As 3D Systems, Stratasys Jump, Is 3D Printer Market Set To Rebound?
3D Systems ( DDD ) received a much-needed vote of confidence from an analyst report Thursday, sending shares of it and Stratasys ( SSYS ) rising on hopes the top two 3D printer makers are poised for a rebound. Shares of both companies were hammered in 2015 as 3D Systems and Stratasys posted quarter after quarter of disappointing earnings and sales. In November, 3D systems announced that Avi Reichental had resigned as CEO and president after 12 years of leading the 3D printer pioneer. The company ran with an interim CEO until April 4, when 3D Systems announced it had recruited Vyomesh Joshi as CEO. Joshi had been executive vice president of the imaging and printing business of HP Inc. ( HPQ ) — formerly Hewlett-Packard before its split. HP plans to enter the 3D printer market this year. Optimism about Joshi’s hiring anchored the positive report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Wamsi Mohan on Thursday. Mohan upgraded 3D Systems stock to buy from underperform and raised his price target to 26 from 11. 3D Systems stock rose 10% Thursday to 18.28, hitting its highest price since June. The stock had touched a more than five-year low of 6 in January. Stratasys rose 5.9% to 29.35 and hit its highest point since October. In February, it touched a more than six-year low of 14.48. Smaller 3D priner makers Voxeljet ( VJET ) and ExOne ( XONE ) rose 8.6% and 7.6%, respectively, with ExOne achieving a nearly one-year high, and Voxeljet missing a five-month high by a penny. Merrill Lynch did not distribute the research report to the media, but according to a summary of the report from 24/7 Wall Street, Mohan wrote: “Our buy rating on 3D Systems is predicated on the strong likelihood that the new CEO will turn around the business through a new direction and strategy based on his experience as an executive of HP’s established printing business.” Mohan expects Joshi can boost earnings by improving operational efficiency and refocusing investments, “even while end-market demand remains subdued.” 3D Systems and Stratasys struggled last year. 3D Systems reported 2% revenue growth in 2015, to $666 million. At Stratasys, revenue fell 7% to $696 million. Revenue for both companies, year over year, declined in each of the last two quarters of the year, ending a long string of double-digit gains for the pair. New 3D Systems CEO Got High Marks At HP Terry Wohlers, president of Wohlers Associates , which provides technical, market and strategic analysis on the 3D printer market, says Joshi earned a strong reputation from his work at HP. “People have a high regard for his leadership,” Wohlers told IBD. “He can take 3D Systems to the next level.” Despite a challenging year, revenue from 3D printers, supplies and services overall rose 26% in 2015, to $5.16 billion, according to Wohlers Report 2016, the latest edition of an annual publication dedicated to 3D printing. This year, Wohlers forecasts the market will grow 29% to $6.7 billion, and that it will rise 31% to $8.8 billion next year. Still, Merrill Lynch aside, most analysts continue to take a cautious tone on 3D Systems and Stratasys, even after both reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings. Observers in general are not convinced of a full-scale rebound, even as 3D printing technology is increasingly embraced by corporations, governments and universities. And it’s not just observers who are wary. Executive of both 3D Systems and Stratasys have used a cautious tone when talking about 2016. Wohlers is not among the cautious crew, at least when looking down the road a bit. “If you view the industry through the lens of investors and share price, you will have a distorted view of what’s happening in the 3D printer market,” he said. The long-term future of the technology, he says, is strong. “Some of the biggest corporations and brands in the world are making significant investments in 3D printing,” Wohlers said. “We see a tremendous amount of activity that is advancing the industry.” Fabricating 3D Shoes, Jet Fuel Nozzles The 3D-printer believers include Nike ( NKE ) and General Electric ( GE ). Nike has said 3D printing has revolutionized the way it designs and manufactures footwear. GE has made big investments in 3D printing, which it calls additive manufacturing. GE used 3D printers to develop complex fuel nozzles for its next-generation jet engine, known as Leading Edge Aviation Propulsion, in a partnership with France-based Snecma. Lockheed Martin ( LMT ), Airbus ( EADSY ), NASA and United Technologies ( UTX ) are also becoming bigger users of 3D technology. While the boom in 3D printing is good news for Stratasys and 3D Systems, it has also attracted more competitors. In 2015, 62 manufacturers sold 3D industrial machines, up from 49 in 2014, says Wohlers. HP’s entry is expected to ripple through the industry. UBS analyst Steven Milunovich, in a March 31 research note, partly pointed to HP when he rated Stratasys as a sell, with a price target of 19. “The stocks of Stratasys and 3D Systems have jumped on a sequential Q4 revenue increase and outlook for slightly up revenue in 2016. However, we are becoming more concerned about HP’s entry later this year,” which could have a negative impact on the two industry leaders, he wrote. Troy Jensen, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, said in a research report on April 11 that he recently met with HP executives. “We believe HP is in the late stages of alpha trials and is planning a controlled launch within the next few months with a limited number of partners,” he wrote. HP has said its printers will be faster, more efficient and cost less than products currently on the market. Many 3D printer companies are based in Europe. Besides Germany’s Voxeljet, they include EOS Manufacturing Solutions, a fellow German firm and one of the largest 3D printer companies, with a wide range of 3D printers. Others are Germany-based SLM Solutions, Belgium’s Materialise and Sweden-based Arcam.