Tag Archives: demographics

Who Wants SCHC? I’m Trying To Buy Some

Summary The Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF is getting very appealing again as it is dipping much lower amid international fears. I’ve been admiring this ETF for a while but couldn’t get the right entry price, I have a limit order pending. The ETF has a large volume of small-cap securities that are difficult to acquire for your portfolio which enhances diversification. The international equity allocations are fairly diversified. I wouldn’t mind even more diversification, but this is certainly good. I see a reasonable allocation of around 3% to 5% of the portfolio value to SCHC. I’m also using SCHF for part of my international position. The Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHC ) is one of the ETFs I have been keeping an eye on over the last month or two. On September 22nd, 2015, I put in a limit buy order for some shares. I’m still waiting to see if the price drops far enough to trigger the order, but it is “good til cancelled” and the standard period is 60 days until it would automatically cancel. Why I like SCHC The Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF is a fairly nice fit the diversified equity portfolio. While there are many options for international exposure, there are only a few of them that focus on the small-cap international market. Quite a few years ago there was a theory that small capitalization companies were capable of delivering superior performance because a lack of coverage by analysts would result in less efficient pricing and therefore higher risk premiums could be demanded. With the advent of total market indexes and broad market indexes, the demand for small cap companies increased and it was capable to effectively diversify the risk. International markets tend to be less developed than the U.S. financial market and I believe we may witness the same kind of performance in those markets. As more research is done and risk premiums are reduced, the international small-cap market may see some fairly solid performance. Heads I Win, Tails We Tie If my theory fails to pan out, there is still a benefit to SCHC that qualifies as “good enough”. Because the fund is focused on small-cap holdings it has very little overlap with other major international funds. I already use the Schwab International Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHF ) for part of my international exposure. While there may be some solid correlation in returns due to similar risk factors for international markets, the individual holdings are very different. By adding a small position in SCHC to my international holdings I’m hoping to gain a slight amount of additional diversification. If SCHC simply matches SCHF for total return over the next few years but excels in different quarters, there will still be some benefits to be had from rebalancing the positions. These are probably going to be limited to fairly minor gains, but minor gains rather than a loss is a perfectly acceptable outcome to me. Volume of Holdings SCHC has a fairly impressive 1,666 holdings to go with an expense ratio of .18%. Since the expense ratio remains under .20%, it isn’t high enough to really chase me off and it feels reasonable when considering the sheer volume of international small-cap holdings. These are not the most liquid and easiest to acquire securities. All in all, I feel that I’m getting some value out of paying that ratio. Geography The following map breaks down the geographic allocations of the fund: (click to enlarge) I wouldn’t mind seeing slightly larger allocations to the smaller sections, but this is certainly a reasonable diversified batch. The top 3 countries are on different continents, which is a refreshing change from some of the “international” ETFs that place almost all of the equity in Europe. I have no issue with holding equity in European countries, but I’m buying these funds for diversification so seeing a strong mix of different markets is very favorable. Ideal Allocation I like SCHC as an allocation for 3% to 5% of my portfolio. I would still aim to keep a significant portion of the international equity allocation in the larger capitalization markets that may be more resilient to a sell off. If the markets really turn south and SCHC does sell off, I would want to keep increasing my allocations to take advantage of fear based selling. I think the best way to do that may be to just set ranges for where I want the position to be within the portfolio and to rebalance whenever it gets too high or too low. Since the ETF is free to trade from Schwab accounts, I can rebalance without much concern. What Goes with SCHC? Naturally investors will want a core position in domestic equity funds, but SCHC also benefits from being in a portfolio with long duration treasury securities. Those securities have a negative correlation with SCHC and would be ideal for a portfolio that includes rebalancing. Conclusion After another day of fear drove market prices around $28.50 per share, it seemed worth tagging on a limit buy order and seeing if I’d be able to snag some shares of this ETF. I’ve liked it for a while but didn’t have an order ready and waiting on the August 24th event where so many funds went on incredible sales. Now that we are seeing another attractive entry range, I have an order waiting to scoop up some shares. Disclosure: I am/we are long SCHF. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: Information in this article represents the opinion of the analyst. All statements are represented as opinions, rather than facts, and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell a security. Ratings of “outperform” and “underperform” reflect the analyst’s estimation of a divergence between the market value for a security and the price that would be appropriate given the potential for risks and returns relative to other securities. The analyst does not know your particular objectives for returns or constraints upon investing. All investors are encouraged to do their own research before making any investment decision. Information is regularly obtained from Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and SEC Database. If Yahoo, Google, or the SEC database contained faulty or old information it could be incorporated into my analysis.

VWO: A Very Solid Emerging Market ETF, If You Don’t Mind China

Summary VWO offers some solid diversification among the companies and a low expense ratio. When investors look at diversification based on geography, the diversification is not as favorable. I’d like to see a lower allocation to China and stronger allocations to smaller emerging markets. When investors look at the correlation between VWO and major domestic indexes on a daily basis, the correlation looks very high. Over the long term, the high correlation breaks and there is a dramatic difference in returns even over periods of a few years. Investors should be seeking to improve their risk adjusted returns. I’m a big fan of using ETFs to achieve the risk adjusted returns relative to the portfolios that a normal investor can generate for themselves after trading costs. One of the funds that I’m considering is the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ). I’ll be performing a substantial portion of my analysis along the lines of modern portfolio theory, so my goal is to find ways to minimize costs while achieving diversification to reduce my risk level. Expense Ratio The expense ratio on VWO is only .15%. Nice work Vanguard, this is another low cost index fund for effective diversification. Largest Holdings (click to enlarge) The holdings for VWO are fairly diversified with only 2 companies receiving an allocation higher than 2.1%. The one concern I have is that it seems like “China” keeps coming up in the top holdings. I checked the allocation by country to determine how large that exposure would be. Allocation by Country The allocation to China was 27.1% of the market. Since I’ve been a bear on China, I’m not really big on this allocation. I wasn’t bearish on China until their domestic equity market doubled. While the government in China is working hard to protect their equity valuations, I’d rather see the economy growing rapidly from people working and building both infrastructure and exports. I would prefer an emerging market portfolio with an international diversification that was closer to equal weights. It wouldn’t need to actually be equal weight, but less skewed than the current portfolio. Building the Portfolio This hypothetical portfolio has a moderately aggressive allocation for the middle aged investor. Only 25% of the total portfolio value is placed in bonds and a fifth of that bond allocation is given to high yield bonds. If the investor wants to treat an investment in an mREIT index as an investment in the underlying bonds that the individual mREITs hold, then the total bond allocation would be 35%. Given how substantially mREITs can deviate from book value, I’d rather consider the allocation as an equity position designed to create a very high yield. This portfolio is probably taking on more risk than would be appropriate for many retiring investors since a major recession could still hit this pretty hard. If the investor wanted to modify the portfolio to be more appropriate for retirement, the first place to start would be increasing the bond exposure at the cost of equity. However, the diversification within the portfolio is fairly solid. Long term treasuries work nicely with major market indexes and I’ve designed this hypothetical portfolio without putting in the allocation I normally would for equity REITs. An allocation is created for the mortgage REITs, which can offer some fairly nice diversification relative to the rest of the portfolio and they are a major source of yield in this hypothetical portfolio. The portfolio assumes frequent rebalancing which would be a problem for short term trading outside of tax advantaged accounts unless the investor was going to rebalance by adding to their positions on a regular basis and allocating the majority of the capital towards whichever portions of the portfolio had been underperforming recently. Because a substantial portion of the yield from this portfolio comes from REITs and interest, I would favor this portfolio as a tax exempt strategy even if the investor was frequently rebalancing by adding new capital. The portfolio allocations can be seen below along with the dividend yields from each investment. Name Ticker Portfolio Weight Yield SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF SPY 35.00% 2.06% Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF XLY 10.00% 1.36% First Trust Consumer Staples AlphaDEX ETF FXG 10.00% 1.60% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF VWO 5.00% 3.17% First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX ETF FXU 5.00% 3.77% SPDR Barclays Capital Short Term High Yield Bond ETF SJNK 5.00% 5.45% PowerShares 1-30 Laddered Treasury Portfolio ETF PLW 20.00% 2.22% iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF REM 10.00% 14.45%   Portfolio 100.00% 3.53% The next chart shows the annualized volatility and beta of the portfolio since April of 2012. (click to enlarge) A quick rundown of the portfolio Using SJNK offers investors better yields from using short term exposure to credit sensitive debt. The yield on this is fairly nice and due to the short duration of the securities the volatility isn’t too bad. PLW on the other hand does have some material volatility, but a negative correlation to other investments allows it to reduce the total risk of the portfolio. FXG is used to make the portfolio overweight on consumer staples with a goal of providing more stability to the equity portion of the portfolio. FXU is used to create a small utility allocation for the portfolio to give it a higher dividend yield and help it produce more income. I find the utility sector often has some desirable risk characteristics that make it worth at least considering for an overweight representation in a portfolio. VWO is simply there to provide more diversification from being an international equity portfolio. While giving investors exposure to emerging markets, it is also offering a very solid dividend yield that enhances the overall income level from the portfolio. XLY offers investors higher expected returns in a solid economy at the cost of higher risk. Using it as more than a small weighting would result in too much risk for the portfolio, but as a small weighting the diversification it offers relative to the core holding of SPY is eliminating most of the additional risk. REM is primarily there to offer a substantial increase in the dividend yield which is otherwise not very strong. The mREIT sector can be subject to some pretty harsh movements and dividends from mREITs should not be the core source of income for an investor. However, they can be used to enhance the level of dividend income while investors wait for their other equity investments to increase dividends over the coming decades. If you want a really quick version to refer back to, I put together the following chart that really simplifies the role of each investment: Name Ticker Role in Portfolio SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF SPY Core of Portfolio Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF XLY Enhance Expected Returned First Trust Consumer Staples AlphaDEX ETF FXG Reduce Beta of Portfolio Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF VWO Exposure to Foreign Markets First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX ETF FXU Enhance Dividends, Lower Portfolio Risk SPDR Barclays Capital Short Term High Yield Bond ETF SJNK Low Volatility with over 5% Yield PowerShares 1-30 Laddered Treasury Portfolio ETF PLW Negative Beta Reduces Portfolio Risk iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF REM Enhance Current Income Risk Contribution The risk contribution category demonstrates the amount of the portfolio’s volatility that can be attributed to that position. Despite TLT being fairly volatile and tying SPY for the second highest volatility in the portfolio, it actually produces a negative risk contribution because it has a negative correlation with most of the portfolio. It is important to recognize that the “risk” on an investment needs to be considered in the context of the entire portfolio. To make it easier to analyze how risky each holding would be in the context of the portfolio, I have most of these holdings weighted at a simple 10%. Because of TLT’s heavy negative correlation, it receives a weighting of 20% and as the core of the portfolio SPY was weighted as 50%. Correlation The chart below shows the correlation of each ETF with each other ETF in the portfolio. Blue boxes indicate positive correlations and tan box indicate negative correlations. Generally speaking lower levels of correlation are highly desirable and high levels of correlation substantially reduce the benefits from diversification. (click to enlarge) Conclusion VWO is benefiting a great deal from having a fairly low correlation with several of the other assets in the portfolio. The highest correlation is with the S&P 500, but even the high level of correlation established here is a function of the very short term measurements being used to measure the correlation. When returns are measured over a longer time period the correlation decreases significantly. Over the sample period the S&P 500 is up by 52% and VWO is down by 12%. Simply put, short term correlations are resulting in significantly overstated correlations for VWO. In the same manner, I think the benefits of diversifying VWO with a long term treasury ETF are understated. When investors are in a period of panic, emerging markets will tend to go down while the risk free securities will be bid higher. If investors want to use a fund like VWO to grab some international diversification (with some heavy exposure to China), I would really for treasuries to be over-weight in the portfolio. The difficulty here is that long term rates are already fairly low so the maximum level of gains on a treasury allocation is limited. All around this is a good ETF, but I would prefer international options with less exposure to China. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: Information in this article represents the opinion of the analyst. All statements are represented as opinions, rather than facts, and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell a security. Ratings of “outperform” and “underperform” reflect the analyst’s estimation of a divergence between the market value for a security and the price that would be appropriate given the potential for risks and returns relative to other securities. The analyst does not know your particular objectives for returns or constraints upon investing. All investors are encouraged to do their own research before making any investment decision. Information is regularly obtained from Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and SEC Database. If Yahoo, Google, or the SEC database contained faulty or old information it could be incorporated into my analysis.

FXG: Consumer Staples With Less Of The Consumer Staples

Summary The portfolio for FXG just doesn’t look right to me. The ETF uses fairly low allocations for some core consumer staple holdings. I’d like to see a heavier weighting for companies with massive market share or addictive products because those firms should be able to protect margins better. Investors should be seeking to improve their risk-adjusted returns. I’m a big fan of using ETFs to achieve the risk-adjusted returns relative to the portfolios that a normal investor can generate for themselves after trading costs. One of the funds that I’m considering is the First Trust Consumer Staples AlphaDEX ETF (NYSEARCA: FXG ). I’ll be performing a substantial portion of my analysis along the lines of modern portfolio theory, so my goal is to find ways to minimize costs while achieving diversification to reduce my risk level. Expense Ratio The expense ratio for FXG is a fairly unappealing .67%, which leaves me feeling that there is some substantial room for improvement. Holdings I was able to grab a chart with all of the holdings for FXG: (click to enlarge) Is this really a consumer staples portfolio? Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG ) is only 1.68% of the portfolio? Altria Group (NYSE: MO ) is less than 1% of the portfolio? Costco (NASDAQ: COST ) is entirely absent from the portfolio. Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO ) and Pepsi (NYSE: PEP ) are entirely absent. When I’m looking at an ETF of consumer staples, I want to see products that people are going to buy regardless of what is happening in the economy. I’m not a fan of smoking, but I wouldn’t mind a substantial allocation to tobacco. For that matter, I would prefer a portfolio built on companies that have enormous market share and sell addictive products. The fundamental goal of creating a consumer staples allocation in the portfolio is to provide the portfolio with more protection from weakness in the economy. Despite the challenges with firms missing, I do think a large allocation to Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN ) and ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG ) does make sense. There has been enough concentration in this part of the industry that the major players are controlling a large part of the market and are unlikely to be forced to take major price cuts even if the market enters another recession. Building the Portfolio This hypothetical portfolio has a moderately aggressive allocation for the middle-aged investor. Only 25% of the total portfolio value is placed in bonds and a fifth of that bond allocation is given to high-yield bonds. If the investor wants to treat an investment in an mREIT index as an investment in the underlying bonds that the individual mREITs hold, then the total bond allocation would be 35%. Given how substantially mREITs can deviate from book value, I’d rather consider the allocation as an equity position designed to create a very high yield. This portfolio is probably taking on more risk than would be appropriate for many retiring investors since a major recession could still hit this pretty hard. If the investor wanted to modify the portfolio to be more appropriate for retirement, the first place to start would be increasing the bond exposure at the cost of equity. However, the diversification within the portfolio is fairly solid. Long-term treasuries work nicely with major market indexes, and I’ve designed this hypothetical portfolio without putting in the allocation I normally would for equity REITs. An allocation is created for the mortgage REITs, which can offer some fairly nice diversification relative to the rest of the portfolio and they are a major source of yield in this hypothetical portfolio. The portfolio assumes frequent rebalancing which would be a problem for short-term trading outside of tax advantaged accounts unless the investor was going to rebalance by adding to their positions on a regular basis and allocating the majority of the capital towards whichever portions of the portfolio had been underperforming recently. Because a substantial portion of the yield from this portfolio comes from REITs and interest, I would favor this portfolio as a tax exempt strategy even if the investor was frequently rebalancing by adding new capital. The portfolio allocations can be seen below along with the dividend yields from each investment: Name Ticker Portfolio Weight Yield SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF SPY 35.00% 2.06% Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF XLY 10.00% 1.36% First Trust Consumer Staples AlphaDEX ETF FXG 10.00% 1.60% Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF VWO 5.00% 3.17% First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX ETF FXU 5.00% 3.77% SPDR Barclays Capital Short Term High Yield Bond ETF SJNK 5.00% 5.45% PowerShares 1-30 Laddered Treasury Portfolio ETF PLW 20.00% 2.22% iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF REM 10.00% 14.45% Portfolio 100.00% 3.53% The next chart shows the annualized volatility and beta of the portfolio since April of 2012: (click to enlarge) A Quick Rundown of the Portfolio Using SJNK offers investors better yields from using short-term exposure to credit-sensitive debt. The yield on this is fairly nice, and due to the short duration of the securities, the volatility isn’t too bad. PLW on the other hand does have some material volatility, but a negative correlation to other investments allows it to reduce the total risk of the portfolio. FXG is used to make the portfolio overweight on consumer staples with a goal of providing more stability to the equity portion of the portfolio. FXU is used to create a small utility allocation for the portfolio to give it a higher dividend yield and help it produce more income. I find the utility sector often has some desirable risk characteristics that make it worth at least considering for an overweight representation in a portfolio. VWO is simply there to provide more diversification from being an international equity portfolio. While giving investors exposure to emerging markets, it is also offering a very solid dividend yield that enhances the overall income level from the portfolio. XLY offers investors higher expected returns in a solid economy at the cost of higher risk. Using it as more than a small weighting would result in too much risk for the portfolio, but as a small weighting, the diversification it offers relative to the core holding of SPY is eliminating most of the additional risk. REM is primarily there to offer a substantial increase in the dividend yield which is otherwise not very strong. The mREIT sector can be subject to some pretty harsh movements, and dividends from mREITs should not be the core source of income for an investor. However, they can be used to enhance the level of dividend income while investors wait for their other equity investments to increase dividends over the coming decades. If you want a really quick version to refer back to, I put together the following chart that really simplifies the role of each investment: Name Ticker Role in Portfolio SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF SPY Core of Portfolio Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF XLY Enhance Expected Returned First Trust Consumer Staples AlphaDEX ETF FXG Reduce Beta of Portfolio Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF VWO Exposure to Foreign Markets First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX ETF FXU Enhance Dividends, Lower Portfolio Risk SPDR Barclays Capital Short Term High Yield Bond ETF SJNK Low Volatility with over 5% Yield PowerShares 1-30 Laddered Treasury Portfolio ETF PLW Negative Beta Reduces Portfolio Risk iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF REM Enhance Current Income Risk Contribution The risk contribution category demonstrates the amount of the portfolio’s volatility that can be attributed to that position. Despite TLT being fairly volatile and tying SPY for the second highest volatility in the portfolio, it actually produces a negative risk contribution because it has a negative correlation with most of the portfolio. It is important to recognize that the “risk” on an investment needs to be considered in the context of the entire portfolio. To make it easier to analyze how risky each holding would be in the context of the portfolio, I have most of these holdings weighted at a simple 10%. Because of TLT’s heavy negative correlation, it receives a weighting of 20% and as the core of the portfolio SPY was weighted as 50%. Correlation The chart below shows the correlation of each ETF with each other ETF in the portfolio. Blue boxes indicate positive correlations and tan box indicate negative correlations. Generally speaking lower levels of correlation are highly desirable and high levels of correlation substantially reduce the benefits from diversification. (click to enlarge) Conclusion FXG has resisted weakness in the market as demonstrated by both the lower annual volatility and the lower max “drawdown” of -9.8% relative to the market’s worst performance of -11.9%. Despite that, the portfolio composition simply does not match the way I would want the consumer staples exposure constructed. Simply put, the portfolio does not offer strong enough allocations to some of the companies that have both enormous market share and addictive products. Heavy allocations to a few food companies look solid, but I’d rather see less of the convenience stores and more of the major retail low cost leaders such as Costco and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ). Even if WMT is having a rough time lately, it is a long-lived dividend champion with a large market share and powerful economies of scale. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: Information in this article represents the opinion of the analyst. All statements are represented as opinions, rather than facts, and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell a security. Ratings of “outperform” and “underperform” reflect the analyst’s estimation of a divergence between the market value for a security and the price that would be appropriate given the potential for risks and returns relative to other securities. The analyst does not know your particular objectives for returns or constraints upon investing. All investors are encouraged to do their own research before making any investment decision. Information is regularly obtained from Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and SEC Database. If Yahoo, Google, or the SEC database contained faulty or old information it could be incorporated into my analysis.