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The Generation Portfolio: Wells Fargo, Disney, MFA Financial, Bristol-Myers Squibb

Summary Last week provided some good buying opportunities, but they became fewer as the week went along. I used the market volatility to add Disney, Wells Fargo, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and MFA Financial to the Generation Fund. The next two weeks are likely to provide more buying opportunities as the markets strive for clarity from the Fed about the timing of the first rate hike. As I explained at some length in my recent article ” The Generation Portfolio ,” I am managing a portfolio of stocks in which I do not have a personal interest for another party. The goal of the portfolio is to create a low-risk income generating machine populated with a core of Quality Stock plays. I began the portfolio from scratch during the week of 24 August 2015, though it had a large legacy position of Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F ) stock that is untouchable. I will use these updates to show what I have done with the positions and give my general strategy and thoughts on the market. Market Summary The week of 24 August 2015 was volatile. The Friday before, the market sold off heavily, and anxiety built up during the weekend. Monday morning saw a “flash crash” in which stocks and other securities either opened late or opened with unusual drops in price. However, those prices easily were the lows of the entire week. The next several days were extremely volatile, with the market rallying into a status quo Friday. For the week, the market was up slightly, but overall the market remains well off its highs. Long-Range Objective for the Generation Fund I intend to form a hard core of at least 50%-75% Quality Stocks, and around that orbit a number of more speculative REITs and other plays for cash flow. This objective is subject to tweaking. Transactions I was unable to log in first thing Monday morning, like many other traders. Once I got in, the market was too volatile for me to get a good read, so I placed no trades that day. On Tuesday afternoon, the market seemed to be providing some more good opportunities. I placed four limit orders and picked up average-sized positions (as discussed in my previous article) in the following: Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC ) Disney (NYSE: DIS ) MFA Financial (NYSE: MFA ) Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE: BMY ) Those positions remain in the account and, including the Ford stock, are the only positions I am tracking here (there also are some other minor legacy positions). Those positions constitute roughly 10% of the entire tradeable funds as of the time of writing, the rest of the Generation Portfolio remains in cash. Analysis of Trades Due to the subsequent market rally on Wednesday and Thursday, all new positions in the Generation Portfolio show a profit. Basically, with few exceptions, the market lifted all boats on those days. This simply illustrates that timing is the most important part of trading, and you don’t need to be much of a stock picker if you can ride the general market waves higher. I placed all the trades on Tuesday, using limit orders. With a few hours left in the trading day I staggered the limit price distance from then-current prices, not expecting to pick up all four unless there was a major sell-off in the final hour of trading. So, one order was roughly .25% below the current price of the stock, the other .50% below, and so forth. Normally, those types of orders would not hit due to lack of volatility. As it turned out, a major sell program hit an hour before the close of trading, and – to my surprise – all four limit orders hit, the final one a limit order I had set a full 1% below the market price at the time, were filled. Reasons for Picking Up Those Stocks Basically, as events subsequently transpired, I could have bought practically anything when I did and the rising market would have turned them into quick winners. I consider BMY, DIS and WFC to be “Quality Stocks” as I have defined that term in my recent article linked above, and all were down substantially from their highs when I placed my limit orders. As for MFA, I recently wrote about that mortgage REIT here . It has been around as long as Annaly (NYSE: NLY ), surviving numerous Fed actions, giving me confidence in its survivability come what may. It also appeared to be heavily oversold on the chart, more so than the other REITs I am interested in. Quality of the Trades Overall, it was a successful week. My intention was to go slower than turned out to be the case in populating the Generation Portfolio, spreading it out over time more with maybe one transaction a week, but the opportunities proved irresistible. As the old military aphorism goes, no plan survives contact with the enemy. Regrets were entirely along the line of missed opportunities. I intended to pick up some Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ), but never found a comfort zone with it. Most of the huge bargains that some traders were bragging about during the happened only during the first half hour of trading, when I was off-line. Still, I should have grabbed some, and that is the main regret for the week. Overall, only buying 10% of the Generation Portfolio’s tradeable value (less the Ford position) during a week of such bargains may seem like a missed opportunity. Perhaps it was, but I anticipate further volatility ahead, as discussed below. If not, there is nothing wrong with waiting. The Week Ahead The market likely is to be preoccupied throughout the week of 31 August with the August employment numbers that are due out on Friday. The importance of that report was heightened by an interview given on Friday 28 August to CNBC by Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, and other remarks that he made on Saturday . While, as one would expect, Fischer was cagey about the likelihood of a September rate hike, one thing that he said during his CNBC interview stood out. When asked about the importance of data between the time of the interview and the Fed meeting on 15/16 September in influencing a rate hike at that meeting, Fischer said: Well, we’ve got to take data into account. Those are the only things we really have, that and our economic analysis. And if a decision is close, it will be influenced by data that [have] come in recently. Pretty much everybody expects the decision to be “close.” Since the Fed has not made a decision about rates, and Fischer stated that the data leading into the data could be decisive, that puts immense influence on the Friday jobs report. Given that statement by vice chair Fischer, I would not be surprised by some volatility both ahead of the report and immediately after its release. The consensus figure for the September 2015 jobs report is 223k jobs added, up from the 215k figure reported in August. The market easily could interpret anything above 190k jobs added as locking in Fed action. The other major market-moving event in September, aside from the Fed meeting itself, could be the government deadline for raising the debt ceiling. The Congressional Budget Office projects the debt ceiling being hit either in mid-November or December. With several US Senators running for President, Presidential politics could enter the Calculus and cause some posturing that rattles the market as has happened before. One other major factor is the statistical fact that, historically, September is the worst month for stock gains. Combined with volatility overseas in China and other Asian markets, September could provide several buying opportunities. Universe of Stocks Under Consideration The stocks at the top of my list change slightly from week to week: AAPL, MMM, JPM, JNJ, NKE, ABT, UNH, XOM, CVX, PG, PSX, UTX, EMR, PEP, GILD, UNP, RDS.B, KMI, CAT, KO, T, STWD, OXY, COP, KKR, NFLX, WMT, PANW, MO, HD, PBY, EV, SCG, DLR, KSS, BPL, OHI, ETN, PFE, GIS, KMB, CAH, TOL, FCX, CYS, NLY, AGNC. These are stocks that I am most interested in and have performed due diligence on, but market opportunities may present in other stocks as well. Important Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates 2 September: Baxter International (NYSE: BAX ) PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE: PEP ) Coca-Cola Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: CCE ) 9 September: Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY ) 11 September: The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO ) General Discussion I was caught completely flat-footed by the market break on Monday 24 August 2015. After I finally got into my account, prices were racing higher like a car speeding along without a driver. Charts were taking several minutes to call up, making them useless. Basically, Monday was a lost day for trading, but fortunately there was no harm done. The major lesson of the market during the week was that corporations are watching their stock prices closely for opportunities. The Goldman Sachs buyback desk had its busiest day ever on Wednesday, when the market finally resolved its weakness to the upside. People always talk about a government “plunge protection team,” but the true supporters of the market are companies using cheap credit to buy back their own stock. My sense is that anything related to financials is going to be weak during early September. While some asset classes, such as REITs, appear to have priced in much of a September rate hike, other classes might not have done so yet. When vice chair Fischer said during his CNBC interview that market volatility would play a role in whether the Fed acted, I was surprised. That seems like a screwy rationale for raising or not raising rates. He may have said that just to calm the markets, which seemed to be a major objective of Fed personnel past and present during the week. If the Fed needs market volatility to postpone a rate hike, I’m sure the market would be happy to oblige. The key for the market is the uncertainty about what might happen, not what will actually happen. Fischer eliminated one potential uncertainty when he said that rates would rise in 25 basis point increments, but that was a minor point. At this point, it may be just as important what the Fed says about a second rate hike as whether it does one in September at all. The market hates uncertainty, so my focus this week heading into the all-important jobs number will be on interest-rate sensitive stocks such as banks and REITs. It is more likely than not that a new trading range will develop in the vicinity of current levels. My eye, along with everyone else’s, has been on the energy sector. As usual, the market seized on some transient concern – Saudi Arabian troop movements, a call for an emergency meeting of OPEC – to force shorts to cover. The supply/demand imbalance continues, though, so unless the energy market finds some new worry, the current rally is likely to fizzle. In addition, the Iran deal is a lock, and that will release even more oil into the market, so I am in no rush to add the oil plays I covet, including Exxon (NYSE: XOM ) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX ). The bottom line is that the market has its eye on the Fed, and until that clarifies, the trend into the end of the year will remain unclear. Actionable Ideas I still will be keeping an eye on Apple for any buying opportunities. The REITs such as CYS, NLY and AGNC are buys on dips, as is OHI. Realty Income (NYSE: O ) I would like in the low 40s. PEP will be of interest on a dip into the 80s, where it has support. MMM around 140 would be interesting, as would JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM ) in the low 60s. Looking through the charts, there still are a number of stocks near enough to their peaks that further distribution would not be unusual at all. September definitely is a month to be opportunistic. Conclusion Last week was a successful week of trading, but volatility still looms from multiple sources. Anyone thinking that we are headed straight back to all-time highs is much more bullish than I am. The next two weeks are more likely to be a good time to be opportunistic and grab some plays on dips, especially as the market dates of doom – the jobs report and the Fed meeting – approach. Disclosure: I am/we are long CYS. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: The positions being discussed are for a portfolio I manage for someone else, not my own holdings.

What Is A Quality Stock And When Are They Buys

Summary I give my definition of what a “quality stock” means and provide some examples; The importance of brands to a stock’s value is shown, as well as how market dominance of companies such as Apple and Disney is an important, but not necessary, factor; I set forth some guidelines on the best times to pick up quality plays and the best times to avoid them. I recently wrote an article, ” The Generation Portfolio ,” in which I set forth my goal of finding quality stocks for an account I am setting up from scratch. Since I did not explain there what I meant by “quality,” and instead only gave a list of stocks that I considered quality plays, someone asked me what I meant by the term. Since we are all looking for quality plays, below I will set forth my own ideas of what I consider to be quality plays, and when they are – and are not – attractive pick-ups. What is a “Quality Stock” The term “Blue Chip Stock” came out of the 1920s, when Oliver Gingold of Dow Jones coined the term based upon the use of blue chips in poker for the highest dollar amounts. Generally, the term is used for stocks that are considered to be of the highest quality. In the past, the stock of companies such as IBM (NYSE: IBM ), General Motors (NYSE: GM ) and General Electric (NYSE: GE ) were treated reverently as the ultimate Blue Chips, producing high returns year after year. They became household names, and the best of the best received the even higher accolade of “Bellwether Stocks,” meaning they were considered leading indicators for the market as a whole. A few decades ago, for instance, radio reports regularly would report how IBM was doing along with the major averages. Just throwing a term around and applying it to certain companies, though, doesn’t explain what the term actually means or make it useful. Beyond the amorphous attributes of being successful and well-known companies, there is no hard and fast definition of Blue Chips. We can, however, come up with a working definition for our own use, and we will call them “Quality Stocks.” The Importance of Brands Brands distinguish one product from another. As customers use a company’s product, they form impressions about the product’s quality and value. Over time, those associations transfer to the name of the product itself, and thence to the company. That is how a brand is built. A brand can come to stand for an entire industry, which is the Nirvana of branding. Examples are “Xeroxing” for paper copying, “coke” for soft drinks, and “Kleenex” for hand tissues. A more recent example would be “googling” for performing an online search. Nobody has enough money to convince people to use a company name for a common activity, that has to come from the product’s intrinsic quality. It takes a lot of time, money and awesome execution to create a top brand. Some of the best brands become global, such as Disney (NYSE: DIS ) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ). Along with Coke, those in my opinion are the most famous brands in the world. However, there are quantifiable ways of quantifying a brand’s value, and it is not just a matter of opinion. Forbes lists the most valuable brands as follows: Apple Microsoft Google Coca-Cola IBM McDonald’s Samsung Toyota General Electric Facebook Disney AT&T Amazon.com Louis Vuitton Cisco BMW Oracle Nike Intel Wal-Mart Verizon American Express Honda Mercedes-Benz Budweiser The main tip-off that this is a solid list is that you probably recognize every name on there. People around the world also will nod their heads in recognition at Honda or Nike or any of the other names. When someone in Russia recognizes a company’s name just as much as someone in Texas, you have something of truly lasting value. A Good Brand Is Not the Same as a Good Stock Just because a brand is a household name doesn’t mean its company is a good value. Kleenex is a registered trademark of Kimberly-Clark Worldwide, Inc., and everyone knows what a kleenex is. Now, Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB ) is a fine company whose stock I personally like, but having a top brand doesn’t mean that anyone need rush to their broker to place an order to buy the company. A top brand is just a starting point when identifying quality stocks. Brands evolve over time. Several of the top brands listed above didn’t even exist 20 years ago, such as Google (NASDAQ: GOOG )(NASDAQ: GOOGL ) and Facebook (NASDAQ: FB ). Others go back over a hundred years, such as General Electric. Age alone has something to do with it, but new top brands burst on the scene with regularity. A company that dominates a valuable niche will quickly become a top brand. The Internet as we know it is barely 20 years old, yet there are several purely Internet-based companies among Forbes’ list of top brands. That shows how quickly a top brand can be established – or fall off the list. Determining which company will dominate a niche and provide the most valuable service within it can be tricky unless the company has been around for a hundred years. Everybody recognizes that General Electric, established by Thomas Edison, dominates its field, but Facebook came to prominence less than a decade ago when it surged past MySpace, which previously dominated the social media niche, around 2009-2010. Now, MySpace is an also-ran and Facebook is on the list of top brands. It is important to do due diligence to make sure that a brand is healthy. A dominant company need not have monopoly-like characteristics. BMW is a great car company, and is no. 16 on the Forbes brand list, but it isn’t the world’s largest auto manufacturer. In fact, it isn’t even number two or three. The top five car manufacturers in 2015 are : Toyota Motor Volkswagen Daimler BMW Group Honda Motor Group Thus, a top brand can be an also-ran within its industry, but produce something of such quality or renown or usefulness that it still is recognized as a top worldwide brand. Toyota, the top auto manufacturer, is no. 8 on the Forbes brand list, is the top auto manufacturer (though Volkswagen may be taking that spot over), and is publicly traded. However, that does not automatically make it a top stock to pick up at any random time. Toyota stock fluctuates like any other. Another example is Twitter (NYSE: TWTR ), which is a top player in the social media field and is quickly becoming a household name (if it isn’t one already). However, its stock currently languishes due to issues at the company. Another example of a Quality Stock that does not necessarily dominate its niche in quantifiable terms is Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC ). The world’s largest banks in order are : ICBC, China China Construction Bank, China Agricultural Bank of China, China Bank of China, China JPMorgan Chase, US Wells Fargo isn’t even on that list – well, ok, I cheated a bit, it comes in at number 6. However, Wells Fargo is not the world’s biggest bank, and it isn’t the biggest in the United States, either. There are many other dominant banks in the US, such as Bank of America and Citigroup, and few would claim that Wells Fargo “dominates” either global or domestic banking (outside of WFC headquarters). However, on the other hand, few would argue that Wells Fargo isn’t also a Quality Stock with consistent performance metrics and a venerated brand that, at the right price, could fit comfortably into most portfolios. A Quality Company that has a top brand becomes a good stock (assuming it even trades publicly, many top brands are privately held) only after the market decides that the company’s success is assured and it will durably maintain its niche for the foreseeable future. It also helps if the company has worked out all of its internal issues and is on a quantifiable glide path to success. We will assume that normal due diligence does not turn up any major problems with the company, that it is not facing secular declining demand or anything like that. However, even a good stock of a Quality Company isn’t always a good buy. That takes another level of analysis and timing which in fact is the most important step of all. The Best Times to Pick Up Quality Stocks Now we have a working definition for a quality stock: For our purposes, a Quality Stock is a household name that dominates its niche or which is so entrenched due to the quality of its services that its prosperity appears to be assured for the foreseeable future. Just having a working definition and knowing how to pick out a Quality Stock, though, does not mean that they are always good buys for the average trader just looking to pick up some shares to make a buck. These types of stocks go through all sorts of cycles, and there is no mystery about some brand-name company. Everyone knows the brand names just as well as you do, that’s why they are top brands. The trick is to pick up Quality Stocks at the right time. That, in fact, is the whole trick to prospering from this type of play. You know from the brand and your due diligence that the company will be around in five years, but you must also gain an edge in terms of price. Unfortunately, the right time to pick up a Quality Stock doesn’t come along all too often, but such times do come with great regularity. Those opportunities can be years apart, but they are like Haley’s Comet in terms of regular appearances. If you are lucky enough to pick up a Quality Stock at the right time, your portfolio will have low risk for its returns and enable you to indulge in more speculative plays without incurring too much overall risk if that is your wish. The Quality Stocks will form an anchor which keeps your overall portfolio from drifting onto the shoals even during market hurricanes. Risk analysis is a whole other topic, but any risk expert will tell you that minimizing risks while maximizing returns is the true path to prosperity. Let me be clear: I do not recommend buying Quality Stocks at any old time. They can and will become overvalued and lead to mediocre returns if you buy at those points, quality or not. My favorite example is Disney around the turn of the (recent) century, though there are many, many examples. Disney stock, 1996-2006. For my money, Disney is one of the best stocks that you can own, but not if you buy it at the wrong times. One can easily spot from the chart the best times to buy Disney, and also the worst, and hindsight is 20-20. However, as discussed below, identifying good times to pick up a stock like Disney is not beyond the reach of the ordinary investor. Just as Quality Stocks provide regular buying opportunities, they also provide extended periods when they are over-bought. For Disney, the stock price went basically nowhere over the decade shown, and shortly thereafter fell off the Financial Crisis cliff. Much of this was during the Disney Renaissance , when every animated film that it released seemed to become another blockbuster. In addition, the growth of cable and its theme parks made the company a money machine. Unfortunately for new buyers, though, the stock price became a victim of the company’s fame and success, and too many people piled into it. The stock price soared beyond all reason. However, if you had bought at the right times, even during the period shown, you would have made good returns. It is not luck, or should I say not just luck (because we all need a little luck in life), that determines good entry points. The market provides clear signals as to the best times to enter Quality Stocks. Here is my own working definition of the best time to pick up Quality Stocks like Disney: The best times to pick up Quality Stocks is when there is a general market sell-off and practically everything sells off regardless of quality or value. In fact, general market sell-offs are the only time I consider picking up Quality Stocks. They are usually over-valued when the market is rolling along under blue skies. The rest of the time, other consideration such as the cash flow a company provides take over, and it is better to focus on other strategies. Why Quality Stocks Are Good Buys During General Market Sell-Offs There are three main reasons why Quality Stocks become the right choice during market sell-offs: Durability; Index Funds; Buybacks. The first reason to pick up Quality Stocks during market sell-offs, their durability, is actually psychological. Durability means that the market previously vetted these stocks and found them to represent premium companies. The company has a top brand, and the market has passed its judgment according to our criteria that it is a Quality Stock. A Quality Stock is always desirable, the only sticking point is price. Aside from individual company issues, only during a general market sell-off are you likely to find a Quality Company truly on sale. The durability is important psychologically because knowing about it will help you to steel your own nerves to buy it when your natural inclination is to sell everything and go hide under the bed instead. I was tempted to use the word “unassailable” instead of “durable.” However, nothing is unassailable. Just ask General Motors shareholders from during the Financial Crisis. There are real risks during certain types of sell-offs, you always have to avoid company-specific issues and the like. There are no sure things in life. The key is to identify whether the reasons underlying the sell-off will impact a particular Quality Stock in particular, and if so, choose another. Market sell-offs occur because people panic. There’s no better way to put it: investors get frightened by this, that or the other transient thing. October 2014 is a prime example: the market sold off due to Ebola fears of all things. Naturally, once the Ebola scare passed, everyone piled back into the Quality Stocks. The Ebola Scare was a time to gather your courage and buy some Quality Stocks. We are not immune to the fears that grip the market; to assume that we are all emotionless robots is ridiculous. Embrace your natural emotions, there is nothing wrong about them. Market sell-offs happen precisely because people like us get scared. Recognizing that is part of the solution. While we are in the midst of being terrified of the scary market drop, that is the time to find the port in a storm, to carry on our nautical analogy above. Market drops make us fear that there “is no bottom.” Quality Stocks, though, aren’t going away due to an Ebola Scare or whatever, any more than quality real estate became any less so during the Financial Crisis and accompanying bursting of the real estate bubble. Quality is quality, and, as the saying goes, quality will out. It will be easier for you to buy a Quality Stock even in the grip of whatever fear you feel. That is the time to reach out for the life raft that is a Quality Stock, because you know deep down that they are durable and will still prosper long after the fear departs. The second main reason to buy Quality Stocks during market sell-offs is more technical. Index funds have grown in popularity through the years. As I wrote in my recent article ” The Hidden Danger of Index Funds ,” the default investment for over half of equity fund purchases in 2014 was index funds. We can all argue, as I did in my article and the accompanying comments, about the meaning of this trend. Opinions will differ about the effect of index funds on the market and individual portfolios. However, I have learned that fighting a market trend is just asking for trouble. The better tactic is to figure out how to prosper from it. The way to prosper from this growth of index funds is either to buy an index fund yourself, which is probably not your choice since you are reading this article about picking individual stocks, or to understand what they are doing to the market and trade accordingly. Index funds are being pushed by just about everyone these days. There are articles entitled ” Your Friend, the Index Fund ,” and Warren Buffett repeatedly has touted index funds as the best choice for most investors. Many office workers in 401(k) or other retirement plans have no good choices aside from index funds. It is a fact of life: index funds are taking over the stock market. We all know the basics of index funds: they hold baskets of stocks chosen by someone in an office somewhere, with regular additions and deletions based upon arcane and often mysterious criteria. To say that index funds are completely mechanical is nonsense: one way or another, someone is deciding what goes in them, not some machine. There are a lot of myths about index funds that badly need dispelling. The key fact for our purposes, though, is that many index funds hold the Quality Stocks that we want. The people who own those index funds are just like us: they are as scared by Ebola or the Fed as we are. While I never quite figured out the connection between Ebola killing everyone and the need to sell your stocks, what happens is that people get scared and they hit the button to sell what they own; and, increasingly, what they sell is their index funds because these days that is what everyone owns. Of course, when the fear subsides, they eventually buy back the index funds (at higher prices). Now, someone could love Apple, and even own shares of Apple that they would never, ever sell. They may have five iPads and six iPhones and even wear the Apple Watch (I have never met anyone that does, but maybe I just don’t get out enough). Anyway, while they would never sell their precious Apple stock, they most definitely would sell their index fund that has a 5% component of Apple stock in it. After that, the sell programs take care of business. Have the perspective to realize that a sudden wave of program selling, such as hit the market almost precisely at 3:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday, 25 August 2015, is most likely the summation of fears of the index people. Far from being a harbinger of the next stage down, it reflects past events that, scary as it seems at the time, is like the conclusion to a good novel: it strikes an emotional chord, but then it is over. By washing out the weak hands, it sets the stage for a foundation and perhaps a market rebound. The moral of the story is that during market sell-offs, no matter how beloved a cult stock may be, the iWatch will get thrown out with the bathwater as people give in to their irrational fears and sell their index funds. That is the moment of opportunity for those who want to own Quality Stocks. You will find the run-of-the-mill also-ran stocks on sale throughout the year. Buying one of them during a market panic likely is a wasted opportunity, like being first on the long line for the buffet and then only grabbing a coke. Generally, it is only during periods of panic selling that you will find the true bargains in Quality Stocks, and that is the time to focus on them and buy them. It is like buying a nice suit. You can always go to whatever store is at the local mall and pick up something that is on “sale” every weekend. Or, you can wait for the once a year sale at Brooks Brothers and find something really nice that you’d definitely pay more for every other time, and that you’ll keep handy in your close for the next 20 years. The opportunity can be fleeting. For instance, during the Ebola Scare, the market recovered within a couple of weeks as if nothing had happened and soon went on to all-time highs. There are many reasons for these sell-offs, and they are all scary enough to make ordinary people panic: China, Iran, terrorism, the Fed, creepy diseases, whatever it is. However, at least to date, all such market troughs have disappeared after some time has passed and investors have regained their faith in the future. The third reason for buying Quality Stocks during major sell-offs is one of the factors which keeps such opportunities fleeting. There is usually one major group of investors in these companies that is always watching, is completely unemotional, and couldn’t care less about Ebola or whatever else has sent the stock market reeling. This major group of investors is the companies themselves. Now, insiders are one thing. They can be as terrified as anyone for the future of the stock market and of western civilization due to whatever Janet Yellen might say on some hot September day. However, the corporations themselves are ready with their share repurchase authorization whenever their stock price falls below certain metrics. It is much easier for some corporate functionary to be dispassionate about investing the company’s money in the market during such occurrences than their own small personal stash. They are a major source of new funds into the market during such occasions. There was clear evidence of this during the most recent major sell-off, in late August 2015. Due to a combination of Fed fears and worries about China, the major averages staged their first real correction since 2011. The market dropped precipitously on Friday, 21 August, and after a weekend of anxiety by multitudes of small investors, staged a good imitation of a flash crash on the following Monday morning. Tuesday was an up-and-down day that suggested the panic at least was abating, but the market remained edgy. So who stepped in on Wednesday? The corporations themselves. The Goldman Sachs unit that implements corporate buybacks saw ” record volume ” that day, stabilizing the market and igniting a modest snapback rally. Many people are quick to ascribe seemingly magical market intervention that stops major sell-offs to the government, but in fact it is the corporations themselves who serve as the true “plunge protection team.” In truth, it is the cheap money provided by low interest rates that provides some of their ammunition, but it is the Quality Companies who are most likely to have ample cash and procedures ready for such occasions. That is one of the benefits of being a Quality Company which has proven over time that it knows how to execute when it counts. The time to buy the Quality Stocks is while others (and perhaps you) are panicked about the latest scare and before they (and you) fully recover. To do that, all you have to do is overcome your own fear and grab the brass ring while it is still available. Turn off the television telling you how terrible everything is, bring up your broker’s screen, then place the buy order for the Quality Stock you’ve researched and know you want. Then, jump up from your machine, go running through the streets screaming in terror along with me and everyone else. Just hold those Quality Stocks for dear life until the good times resume. You’ll feel great counting your profits while you prepare for the next panic. So, What are the Current Quality Buys of Quality Stocks Then? I, and of course many others, publish all sorts of articles about what are good buys at any point in time. A good buy of a Quality Stock depends on price action as well as the fundamentals. My common practice is to stay up to date on the fundamentals of Quality Stocks even when I’m not interested in buying them. That way, when we get a scary sell-off as happened on 24 August, there is no hesitancy: the only thing to decide is whether to pull the trigger at a particular price, not whether the stock is worth owning at all. During market breakdowns, look for Quality Stocks whose business is in good order that are heavily represented in the major indexes. They will suffer the most from index herd selling, and they will benefit the most from the inevitable herd buying that will happen when fear subsides. So, the current quality buys are always a subset of the Quality Stocks, and sometimes (actually, much of the time) there aren’t any stocks in that subset at all. Of course, it comes down to your own particular investing style and situation and so forth which are the best Quality Stocks to add. For my own current ideas, check out my other recent articles, but nothing replaces performing your own scans and due diligence. Please Put It All Together In One Sentence During major market sell-offs, take advantage of the herd behavior manifested in index fund selling by considering companies with top brands that have a durable niche within their sector. Conclusion Quality stocks are those of companies that have top brands and have dominant or at least durable positions within their niches. Quality Stocks regularly go on sale during market panics, but the intervals between such sales can be widely dispersed and they come unexpectedly. Corporate buybacks can swoop in when values get abnormally low. The key is to take advantage of the fear manifested in sell programs that reflect index fund selling. During normal times, Quality Stocks tend to get over-valued (such as with Disney in the example above) because everyone recognizes their value and is complacent about market dangers. Thus, in general, Quality Stocks should be avoided when the market is grinding higher without a care in the world. However, it still pays to do your due diligence on Quality Stocks during the good times so you are ready to buy them given the right opportunity. If you are brave enough to focus on Quality Stocks during periods of market turmoil, over time you are likely to be well-rewarded. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

An 80/20 Filter On How The DJIA Weathered The Week

Volatility is the subject of the week. Investors have the opportunity, even the responsibility, to determine how to manage volatility. Using my investment club as an example, an 80/20 filter applied to the DJIA analyzes how the index weathered the week and identifies the top six components for investment consideration. A record-setting week is over. Industry experts are still debating what actually happened and why. Yet, the advice seems to be consistent – expect the volatility to continue. With volatility comes an opportunity, even responsibility, to understand your personal price points. At what point would you sell? At what point would you buy? It’s probably a fair statement that even if one had limit orders set, the odds were small of actually having enough cash to cover all of one’s desirable trades or actually seeing all the orders execute. But, that doesn’t mean the exercise to determine buy points or sell points would be fruitless. I rarely construct an article based wholly on my investment club. But, this article inspired me to start laying a foundation with the members – just in case a bear market is here or around the corner or down the road. I realized the volatility described in the article would fit perfectly with the club’s 2015 goals. At the beginning of the year, we set a theme for 2015 of “Why don’t we?”. We’ve been a club for nearly a decade. It was time to ask the question: “Why don’t we own X or Y or Z?”. For example, why haven’t we invested in the businesses from where we purchase our gasoline, drive through for our snacks or drinks, do our Christmas shopping or to where we pay those expensive insurance premiums? That’s not to say every business would warrant an investment. But, we should at least do the analysis and know the reasons why we were waiting on or eliminating the option. So, with the club in mind, this week provided a prime opportunity to muse over the thirty components of the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average). The club doesn’t currently have an investment in each component for a variety of reasons. In some cases, we’ve truly opted to pass. In others, we’ve not yet done the work. Since hindsight is supposedly 20/20, if this week were to repeat, which components should capture our attention? What would be our buy point? To begin consideration of the DJIA components in the past week, the primary questions centered on how they weathered the storm. How far did they fall? Did they recover? This wasn’t to be an exercise in analyzing each component but rather an exercise in narrowing the focus. Like most individuals, we don’t have an abundance of cash sitting and waiting to be invested. After all, we are an investment club not a savings club. Therefore, using the 80/20 rule, it seemed wisest to determine on which six (20%) of the DJIA to focus. Choosing the six means (hopefully) eliminating twenty-four based on reasonable criteria. Many industry experts say that a true correction requires a pullback of at least 10%. In this case, the question is a pullback from what? One could use the closing price from August 21st. The problem is that some stocks had already started a correction pattern. One could use a stock’s 52 week high. But, there are a variety of reasons why a stock may have pulled off its high. For example, the energy-related stocks are well off their highs. The fairest starting point for each stock seemed to be its 50-day moving average. Returning to the concept that there are companies well off their 52-week highs, there are logical reasons why now or the near future may not be a good time for investing in those companies. A reasonable rule of thumb seemed to be that it’s not time to invest in a company whose 50-day moving average was more than 25% from its 52-week high. This guideline eliminated Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ), Chevron (NYSE: CVX ), E.I. Du Pont (NYSE: DD ), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC ), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM ). Component 50-Day Moving Average 52-Week High 50-Day From 52-Week AAPL $118.85 $134.54 13.20% AXP $77.86 $94.89 21.87% BA $142.00 $158.83 11.85% CAT $78.37 $109.73 40.02% CSCO $27.73 $30.31 9.30% CVX $86.57 $129.53 49.62% DD $55.22 $76.59 38.70% DIS $111.93 $122.08 9.07% GE $25.89 $28.68 10.78% GS $202.66 $218.77 7.95% HD $116.40 $123.80 6.36% IBM $158.29 $195.00 23.19% INTC $28.67 $37.90 32.19% JNJ $98.74 $109.49 10.89% JPM $67.46 $70.61 4.67% KO $40.76 $45.00 10.40% MCD $98.04 $101.88 3.92% MMM $149.69 $170.50 13.90% MRK $57.75 $63.62 10.16% MSFT $45.81 $50.05 9.26% NKE $112.86 $117.72 4.31% PFE $34.78 $36.46 4.83% PG $77.04 $93.89 21.87% TRV $104.45 $110.49 5.78% UNH $120.64 $126.21 4.62% UTX $100.33 $124.45 24.04% V $72.82 $76.92 5.63% VZ $46.73 $51.73 10.70% WMT $70.97 $90.97 28.18% XOM $78.56 $99.67 26.87% Next, using the “rule” that a correction requires a decrease of 10%, American Express (NYSE: AXP ) and Traveler’s Companies (NYSE: TRV ) were both eliminated. Component 50-Day Moving Average August 24th Low Low From 50-Day AAPL $118.85 $92.00 29.18% AXP $77.86 $71.71 8.58% BA $142.00 $115.14 23.33% CSCO $27.73 $23.03 20.41% DIS $111.93 $90.00 24.37% GE $25.89 $19.37 33.66% GS $202.66 $172.10 17.76% HD $116.40 $92.17 26.29% IBM $158.29 $143.00 10.69% JNJ $98.74 $81.79 20.72% JPM $67.46 $50.07 34.73% KO $40.76 $36.56 11.49% MCD $98.04 $87.50 12.05% MMM $149.69 $134.00 11.71% MRK $57.75 $45.69 26.40% MSFT $45.81 $39.72 15.33% NKE $112.86 $94.50 19.43% PFE $34.78 $27.51 26.43% PG $77.04 $65.02 18.49% TRV $104.45 $95.21 9.70% UNH $120.64 $95.00 26.99% UTX $100.33 $87.17 15.10% V $72.82 $60.00 21.37% VZ $46.73 $38.06 22.78% Likewise, if a company recovered to within 10% of its 52-week high, it doesn’t seem that company would be offering a “bargain” opportunity. That’s not to say the company is not fairly valued. However, if the goal is to take advantage of volatility, there may be companies with more room left to run. This filter eliminated Home Depot (NYSE: HD ), McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD ), Nike (NYSE: NKE ), United Healthcare (NYSE: UNH ) and Visa (NYSE: V ). Component August 29th Close 52-Week High Current to 52-Week AAPL $113.29 $134.54 18.76% BA $133.24 $158.83 19.21% CSCO $26.00 $30.31 16.58% DIS $102.48 $122.08 19.13% GE $25.16 $28.68 13.99% GS $187.75 $218.77 16.52% HD $117.52 $123.80 5.34% IBM $147.98 $195.00 31.77% JNJ $95.17 $109.49 15.05% JPM $64.13 $70.61 10.10% KO $39.45 $45.00 14.07% MCD $96.25 $101.88 5.85% MMM $144.21 $170.50 18.23% MRK $55.37 $63.62 14.90% MSFT $43.93 $50.05 13.93% NKE $112.50 $117.72 4.64% PFE $32.66 $36.46 11.64% PG $71.21 $93.89 31.85% UNH $117.28 $126.21 7.61% UTX $93.24 $124.45 33.47% V $72.46 $76.92 6.16% VZ $46.07 $51.73 12.29% Speaking of recovering, if a company’s share price did not “bounce” back this week, that may suggest weakness. It seemed reasonable to expect at least a 50% bounce or recovery from Monday’s lows. Filtering for components with a recovery of less than 50% eliminated International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM ) and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX ). Component August 24th Low August 29th Close 50-Day Moving Average Percentage Recovered AAPL $92.00 $113.29 $118.85 79.29% BA $115.14 $133.24 $142.00 67.39% CSCO $23.03 $26.00 $27.73 63.19% DIS $90.00 $102.48 $111.93 56.91% GE $19.37 $25.16 $25.89 88.80% GS $172.10 $187.75 $202.66 51.21% IBM $143.00 $147.98 $158.29 32.57% JNJ $81.79 $95.17 $98.74 78.94% JPM $50.07 $64.13 $67.46 80.85% KO $36.56 $39.45 $40.76 68.81% MMM $134.00 $144.21 $149.69 65.07% MRK $45.69 $55.37 $57.75 80.27% MSFT $39.72 $43.93 $45.81 69.13% PFE $27.51 $32.66 $34.78 70.84% PG $65.02 $71.21 $77.04 51.50% UTX $87.17 $93.24 $100.33 46.12% VZ $38.06 $46.07 $46.73 92.39% The club has a predominant goal of a 10% annual return for our portfolio. With total shareholder return as the focus, it’s natural to look at the dividend yield of the components. The current average yield of the DJIA is 2.86%. Of the remaining fifteen components, Disney (NYSE: DIS ) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) are not offering a yield at half that mark. Therefore, both were moved to the eliminated bucket. Component August 29th Close Dividend AAPL $113.29 1.84% BA $133.24 2.73% CSCO $26.00 3.23% DIS $102.48 1.29% GE $25.16 3.66% GS $187.75 1.38% JNJ $95.17 3.15% JPM $64.13 2.74% KO $39.45 3.35% MMM $144.21 2.84% MRK $55.37 3.25% MSFT $43.93 2.82% PFE $32.66 3.43% PG $71.21 3.72% VZ $46.07 4.78% At this point, seventeen of the thirty components have been eliminated. In theory, the list now contains thirteen companies with room left to run and a yield tallying at least half the average of the index. Specifically for my club, we already own four companies on the remaining list. It would be easy to just focus on the nine that are left. But, the wiser option would be to include them and evaluate whether any of our four merit a reinvestment. Focusing on the total potential for return aligns with our club goal of 10% annual return. In ten of the thirteen remaining components, the one-year target exceeds the 52-week high. Only 3M (NYSE: MMM ), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG ) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ ) have one-year targets below their respective 52-week highs. For the sake of being conservative, when calculating the potential growth for share price appreciation for each of the thirteen, the lower of the 52-week high or the one-year target is used. Calculating the remaining growth from share price appreciation equates to a range of 10.1% to 19.2%. It would be easy to simply eliminate the lowest five companies. However, the company with one of the lowest growth potential rates, Verizon, also happens to offer the best dividend yield at 4.78%. Therefore, it is prudent to add the potential growth for share price appreciation to the dividend yield. In order to achieve a 10% annual return, the club typically targets potential returns of 20%. Thus, even if a company achieves just half its goal, the club hits its target. As shown, at current prices, three of the components offer a potential return over 20% – Procter & Gamble, Boeing (NYSE: BA ) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ). Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO ) also comes very close. Ironically, these are the four companies in which the club already has positions. Thus, all four companies will be considered for reinvestment when prices are near the August 28th closing price. Component August 28th Close 52-Week High or One-Year Target Potential Growth Dividend Potential Total Return PG $71.21 $84.50 18.66% 3.72% 22.38% BA $133.24 $158.83 19.21% 2.73% 21.94% AAPL $113.29 $134.54 18.76% 1.84% 20.59% CSCO $26.00 $30.31 16.58% 3.23% 19.81% JNJ $95.17 $109.49 15.05% 3.15% 18.20% MRK $55.37 $63.62 14.90% 3.25% 18.15% GE $25.16 $28.68 13.99% 3.66% 17.65% KO $39.45 $45.00 14.07% 3.35% 17.41% MMM $144.21 $164.31 13.94% 2.84% 16.78% MSFT $43.93 $50.05 13.93% 2.82% 16.75% VZ $46.07 $51.42 11.61% 4.78% 16.39% PFE $32.66 $36.46 11.64% 3.43% 15.06% JPM $64.13 $70.61 10.10% 2.74% 12.85% For the purpose of considering new positions in the next six companies on the list above, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ), Merck (NYSE: MRK ), General Electric (NYSE: GE ), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO ), 3M, and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ), the club would have to take advantage of volatility and market pullbacks. A buy point must be determined which fulfills the goal of a potential return of at least 20%. As prices fall, the dividend yield will rise as will the potential growth in share price appreciation. The next table establishes buy points based on these changes. Component Buy Point 52-Week High or One-Year Target Potential Growth Dividend Potential Total Return JNJ $93.74 $109.49 16.80% 3.20% 20.00% MRK $54.51 $63.62 16.71% 3.30% 20.01% GE $24.66 $28.68 16.30% 3.73% 20.03% KO $38.60 $45.00 16.58% 3.42% 20.00% MMM $140.34 $164.31 17.08% 2.92% 20.00% MSFT $42.74 $50.05 17.10% 2.90% 20.00% Since the club is already familiar with four of the top six components, this exercise actually identified the top 33% (10) of the DJIA components relative, primarily, to weathering the week. The next step for my investment club is to determine if any of the next six companies kindle an interest. If so, our buy points are established. Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL, BA, CSCO, DIS, INTC, NKE, PG, V. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.