Tag Archives: crowd

Stocks Are Cheaper Than Bonds, And Other Falsehoods

Summary Currently, the crowd continues to advance the notion that stocks are the only investment to be considered, despite the overvalued condition in risk assets. The notion that bonds are overvalued and underperform stocks, and that cash is earning 0% is also advanced by the crowd. In reality, cash and bonds offer investors tremendous value in a world of declining economic growth. This is especially true given that the economic risks are rising. Stock Market Valuations within the Context of Global Economic Instability: Implications for Portfolio Construction Stocks are cheaper than bonds, or so we are told by the crowd which was out in full force again for the September FOMC meeting, calling for a rise in interest rates, despite the fact that we have not met any of the conditions for such a rise in rates. One of the major reasons investors, and more specifically savers, have for why the Fed should raise interest rates is the notion that cash is currently earning close to 0% on savings, and money market balances. However, when viewed within the context of the global economic environment, and when we take into account the impact of a rising dollar on purchasing power, cash is providing investors with a very nice return. In a previous piece , I explored the reasons behind holding cash. As risk asset prices have risen to lofty levels, investors are far better, in my opinion, holding a majority of their assets in Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Bonds and cash. The Global Economy and the Rise of Deflationary Forces Why would I pursue a strategy of largely abandoning risk assets for fixed income and cash? For several reasons: 1. CAPE valuation The first reason is valuations. Valuations in the US are trading at levels that are more than 53% above its arithmetic mean and 65% above its geometric mean, as seen in the charts below. As the earnings season begins, the street is expecting a 4.6% decline in S&P earnings. I would contend that this is far more modest than what the actual numbers will turn out to be. The strong dollar continues to be a headwind, as is the decline in overall demand. This, combined with the complete decimation of the commodities complex , declining fundamentals in the global economy, and a FED that keeps the markets uncertain will likely lead to a severe drawdown in risk assets. In such an environment, cash and Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Bonds are excellent investments. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) 2. The Real Yield on Cash The U.S. dollar has been rallying in the face of rising deflationary forces globally. Over the past three years, the U.S. dollar has soared 14.6%. I expect further economic weakness, and growing challenges overseas, combined with extraordinary monetary policy from the BOJ and the ECB will drive the US dollar higher relative to the yen and euro as well as other foreign currencies. As the value of the dollar rises, so does the buying power of Americans cash balances, making the real yield on cash much higher than the current minimal rate of interest. 3. Deflationary Forces and Tepid Economic Growth The challenges overseas are well documented. Japan remains in an economic malaise, even as Abenomics attempts to bring it out of the doldrums. The eurozone remains entrenched in an extremely slow-growing economic environment on the verge of recession, with deflationary forces rising. Canada is currently in recession, and in the United States, many try to make the case that the economy is doing just fine. But the reality is that the economy is a patient in need of ICU classification, as the charts below will indicate. The labor force participation rate is at its lowest level since 1978. (click to enlarge) To those who believe this is largely caused by the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation, the next chart will be particularly useful in dispelling this idea. (click to enlarge) Falling industrial production and ISM Manufacturing (below) are not indicative of an economy running on all cylinders. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) The data point that I find most concerning is the complete collapse in velocity to the lowest levels in more than 50 years. Despite the Fed’s massive QE program, velocity has continued to decline. (click to enlarge) Implications for Portfolio Construction The world is currently on the verge of a recession . Conventional investment planning has largely failed to protect client assets multiple times in the 21st century, largely due to its reliance on risk assets for the majority of client capital. I believe in a more conservative approach that protects investor capital through a complete investment cycle. On February 18, 2013, Dr. John Hussman wrote an excellent commentary entitled ” The Sirens Song of the Unfinished Half-Cycle ,” in which he explains the overvaluation of the market and the likely drawdown that will result in the completion of this market cycle. (click to enlarge) Since Dr. Hussman wrote this commentary, valuations have only extended further, making the current conditions all the more unstable. These are not conditions in which I would, in good conscience, be overweight risk assets. Especially that which is needed for retirement, regardless of age. I believe capital preservation is the key objective, and I am willing to miss excess gains on the upside when the market gets expensive, rather than be exposed to a severe drawdown due to speculation in an overvalued market. As we seek to preserve capital, cash and cash equivalents (Treasuries) appear to be the best investment vehicles in a world of slow economic growth with rising deflationary and recessionary risks and overvaluations on risk assets that make future returns minimal. While the equity risk premium has already been debunked , the future will likely give us a further case study. One thing I have learned in my decades of investment experience is that the habits of successful investing are often contrary to common human behavior. This is why we seek to ignore the crowd and the noise that accompanies them. I have been writing about our extensive exposure to U.S Treasury bonds for some time. Currently, Treasury bonds are one of the most vilified assets around, and yet, from 2008-2015, long-term Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury bonds have returned 107.91%, while the S&P 500 has returned 64.89%. During this entire period of time, the crowd was vilifying Treasury bonds and telling investors to favor equities. In this case, following the crowd would have cost you a 43.02% gain. Conclusion While many investors and savers may be frustrated by the lack of interest they are earning on their cash balances, the buying power of their cash continues to rise as the value of the US dollar increases. In this environment, cash and cash equivalents are king, and as major headwinds from global growth concerns and U.S. dollar strength, among other factors, begin to reduce the earnings power of U.S. companies, the market will correct in tandem. Additionally, we face continued market uncertainty surrounding monetary policy and the possibility of a government shutdown later this year, which could cause additional stress on the market. I continue to feel comfortable with the majority of our assets in cash and long-term Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury securities as well as select short positions, with an underweight in equities, favoring cheaper-priced foreign equities over those of the expensive U.S. market.

‘The Wisdom Of Insecurity’ In The Stock Market

Over the past few years, the idea of “passive investing” has increasingly resonated with the general public. Money has rushed out of actively-managed mutual funds and into index funds at a rapid rate. Most recently, the passive investing ethos has grown so strong it now reminds me of some hard-core religions that take an unwaveringly literal interpretation of their founding texts. In the case of passive investing, these founding texts are the “efficient-market hypothesis” (EMH) and “modern portfolio theory” (MPT). Created and developed by ingenious men with noble intentions, these theories put forth wonderful arguments for the wisdom of the crowd and the incredible value of diversification, among others. Like most religious texts, however, the main problems arise in their interpretation and implementation. As Alan W. Watts explains in The Wisdom Of Insecurity , “the common error of ordinary religious practice is to mistake the symbol for reality, to look at the finger pointing the way and then to suck it for comfort rather than follow it.” Investors, too, must think critically about the effectiveness of these theories when it comes to practical application rather than take them literally on blind faith. It pays to remember that blind faith in these sorts of mathematical models leads even nobel prize winners to disastrous results. As my friend Todd Harrison likes to say, ” respect the price action but never defer to it .” Clearly, there is value in understanding and incorporating the ideals of these theories. There is also danger in simply deferring to them because the costs of their shortcomings can, at times, overwhelm the benefits of their wisdom. Like the Long-Term Capital boys learned, as soon as you really need to lean on them they vanish like a cheap magic trick. Where these theories go wrong in their practical application is that they both assume there are only rational participants in the markets. While the crowd may be right most of the time, there are clearly times when the crowd is not rational (note the preponderance of manias throughout the history of finance). In fact, the proprietors of these models have acknowledged this Achilles’ heel themselves. The most successful professional investors like Warren Buffett, Paul Tudor Jones, John Templeton, George Soros and Jim Rogers, know this well. Their methodologies are even built upon the idea that an intelligent investor can get ahead by taking advantage of those times the crowd becomes irrational, the antithesis of the EMH and MPT. So saying you believe in passive investing is fine and, in fact, I’ll grant it’s better than most of the alternatives. It will work great most of the time. But know that, just like some fanatics deny evidence that disproves the idea that cavemen and dinosaurs coexisted, you are denying the overwhelming evidence that suggests its foundations are simply not to be relied upon during those rare times when market participants abandon rational thought for panic or euphoria. Make no mistake, those selling this idea of passive investing are selling a very good product. I firmly believe it’s a large step above most of the alternatives out there, more so in the case of those selling it at a minimal cost . But I fear investors are also being sold a false sense of security today. I believe investors passively buying equities today are doing so under one of two false assumptions. They either believe that future returns will look something like they have over the past 40 years or that because the market is totally efficient it’s currently priced to deliver risk-adjusted returns that are acceptable given the current low-yield environment. The first assumption is something I have called the ” single greatest mistake investors make ” and it’s a trap even the Federal Reserve admits it regularly falls into. The second assumption runs into the problem of the evidence which suggests there is a very good likelihood returns from current prices will be sub-par , if not sub-zero over the next decade. And the reason returns are likely to be poor going forward is investors have pushed prices to levels that nearly guarantee it. In my view, passive investors have irrationally relied upon the idea that the market is rational, and therefore attractively priced, in pouring money into equity index funds, sending equity values to heights never before seen (on median valuations) virtually guaranteeing themselves they’ll be disappointed. Just because the future of the stock market is bleak doesn’t mean investors should ignore these facts or have them withheld from them. Ignorance may be bliss but it is not a valid investment methodology. Those with a religious sort of belief in passive investing and its main tenets need not abandon it to acknowledge its limitations. In fact, a little insecurity would go a long way for the growing hoard of passive investors in today’s market.