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Best And Worst Q1’16: Small Cap Value ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings

The Small Cap Value style ranks eleventh out of the twelve fund styles as detailed in our Q1’16 Style Ratings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. Last quarter , the Small Cap Value style ranked tenth. It gets our Dangerous rating, which is based on aggregation of ratings of 19 ETFs and 268 mutual funds in the Small Cap Value style. See a recap of our Q4’15 Style Ratings here. Figures 1 and 2 show the five best and worst-rated ETFs and mutual funds in the style. Not all Small Cap Value style ETFs and mutual funds are created the same. The number of holdings varies widely (from 13 to 1482). This variation creates drastically different investment implications and, therefore, ratings. Investors seeking exposure to the Small Cap Value style should buy one of the Attractive-or-better rated mutual funds from Figure 2. Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The First Trust Mid Cap Value AlphaDEX Fund (NYSEARCA: FNK ) and the Guggenheim S&P MidCap 400 Pure Value ETF (NYSEARCA: RFV ) are excluded from Figure 1 because their total net assets are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF (NYSEARCA: JKL ) is the top-rated Small Cap Value ETF and the Royce Special Equity Fund (MUTF: RSEIX ) is the top-rated Small Cap Value mutual fund. JKL earns a Neutral rating and RSEIX earns a Very Attractive rating. The Guggenheim S&P SmallCap 600 Pure Value ETF (NYSEARCA: RZV ) is the worst-rated Small Cap Value ETF and The Putnam Small Cap Value Fund (MUTF: PSLAX ) is the worst-rated Small Cap Value mutual fund. RZV earns a Dangerous rating and PSLAX earns a Very Dangerous rating. Standard Motor Products (NYSE: SMP ) is one of our favorite stocks held by RSEIX and earns a Very Attractive rating. Since 2004, Standard Motor Products has grown after-tax profit ( NOPAT ) by 19% compounded annually. Over this same time, the company has greatly improved its return on invested capital ( ROIC ) from 2% in 2004 to 13% over the last twelve months. Despite this long-term success, SMP is undervalued at current prices. At its current price of $33/share, SMP has a price-to-economic book value ( PEBV ) ratio of 0.9. This ratio means that the market expects SMP’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 10%. If Standard Motor Products can grow NOPAT by just 5% compounded annually for the next decade , the stock is worth $47/share today – a 42% upside. Raven Industries (NASDAQ: RAVN ) is one of our least favorite stocks held by ARIVX and earns a Dangerous rating. From 2005 to the last twelve months, Raven Industries has failed to grow NOPAT. Over the same time, the company’s profitability has tanked, with ROIC falling from 29% to 7%. With such poor fundamentals, it should be no surprise that RAVN is down 20% over the past decade. What may surprise you though is that RAVN remains overvalued. To justify its current price, Raven Industries must grow NOPAT by 6% compounded annually for the next 21 years . This expectation seems rather optimistic given Raven’s poor track record of profit growth. Figures 3 and 4 show the rating landscape of all Small Cap Value ETFs and mutual funds. Figure 3: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst Funds Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 4: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Funds Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings D isclosure: David Trainer and Kyle Guske II receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Investors Need To Understand The Risks Of Smart Beta

By Rhea Wessel The low-yield environment has many investors seeking new sources of outperformance. One development has been the growth of so-called smart beta investments, a $400 billion ETF market with a strong flow of funds from both institutions and retail investors. But are such funds really “smart” and do they truly have the potential to boost performance? To answer such questions, CFA Institute Magazine turned to Nick Baturin, CFA , formerly head of portfolio analytics at Bloomberg. He also spoke at the CFA Institute Annual Conference in Frankfurt in 2015. In this interview, Baturin discusses the rise of smart beta, its counterpart “dumb alpha,” and the need for investors to educate themselves about risks in this area. CFA Institute: First of all, what is smart beta? Nick Baturin, CFA : Smart beta investments are funds and ETFs that have a non-traditional weighting scheme that goes beyond cap weighting. There are many different types out there – equal-weighted, inversely risk-weighted, optimized to minimize risk, fundamental-weighted, factor tilts, dividend tilts, and dividend-weighted ETFs. There’s a whole taxonomy out there. The latest entrant in this space is a hybrid product which combines several themes into one. An example is the iShares enhanced index funds. These are active funds and they trade based on some of BlackRock’s research into well-known anomalies – the value anomaly, the quality anomaly, the size anomaly – and they optimize risk as well. They act like an active management quant fund but somewhat simplified. BlackRock does not give you all of their proprietary model insights that they use for their other actively managed quant funds. They give you a dumbed-down version of that. However, they’re also charging lower fees than for their actively managed quant funds. Another thing to note about smart beta indices: They have to rebalance a lot more often than passive buy-and-hold index funds, which are cap-weighted and typically rebalance just once or twice a year. You’ve talked about “dumb alpha.” What is that? There’s a lot of marketing hype going on. When I call smart beta “dumb alpha,” that’s a view that’s somewhat non-traditional. Obviously, it wouldn’t sit well with smart beta fund providers. I call it dumb alpha because traditional quantitative investors have known about these style tilts for several decades. They bet on factors such as value and momentum, quality and size. These have been used in quant investment strategies forever. I call them generic alpha factors rather than proprietary alpha factors. The difference between generic and proprietary is that proprietary cannot be easily replicated. You have some secret sauce, perhaps, at your own firm that only you know about, whereas with a value factor or size or momentum, everyone knows about it. You can implement this in a very straightforward manner. In that sense, it’s dumb alpha because you don’t need any complex implementation engine for it. What I’ve seen with smart beta is partially a marketing effort to rebrand these traditional generic alpha factors as smart beta funds. All they do is give you exposure to these traditional, generic quant factors, but in the ETF wrapper, and they charge a higher fee. So, basically, it’s a rebranding effort in my opinion. Is the higher fee justified? Well, the higher fee can be partially justified by the higher trading costs of these funds. And certain factors do have long-term outperformance records over the market portfolio. But you have to be very judicious. With a smart beta fund, the burden of decision as to what to invest in is no longer on the fund manager. It’s now on the investor. Should smart beta strategies be included in participant retirement plans? Fundamentally weighted funds bet on the value factor, but investors can also get value-factor exposure by investing in the Vanguard Value Fund, which is a cap-weighted fund which also gives you value exposure, but a lot cheaper. You have to be judicious. You cannot expect a retail investor to know the difference between smart beta and stupid beta and to evaluate the cost versus benefit tradeoff. If you call all smart beta ETFs “smart,” that becomes a confusing soup to choose from. You have momentum, you have value, you have quality, you have size; you have fundamental-weighted, risk-weighted. It’s a complicated array of products that is exposing retail investors to a lot more choices. This will take them a long time to learn about. I don’t think they are in a position to really drill down in much detail. Would I include smart beta in participant retirement plans? Possibly, but you have to select low-cost versions implementing well-known ideas that have been demonstrated to work over a long time and in different markets, like a value tilt. That’s a pretty solid factor. That’s one of the best ones out there. Is a fundamentally weighted index a good way to capture that? A fundamental index comes with additional attributes (factor exposures other than value) that are offered as a bundled deal. In that sense, a pure value tilt is probably a better exposure vehicle for retirement plans. If you are a retail investor, you are typically not sophisticated, and you respond to marketing and hype. It’s our job as investment managers to be honest with these investors and really explain performance beyond the hype. They have to know the risks and the rewards of investing in these products, and there are risks. The term smart beta is a great marketing slogan, and it has caught on. What are the risks? You may have a period of massive underperformance of a particular strategy. There’s a lot of academic research that says that actively managed funds collectively underperform passive cap-weighted indices in the long run. Vanguard founder John Bogle thinks that everything that’s not an index fund is a fraud. But does it mean that the market is truly efficient and there are no anomalies? No. There are anomalies. And there are risks – mainly, that any strategy will underperform. Let’s say everybody in the world piles into value strategies. Then value will stop working. The market-cap-weighted index is the only index that can theoretically be held by every investor in the market. You will all get the same exposure. But in the real world, there will always be some winners and some losers. After a lot of dollars flow into these smart beta funds, they will eventually stop working. We’ll have cut off the branch we were sitting on. What’s next in the world of smart beta? I’d say hybrid products that erase the boundary between active management and smart beta are where things are headed. Those are truly multi-factor, risk-aware investment strategies. These haven’t caught on just yet. The largest is just over 100 million in assets. That’s not a lot by the standards of the ETF market. But, nevertheless, these hybrid products that combine several anomalies in a risk-controlled way under one vehicle will become popular. It depends on the performance and the marketing. I think the marketing is a huge aspect of it all. We live in a low-yield environment with investors who are desperate to outperform the traditional indices and asset classes, so I think marketing has a huge role to play in whether or not these hybrid products catch on. What should investors watch out for in smart beta? There are definitely things to watch out for. I’d say don’t start out cold. You’ve got to educate yourself. Beware of risks. Beware of costs. Invest in more robust ideas, like value. Momentum isn’t robust. On that basis, my heart lies with lower-cost solutions that offer you a cheap value tilt. These are traditional cap-weighted value funds. They score highly for me because they are cheap and deliver on that factor tilt. There’s going to be periods of underperformance. At least over the very long term, you stand a chance of outperforming traditional cap-weighted indices. Disclaimer: Please note that the content of this site should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute.

Will Gold Continue Its Dominance Over Silver ETFs?

The weakness in the global financial markets has helped precious metals, like gold and silver, to recover their sheen in 2016. Sluggish growth in China since the beginning of the year and the global oil market turbulence has lifted safe-haven demand. The jump in gold and silver prices was also supported by plunging interest rates on a global scale. With the Fed not expected to raise interest rates in the near term, the rally is expected to continue. While gold has gained 18% and 11% year to date and in the past one month, respectively, silver has risen 10% so far this year and just 4.4% in February. Will the Trend Continue? Gold and silver prices have exhibited a strong correlation in the past 10 years. In fact, some investors regard silver as a leveraged play on gold. Per a regression analysis based on FactSet data, silver prices move 1.4 times the increase in gold prices on an average. In other words, if gold rises by 1% in a particular session, silver is expected to gain 1.45%. However, this year prices have gone the other way round as evident from the year-to-date and monthly figures. The outperformance of gold can be due to the fact that silver is widely used for industrial purposes. Weak manufacturing activities across the globe, particularly in China, have hurt the demand for the white metal, affecting its price. How to Play? But history they say repeats itself and the appreciation of gold prices over silver is not likely to be sustainable over the long run. This is because conditions in the U.S. market are slowly improving and industrial demand for silver is expected to get a boost from stepped-up domestic economic activity. Additionally, silver supply could contract given the dearth in deposits faced by the silver miners , forcing producers to look for fresh projects. Meanwhile, investors returned to risk-on trade sentiment in the recent week, which could affect the demand for gold bullion. Investors could play the market by going long on silver and short on gold. Below, we have highlighted some of the silver and inverse gold ETFs. Investors should note that since these inverse products when combined with leverage are very volatile, these are suitable only for traders and those with a high-risk tolerance and short-term outlook. Additionally, the daily rebalancing – when combined with leverage – may force these products to deviate significantly from the expected long-term performance figures. Still, for ETF investors who expect the outperformance of gold over silver to be short-lived, the products discussed below could make for interesting choices. Long on Silver iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SLV ) The fund tracks the price of silver bullion measured in U.S. dollars. It is the ultra-popular silver ETF with AUM of over $5 billion and heavy volume of nearly 6 million shares a day. It charges 50 bps in fees per year from investors. The fund holds a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a High risk outlook and has returned 10.2% so far this year. ETFS Physical Silver Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SIVR ) This fund has amassed $227.8 million in its asset base while trades in moderate volume of more than 82,000 shares per day on average. It tracks the performance of the price of silver less the Trust expenses and is backed by physical silver. Expense ratio is 0.30%. The fund also holds a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a High risk outlook and has returned 10.4% so far this year. PowerShares DB Silver ETF (NYSEARCA: DBS ) This product provides exposure to the silver futures market rather than spot market and tracks the DBIQ Optimum Yield Silver Index Excess Return index. It is has AUM of $19.5 million and average daily volume of less than 3,000 shares, increasing the total cost for the fund in the form of a wide bid/ask spread. DBS is the high cost choice in the silver bullion space, charging 79 bps in fees per year from investors. Like other silver ETFs, the fund holds a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a High risk outlook. In the year-to-date period, it has gained 10.4%. Short on Gold ProShares Ultra Short Gold ETF (NYSEARCA: GLL ) This fund seeks to deliver twice (2x or 200%) the inverse return of the daily performance of gold bullion in U.S. dollars; the gold price is fixed for delivery in London. GLL gains when the gold market falls and is appropriate for hedging purposes against the decline in gold prices. With an expense ratio of 0.95%, the product has AUM of $47 million and average daily volume of 21,000 shares. DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSEARCA: DZZ ) This ETN seeks to deliver twice (2x or 200%) the inverse return of the daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index-Optimum Yield Gold. DZZ initiates a short position in the gold futures market but charges a relatively lesser price of 75 bps a year. The product has amassed over $49.6 million in AUM. The ETN has volume of 432,000 shares a day. VelocityShares 3x Inverse Gold ETN (NASDAQ: DGLD ) This product provides three times (300%) short exposure to the daily performance of the S&P GSCI Gold Index Excess Return plus returns from U.S. T-bills net of fees and expenses. This $9.9 million ETN charges 135 bps in fees per year from investors and has average daily volume of 24,000 shares. Original Post