Tag Archives: data

LinkedIn, Tableau Specter Haunts Apple Chips, Security Stocks

Tech stock declines piled on Monday, snowballing after badly received quarterly reports last week from the likes of  LinkedIn ( LNKD ) and Tableau ( DATA ), whose stocks sheared off.  Apple ( AAPL ) supplier NXP Semiconductors ( NXPI ), GoPro ( GPRO ) supplier Ambarella ( AMBA ) and cybersecurity bigwig Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) all were down Monday following a brutal last week, among other decliners. IBD’s 26-company Computer Software-Security industry group was collectively down 6.9% in afternoon trading. The 41-company Electronics-Semiconductor Fabless industry group was down 2.7%. Ahead of the closing bell on the stock market today , Palo Alto stock was down 9%. Shares of CyberArk Software ( CYBR ), FireEye ( FEYE ) and Proofpoint ( PFPT ) were down about 9%, 9.5% and 10%, respectively. Shares of NXP and Ambarella were down 9.5% and 6.4%, respectively.  Apple suppliers Avago Technologies ( AVGO ) and Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS ) both fell more than 5% while Cirrus Logic ( CRUS ) and Qorvo ( QRVO ) were each down about 2%. Only a handful of stocks escaped the high-tech sell-off — a continuation of a Friday deluge that saw LinkedIn stock lose nearly half its value on Wall Street after the professional networker announced a low 2016 forecast. Compounding the pressure, analysts see Big Data analytics software maker Tableau losing market share to Amazon.com ( AMZN ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ). Tableau, too, guided to current-quarter sales and earnings that missed the consensus expectation. Security vendors lost 7.4% and fabless chip makers closed down 4% on Friday. NXP Halves Apple Exposure NXP’s plunge looks incongruous after the Apple chip supplier’s Q4 beat last week, but comes on a day when techs are broadly down, and amid an acquisition. In the long run, picking up Freescale is making NXP an automotive powerhouse  — sales in that segment bounded 45% year over year to $422 million. The Freescale deal also halves NXP’s Apple iPhone exposure as the smartphone giant deals with floundering demand. Apple chip suppliers Cirrus Logic, Qorvo, Qualcomm ( QCOM ) and InvenSense ( INVN ) recently issued March-quarter views that lagged the consensus . At least six analysts this month have rated NXP stock a buy, including two on Monday. A Jefferies analyst boosted his price target on NXP stock to 112 from 107. Ambarella stock sank as GoPro stock rocketed 10% as of Monday afternoon on its partnership with Microsoft. GoPro and Microsoft will partner on a patent-licensing agreement for file storage and other system technologies. “This agreement with GoPro shows the incredible breadth of technology sharing enabled through patent transactions,” Microsoft’s technology licensing president, Nick Psyhogeos, said in a press release. Last week, GoPro stock wiped out after missing Wall Street’s Q4 earnings views and guiding well below consensus Q1 expectations. Shares closed down nearly 9% on Feb. 4. But chip maker Ambarella missed the scrum and pulled ahead 5.1% that day. At least seven analysts cut their price targets on GoPro stock following the Q4 report. But at least three reiterated a buy rating, and another boosted his price target. Ambarella tried distancing itself from GoPro during its December quarter, instead highlighting the company’s expansion into drones and home security.

Tableau Might Prove Canary In Coal Mine For Broad Software Sector

Well, which canary is it? After Big Data analytics software maker Tableau Software ( DATA ) disappointed investors with Q1 and 2016 guidance  well below Wall Street expectations  — sending its stock crashing 49.5% Friday to an all-time low — Summit Research analyst Srini Nandury questioned whether Tableau “will prove to be the proverbial canary in the coal mine.” Nandury was referring to Tableau and prospects for its growth. But later Friday, in a research report, Robert W. Baird analyst Steven Ashley posed the identical question: “We wonder if Tableau will prove to be the proverbial canary in the coal mine.” Ashley’s canary was much bigger. “With among the smallest deal sizes and shortest sales cycles in enterprise software, Tableau theoretically would be the first to see any downturn in new pipeline business due to a macro weakness,” Ashley wrote, questioning whether other enterprise software vendors might follow. Investors got the point. Tableau rivals Splunk ( SPLK ) and  Qlik Technologies ( QLIK ) fell 23% and 15%, respectively, and little Hortonworks ( HDP ) — which may have been Big Data’s first canary with a 37% gap down Jan. 19 after a poor earnings report — fell 17%, also hitting an all-time low. Hortonworks The First Canary? Closing Friday at 8.48, Hortonworks is not only below its December 2014 initial public offering price of 16, but is also below the 9.50-a-share price Goldman Sachs set Tuesday for an 8.425 million-share secondary offering. Hortonworks’ Jan. 19 dive came after it filed with the SEC to raise $100 million in the secondary offering, coming after the worst opening two weeks of any year in the market’s history. On Tuesday, Hortonworks said in its new SEC filing that it had  raised only $77.19 million, before expenses. Evercore ISI analyst Bill Whyman told IBD on Friday, however, that he stands by his research issued Jan. 26, in which he acknowledged tech companies face continuing “weak” demand, but not so weak that stocks should be “falling off a cliff” like they have so far this year. “The harder question is: Are stocks anticipating that demand will fall off a cliff six months from now?” Whyman said. “The evidence to date does not make this our base case.” He expects 6% global tech revenue growth for 2016 vs. 2% in 2015, and offered a mixed bag when looking at sectors. He advises overweighting portfolios with software and Internet stocks, underweighting communications equipment and computing, and market-weighting (neither buying nor selling) semiconductor stocks. “We forecast ‘not-pretty-but-we’ll-take-it’ overall,” he said. Late Friday, however, his Evercore ISI colleague Kirk Materne, sang a tougher mine-canary tune, “as software officially enters the pain cave.” “If you wanted a cathartic event to wipe out any remaining optimism in the software space, (Tableau’s) earnings report was it,” Materne wrote in a research note. “Ironically, the idea that a license-based, visualization tool vendor (Tableau) that is facing growing pains would cause a 10% pullback in Adobe ( ADBE ) or 14% pullback in CRM ( Salesforce.com ( CRM )) would seem like a stretch, but welcome to the new reality. “While most of the major ‘blow-ups’ year-to-date in software have been more company specific (at least in my view) vs. a dramatic change in the fundamental backdrop, the reality is no one cares, and the broader de-risking in the sector is unlikely to end until we see a strong quarter from one of the higher-quality growth names like CRM or Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) (and the stock actually goes up) and/or until some of the smaller names throw in the towel and M&A picks up.” Palo Alto Networks stock fell 12% Friday, part of the general downturn. Database leader  Oracle ( ORCL ), which is still trying to accelerate its cloud business, fell 1.9% Friday, in line with Friday’s broader market decline. IBD’s entire Computer Software-Database industry group fell 15%. Other big names in the enterprise software market tumbling Friday included  SAP ( SAP ) (down 3.6%), Salesforce.com (13%), Workday ( WDAY ) (16%) and Manhattan Associates ( MANH ) (9%). IBD’s Computer Software-Enterprise group fell 8% Friday to a 2-1/2-year low. Qlik, CyberArk Software ( CYBR ), FireEye ( FEYE ) and Hortonworks are all scheduled to report earnings in the coming week, with the pressure on.

Tableau Tumbles On Microsoft Rivalry; Software Stocks Down Hard

Tableau Software ( DATA ) stock lost nearly half its value Friday, as investors reacted to weak first-quarter guidance late Thursday and the rise of Microsoft — and possibly Amazon.com — as a top rival in analytics, while enterprise software spending overall seems to be easing. Microsoft ‘s ( MSFT ) new PowerBI data-analytics software product, irresistibly priced for free against Tableau’s premium-priced product, won’t necessarily affect only Tableau’s campaign. Rival Workday ( WDAY ) stock was down 14% and Salesforce.com ( CRM ) was down 12% in midday trade in the stock market today . Security software stalwart  Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) stock was down 11%. Tableau stock, though, was down 49% as its outlook for this quarter and the full year lagged far below Wall Street expectations. Wall Street analysts, who were mostly upbeat about Tableau a day earlier, raced to downgrade ratings or reduce price targets. “Tableau reported revenue that beat consensus by only 1% (lowest ever), or about $2 million, when the average beat over last 11 quarters is around $11 million,” Summit Research analyst Srini Nandury said in a research note. Summit slashed its price target on Tableau stock to 45 from 80, and maintained a hold rating. “Given that the company pulled down guidance for 2016, we believe Tableau is in the penalty box for the foreseeable future,” Nadury said. “We remain on the sidelines given our belief that 1) comps will get tougher from these levels; 2) competition continues to materialize” with Qlik Technologies ( QLIK ), MicroStrategy ( MSTR ), Salesforce.com, Amazon.com ( AMZN ) and Microsoft “all gunning for a piece of the action; 3) the market may not be as big as some on the Street believe as most Excel users (as Tableau targets) would never need a visualization function; and, 4) low-hanging fruit already has been picked.” Tableau said it added more than 1,000 employees, many of them in sales, in 2015 and now has a total workforce of 3,000-plus. But Kelly Wright, executive vice president of sales, is leaving by year’s end. Responding to an analysts’ question, on the company’s earnings conference call, about her departure amid the sales force buildup, management downplayed the transition. When her retirement was announced in January, CEO Christian Chabot said, “Kelly has provided the sales leadership we needed and built a world-class sales team.” She was Tableau’s first salesperson in 2005. Business-intelligence software maker Splunk ( SPLK ) was down 25% midday Friday, while Qlik was down 15. Microsoft stock was down 2%.