Tag Archives: etf-hub

Why Do Fundamentals Matter?

With a booming market, everyone forgets fundamentals. Someone, the other day, told me that “You don’t need profits to pay bills” when talking about Amazon. If that’s not a sign of euphoria and not understanding how wealth is built, I don’t know what is. The reason fundamentals matter in the long run is that wealth is built on cash flow, profit, and overall returns. Yes, a company can profit but if you’re paying too much for that profit, it’s going to hurt you in the long run because there will be a time when your investment is out of style and everyone will revert back to fundamentals. It happens in every bear market. People flee the exciting fast growing stocks that aren’t doing as well financially to go to companies that generate cash flow and build their balance sheet. Not only in stocks. Real estate as well. The last 15 years have been a boom in real estate, even after a big bust. Real estate is driven by income. I randomly pulled 28 markets that I could think of in this country and looked at their median income growth and their real estate value growth since 1990. The direct correlation from one city to another wasn’t exactly there, but when you looked at all 28 cities as a whole, they were very much in line. Median income growth was 2.32% per year on average and the average real estate growth was 2.6% per year. Not exact, but close. During the recent 15 years of booms in major markets (that were also in my 28 city analysis), we were seeing 15-20% growth per year even though income wasn’t growing NEARLY as much. Then we saw a massive drop in prices and another rebound, so everyone assumes that the past problems were past problems. We shall see. The bottom line is that everything reverts to the mean. We are never exactly fairly valued. We are either overvalued or undervalued in every investment asset. You are either a buyer or seller of assets. It’s that simple. I choose to wait until asset prices get to the point where they are undervalued enough to make me feel that above-average returns will be experienced based on historical averages. Does it require A TON of patience? Absolutely. Is it frustrating at times? 100%. To hear the so-called “experts” tell me that I’m missing it and I don’t understand and “This time is different” has become annoying. But I stick to fundamentals. And at the end of the day, they win out. Fundamentals are the only true way to measure value. You have to find out what truly defines the price of an asset and buy when the asset is selling for below that fundamental point. Is it just one thing? No. But is it a ton of complicated points? Absolutely not. There are a few things that matter when looking at investments and it is the job of a true investor to understand what those are and where they have stood historically (not just over 25 years but over 60+ years). Share this article with a colleague

Southwest Gas Corporation: Strong Dividend Payer For The Long Term

Summary Arizona/Nevada are currently weak markets but will marginally outperform long-term. The Non-Utility business is incredibly strong and provides some geographically-diversified earnings. Expect the dividend to be increased aggressively in the coming years, growing into a more healthy yield. Southwest Gas (NYSE: SWX ) is engaged in the business of purchasing, distributing, and transporting natural gas for customers in portions of Arizona, Nevada, and California. Arizona and Nevada are the primary markets for Southwest Gas, where the company operates as the largest supplier of natural gas to residential consumers and businesses. While the business model may seem simple (buying gas and transporting to the end customer) the reality is the company must operate an intricate network of transmission mains, peak shaving/storage stations, and a web of pipelines to get natural gas from point A to point B efficiently. As you may expect, businesses like Southwest are regulated by state authorities much in the same way power-generating utilities are. Like other utilities, the company offers a safe, predictable stream of cash flow and a healthy dividend. But is the company best-of-breed? Historical Operating Results (click to enlarge) What should jump out at investors first is the growth in non-utility revenue. Long-term investors likely first entered the company for the stable income stream from the Utility business but the company has increasingly diversified its revenue base. The Non-Utility Revenue segment derives its income from a handful of operating subsidiary companies (NPL Construction, Link-Line Contractors, W.S. Nicholls Construction, and Brigadier Pipelines) that are broadly referred to as the Centuri segment. Through these subsidiaries, Southwest Energy primarily serves the hook-up needs of other energy service companies (for instance, planning and installing the natural gas lines for a new residential community). This part of the business is geographically-diversified, serving customers across the United States and parts of Canada. Unlike some utilities that run such businesses, parent company Southwest Energy is not responsible for a large portion of these revenues, making up only 12% of Centuri revenue in fiscal 2014. Given the relatively weak economic outlook for Nevada and Arizona (unemployment and net population growth remain stubbornly weak compared to national averages), it is likely that future revenue growth will likely come from this segment outside of years that see exceptional weather-related demand for natural gas. So while this operating segment is still a small contributor to profits (13% of net income in 2014), investors would be wise to keep an eye out for continued growth here. Due to recent acquisitions and solid organic growth, revenue in 2015 from this segment is set to touch $1B, a year/year revenue increase of 35%. Also of note is that Southwest Gas has been significantly increasing its investments in its business in relations to maintenance. There have been stronger scrutiny lately at a both a state and federal level relating to pipeline safety and system reliability which has led the company to significantly increase investment from 2010 levels. Contributing to this ramp-up in spending is the pending filing for a rate increase in Arizona in 2016. Accelerated capital expenditures leading into a rate increase filing is fairly commonplace within the utility industry so that the company can note the increased capital expenditure costs prior to filing. Thus, this trend isn’t changing anytime soon so don’t expect significant improvement on this line item in 2015 or 2016. The Dividend The company currently yields approximately 3% on a 50% payout ratio. This gives the company plenty of room to raise the dividend more in-line with the peer average (60-70%), which is management’s target. With a three-year dividend growth rate of over 10% currently and no slowdown expected, I think it is likely we will see the dividend growth stick to that level at a bare minimum, with annual increases averaging 12% over the next three years more likely. As with all dividend investments, I urge long-term dividend investors to look forward ten years from now or further in their planning. So while shares might not be sporting the yield of utility stalwarts like Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK ) currently, Duke has only increased the dividend 2% a year on average for the past three/five years and that is unlikely to change. Investing in a smaller company with growth ahead of it like Southwest may allow you to see your yield on cost pass Duke Energy’s in the long run. Compounding returns and accelerated dividend increases can close that gap much quicker than you may think. Conclusion At the moment, this is a long-term play. I wouldn’t buy the company for the yield today, but I certainly would consider buying it for the returns I would likely receive on my investment ten years from now. While the American Southwest is not my preferred investment region in North America, it is my second favorite. The company’s primary markets have had a tough time of it coming out of the recession, and while that story is unlikely to change short-term, I do think there will be outsized improvement here in the coming years. The Southwest remains a long-term favorite of Americans seeking lower cost-of-living and the job market has begun to show some green shoots of improvements. Broadly, my investment decisions assume continued population loss from the Northeast and Western regions and a move to the Southwest and Southeast, a trend that is solidly anchored in recent and projected data. As such, I think this is a solid play for dividend investors and the current price of about $72/share, like many utilities, represents a significant discount to what investors were paying mere months before. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Equinox Launches Systematic Global Macro Fund

By DailyAlts Staff The investment world has become a tumultuous place. In China, stocks lost nearly 30% of their value in less than a month, and despite the heavy-handed interventions of the Communist government, the country’s stock markets appear to be on the ropes again. Oil prices also slid close to 30% in July, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond has bounced between 2.2% and 2.5%, often with major moves happening in a single day. Add in the ongoing Greek debt crisis, which is far from being resolved, and it’s understandable why stocks and bonds have been increasingly volatile investments in 2015 – and why investors are looking to alternative strategies to hedge against downside risk. Global macro strategies, which seek to capitalize on the inefficiencies in long-term macroeconomic cycles, can be particularly attractive in this environment. These strategies aim to generate returns by taking long and short positions, typically using futures contracts, in global markets across asset classes: equity indexes, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. “Systematic macro” is a particular kind of global macro strategy, involving rules-based factor exposures, trend-following and counter-trend trading, rather than relying on the discretion of a portfolio manager, and investors seeking exposure to systematic macro strategies have one new option as of July 6: the Equinox IPM Systematic Macro Fund (MUTF: EQIPX ). The Equinox IPM Systematic Macro Fund pursues its investment objective of long-term capital appreciation by employing two sub-strategies: The first involves investing directly in an actively managed fixed-income portfolio consisting of cash, cash equivalents, money market funds, and U.S. Treasury debt with one year or less to maturity; while the second involves investing directly or indirectly through a subsidiary in futures contracts and other related securities. The indirect investments are managed by IPM Informed Portfolio Management AB in accordance with its Systematic Macro Trading Program, also known as the IPM Program. The IPM Program attempts to build a diversified portfolio of futures contracts consisting of a large number of uncorrelated investment ideas based on four broad fundamental themes: Value themes designed to take advantage of discrepancies between market value and longer-term “intrinsic” value; Risk premia themes designed to exploit the time-varying nature of investment opportunities and returns; Macroeconomic themes based on economic, political, and/or financial trends; and Market dynamic themes focused on investment flows, interest rate volatility, and other attributes. If the fund sounds good, be prepared to make a large investment: Shares are available in I-class only with a 1.89% net-expense ratio and a minimum initial investment of $200 million. For more information, read the fund’s prospectus . Share this article with a colleague