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3 Unique ETFs Beating The Market

With the domestic economy recovering slowly but steadily and interest rates expected to remain low in near future, the overall backdrop for U.S. stocks remains positive. But as the bull market approaches its seven year anniversary, the easy money in stocks has already been made. Global growth worries, lackluster earnings, valuation concerns, China stock market turmoil and uncertainty relating to the Fed will also continue to weigh on the market. It is thus no surprise that the broad market continues to trade sideways with lackluster returns year-to-date. But some stocks have delivered outsized returns this year. Similarly some innovative ETFs following specialized strategies or tracking high growth areas have been rewarding their investors with stellar returns in 2015. Considering their outperformance potential, these could be held as satellite holdings in the portfolio, in order to spice up overall returns. A Shining Biotech Star: The ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (NYSEARCA: SBIO ) Biotechs have been leading the bull market for the last 6-7 years. After this massive surge, valuations look lofty now by many measures, but there are still many reasons to be positive on the sector. Surging M&A activity, positive drug trial results and steady growth in the number of drugs being approved by the FDA have further boosted investor optimism and will continue to support these stocks. This fund tracks the Poliwogg Medical Breakthroughs Index. It invests mainly in mid and small cap stocks with market cap between $200 million and $5 billion. The index screens the U.S. listed biotech and pharma companies with one or more drugs in Phase II or Phase III FDA clinical trials. The index also screens for liquidity (average daily trading volume more than $1 million) and sustainability (cash for at least 2 years at their normal burn rate). Per ALPS, due to “patent cliff”, many blockbuster drugs from the 1990s and 2000s have been losing patent protection and large drug companies are struggling to replenish their pipelines. Further, due to time-consuming procedure and an alarming rate of failure for drug development, the bigger firms usually rely on new therapies processed by smaller firms that spend a lot more on R&D compared to their larger peers. This fund holds 75 stocks with Anacor Pharma (NASDAQ: ANAC ), Receptions and Horizon Pharma being the top 3 holdings. The product charges 50 bps in fees. Company specific risk is limited due to modified market cap weighting with maximum 4.5% of assets. The product launched in December last year and has gathered about $200 million in assets so far. SBIO has soared almost 52% this year. Foil Hackers with the PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (NYSEARCA: HACK ) Our world is becoming increasingly digital-bringing us many exciting opportunities and possibilities–but also creating enormous challenges. Abundance of digital information and sophisticated tools available to process and share this information make it very hard to ensure data security in this interconnected world. That is why cybersecurity threats and cyberattacks are on the rise. Consequences of hacking can be huge. Further, the threat landscape has been evolving; hackers could steal not only financial data but also critical and sensitive information that could be used for criminal or extremist activities. Per Deloitte’s Q2 CFO survey, “CFOs in North America view cyberattacks as a serious threat, but many have doubts about their organization’s level of preparedness.” Surging demand for protection against these cyber threats will continue to drive demand for spending on cybersecurity. This ETF provides exposure to a diverse group of hardware and software companies in the cybersecurity industry. The product charges an expense ratio of 75 basis points. It made its debut in November last year and has already managed to gain almost $1.4 billion in assets, thanks mainly to some high profile cyberattacks of late. The ETF holds 32 securities in its portfolio and is well spread out across holdings, due to modified equal weighting methodology. Investors should however note that some of these cybersecurity stocks have been quite hot lately, leading to valuation concerns but given surging demand for these services, the ETF could be an excellent longer-term holding for investors who can ride out shorter-term volatility. The ETF is up more than 17% year-to-date. 2015 has turned out to be a pretty good year so far for hedge funds after many years of underperformance. Gains this year have been driven partly by the booming M&A activity, particularly in the healthcare sector and savvy stock selection. Most investors would like to invest like George Soros, Carl Icahn and John Paulson but the $2.9 trillion hedge fund industry is accessible only to very wealthy investors. Further, hedge fund investing is expensive as they usually charge an annual asset management fee of 2% and a performance fee of 20% of fund’s profits (2 and 2 fees). Fortunately for ordinary investors, there are some ETFs that provide access to investing secrets of such gurus, without charging the hefty fees that their funds charge. This ETF is based on the AlphaClone Hedge Fund Long/Short Index. The index uses AlphaClone’s proprietary “Clone Score” methodology to aggregate the hedge funds ideas on a quarterly basis. Clone scores, which are calculated bi-annually, are based on hedge funds managers’ performance. Index constituents are equally weighted but can have overlap bias. The index also has a hedge mechanism built in, which is triggered on or off when the S&P 500 index crosses its 200 day moving average at any month end. If the market goes down, the index goes from long-only to market hedged (50% short exposure to S&P 500). Launched in May 2012, this product has been able to attract about $195 million in assets so far. It has 86 holdings currently with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ), Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX ) and Celgene Corp (NASDAQ: CELG ) being the top holdings. ALFA is slightly pricey, charging 95 basis points in expenses. It is up more than 8% year-to-date. Over the past three years, ALFA has climbed by 75% compared with 61% for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY). Link to the original post on Zacks.com

RHS – A Defensive ETF Rises

Summary Are these the worst of times? A worried market plays defense. Defensive sectors related to the consumer have risen to the top, such as the RHS ETF. Even though U.S. GDP data have picked up, until earnings improve, defensive sectors will have their day. Introduction When large institutions circle the wagons, they buy consumer staples, because we must spend on food, household cleaning products, over-the-counter medicines and feed that nicotine habit even in the worst of times. The Guggenheim S&P Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF (NYSEARCA: RHS ) has risen to the top of our rankings of Guggenheim funds (see Figure 1). What does this mean? (click to enlarge) Figure 1: Strongest Guggenheim ETFs (data courtesy ETFmeter.com ) The RHS ETF Holdings. The Guggenheim RHS ETF has 37 stocks, with “equal” weights. The typical weight is around 2.7%, though some are as high as 3.05 percent. Approximately 37% represent Food Products, 21% represent Beverages, 19% represent Food and Staples Retailing, 10% represent Household Products and 8% represent tobacco. The top five best trending stocks in RHS are Mondelez International (NASDAQ: MDLZ ), Brown-Forman (NYSE: BF.B ), CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS ), Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB ) and Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST ). About half of the stocks are rising strongly. The five weakest stocks, and therefore, stocks representing best “value” are Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ: GMCR ), Mead Johnson (NYSE: MJN ), WalMart (NYSE: WMT ), Sysco (NYSE: SYY ) and Whole Foods Markets (NASDAQ: WFM ). Consumer Staples: The Strongest Sector within S&P 500 We analyze the major sub-sectors within the S&P 500 index over the medium-term, and find that Consumer related sectors are at the top of the trend strength, with materials and energy at the bottom. The latter have suffered due to a stronger dollar and weakness in China. Figure 2: A summary of medium-term trend analysis of S&P 500 sectors (data courtesy etfmeter.com ). S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts Come Down and Valuations Rise In their analysis of the latest reported Q2 earnings by S&P 500 companies (see Reference 1 below), Zacks reports overwhelmingly, companies have been “guiding down” on Q3 and Q4 earnings for 2015. They estimate that the guidance is for -4% year-over-year earnings decline for Q3 earnings, and a -0.8% decline in Q4 year-over-year earnings growth. This could explain the rise in defensive stocks. In other earnings news, FactSet.com report (see Reference 2 below) that the 12-month forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 index is 16.7 per their estimates, above the 5-year and 10-year averages. Both data services expect growth to resume in 2016. However, for the rest of the year, valuations are richer than long-term trends, and earnings are expected to be lower, year-over-year. Putting the two together, the defensive posture by large investors seems justified. U.S. Economic Activity has picked up U.S. GDP data have been revised substantially in the latest releases complicating the interpretation of trends (see Reference 3 below). However, the Chicago Fed NAI shows the economy gaining strength (see Figure 3 and Reference 4 below). (click to enlarge) Figure 3: The Chicago Fed National Activity index recast in an investor-friendly format shows the economy bouncing back in Q2. The data are supportive of higher equity prices over the long-term (data courtesy ETFmeter.com ). Looking Ahead The rise in Consumer Defensive sectors reflects the uncertainty about future earnings in 2015. The economy has begun to pick up, but there is always a lag before the improvement shows up in earnings. The recent weakness in China, coupled with the knock-on effects from the Greek rebellion in Europe and a strengthening dollar (in anticipation of an interest rate hike in the U.S.) have lowered earnings guidance. Till the two opposing forces are of roughly equal strength, perhaps into 2016, consumer related stocks are likely to maintain their recent strength. References Sheraz Mian of Zacks: ” Q2 Earnings Season: All Around Weakness – Earnings Trends ” FactSet Earnings Insight ( July 24, 2015 ) Steve Liesman: ” U.S. Government revised earlier GDPs to fix anomalies in reporting ” Tushar Chande, ” SPY, QQQ, IWM: Full Trend Analysis of Major Market ETFs ” Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Surge In Peabody Adds Gains To Coal ETF: Will It Last?

Yesterday, the black days of coal suddenly brightened up despite downbeat quarterly results from Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX ) and Peabody (NYSE: BTU ). Coal producer Peabody missed on both lines and reduced the guidance. Consol Energy too fell shy of the Zacks Consensus Estimate on both counts. Both companies reported on July 28 before the market opened . Generally, such a situation results in a decline in share price, but these two coal stocks, especially Peabody took the investing world by surprise and showered gains on investors and benefitted the entire coal space and the coal ETF. BTU was up 14.15% in the key trading session of July 28 though it shed 3.3% after hours. CNX added 2.3% yesterday. The duo helped the pure-play coal ETF, Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSEARCA: KOL ), to fetch a return of 3.3% on July 28. Peabody’s loss of 58 cents per share in second-quarter 2015 was marginally narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 59 cents. Peabody had posted a loss of 28 cents in second-quarter 2014. Peabody’s quarterly revenues of $1.34 billion decreased 23.8% year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.49 billion by 10.1%. For 2015, the company lowered the total sales target in the range of 225-245 million tons from the earlier-projected range of 235-255 million. On the other hand, diversified fuel producer, CONSOL Energy, reported an adjusted loss of 37 cents per share for the second quarter of 2015. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was earnings of a penny. The company had reported earnings of 7 cents per share in the second quarter of 2014. CONSOL Energy’s quarterly revenues declined 30.8% from the year-ago quarter to $648.9 million. The top line also lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $795 million by 18.4%. What Caused Optimism? Apparently, stock market participants are hunting for the reasons that jazzed up the two stocks. Citigroup analysts argued that even after dividend removal and lackluster results, Peabody is structurally different from its peers due to its approximately $670 million potential of annual cash flow improvement in 2017 from 2015. Such a declaration from a sought-after brokerage house might be the reason for the stock’s outperformance. On the other positive front, Peabody is aggressively implementing cost-saving initiatives, has cut back on production and restructured its organization via lay-offs. The job cut is likely to save $40─$45 million per year. Cost containment efforts are also paying off for the company. Coming to Consol, the rise in shares looks more sensible as the company has been shifting its focus to natural gas from the more struggling coal space. This diversified energy producer is well-placed to cash in on any pickup in commodity prices. ETF Impact While we are not hopeful of the sustainability of this upbeat momentum, as of now the $64 million-coal ETF was the clear beneficiary of this sudden euphoria. Both Consol and Peabody have decent exposures in the coal ETF. Consol takes the fourth spot with 6.05% exposure while Peabody accounts for just 1.2% weight. The 31-stock fund holds a Zacks ETF Rank of #5 (Strong Sell) with a ‘High’ risk outlook. The fund is down over 33% so far this year. Original post . Share this article with a colleague