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Can The Lift Of Sanctions Start The Growth Of The Russian Share Market?

Summary The French president proclaimed that the sanctions against Russia should be lifted. The main problem of the Russian stock market is the collapse of oil prices right now. The investors shouldn’t expect that the end of sanctions will have a strong effect on the Market Vectors Russia ETF. The French president Francoise Hollande said that the sanctions against Russia should be lifted . The sanctions were imposed during 2014 in order to force Russia to not support the rebels in eastern Ukraine. The sanctions have limited the access of some of the biggest Russian companies to financial markets. But the real problem for the Russian economy and the Russian share market is the collapse of oil prices right now. The chart below shows the 2014 development of the Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSEARCA: RSX ), S&P 500 and Brent valuations. As we can see RSX had very volatile first half of 2014. But it managed to recover most of the losses during May and June. The major decline has started in early July and it coincided with the start of the oil price collapse. Both of the curves are almost identical on the September-December time frame. (click to enlarge) Source: own processing The correlation coefficient between RSX and Brent was 0.866 in 2014. It was only 0.355 in the 1H 2014 but it rose to 0.96 in the 2H 2014, which means almost perfect positive correlation. The chart below shows 20-day moving correlation between RSX and Brent prices. It clearly shows that the huge decline of the RSX price is related to the oil price collapse more than to anything other. (click to enlarge) Source: own processing Yes, the sanctions are a complication for Gazprom ( OTCQX:GZPFY ), Sberbank ( OTCPK:SBRCY ), VTB or Rosneft ( OTC:RNFTF ). But the Western financial markets are not the only source of money. There is a country called China right to the south of Russia. And although China has some problems right now it still holds huge foreign currency reserves. Investing in Russia would help to diversify the Chinese reserves out of dollars and it would also help them to satisfy their long term appetite for natural resources. So yes, the sanctions are a complication for the Russian companies but it is nothing that should be able to endanger their existence and bring their share prices to the current levels. The ultimate problem is the collapse of oil prices. Conclusion The opinion of president Hollande is really positive and the sanctions should be definitely canceled. The European economy is impacted by the sanctions and anti-sanctions probably equally if not even more than the Russian economy. Also the situation in Ukraine has calmed down lately and the peace talks are underway. But if the sanctions will be or won’t be lifted, it will have only a limited impact on the Russian share market and on the price of RSX. All RSX needs to start growing is growth of the oil price and its stabilization somewhere over $80/barrel. I am sure that the oil price will return to the $100 level and above it but I don’t know whether it will be in 2015, 2016 or maybe in 2017. The big Russian companies will survive the waiting but they will not shine. This time period is a good opportunity to accumulate shares of selected companies and RSX. Now that you’ve read this, are you Bullish or Bearish on ? Bullish Bearish Sentiment on ( ) Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Why are you ? Submit & View Results Skip to results » Share this article with a colleague

In Search Of Income: Covered Call CEFs (Part II – Specific Funds)

Summary There are 20+ covered call CEFs that Convergence Investments considers potentially investable. Funds can be measured and should be evaluated based on income generation, NAV performance, valuation, and a variety of other factors. We currently find BDJ, ETJ, and NFJ to be well balanced, attractive funds worthy of investor consideration. Our previous article profiled and analyzed the sector of closed-end funds that utilize covered call strategies. Please refer to that article for a background description on the sector as a whole. This article will dig deeper into specific recommendations of especially attractive covered call CEFs for income-seeking investors to consider. Universe of Included Funds The Convergence investing universe consists of more than 475 closed-end funds across all available equity and bond sectors, after filtering for funds that we consider not investable for a variety of reasons (the most common being size/liquidity, NAV transparency). The covered call segment consists of the following closed-end funds: BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust (NYSE: BDJ ) BlackRock International Growth & Income Trust (NYSE: BGY ) BlackRock Global Opportunities Equity Trust (NYSE: BOE ) BlackRock Enhanced Capital & Income Fund (NYSE: CII ) Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund (NYSE: EOI ) Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund II (NYSE: EOS ) Eaton Vance Risk-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (NYSE: ETJ ) Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund (NYSE: ETV ) Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Buy-Write Opportunities Fund (NYSE: ETW ) Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund (NYSE: ETY ) Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund (NYSE: EXG ) First Trust Enhanced Equity Income Fund (NYSE: FFA ) GAMCO Natural Resources Gold & Income Trust (NYSE: GNT ) Guggenheim Enhanced Equity Income Fund (NYSE: GPM ) ING Global Advantage & Premium Opportunity Fund (NYSE: IGA ) ING Global Equity Dividend & Premium Opportunity Fund (NYSE: IGD ) Cohen & Steers Global Income Builder (NYSE: INB ) Voya Natural Resources Equity Income Fund (NYSE: IRR ) Madison Covered Call & Equity Strategy Fund (NYSE: MCN ) Madison Strategic Sector Premium Fund (NYSE: MSP ) NFJ Dividend & Premium Strategy Fund (NYSE: NFJ ) Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund (NYSE: STK ) Evaluating Investment in Covered Call Funds There are many qualitative and quantitative factors that prospective investors can consider when evaluating a closed-end fund. Convergence Investments summarizes these many factors into six dimensions useful for comparing and choosing investments: Distribution Yield – How much – and what type(s) – of distribution (aka “yield”) does the fund offer? How likely is it that the fund can maintain or increase this distribution in future? NAV Performance – How has a sector’s or individual fund’s NAV changed in the recent past? What is the outlook for future NAV trends? Valuation – Where is the current market price relative to current NAV for a fund or sector? How does this premium (or discount) to NAV compare to the past and to other fund categories? Risk – What level and type of risk is an investor bearing to earn distributions and potential capital gains? Stewardship – Does a fund have strong management? Are its management fees reasonable? Does the board have shareholder-friendly policies in place? Tradability – How readily can we take a position (long or short) in a particular fund? What are the liquidity (market cap, average daily volume) and trading costs (average spreads, short borrow fees) involved? Distribution Yield Significant distribution yields are among the top motivators for closed-end fund investors. While there are many nuances to fund distributions, including how they’re generated and how sustainable they appear to be, the top-line yield number drives much of the sentiment and investor behavior. Generally, funds within the segment offer a NAV yield* of between 6 and 10%. However, investors seeking superior yield within the this sector may give special consideration to NFJ, STK, GPM, or IRR, all of which boast distribution yields of greater than 10% of NAV. *Note that numbers quoted here are calculated as a percentage of NAV rather than market price to provide a more accurate measure of the income generated from portfolio assets. Investors holding closed-end funds at a discount to NAV will earn yields greater than the NAV yields. For instance, a fund trading at a 10% discount will have a price yield of 10/9 ths or 1.11x the NAV yield. (click to enlarge) Seasoned CEF investors know that distribution rates (often referred to as “yield”) are not all created equal. The source of distributions matters as much as the size of distributions in determining the attractiveness of the income stream generated by a given fund. In the case of covered call CEFs, return of capital (ROC) is quite common and, in our view, is usually a positive – or at least neutral – feature of a fund. Please see our previous article for further explanation. The below chart ranks each covered call fund by the estimated** effective tax rate on distributions in the past 12 months for a hypothetical taxpayer based on the allocation of each fund’s distributions to the four buckets of distributions: ROC, long-term gains, short-term gains, or income. The author is not a tax expert. This analysis is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute tax advice. It’s somewhat surprising how widely the effective tax rates vary for the funds, at least in the current period. Note that ROC distributions have the effect of lowering cost basis and thus trigger increased capital gains upon eventual sale of the fund. Certain funds, such as GNT, may have low effective tax rates in part because they have declined substantially in NAV so may be selling positions at a capital loss. However, other funds like EXG which have also eroded NAV in the past year and purport to be tax managed, had distributions taxed at effective rates of upwards of 40% in this hypothetical case. Categorization of distributions can change dramatically from year to year so do not treat this analysis as anything other than an illustration of the importance of carefully monitoring changes to the taxation status of your funds’ distributions. (click to enlarge) **This estimate assumes a California married-filing-jointly household with AGI of $400,000 with tax rates as follows: ROC is tax free (note: ROC reduces cost basis and will trigger increased taxable gains upon sale of the fund) Long-term gains are taxed at 29.1% (15% federal, 10.3% state, 3.8% NII) Short-term gains and income are taxed at 47.1% (33% federal, 10.3% state, 3.8% NII) NAV Performance Investors disagree about how to interpret recent increases in net asset value. Momentum-oriented investors may see this as a trend likely to continue while mean reversion investors may see exactly the opposite. Convergence generally views recent increases in NAV as a positive factor at both the sector and fund level because we believe that sentiment-driven fund flows tend to play out over months and quarters, not days and weeks. We also view increasing NAV as an indicator of manager skill and of protection against cuts to a fund’s distribution. Covered call funds have varied widely in the past 12 months with some funds like GNT, IRR, and BGY falling more than 15% in the past year while others like STK, FFA, and EOS have grown NAV by 5+ percent. (click to enlarge) Valuation A major reason to invest in closed-end funds rather than ETFs or traditional mutual funds is the possibility for informed investors to take advantage disconnects between fund price and fund NAV, often referred to as the fund’s premium or discount. We seek to purchase funds at sizeable discounts, and ideally at discounts beyond that which is normal relative to history and/or relative to a fund’s peers in category. Purchasing at a discount offers two attractions. First, purchasing at a discount enhances yields since an investor can own the rights to the income generated from a hypothetical $10 of net assets with only $9 of investment. Second, for investors willing to actively manage their holdings, funds purchased at particularly wide discounts can be sold at narrower discounts – or even premiums – for capital gains that enhance the total returns from a fund. Note: Convergence follows the convention of representing all premiums (price > NAV) as a positive number and all discounts (price < NAV) as a negative value. Among the funds in this sector all but two trade at discounts to NAV, and several including MSP, BOE, MCN, BDJ, BGY, and IGD, trade at double-digit discounts. It's worth noting that deep discounts have not always been the rule in this fund category, with the group in aggregate priced at a premium to NAV as recently as mid-2010. (click to enlarge) Risk There are no free lunches. Covered call CEFs offer high single-digit or even double-digit yields to investors as compensation for the various risks that investors are being asked to take. Covered call CEFs most significantly expose investors to equity market risk, measured by "beta" to the broader S&P 500 index. We believe this metric is most useful when comparing day-to-day measurements of NAV, rather than price, vs. the broader market to accurately measure how much market risk the portfolio itself is exposed to. While all funds in the category have a beta less than 1.0 (i.e., are relatively less sensitive to market volatility than an S&P 500 index fund), certain funds such as ETJ, IRR, and MSP carry beta factors below 0.7 and may be suited to investors looking to avoid equity market risk. (click to enlarge) A second type of risk to which covered call CEF investors are exposed is concentration risk , or the lack of diversification within the portfolio's holdings. To some investors, concentration in a single sector (e.g., Financials) may be a feature rather than a bug. Seligman's STK, after all, is a top performing fund in part because it's concentrated in technology stocks. However, most investors will prefer diversification to concentration. The below chart illustrates each fund's concentration of holdings in seven major sectors and ranks (from top to bottom) concentration, calculated in a manner similar to the Herfindahl Index from the field of antitrust law. Almost all funds in the category are well diversified but investors should be aware that IRR, STK, and GNT all carry specific investment mandates that must be suited to their needs and beliefs. (click to enlarge) Expenses Expense ratios are almost universally accepted as an important criteria in fund selection. However, the unique structure of closed-end funds makes the calculation of relevant expense ratios non-trivial. Convergence favors using a measure of management fees, excluding cost of leverage, as a percent of gross assets instead of the typically higher ratio that complies with "40 act" reporting requirements. In our opinion, the ability of CEFs to use leverage with borrowing costs far below what we would pay a broker is to our benefit and cost of capital borrowed for investors' benefit should not be a strike against fund managers. Further, we believe that measuring the expense ratio we pay to fund managers per dollar of portfolio assets they are managing is a more fair way of measuring value-for-money when comparing fees among CEFs or when comparing CEFs to unlevered structures like mutual funds and ETFs. All funds in this category charge fees of between 0.8% and 1.25% per annum, which we believe to be reasonable in consideration of the relatively active nature of covered call strategies. (click to enlarge) Liquidity Liquidity, or how easily an investor is able to find a willing counter-party to a buy or sell transaction, is a metric whose importance varies greatly by individual investor. On one extreme, an investor purchasing only a few hundred shares of a fund with intentions of holding for months or years should care very little about liquidity. However, investors trading in moderate to large quantities, and with intentions of medium to short holding periods, should begin to consider fund liquidity as an important hidden cost to investment. Funds including MSP and MCN are illiquid enough that even relatively modestly sized trades may represent a meaningful share of daily market volume. Investors should exercise caution with lower liquidity funds, potentially limiting total investment and scaling in/out of positions in small volumes. (click to enlarge) Conclusion As this article has outlined, there are many dimensions on which you may compare funds. However, we highlight three funds of interest based on their across-the-board attractiveness. BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Founded 10 years ago, the current management has been in place since 2010. Its portfolio of holdings can be characterized as blue chip. Recent changes in the source of distributions from ROC to income and more recently back to primarily ROC may have contributed to the discount to NAV to widen to a very attractive 12%. We believe the stewardship is strong with management fees below 1% and absence of a managed distribution policy. It offers a dividend reinvestment plan which has all dividends and distributions reinvested in shares unless otherwise directed. EV Risk-Managed Diversified Equity This fund distributes an annualized 10%+ monthly based on a NAV which is discounted nearly 12% in current trading, though recent performance has lagged behind peers. Unlike many of its peers, recent distributions have been largely characterized as income rather than ROC. It has a funds reinvestment policy that, unless the shareholder directs otherwise, all distributions will be reinvested. As is typical of the segment, it carries no leverage. Its holdings are fully invested in large US equities. AllianzGI NFJ Dividend Interest & Premium This fund seeks to pay current income while producing capital appreciation. It distributes at a rate of 11% which has recently been characterized primarily as ROC so as to minimize tax impact. It has a history of trading near NAV, making the current ~8% discount to NAV an attractive entry point. The fund is somewhat concentrated in financials (23%) and energy (14%) which may explain the recent widening of discount. Over 10% of assets are in foreign stocks. Management fees are slightly less than 1% and its historically successful portfolio managers have been in place since the fund's inception in 2005. Additional disclosure: Convergence Investment Management may recommend various securities included within this article for inclusion for individual client portfolios. These recommendations may change at any time and are specific to the individual client's objectives and risk tolerance.

Portfolio Update: Buying More PMs

Please note that this post is a little outdated due to the recent holiday break. Usually, I try to update the trades opened within the 24 hours from execution, but in recent times I haven’t been anywhere near the office (apart from an hour here or there). I did open two new trades just before New Year’s eve, so here is the update as well as a brief thinking process. Chart 1: Gold has shown incredible relative strength during the USD rally! Source: Short Side of Long Unless you have been living in a cave or under a rock, you surely would have noticed the amazing strength the U.S. Dollar has been showing in recent months. Whether it’s against the majors like the Euro, the Yen or the Australian dollar, or EM currencies such as the Ruble or Real, the greenback has been making up some serious ground. If we observe Chart 1, we should be able to see four major global macro asset classes: S&P 500, Treasury Long Bond, USD Index and Gold. Let us not focus on the stock and bond market for a second, and only pay attention to the recent action in the U.S. Dollar (inverted on the chart) and Gold. Majority of the time, negative correlation between the USD and Gold is high. So in plain English, usually but not always, Gold moving up means the U.S. Dollar is moving down, and vice versa. What should grab all of our attention is how powerful the recent USD rally has been and yet Gold has held its own (observe the blue box in Chart 1). Chart 2: Price is compressed in a technical triangle and it’s decision time Source: Short Side of Long The fact that Gold has barely sold off and still remains above $1,200 per ounce, at a similar price where it traded 18 months ago, indicates relative strength and buying interest. Other commodities, such as Crude Oil, have not been as lucky with greenback moving up so high. Eventually the U.S. Dollar rally will pause and take a breather, because nothing can keep rising vertically forever. It is my view that Gold will outperform when that time comes. Now… most trades would like to know when that will happen. Because I do not have a crystal ball, I cannot answer that question like other so-called “experts.” But what I can say is that the current price action in Gold shows a major compression in the form of a technical triangle. This pattern is edging closer and closer to a break in either direction, which should give us further clues (refer to Chart 2). I believe this break will be on the upside and I recently purchased some Gold via the SPDR Gold Trust ETF ( GLD). Depending on how the price behaves, this could either just be a short-term trade or a longer-term investment. Chart 3: Miners have been terrible performers since 2011 and appear cheap Source: Short Side of Long Furthermore, Gold Miners have become extremely oversold and now trade at dirt-cheap valuations. When compared to the Gold price itself, miners trade at the biggest discount since 2000… around the time the last major precious metals bull market started (please see Chart 3). This is even more true when we look at the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF ( GDXJ), which is down by almost 89% from the highest high in late 2010. I’ve started a small position here to test the waters (similar to Russia and Uranium if you refer to Chart 4). Also worth an important mention, I have closed my major hedge on Silver, which was originally opened in early July of 2014 just above $21 per ounce. This was one of my biggest trades in recent times and a gain of 24.5% is really, really huge. I plan to use these profits to purchase more PMs and average down my previous positions, which sit underwater. Moreover, despite a huge rally in the U.S. Dollar, I will continue to hold all my cash in this currency for the time being. My shorts on the Aussie Dollar also remain in place for now. Finally, the only other position I have opened recently is the Chinese H shares bet, but more on that in another post. Chart 4: Recent additions to the portfolio are PMs and Chinese stocks Source: Short Side of Long Disclosure: Biggest trades in the portfolio are long Precious Metals, long Chinese equities, short Australian Dollar and finally cash held in U.S. Dollar currency. Link to the original article on The Short Side Of Long