Tag Archives: dave-dierking

The Global X SuperDividend ETF Illustrates The Risks That Come With Yield Chasing

Summary The SuperDividend U.S. ETF has underperformed considerably this year posting a loss this year of 6.5% compared to a gain 0.6% for the S&P 500. The fund’s yield of over 7% may have been tempting for investors but the fund’s composition showed it took positions in riskier investments to achieve that yield. The fund increased its position in MLPs to around 15% of fund assets at the end of Q2 right around the time when losses in MLPs were accelerating. A heavier allocation to underperforming utility stocks also contributed to the fund’s poor performance. As Treasury yields remain near all time lows and bank products struggling to yield as much as 1%, investors often look to riskier products in search of higher yields. Corporate bonds sport modestly higher yields. That leaves a lot of people turning to much riskier equities for income. The SuperDividend family of ETFs from Global X was created to appeal to investors looking for a high yield product. The Global X SuperDividend ETF (NYSEARCA: DIV ) has been around since the beginning of 2014 tempting investors with yields as high as 6% and currently has a 30 day yield of over 7%. The fund has drawn nearly $300 million in total assets since its inception but some investors are now finding out the hard way that those high yields come with risks. High dividend equity ETFs like the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSEARCA: VYM ) and the iShares Core High Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: HDV ) have performed roughly on par with the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) year-to-date but DIV has lagged considerably. DIV Total Return Price data by YCharts A big chunk of the blame could come from the composition of the fund itself. The Vanguard and iShares ETFs are well diversified broadly among the major sectors. DIV is much more concentrated. As of 10/23/15, utilities and real estate count for nearly half of the portfolio. Real estate has performed in line with the S&P 500 but utilities have lagged the index by about four percent. DIV Total Return Price data by YCharts The biggest offender however could be MLPs. MLPs have gotten hammered this year as the Alerian MLP Index is down 30% year-to-date. The index’s losses accelerated just as DIV begin piling in. DIV Total Return Price data by YCharts Consider some of the fund’s most recent quarterly fact sheets. The holdings as of the end of the first quarter indicate that about 8% of assets were committed to MLPs At the end of the second quarter, MLPs accounted for over 15% of fund assets. It’s right around this time that you can see losses in the ETF began to accelerate. Even now, taking a look at the fund’s current assets shows that about 12% of the fund is still in MLPs. The Alerian MLP Index’s total return is still sitting over 40% below its high reached in 2014 thanks to the fall in oil and other energy prices. The MLP Index rallied over 20% between the end of September and the middle of October but a chunk of that gain has been given back demonstrating again that some of these high yielding investments aren’t necessarily conservative. Conclusion The moral of the story here is pretty simple. Higher yields usually mean higher risk. As we’ve seen this year, risk isn’t always rewarded as there’s been a pretty sizeable shift out of riskier assets into more conservative investments. But maybe another reason is that the ETF has just plain old performed lousy. The relatively high exposure to MLPs at a time when their value was tanking doesn’t help the fact that year-to-date the ETF has lagged almost every sector that it has a reasonable exposure to. It’s understandable that income seeking investors are looking for ways to improve on the low yields that they’re seeing in just about every other corner of the market. But one of the primary principles of investing is that the chance at higher returns usually only comes when taking on additional risk. Sometimes that risk doesn’t pay off and some investors may be learning that rule the hard way.

3 Ways To Play A Nearing Fed Rate Hike

Summary Thanks to weaker than expected job growth and retail sales along with global economic uncertainty, the futures market is not expecting a rate hike until into 2016. Investors want to plan for rising interest rates should look for investments with low duration, low interest rate sensitivity or that can profit from higher rates. In this article, I suggest three different ETFs that can fit those criteria. With the target Fed Funds rate sitting at 0% for the last 6+ years, the Fed is finally getting poised to raise interest rates again. Many watchers felt a rate hike in 2015 was imminent until a slew of economic data – weak job growth and retail sales data along with uncertainty in China – have pushed off rate hike expectations into 2016. Fed funds futures suggest that there’s only a 50-50 chance will see a rate hike at the March Fed meeting with the first likely hike coming in June. For those looking to protect themselves from rising rates, now might be a good time to reposition your portfolio. That means looking for investments that maintain a low duration, staying away from sectors that are highly rate sensitive and looking for stocks that can profit from higher rates. If you’re looking to stay away from interest rate risk, consider these ETFs for your portfolio. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: SHY ) This is the good old fashioned conservative approach. Its 30 yield of 0.49% won’t necessarily impress income seeking investors but with a beta of near zero this is exactly the type of risk averse investment that those looking for safety should consider. Since its inception in 2002, we’ve been able to see how the fund performs in both a rising rate and falling rate environment. In the 2004-2007 period when the Fed Funds rate rose from 1% to over 5%, the fund managed a total return of around 8%. Not a huge return by any means but it demonstrates how the fund was still able to generate a return even in a rapidly rising rate environment. In the subsequent 2007-2008 period during the financial crisis when the target Fed Funds rate dropped to 0%, the fund returned around 12%. These are solid returns in both scenarios but the risk minimization and capital preservation strategy of this ETF is what matters most. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSEARCA: KBE ) Banks profit when the yield curve is steeper and interest rates are higher. This fund debuted right at the tail end of when interest rates were rising in 2005. As you can see, the overall performance of the fund followed the Fed Funds rate downward. KBE Total Return Price data by YCharts Conversely, it would be expected that bank stocks should outperform when rates begin moving back up. Being an equity ETF, this will still experience the volatility that comes with investing in the stock market but it should be positioned better than the broader market when rates finally begin to move back up. The PowerShares S&P 500 ex-Rate Sensitive Low Volatility Portfolio (NYSEARCA: XRLV ) Debuting just earlier this year, this ETF looks to isolate the stocks of the S&P 500 that exhibit the lowest volatility and low interest rate sensitivity characteristics of the broader index. The fund’s composition is largely as one would expect. Most of the fund’s assets are invested in financials, industrials, consumer defensive and health care stocks – areas of the market that experience steady demand and are less prone to economic fluctuations. There’s not much of a track record to go on with this ETF but the strategy is such that it should help limit the downside associated with interest rate risk while maintaining broader exposure to the equity markets.

Leveraged Cybersecurity ETFs Are Debuting At A Dangerous Time

Summary Direxion launched two leveraged cybersecurity ETFs this past week. These ETFs may be debuting at a time when the popularity of cybsecurity stocks has already cooled and valuations are still very high. History has taught us the dangers of investors choosing to chase past performance or chasing “hot” stocks. It was probably just a matter of time before Direxion – one of the primary issuer of leveraged and inverse ETFs – jumped on the popularity of cybersecurity stocks. This past week, Direxion launched the Direxion Daily Cyber Security Bull 2X Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: HAKK ) and the Direxion Daily Cyber Security Bear 2x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: HAKD ) options on the cybersecurity sector. But like many products that get launched after the initial popularity soars, the timing often proves to be a dangerous investor trap. The first ETF to jump on the trend – the PureFunds ISE Cybersecurity ETF (NYSEARCA: HACK ) – has quickly racked up well over $1B in assets and was up over 30% within 8 months of its debut. Cybersecurity stocks have cooled off though thanks to the global economic environment and now the fund is up just marginally since it opened. HACK data by YCharts Followers of behavioral finance will tell you all about investors’ tendency to chase past returns and how it often results in buying high and selling low. You probably won’t be surprised to learn that AUM began ramping up at their fastest pace as cybersecurity stocks were peaking earlier this summer. Just in time for these investors to experience the subsequent pullback. Which is why launching a leveraged cybersecurity ETF right now is dangerous. Investors are still being told in the mainstream media that cybersecurity companies are “hot” and money is still pouring into these products. Even after the recent pullback, many of these cybersecurity companies are trading at very rich multiples. Many of these companies still have yet to turn a profit so measuring them by P/E would be unfair. Instead, let’s use the P/S ratio to try to gauge valuation levels. The S&P 500 as a whole currently trades at a P/S multiple of 1.63. Popular stocks in the sector include Palo Alto Networks (NYSE: PANW ) at 16.98, FireEye (NASDAQ: FEYE ) at 11.13, Fortinet (NASDAQ: FTNT ) at 8.97 and Checkpoint (NASDAQ: CHKP ) at 9.33. While the P/S ratio isn’t necessarily an all-in-one measure, it does go to say that even after the recent pullback cybersecurity companies are still very expensive and could indeed fall much further. Looking back at the Nasdaq bubble in 2000 gives us many examples of investments launched at the wrong time. Take the Jacob Internet Fund (MUTF: JAMFX ). This fund was one of the first mutual funds targeting primarily internet stocks at the time. In the six month period from roughly October 1999 through March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite rose over 175%. The Jacob Internet Fund debuted in December 1999 right as tech stocks were about to hit their peak. What happened next is still a good lesson in the dangers of chasing performance or “hot” stocks. The Jacob Internet rose around 20% in the few months after its debut but by the second half of 2001 the fund had lost around 95% of its 2000 peak value. JAMFX data by YCharts That’s not to suggest that a crash like that is imminent in cybersecurity companies but it does make very clear that jumping into a cybersecurity ETF – especially a leveraged cybersecurity ETF like the two launched last week that are designed to magnify the returns of the sector – could be especially dangerous. Conclusion Direxion is well within their boundaries launching these two ETFs right now but it might not be doing the average investor any favors. These ETFs have a triple whammy of risks – investing in risky cybersecurity stocks, investing in leveraged securities and investing when much of the frothy returns may have already been had. These ETFs are very much a case of “buyer beware” for investors. Disclosure: I am/we are long FEYE. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.