Cisco Stock Jumps 10% On Q2, But Uncertainties Weigh As U.S. Slows
Cisco Systems ( CSCO ) stock vaulted up 10% in afternoon trading Thursday on the heels of a well-received Q2 report Wednesday afternoon that showed China growth strong for the networking products maker, even as the U.S. fell. The analysts lining up Thursday to pat Cisco on the back for improving performance belied some weakness that they and Cisco both acknowledged, like falling revenue from its No. 1 line of business, switches for big telecoms, data centers and local area networks (LANs). Pacific Crest rates Cisco overweight, and William Blair has it at outperform, like Bernstein. Jefferies has upgraded Cisco to a buy, but Needham calls it a hold, and Nomura stands neutral. “There’s certainly a lot of uncertainty out there,” Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins told analysts after disclosing fiscal Q2 earnings and sales that beat Wall Street views , along with current-quarter guidance that also beat the Street. Even Jefferies analyst George Notter hung his upgrade not merely on Cisco’s strength. “With the recent swoon in the share price, we think the risk/reward is attractive, and we’re upgrading the name to a buy,” he wrote in a research note issued before Cisco trading opened with a 9.1% jump in the stock market today . Cisco was one of the few big ups in a down market Thursday morning. Rival Juniper Networks ( JNPR ) slipped before noon but was up fractionally in afternoon trading. “Our (Cisco) upgrade is driven, in part, by our view that the downside in the stock is limited,” Notter said. “We realize this is a counter-intuitive point of view in the current environment. Key elements of this perspective: 1) the stock is trading at historically cheap levels (at) 6.4 times our base business 2017 EPS projection; 2) we believe the company — in the event of a more significant macroeconomic slowdown — will protect earnings power by managing their cost structure aggressively; 3) the dividend increase — just raised with last night’s EPS conference call — also helps set a floor for the stock; 4) our concerns about the company’s BRIC-M (Brazil, Russia, India, China and Mexico) exposure are reduced — the January results showed growth in these areas of the world; and 5) the risk around the January EPS print is behind us.” Cisco’s biggest line of business, switching, fell 4% year over year in the fiscal second quarter, ended Jan. 23. The BRIC-M exposure — especially in China, where economic growth has slowed and stock markets have dragged down global equities — stood out from Cisco’s post-earnings conference call Wednesday night. CEO Robbins said business had picked up in China in January at the same time customers elsewhere were delaying deals. “Perhaps one of the biggest surprises in the quarter was continued strength within China and India, which contributed to a continued recovery in Asia-Pacific, Japan and China (APJC), which increased by 10% year over year,” said Pacific Crest analyst Brent Bracelin in a research note. “This was the highest growth rate Cisco has witnessed in this region in more than two years.” Robbins told the analysts that APJC was in “recovery” and that in China, “as we navigated our way through the last three years, the team did a great job. They diversified our business strategy across segments,” including enterprise and commercial, and expanded into urban markets smaller than China’s largest cities where it initially gained a toehold against Chinese telecom tech giant Huawei. APJC revenue grew 10% year to year and 7% sequentially in fiscal Q2, Cisco said. In the Americas, quarterly sales fell 3% from a year before and 11% from fiscal Q1. Sales were flat by both measures in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). The Americas typically account for about 60% of Cisco revenue, APJC about 15% and EMEA 25%. By segment, Cisco said service provider video revenue (without the recently sold TV set-top box business) rose the most year to year in Q2, by 37% to $569 million, followed by 11% growth in security to $462 million; 5% in next-generation network routing to $1.845 billion; 3% growth in collaboration to $1.019 billion; no growth in wireless at $613 million; 3% shrinkage in data center revenue to $822 million; and 4% shrinkage in its largest segment, switching, to $3.483 billion. Excluding the set-top box business, total revenue grew 2% to $11.834 billion. Q2 earnings per share rose 7.5% to 57 cents. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected 54 cent EPS ex items on revenue of $11.75 billion. For fiscal Q3, Cisco guided to EPS minus items of 54 cents to 56 cents on revenue up 1% to 4%. Analysts estimated 54 cents on a 0.8% decline in sales.