Ultimate Software Gains Momentum, Beats Street, Raises Forecast
Shares of enterprise software maker Ultimate Software Group ( ULTI ) jumped 6% in morning trade before settling back, following Tuesday’s impressive first-quarter report, which beat Wall Street’s top and bottom lines. Ultimate, which specializes in HCM SaaS — human capital management software as a service — reported first-quarter EPS up 40% to 73 cents minus items, eight cents beyond consensus, on sales up 29% to $187 million, where Wall Street expected $180 million. With 2016 gaining momentum, Ultimate also raised its full-year forecast to 26% sales growth from 25% “and now claims 99% visibility into this goal,” noted Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne. Materne raised his price target to 200 from 195 “based on the continued acceleration in the business, especially in the midmarket,” he said in a Wednesday research note, reiterating a hold rating. “All in all, we believe the company remains on track to hit its $1 billion revenue target in 2018; and with the company’s current (2016) guidance implying (an approximately) 275 basis-point decline in recurring revenue growth in (the second half vs. the first half), we expect that estimates could potentially have room to move higher over the course of the year.” More bullishly, FBR analyst Samad Samana said in a Wednesday research note, Ultimate ultimately “can deliver accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion in 2016.” Samana raised FBR’s price target on Ultimate to 220 from 205 while maintaining an outperform rating. Climbing the right side of a 25-week cup base, Ultimate stock jumped 6% to 209.71 in morning trade before settling back to a 0.5% gain near 198 in the stock market today , 8% off a 216.27 record high set Nov. 9. Ultimate’s enterprise rivals and peers were mixed Wednesday, with Salesforce.com ( CRM ) down 1.5% to 75.05, while SAP ( SAP ) was up 1.2% to 80.43, less than 1% from recent highs. Legacy software developer Oracle ( ORCL ) was down fractionally. Microsoft ( MSFT ) was off 1%. One stock in IBD’s Computer Software-Enterprise industry group, that of cloud advertising software developer Rubicon Project ( RUBI ), enjoys a slightly better IBD Composite Rating than Ultimate: Rubicon’s best-possible 99 vs. Ultimate’s 98. Salesforce carries a 93 CR and SAP 72. Outside the group, Oracle is rated 60 and Microsoft 43. Ultimate’s 40% EPS growth rate was the best in eight quarters, but its 29% sales pace was the best in at least 19 periods. For the second quarter, Ultimate guided its adjusted operating margin to 20% and total sales to $187 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting earnings of 77 cents per share minus items on revenue of $185 million. A year ago in Q2, Ultimate earned an adjusted 62 cents per share on sales of $147 million. Needham analyst Scott Berg said he was “impressed” that Ultimate reported consecutive quarterly deferred revenue growth exceeding 30% in the first quarter and year-to-year deferred revenue up 34.5%, its best in at least six years. He reiterated a buy rating with a 220 price target.