Tag Archives: etfs

The V20 Portfolio Week #21

The V20 portfolio is an actively managed portfolio that seeks to achieve an annualized return of 20% over the long term. If you are a long-term investor, then this portfolio may be for you. You can read more about how the portfolio works and the associated risks here . Always do your own research before making an investment. Read the last update here ! Current Allocation *Only available to Premium Subscribers Planned Transactions *Only available to Premium Subscribers ————– It’s been a while since I gave a public weekly update. Premium subscribers have continued to receive weekly updates regarding allocation and planned transactions. It was quite encouraging to have some readers email me regarding this short hiatus, I am glad that I have provided value to you. Since the last update , the V20 Portfolio rose by 12.8% while the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY ) was virtually flat. As we wrap up February, the V20 Portfolio suffered a minor setback towards the end of the month, shedding 2.3% while the S&P 500 gained a modest 1.6% over the past week. Portfolio Update When the portfolio declined significantly in January, we took the opportunity to make some moves. Now that the portfolio is rebounding, we shall sit and wait patiently. One of our minor holdings, Intelsat (NYSE: I ), reported earnings on Monday. Shares have almost halved since then, falling from $3.01 to $1.69 as of Friday, contributing to 81% of the decline over the past week. On the bright side, the company is now trading at less than 1x TTM P/E. As I’ve mentioned in previous updates, the problem with Intelsat is not a matter of profitability, but one of liquidity. As the result of the meltdown in the high yield market, it is becoming increasingly probable that a restructuring will take place due to the company’s large debt load ($15 billion), assuming current market conditions persist. While it sounds scary, it is a risk that we should be willing to take. For one, the underlying business is still generating healthy amount of cash flows. Secondly, I believe that the equity holders (Silverlake, BC Partners, and Fidelity, controlling 80% of shares) have enough incentives to put together a deal that would be favorable to shareholders in the event of a restructuring. Of course, this is not just blind faith. Given the fact that they haven’t sold shares during the IPO, it is fairly clear that it is in everyone’s best interest to not let creditors get away with a low ball offer. Furthermore, the risk to the portfolio is also contained through Intelsat’s small allocation in the V20 Portfolio (2.4%). Looking Forward While half of our holdings have reported earnings ( SAVE , ACCO , I), Conn’s (NASDAQ: CONN ) and Magicjack (NASDAQ: CALL ) (58% of long position) have yet to announce their fourth quarter results. In Conn’s case, two big questions have already been answered thanks to the company’s monthly updates. Sales have continued to grow at a rapid pace (+7.4% in Q4) and delinquency rates have started to decline. As for MagicJack, the company recently initiated two previously announced initiatives: a new service offering with Movistar and a new SMB (small medium businesses) subsidiary. There isn’t significant fixed costs for the Movistar deal, but for the SMB initiative, there will be an initial investment of around $10 million this year. However, both of these initiatives will drive growth, which is a critical component to turning around investor sentiment, an important step that could push the stock back to its fair value quickly. Performance Since Inception Click to enlarge Disclosure: I am/we are long ACCO, CONN, CALL, I, SAVE. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Video: The Devil Is In The Details

The conventional thinking is that all quantitative managers are the same – that they analyze the same data, read the same academic research, and use the same concepts to identify attractive stocks. In this video, Robert Furdak, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Man Numeric, challenges this view by arguing that ‘the devil is in the details’ and that the distinctions in how quantitative managers construct and combine models to generate trading signals are significant. To illustrate this, he looks at existing value models that most people might think would be highly correlated to show that returns become progressively better (and volatility decreases) as the value models become more evolved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The value of an investment and any income derived from it can go down as well as up and investors may not get back their original amount invested. Opinions expressed are those of the author, may not be shared by all personnel of Man Group plc (‘Man’) and are subject to change without notice.

Liquid Alternative Investments For Ordinary Investors

Barron’s did a nice special report this week on AQR’s liquid alternative investments. AQR, which is run by Cliff Asness, John Liew and David Kabiller, is a pioneer in the liquid alternatives space and manages an impressive $141 billion in assets. They also happen to be a competitor of mine. My partner, Dr. Phillip Guerra, has developed an entire suite of liquid alternative strategies based on many of the same principles used by AQR. As Barron’s writes, Since U.S. stocks peaked in July, few investments have produced strong returns. Global stocks, junk bonds, and most commodities have declined-in many cases, sharply. And many so-called alternative investments have failed to provide hoped-for diversification benefits. Just look at the big losses suffered by some notable hedge funds. The situation hasn’t been much better among liquid alternatives, or mutual funds that use hedge fund strategies such as merger and convertible arbitrage, long/short equity, and trend-following in futures markets. Yet, against this tough backdrop, a bunch of academics are delivering. Their firm, AQR Capital Management (AQR stands for applied quantitative research), is a distinctive investment manager that seeks to translate academic insights about finance and the markets-such as the appeal of value and momentum investing-into winning quantitative strategies for institutional and retail buyers… Indeed, the stock market selloff since the start of this year has shaped up as a key test of whether liquid alts can deliver the promised diversification and protect investors during downturns. Liquid-alt funds have been rightly criticized for generally disappointing returns during the recent bull market-and high fees, to boot. During a raging bull market, alternative strategies will almost always underperform… as will most traditional long-only active managers. It makes sense to dump every last cent into an S&P 500 index fund and be done. But the kind of market we’ve experienced since 2009 isn’t normal. It was a product of low valuations following the 2008 meltdown and the loosest monetary policy in history from the Fed. But with the market now in expensive territory and with the Fed’s easy money policies slowly on the way out, an alternative strategy makes all the sense in the world, at least with a portion of your portfolio. You want returns that are uncorrelated to the market. You’re not betting against the market, mind you. You’re just looking for something that marches to the beat of its own drum. I like what AQR is doing. But there’s a big problem with it: While they advertise that their alternative funds are liquid, they are all but unattainable for the vast majority of investors. The minimum investment on many of their mutual funds is as high as $1 million. We can do it better. With an investment of just $100,000 (and actually less with our robo-advisor option), we can execute a comparable strategy and do so with far lower fees. To see how our results stack up against AQR and the rest, take a look here . I’m a big believer in the benefits of a long-term buy-and-hold strategy, particularly for younger investors. But I’m also realistic and realize fully that a long-only strategy will go through long periods of underperformance. From 1968 to 1982 – a period of 14 years – long-only investors in U.S. stocks wouldn’t have earned a single red cent. Now, I have no way of knowing if we are about to enter a long dry spell like that. But if you are in or near retirement, doesn’t it make sense to have at least a portion of your portfolio in a strategy that zigs when the market zags? Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice or as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Sizemore Capital personnel and clients will often have an interest in the securities mentioned. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all Sizemore Capital investment strategies have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This article first appeared on Sizemore Insights as Liquid Alternative Investments for Ordinary Investors