AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile will be the biggest bidders ($21 billion-$30 billion cumulative spend), that Sprint ( S )/ SoftBank ( SFTBY ) will not register, and Dish Network ( DISH ) will at most be an opportunistic buyer,” said the JPMorgan report. “We estimate Comcast, potentially in partnership with other cable companies, could spend $3 billion-$5 billion, and private equity funds in aggregate could spend $1 billion-$2 billion. “We do not expect digital economy players like Alphabet -Google ( GOOGL ) or Amazon.com ( AMZN ) to bid, though they can never be ruled out.”

Twitter Advertising Growth, User Numbers, Under Pressure In Q4?

When Twitter ( TWTR ) reports earnings on Wednesday, analysts will be looking to see if the social media firm known for its global reach has managed to boost its user numbers. During the past year, Twitter has brought in a new CEO, made numerous other executive suite changes, acquired new companies and added new services. Still, its user numbers are expected to remain stagnant in Q4, and Twitter remains under fire from Wall Street. Twitter stock has remained below its 2013  IPO price of 26 since November as analysts worry about the impact that sluggish user growth will have on Twitter’s profitability, as the microblog’s user base could affect its ultimate ability to charge for ads. “We believe positive ad pricing trends drove Q4 revenue towards the high end of guidance, but user growth likely was stagnant,” wrote Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter on Friday in an industry research note. On Friday, Twitter stock tumbled to close at near a record low after getting a price target cut from Wedbush. The investment bank predicts that Twitter won’t show meaningful user growth when it reports Q4 earnings, because the service remains too hard for the average user to figure out, compared to other social media. Monthly active users of the service — excluding SMS Fast Followers who can get tweets on their phones without being registered users — rose by just 5 million to 307 million from Q1 to Q3, Pachter wrote. He doesn’t appear to have high hopes for Moments, the service that Twitter launched last fall to showcase hot news topics and draw more non-registered users to the site. “We do not think that Moments drove a meaningful increase in users, as much of the content remains outdated or irrelevant,” said Pachter. Attrition of high-level staff is also a concern. In late January, Pachter said, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey announced that the SVP of Engineering, SVP of Product, VP of Global Media and VP of Human Resources had all “chosen to leave,” with the GM of video service Vine also departing. “We believe that had Moments been an early success, the executives would not have left so soon, voluntarily or otherwise,” Pachter said. He said that since Facebook ( FB ) reported that its average price per ad was up 21% year over year in Q4 — with the increase driven in part by the shift to mobile — “positive ad pricing trends drove Q4 revenue towards the high-end of guidance” for Twitter, too. Wedbush cut its price target on Twitter stock to 20 from 30, and Pachter maintains a neutral rating on Twitter stock. Advertising, which makes up 90% of Twitter’s total revenues, will “see continued deceleration over time,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney in a report on Friday. “Our concern for some time has been that Twitter’s lack of real-time commercial intent (a la Alphabet ( GOOGL )-owned Google) or detailed, authentic profiles (a la Facebook) will eventually limit Twitter’s growth potential.” Mahaney said that he expects Twitter to generate $2.02 for every monthly active user in Q4 vs. Facebook’s $3.59, compared with $1.60 and $2.83 in Q3. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are modeling Twitter to post revenue of $709.9 million, up 48% year over year. The consensus opinion is that Twitter’s EPS ex items will remain flat year over year at 12 cents. For Q1, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Twitter to see revenue rise 44% to $629.3 million and post EPS ex items of 8 cents, up 14% year over year. In late January, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Youssef Squali said that Twitter’s muted stock price might prompt a buyout of the social media company. “Twitter’s current valuation, unique offering and sizable user base makes it a strategic asset for a number of potential buyers, be they technology or media companies,” wrote Squali, who maintained a buy rating on Twitter stock. He said a buyout of Twitter is a little easier than for some other companies because “there is no concentration of share ownership and no super-voting structure, with the top three shareholders owning 6.4%, 5.1%, and 5.0%, respectively.” Besides Facebook, Squali says potential suitors for Twitter, which has a market value near $11 billion, include tech companies Alphabet and Microsoft ( MSFT ), as well as media companies Twenty-First Century Fox ( FOXA ), Walt Disney ( DIS ), Comcast ( CMCSA ) and Time Warner ( TWX ). Late Friday, Buzzfeed reported that Twitter might abandon its reverse chronological timeline display and switch to an algorithimic system.