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3 Sector ETFs Hit Hard By The Market Sell-Off

For the past few days, global markets have been on a tumultuous ride, primarily due to the Chinese stock market rout. The Chinese economy has been faltering for long. As a result, the Chinese stock market underwent heavy panic-induced sell-offs several times in the last few months. The country’s exports fell 8.3% year over year in July, worse than analysts’ expectation of a 1.5% decline as well as a 2.8% drop-off recorded in June. This prompted Chinese policy makers to devalue its currency yuan by 2% to maintain export competitiveness in mid-August. While this particular step resulted in a bloodbath in most securities and unnerved investors, a six-and-a-half-year low Chinese manufacturing data for August led the markets to hit the dirt. Things were also muddled in the U.S. as Fed’s policy tightening seems some way off. This sparked off global growth worries. Investors who were earlier overconfident about a September rate hike in the U.S., now started to push back the timeline to December, presuming a sluggish U.S. economic rebound. Basically, a low level of inflation continues to be a spoilsport, delaying the Fed tightening. Also, equity market correction this time looks more severe as the sentiment has turned extremely sour lately due to heightened uncertainty and a slew of negative news in Europe and Japan. Several regional equities touched multi-year low levels while the broader U.S. indices S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded largest weekly decline in almost four years in the week-ended August 21, 2015 (read: 3 Safe-Haven ETFs to Watch on Market Correction ). The Dow and the S&P appeared to be approaching their steepest monthly fall since February 2009 , while the Nasdaq was set for its highest monthly decline in around seven years. All three indices have now entered into the correction territory. Against such a backdrop, investors must be interested to know which sectors were hit hard by this sell-off. Below we have highlighted three sectors and their related ETFs’ performances. To do so, we have analyzed 16 Zacks sector ETFs and their performance over the last five-day period (as of August 25, 2015). Energy – Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE ) Oil prices, which have long been in turmoil, have recently been more active on its way down. Recently, global growth worries and supply glut globally led this liquid commodity to fall below the $40/barrel and forced it to hit a six and a half year low level. As a result, the energy sector and the related ETFs, which have been suffering for long, were hit the most in the recent sell-off (read: 4 Ways to Short the Energy Sector with ETFs ). Broader energy sector ETF, XLE was down 14.5% in the last five trading sessions. The fund is down 25.2% so far this year. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a High risk outlook. Technology – Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLK ) Tech stocks were also crushed during the market correction. The sector went into a tailspin on acute sell-offs in tech biggies like Apple, Goggle, Microsoft and IBM. As a result, the broader technology ETF XLK was down 11.2% in the last five trading sessions and is down over 8.8% so far this year. However, the fund has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 (Strong Buy). (read: ETFs in Spotlight after Apple and Microsoft Earnings ). Financial – Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLF ) As soon as the global market rout spooked investors and weighed on the Fed policy tightening decision, financial equities ETFs took a beating as this spectrum of the investing world performs better in a rising rate scenario. As a result, this Zacks Rank #1 ETF XLF shed about 11.9% in the last five trading sessions while it is down about 10% so far this year (read: 5 ETFs Strategies to Prepare for Higher Rates ). Other ETFs that were hit hard by this market correction were SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (NYSEARCA: XTN ) , Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLY ) and Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA: XLB ) . All these products seem to be losing on fears of reduced global activities and demand ahead. Original post

Best ETF Strategies To Survive Market Turmoil

This morning, US stocks are trending higher after indiscriminate and irrational selloff over the past few days. Even though things may calm down in the near term, investors are getting increasingly worried whether the 76 month long bull run is finally coming to an end. The selling was initially triggered by the surprise devaluation of the Chinese currency – which raised concerns that economic conditions in the world’s second-largest economy may be much worse than suggested by official numbers. Recent commodity rout and emerging markets slump have added to these concerns. Investors should remember that a healthy correction at times is a sign of a normal functioning market. This market had not seen a drop of 10% or more from a recent high in more than 46 months. While this sudden, steep selloff was driven more by fear than facts, it is possible that we may see more frequent declines as the Fed gets ready to raise rates for the first time in almost a decade while the economic recovery in most parts of the world remains fragile. At the same time, the US economy is growing steadily and stock valuations are not yet in the bubble territory. And while the rout started with worries over China’s economic malaise, exports to the emerging giant actually account for just 0.2% of US GDP. Amid wild rout that defies all logic, it is important for investors to stay focused on their long-term goals and not act rashly during times of panic. While it is difficult to predict whether the market has bottomed out, it is almost certain that we are likely to see more volatility ahead. Buy High Quality Assets for Longer Term Predicting stock market’s short-term moves accurately is almost impossible but stocks deliver superior returns over longer term. So, if you are an investor with a long-term horizon, then this selloff presents an excellent opportunity to buy some high-quality ETFs that are now available at deep discounts. While growth stocks outperformed till earlier this month, value stocks have delivered higher returns with lower volatility compared with growth stocks over the long term in almost all the markets studied. Ultra-cheap value ETFs like Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHV ) and Vanguard Value ETF (NYSEARCA: VTV ) are excellent choices for long-term focused portfolios. Also consider adding some low volatility ETFs – like SPDR S&P Low Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: SPLV ) and iShares MSCI Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: USMV ) – to the portfolio. These not only shine during highly volatile market environments but also deliver superior risk adjusted returns over longer term. Stay Diversified As stocks plunged, nervous investors piled into the so-called safe haven assets, particularly Treasury bonds, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note below 2% for the first time in about four months. Investors with well-diversified portfolios were obviously less impacted than those with all stocks holdings. Bonds still deserve a place in portfolios even as the Fed is on track to lift rates sometime in the coming months. Treasury bonds – in particular longer term – may continue to benefit from heavy buying by foreign investors, as long as interest rates remain ultra-low in Europe and Japan, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen and long-term inflation expectations remain benign. Shorter-term yields may however rise in anticipation of Fed funds rate hike and thus the trend of yield curve flattening may continue this year. Take a look at iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLH ) or Vanguard Long-term Government Bond ETF (NASDAQ: VGLT ) or other cheap longer-term Treasury bond ETFs. Similarly, a mix of cyclical and defensive stocks is essential for a core portfolio. My favorite ETFs are low-cost sector ETFs – Vanguard Technology ETF [(NYSEARCA: VGT )- ETF report ] and iShares Healthcare Providers ETF (NYSEARCA: IHF ), among others. Things to Know before Investing in Inverse/Leveraged ETFs If your losses are making you very nervous during times of steep declines, then it may be a better idea to add some hedging to the portfolio rather than bailing out of stocks completely. Leveraged/Inverse ETFs-like ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SH ), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF [(NYSEARCA: SDS ) – ETF report )] and ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 [(NYSEARCA: SPXU ) – ETF report )] can be effectively used by investors for short-term market timing or hedging purpose during selloffs. However, investors should remember that “timing” the market is never easy and should be prepared to monitor their positions closely and exit their short positions in case the market goes up. Please note that these ETFs are typically designed to achieve their stated performance goal on a daily basis. The performance of leveraged ETFs, if held for longer than a day, is path dependent. That means not only the level of the index at the end of the holding period, but also how the index got there will determine the performance of these ETFs. In trending markets with low volatility, compounding works in investors’ favor and hence there should be no harm in holding these instruments for longer periods. However, if the underlying index sees high volatility, compounding will work against investors and eat into returns, producing high tracking errors. Further if the index tracks a limited number of entities and/or faces contango risks, then it is safer to hold these positions just for a few days. The Bottom Line Investors should remember that patience and diversification are keys to long-term investing success. And, while it is impossible to predict which way the market will turn in the next few days, the overall outlook for US-focused stocks remains favorable in the medium-term despite global concerns. It is important for investors to stay focused on their long-term goals rather than fixating over short-term market moves. Original Post

Birchcliff Energy – Waiting For A Higher Gas Price

Summary Birchcliff’s production rate is higher than anticipated and has reached a new quarterly record. This allows the company to increase its production guidance and to reduce its capex guidance. I’m hoping for a long and harsh winter that will cause the natgas prices to spike, providing relief for Birchcliff’s balance sheet. Introduction As I remain convinced the oil and gas price won’t stay forever at the current levels (I even expect the gas price to increase a bit due to the construction of LNG plants to ship the gas to Europe and Asia where the price is 3-4 times higher), I have started to look for some interesting oil and gas companies. I came across Birchcliff Energy (OTCPK: BIREF ), a Canadian gas company (with some oil production as well) and decided to dig a bit deeper in this relatively large producer. Birchcliff is a Canadian company and has its main listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange with BIR as its ticker symbol. The average daily volume is almost 300,000 shares and the current market capitalization is approximately US$610M. The production rate continues to increase, but so does is the net debt Birchcliff had a pretty decent second quarter of this year as the average production during the quarter was almost 38,500 boe per day at an operating cost of just $4.53 per boe. This production rate is a new record for the company and emphasizes it’s still very focusing on expanding its production rate in order to build shareholder value. Source: press release In fact, the production growth was so impressive, Birchcliff’s management team has now increased the average production guidance for the fourth quarter of this year. Instead of producing an average of 39,000 boe per day, Birchcliff now expects to produce 41,000 barrels per day, a 5% increase. On top of that, I’m also expecting the production cost to continue to decrease a bit. I’m not complaining at all about the current cost of C$4.53 (US$3.4) per boe (which is an amazing result compared to the $5.25/boe in Q2 2014 and the $5.11/boe in Q1 2015), as the weak Canadian Dollar is definitely an advantage for Birchcliff Energy. (click to enlarge) Source: press release Despite the crash in the oil price (and the weaker gas price which is more important for the company as 86% of its production is natural gas), Birchcliff was able to realize a funds flow netback of just over $13 per boe which isn’t bad at all, considering the circumstances. Additionally, Birchcliff has now reduced its capital expenditure guidance from C$267M to C$250M (US$190M). This won’t be covered by the operating cash flow though as I’m not expecting the operating cash flow to be higher than C$175M (US$130M), so Birchcliff’s debt will very likely continue to increase. As of at the end of the second quarter, Birchcliff had drawn down roughly C$600M from its C$800M ($600M) credit facility, so it can draw down another C$200M (US$150M) to cover for the shortfall. The stronger-than-expected output provides a solid basis for next year Not only was Birchcliff able to increase its production guidance for the fourth quarter of the current year, this also bodes very well for next year. The increased production guidance for Q4 of 41,000 barrels per day is an ‘average’ daily production, and Birchcliff is expecting the exit production to be 41,000-42,000 boe per day, and this production increase will be underpinned by an updated of the company’s oil and gas reserves after seeing excellent production results from the horizontal wells drilled in the past 18 months. In fact, Birchcliff isn’t just hinting at a reserve increase, it says it expects the reserve increase to be ‘material’, so that should also have a positive impact on the NPV of the company as a whole. The winter season is coming closer, and those months are usually the best months for the gas price which could see a substantial price increase, boosting Birchcliff’s financial performance. It will be very interesting to see how the gas price will behave in the run-up to 2016, as a weak gas price will probably mean Birchcliff might have to defer some more capital expenditures as it knows it cannot stretch its balance sheet too much. Investment thesis Birchcliff’s financial performance will almost entirely be determined by the strength of the gas price in the upcoming winter. Whereas the gas price (Henry Hub) for delivery in September is trading at $2.64 , the futures for natural gas with delivery for January and February is trading at $3 and this will help Birchcliff’s financial performance. (click to enlarge) Source: CME Group I like Birchcliff’s limited exposure to oil (10% of its production) and focus on natural gas (86% of its output) and the next few quarters will be crucial for the company. I’m hoping for a long and harsh winter as that should bode well for all natural gas producers and result in a decent relief for its balance sheets. Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in BIREF over the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.