Tag Archives: earnings-center

Time To Bring Active Back Into A Portfolio?

The U.S. stock market has advanced steadily over the past six years, a rally fueled partly by unusually accommodative monetary policy and notable for its near absence of volatility. But while stocks in general have rallied since the economic recovery began to take hold in 2009, many active portfolio managers have struggled to deliver investor returns in excess of the broader market, according to a BlackRock analysis of data accessible via Bloomberg. Many factors have been cited for this persistent underperformance , including higher fees and risk aversion in the aftermath of the financial crisis. However, another contributing factor has arguably been the Fed’s extraordinarily easy monetary policy suppressing volatility and hindering active managers’ ability to generate excess returns via security selection and portfolio tilts. Regardless of the cause, the value proposition of active management simply hasn’t materialized in recent years. However, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) poised to begin raising rates as early as next month , investors will have to adjust to more modest returns from U.S. stocks as well as brace for heightened volatility. This could create an opportunity for an active management approach. As Kurt Reiman and I write in our new Market Perspectives paper, ” A Quantum of Solace: Can the return of volatility revive active management “, we may be entering a more favorable environment for active manager performance. Based on our analysis using Bloomberg performance data for the S&P 500 Index back to the mid-1990s, there’s some evidence that managers’ ability to beat benchmarks comes in cycles. In fact, two somewhat interrelated variables do a reasonably good job of explaining the performance of active managers relative to their benchmarks: the annual change in volatility and the annual change in cross-sectional dispersion. (Cross-sectional dispersion measures the spread of asset returns or, in the case of the S&P 500 Index, the tendency of individual company returns to diverge from the average index return.) As the chart below shows, we found that periods of rising volatility and heightened cross-sectional dispersion coincided with manager outperformance in large-cap U.S. stocks. (click to enlarge) Looking forward, both volatility and cross-sectional dispersion are likely to eclipse the levels experienced in the past few years for large-cap U.S. stocks. This means that, in an environment where returns are harder to come by, investors may want to consider an active manager to source some returns and take idiosyncratic risk. That said, we’re not advocating that investors abandon the benchmark-replicating approach. With bull market and economic expansion more mature, blending active management exposures – whether through actively-managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), multi-asset managers, traditional active equity managers or other sources – with benchmark-replicating vehicles will become increasingly important for meeting return objectives and controlling risk. The bottom line: The more muted return prospects for traditional assets from here and rocky road ahead warrant a more thoughtful approach to blending active and passive investing in a portfolio . Kurt Reiman, a Global Investment Strategist at BlackRock working with Chief Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich, contributed to this post. This post originally appeared on the BlackRock Blog.

Sensible Market Timing

By Carl Delfeld Investing advice is a big business. Every day, investors are swamped with advice and ideas from thousands of experts. But I’ve noticed that very few are willing to even try to accomplish the most important task of an advisor – to help their clients avoid the sharp downturns that devastate portfolios and wealth. I’m not talking about day trading or other short-term strategies here, but rather educating the average investor so he or she can see the more enduring swings in the market. As legendary tycoon and investor, Sir James Goldsmith put it: The job of an investment company is to decide to invest in the right thing in the right place at the right time. But the right thing is the least important. If you picked the very best share in St. Petersburg in 1917 you could be the greatest genius in the world and still go bust… You have to be able to see the swings in the market. One common mantra of gurus is that stock prices follow earnings. This adage also applies to specific companies and the market as a whole. And we all know that Sir James Goldsmith is absolutely right that a sharply down market pulls almost all companies down – even those with rising earnings. So I found it interesting that a firm I greatly respect, Encima Global, recently came out with a cautionary message on U.S. equities. Below is a brief summary of why it thinks that stocks may be facing some rough times ahead: Weak earnings. Pro-forma earnings have appeared strong, but companies are presenting “constant currency” earnings. Actual revenues have been shrinking as expected, due to the sharp decline in world dollar GDP in 2015. For example, McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD ) reported constant currency sales growth of 7% (year over year in the quarter ending September 30), whereas actual revenue growth was -5%. Weak earnings prospects. 2016 world dollar GDP, the platform for corporate earnings, will be roughly at 2013’s $75.5 trillion level, yet expectations for the S&P 500’s dollar earnings are way above 2013. Weak U.S. investment and growth prospects. Today’s GDP data found that business’s fixed investment contributed only 0.3% to Q3 growth. That’s consistent with the weakness in orders for capital goods (orders have been below shipments for seven of the last eight months, signaling a slowdown ahead). Weak global growth. Japan looks to have fallen into a recession again. The growth outlook for Latin America continues to get worse, in part due to low commodity prices and lack of structural reforms. Europe’s growth has remained stubbornly weak, as well. The geopolitical risks are high. There’s the need for new leadership in Saudi Arabia, Iran’s rhetoric, issues in Syria, Iraq, and Russia, and tension in the South China Sea, to name a few. A negative change in technical factors. Equities often take a rest after going on a tear, as the S&P 500 did in October. Market breadth has been weak. Mid-cap stocks and the Dow transports underperformed the S&P 500 since the September 29 low. Valuations and debt burdens. In the end, we think equity prices will react to declining earnings prospects (prices too high versus declining earnings, especially if earnings are adjusted for quality deterioration). This is all important information and it may be on the mark, but it begs the question – what should you do about it? You may want to raise some cash by selling some U.S. stocks. Perhaps rotate some of this capital into out-of-favor markets like commodities or emerging markets. You might also want to put in place or tighten trailing stop losses to limit downside risk. Link to the original post on Wall Street Daily .

The Recent Insider Selling Tells You Zip. Insider Buying Says Much More

In the ongoing debate about whether stocks are cheap or too expensive, the bears got some assurance from news that insider selling is on the rise. Investors often watch what insiders do because insiders are supposed to be better informed about their companies than the rest of us. So if insiders are selling, it must be because they know stocks are overvalued. Right? Not necessarily. I’m in the camp that believes stocks in general are too expensive right now. I would not be surprised to see another round of insider selling in the near future. Yet insider selling activity has no bearing on my view. On the contrary, I believe insider selling tells us very little about overvaluation. That’s because there are so many reasons why insiders might sell stock. A conviction that the stock is overvalued is only one possibility. Insiders might sell stock simply to raise cash. After all, insiders sometimes receive a relatively large proportion of their total compensation in the form of stock or options. Actual cash might make up a smaller proportion. So if these insiders want to buy a new home or send their kids to college, they might sell stock to raise cash. Insiders might also sell stock to diversify. It’s simply too risky for anyone to have all of their labor and most of their wealth tied up in just one company. It makes perfect sense for insiders to sell stock every once in a while to spread their wealth into other assets. Here’s yet one more reason why insiders might sell. Many employees are compensated at least in part with stock options. As a result, they can get hit with a tax liability when they exercise their options. They might sell some of the stock they received from exercising the options just to pay Uncle Sam. That’s not to say that a sudden spike in the amount of insider selling couldn’t be something to worry about. However, knowing that there are so many reasons why insiders might sell, I have to conclude that insider selling activity is not a useful signal of a market top. Insider buying is another story entirely. There are many reasons why insiders might sell, but there is only one major reason why insiders would buy. They buy because they believe the stock is undervalued. It’s true that a new member of the board of directors might be encouraged to buy some stock just for appearance’s sake, but that’s an exception to the rule. If insiders are using their own cash to buy stock, that a bullish signal. This just happened at one of the companies on my Bottom Line’s Money Masters recommended stock list. This company recently announced quarterly earnings that fell short of expectations. As often happens in such cases, the stock sold off in response. Yet my analysis convinced me that this stock is extremely undervalued. Apparently, several insiders agree. At least five of them purchased shares following the selloff. The CEO bought the most, spending $185,000 of his own money. That might not seem like a lot, but he didn’t acquire the stock as a result of an employee ownership plan or the exercise of options. He made a direct purchase on the open market using real cash. This CEO already owned a large stake in the company. The fact that he is willing to add to that stake should send a clear signal to other shareholders that the guy running the company is convinced the stock is cheap – so convinced that he is putting his money where his mouth is.