Tag Archives: doug-eberhardt

ETF Research Trading Analysis For 10-27-2015

Summary We took profit from both JNUG and JDST on Tuesday. DWTI doing well for us along with DGAZ. Reminder it is Fed week and expect some volatility – which we don’t mind. (Subscribers received early access to this article here .) INDEXES The markets opened down a bit on Monday as housing starts fell more than expected. It tried a couple of times to get going but it just couldn’t get over the hump. The ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: TQQQ ) was the only one that could move higher ending positive for the day. If the market opens higher tomorrow I would look to trade the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (NYSEARCA: SVXY ) and the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: FAS ). It’s Fed week and I said in Sunday’s article to subscribers I like the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (NYSEARCA: UVXY ) during Fed week as we usually get a lot of volatility, opened at 28.50 Monday and went as high as 29.65, closing near the high of the day at 29.51. I would be a buyer over 29.65 Tuesday. If it gaps up buy the higher high. CHINA/RUSSIA/EMERGING As I wrote in my Current Thoughts on Monday referencing China, the country has some big issues ahead of it with its shadow banking that we here in the U.S. have already experienced. I have said for the longest time I like the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: YANG ) on dips but thought we would get a reversal to play with a potential U.S. market move higher. Two days in a row of weakness and we may be done with the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: YINN ). I am still holding out hope but the truth about China is going mainstream now. I even said that would be back over 100 again and I think it will at some point. The Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: RUSS ) has really lagged the last run up and I would be a buyer over 31 Tuesday. The Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: RUSL ) is still a buy over 17.24 but these two have not triggered green on the weekly yet. The Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: EDC ) opened lower and this uncertainty is causing me a little concern in that the Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: EDZ ) may now become the play. We’re only 3 points away from a run in but first need to take out 39.20. Being that it is Fed week, either one of these can offer some trades on a higher high. With the Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: BRZU ), we stopped out with some profit Friday and it did open higher at 18.69 Monday and went as high as 17.28 but then fell with the overall market. If you did get in again, it may have got you a little profit but I can’t say I like it now. Volume was pathetic Monday. INTEREST RATES As you know, I have been saying for 6 months now I like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) on the dips but thought the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA: TBT ) would move higher with a turn in the market. With it gapping down at the open Monday was obviously taken off the table. Interest rates on the 10-year were down 1.4% Monday and TLT is looking closer to a run once it gets over 126.61. First up, the 124.55 resistance. PLEASE NOTE: I have to keep reminding everyone that during Fed week, we get more volatility than normal. Monday was the first example with a reversal of Friday’s run up. Tuesday, we could very well get a reversal higher and it’s easy to switch sides after recognizing it. But today’s report is written mostly with the assumption that Tuesday’s micro trend is continued. In the Trading room, I call it like I see it during market hours and it was a good day for us Monday. ENERGY I said at the close on Friday I like the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil ETN (NYSEARCA: DWTI ) at 109.80 where it ended the day. It gapped up Monday and I emphasized in the room that I still like it and gave again my target at some point of 200 again, which we played the last run up to over 200. It closed at the high and is up to 116.81 after hours. Stay long and strong now. Dips will come to try and shake you out and if you want to take profit then do so as you can always get back in. Past 124.25, which may act as resistance, I would stay in for a nice ride. For the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN (NYSEARCA: DGAZ ) I said to stay long and strong in Sunday’s report and move stops up to where you lock in profit now or 9.74 if conservative. Monday, we got the gift of a gap up to 11.05 and it never looked back. I said in the room Monday a couple of times to lock in some profit as it got to the upper $11s and again just over $12. We have had a 30% run in this and nothing goes straight up. As such, I have put the VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN (NYSEARCA: UGAZ ) on the one to watch list. The Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: GASL ) I keep saying another day another 4% lower and Sunday I wrote, “I would only run from it.” Monday for the first time in a while, I don’t have to say it lost 4%, as it lost much more down 17.84% for the day. I am now putting it on the watch list as the volume increased which is either sellers or some buyers coming in. We can get a 10% to 20% bounce in this quickly but again, keep in mind it is a lower volume play. I only want to buy it on an up day, not chase it down. The Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: ERY ) is the one making higher highs for us. Be a buyer over 24.55 Tuesday. It is 24.43 after hours. Energy not behaving very bullish and looks like it wants to run. Some resistance around 28 and then 30. GOLD MINING RELATED ANALYSIS The Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: JDST ) gave way to the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: JNUG ) in the trading room Monday and we scalped a little off on an intraday reversal. Then we got full on long again and I recommended holding. We have to get through 24.50 now and then 25.35 and 26.74. Past 30.58 we are off to the races. I have been waiting for a while now to get long and stay long and even though reversals come, the dollar is poised to move higher and we just need gold and silver to move lower. As you can see from the first sentence though, even though I have been waiting for a great trade in, I can still trade the other side for profit if it comes. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge)

ETF Leveraged Daily Trading Service For 10-15-2015

Summary UVXY continued to give us nice profit. Gold miners are still looking up but is caution warranted? Call for leaning short the market came to fruition. (Subscribers received early access to this article here .) INDEXES Yesterday I said it’s hard to be bullish on anything with the kind of a market turnaround we had on Monday and that overall I still see problems all over the place. Today we got a worse than expected retail sales report and lower producer prices fitting perfectly in with my deflationary scenario. The market at first shrugged it off in a bizarro world fashion, but then began to fall, rebound and fall again. I said to keep an eye on (NYSEARCA: UVXY ) for clues and 2 days ago, before broke 35 I said it will give us a tremendous buy. Today broke over 40 before settling in at the close at 38.21. It’s down a little after hours and right now in buy the dip mode. That run up could have been caught for a trade once it broke 37.92 using the higher high rule. I caught it for almost 2 points, but I also like taking profit and do so more quickly on as it can turn on you sometimes. While news can cause a short term move one way or the other, we saw (NYSEARCA: TWM ) trigger as a buy at tomorrow’s open if it is higher than today’s close per the Trading Rules. Keep an eye on China and Europe for some direction if aggressive and looking to go long all of the short market indexes that are green on the monthly; (NYSEARCA: TZA ), (NYSEARCA: SPXS ), (NYSEARCA: SPXU ), (SQQ), (NYSEARCA: SDOW ), (NYSEARCA: SDS ), (NYSEARCA: QID ), (NYSEARCA: DXD ), and (NYSEARCA: FAZ ). (NASDAQ: BIS ) bucked the trend today but is still a good potential if the market continues to fall. I have to lean towards this trend but conservative investors will wait till we get more of these monthlies turning green on the weekly again before jumping in. (NYSEARCA: SVXY ) turning red on the weekly helps with our trend analysis to lean short the indexes. A few more greens on the weekly and we can get our more reliable trend to trade again instead of the last month of volatility. CHINA/RUSSIA/EMERGING I was a little early in (NYSEARCA: YANG ) and (NYSEARCA: RUSS ) yesterday as they both opened lower and stayed lower despite the move down in U.S. markets. I am still a fan despite today’s price action. Yesterday I said I would be a buyer of (NYSEARCA: EDZ ) if over 40.10. It only got to 39.71 which I would be a buyer over that price tomorrow. INTEREST RATES Yesterday I said I still like (NYSEARCA: TLT ) for a longer term trade as I have been saying for months. It was up 1.08% today and still liking it. ENERGY Yesterday I said I would go long (NYSEARCA: DWTI ) over 95.50 tomorrow. It opened at 96.22 and moved as high as 98.39 before closing lower at 94.46. I would buy (NYSEARCA: UWTI ) over 11.45 tomorrow for a possible few day trade and see if we can’t get back down to the 60’s to swallow up and ride to the 100’s again. I would however still be a buyer of over 98.39 but only for a scalp. I don’t think we’re quite ready to go for the home run yet. (NYSEARCA: UGAZ ) I said I would wait till Thursday’s report for some action to trade. I want to lean long but why gamble? Wait for the report to come out and jump on the higher high per the Trading Rules. (NYSEARCA: ERX ) I said yesterday we need a little more patience for a trend to set up. It may have started today as it moved up 2.4%. For aggressive traders I would attempt a long tomorrow at the open if it is higher than today’s close of 34.53 or if conservative wait till it is over 34.96 to go long. GOLD MINING RELATED ANALYSIS Yesterday for the miners I said we may still have one last push higher to grab the last bit of bulls for gold and silver and take them to the woodshed one last time. (NYSEARCA: GLD ) joined (NYSEARCA: SLV ) and turned green on the weekly and monthly now and (NYSEARCA: GDX ), (NYSEARCA: NUGT ), (NYSEARCA: JNUG ) and (NYSEARCA: GDXJ ) all had great days. They probably have a little more room to the upside here as we approach the $1,200 to $1,220 mark in gold I have been looking for. The dollar moved lower on the data that came out today and many think a rate hike is even further off because of it and view this as positive for gold. I said I will be all over (NYSEARCA: JDST ) soon enough and if you read my Current Thoughts the last week you’ll know how I view the dollar and Euro and how I see things unfolding for precious metals. A few days ago I said you can’t ignore this strength in the metals and miners and today would indeed qualify as a “push higher.” Expect a little continuation and then a pullback and look for the potential of a higher high in . I won’t say we’ll catch the exact moment will turn higher, but we’ll come close. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge)