Tag Archives: events

Why FAs Should Hedge Against Declining AUM: Financial Advisors’ Daily Digest

If a market downturn shrinks your AUM and your clients flee to cash (thus, further reducing your fee basis), you’re looking at a serious reduction in revenue. SA contributor Robert Boslego puts it this way: “Although RIAs with AUM revenue models rarely think that they are in the commodity business, their income fluctuates with asset prices just as an oil producer’s revenues fluctuate with oil prices.” While not predicting the timing of the next downturn, Boslego suggests advisory firms can take actions now to protect against this revenue-jeopardizing eventuality . Indeed, your humble digest editor has in like fashion hedged against his own impending absence during the upcoming Passover holiday by recruiting the resourceful and talented Robyn Conti , who has graciously volunteered to supply advisors with relevant links over the course of the next week. If you are not already subscribed to Robyn’s feed, please do so now – if for no other reason than to receive her own highly engaging bimonthly digest addressing income issues. Below, please find links of interest to advisors, starting with a fascinating post on the transition from accumulation to distribution that we discussed yesterday (you might want to check out all the interesting reader comments):

Forget Gold; Buy Silver Mining ETFs Instead

While broad-based global growth worries in Q1 and the Fed’s dovish stance in the March meet stalled the strength in the greenback, it spread joy within broad-based commodity investing. Most investors focused on gold taking cues from the Fed’s dovish comments over rate hike. Another corner of the precious metals world – silver – has also done quite well lately. The white metal has seen extremely solid trading in recent times and touched a 10-month high on April 19 owing to some disappointing economic data, mainly from the U.S. The jump was so acute that silver has actually breezed past the yellow metal. Most market participants have now started to expect that the Fed will not act on policy tightening again before the second half of 2016 given persistent volatility in the oil patch, corporate earnings weakness and sluggish U.S. market recovery. All these are likely to keep the greenback soft in the coming days and precious metals strong. Renewed tension in the oil patch after the output freeze deal in Doha failed may also bolster the need to invest in safe havens like silver and gold. Also, silver might see an output crunch ahead, as “Zinc miners have announced production cuts resulting into a proportionate decline in silver output as well, silver being a byproduct of zinc,” going by Business Standard . Apart from this, silver has high usage in industrial activities, with about 50% of total demand coming from industrial applications. With China, the biggest industrial fabricator after the U.S., gaining traction on manufacturing activities, silver might continue to see smooth trading in the coming days. Plus, a pickup in global industrial activities is expected ahead, thanks to a host of stimulus measures in various parts of the globe. Silver Mining Vs. Gold Mining? Whatever the case, the ultra-popular gold bullion exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ) lost about 0.4% in the last five trading days (as of April 19, 2016), while silver bullion fund iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SLV ) advanced over 4.7% during the same time frame. Actually, many investors have started to view silver as a leveraged play on gold, as per ETF Securities. Investors should also note that the silver mining industry , at least in terms of its Zacks Industry Rank, is in a decent position, having been ranked in the top 5% overall. Many silver mining companies are presently top-rated as per the Zacks methodology. Investors can tap the surge in silver demand by investing in silver mining ETFs, which often play as a leveraged version of the underlying metal. The case appears to hold true for silver as well. Silver mining funds, including the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: SIL ), the iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: SLVP ) and the PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF (NYSEARCA: SILJ ) gained about 9.9%, 11.9% and 16.3%, respectively, during the last five trading days (as of April 19, 2016). The trio hit a 52-week high on April 19, 2016, with SILJ, SLVP and SIL adding about 10.6%, 9.6% and 9.2%, respectively. On the other hand, gold mining ETFs like the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDXJ ), the Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: SGDJ ) and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX ) added 7.5%, 5.8% and 4.9%, respectively, on April 19, 2016, though even these hit 52-week highs. Bottom Line It seems buying pressure is intense in the silver mining ETF space, and given the pushback (apparently) in the Fed rate hikes, extra buying is likely. As a caveat, we would like to note that this way up in commodities may be short-lived. Also, silver prices are often more hit than gold when things are against precious metal investing. Thus, risk-loving investors might go for this momentum play and hoard as much gains as possible till the party is on. Original Post

Earnings Or Oil – What Will Drive Financial ETFs Ahead?

The financial sector, which accounts for around one-fifth of the S&P 500 index, had a decent-to-downbeat Q1. Most big banks beat on the bottom line while very few lived up to analysts’ expectations on the top line. Modest gains in loan growth amid low interest rates were overshadowed by troubled investment banking activities and subdued fixed-income markets. Also, the energy sector weakness has been the key drag on the banking sector. This is because that U.S. banks have significant exposure to the long-ailing energy sector where chances of credit default are higher. In February, the S&P cut its outlook on several regional banks with the highest energy sector exposure, citing a likely increase in non-performing assets. Among the biggies, Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC ) reported around $42 billion oil and gas credit in February. The situation is the same for J.P. Morgan, the energy loan of which accounts for 57% of the investment-grade paper. J.P. Morgan earlier noted that it ‘ set aside $600 million ‘ for loan losses emanating from the energy, metals and mining sectors. Against such a backdrop, a peek into the headline numbers of the Q1 earnings season becomes essential. If we go by the Zacks Earnings Trends issued on April 14, 2016, financial earnings are expected to fall 8.4% in Q1 on 1.8% higher revenues. Let’s take a look at the big banks’ earnings which released lately. Big Bank Earnings in Focus JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM ) reported first-quarter 2016 earnings of $1.35 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.26. Earnings were down 7% year over year. Net revenue of $24.1 billion was also ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $23.9 billion. Revenues declined 3% from the year-ago quarter. Citigroup’s (NYSE: C ) earnings from continuing operations of $1.11 for the quarter outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.04. However, earnings declined 26% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted revenues at Citigroup tumbled 11% year over year to $17.56 billion. Also, the revenue figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.79 billion. Wells Fargo earned $0.99 a share in the first quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny but declining from the prior-year quarter’s earnings of $1.04 per share. Total revenue came in at $22.2 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.6 billion. However, revenues grew 4.2% year over year. Bank of America Corporation’s (NYSE: BAC ) first-quarter earnings of $0.21 per share lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. Further, the bottom line witnessed a year-over-year decline of 16%. Net revenue of $19.5 billion was down 7% year over year and below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.5 billion. Morgan Stanley ‘s (NYSE: MS ) first-quarter earnings from continuing operations of $0.55 per share outdid the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.46 per share. The quarter’s earnings also reflect a significant decline from $0.85 per share earned in the prior-year quarter. Net revenue of $7.79 billion was down 21% year over year and shy of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.34 billion. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) reported earnings per share of $2.68 in the first quarter of 2016, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.57. However, the bottom line compared unfavorably with the year-ago figure of $5.94. Goldman’s net revenue slumped 40% year over year to $6.3 billion in the quarter. Also, revenues lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.1 billion. Earnings Soft But What About Financial ETFs? Despite decent-to-downbeat results from banks in the last one week, the concerned ETFs were loved by investors on a rising risk appetite. Investors seemingly have downplayed the weak numbers from banks as they were already prepared for this blow. On the other hand, oil price staged a rebound lately, first on an expected output freeze deal in Doha which finally collapsed and then on a strike in Kuwait by oil workers. These showered gains on the below-mentioned financial ETFs lately. Each of the aforementioned companies have considerable exposure in funds like iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF (NYSEARCA: IYG ), PowerShares KBW Bank (NYSEARCA: KBWB ), Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA: XLF ), U.S. Broker-Dealers Index Fund (NYSEARCA: IAI ) and Vanguard Financials ETF (NYSEARCA: VFH ). All the funds are in the green, having gained in the range of 3.7%-7% in the last five trading sessions (as of April 19, 2016). In any case, the broader market is appearing to follow the movements in oil lately and the financial sector investors are also seemingly doing the same. So, things are likely to be volatile in Q2 and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines. If the Fed again turns stringent in the near term, banks could see brighter days. Each of the aforementioned ETFs currently has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold). Original Post