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Tracking The Sequoia Fund: Q3 2015 Update

Summary Year-to-date, the fund is up 1.97%, versus -5.29% for the S&P 500. Top 10 holdings (65.2% of the fund): Valeant Pharmaceuticals, Berkshire Hathaway, TJX Companies, O’Reilly Automotive, Fastenal, Precision Castparts, MasterCard, Idexx Laboratories, Mohawk Industries, and Google. During the third quarter, the fund was adding to its positions in Rolls-Royce, Constellation Software, and Jacobs Engineering. An update on Valeant Pharmaceuticals. Since its inception on 7/15/1970 an investment in the Sequoia Fund (MUTF: SEQUX ) has returned 14.34% annually versus 10.65% for the S&P 500. The fund is noted for its long-term value investing style, portfolio concentration, and outperforming in down years. For more background on the fund you can check out my original article here . The big news for the Sequoia Fund is the Valeant Pharmaceuticals controversy. The fund started accumulating shares in the second quarter of 2010 and by the end of the year held 11.3 million shares. The stock price during this period ranged from $14 to $30. You can find the fund’s reasoning for getting into the company in the 2010 annual report, which you can find here . Valeant quickly became the fund’s largest position. It said at the time: Valeant and Biovail merged during the year, and on December 31 the combined company, called Valeant, was our second largest holding. In recent weeks, rapid appreciation in Valeant shares caused it to surpass Berkshire and become Sequoia’s largest holding. It is the first time in nearly 20 years that Berkshire has not been the largest investment in the Fund. Speaking of Berkshire, it was Charlie Munger that first sounded the alarm that all might not be up to snuff. Munger is Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation and was asked about Valeant at the last annual meeting. He responded: Valeant is like ITT and Harold Geneen come back to life, only the guy is worse this time. For those unfamiliar with the ITT story you can check out this article , which gives a nice summary. Basically, like Valeant, ITT was built up on acquisitions and debt. And what was once a growth story turned into a mish mash of debt laden businesses. Despite Munger’s warnings Valeant’s stock continued its upward trajectory, reaching a high of $263.81 on August 6th. Munger wasn’t the only one suspicious of the stock. On August 13 blog AZ Value Investing published an article on Valeant, calling it a dangerous story told well. You can find the article here . Trouble for Valeant was just around the corner. On September 17th infectious disease website Healio reported that Turing Pharmaceuticals raised the price of its Daraprim drug from $13.50 per tablet to $750. The USA Today followed up with its own article the next day and did the math for us, noting the price hike was 5,000%. Then Hillary Clinton jumped on board, tweeting on September 21st: Price gouging like this in the specialty drug market is outrageous. Tomorrow I’ll lay out a plan to take it on. That put all specialty pharma companies in the crosshairs, including Valeant. In a week the stock dropped from $245 to $155. But the pain wasn’t over. On September 28 Citron Research, a specialist in unearthing frauds and terminal business models, published a report saying a congressional subpoena to Valeant on price gouging should be granted. Plus it gave a short term price target of $130 with the stock in the $170-$180 range at the time. The initial report didn’t move the stock much. But sure enough on October 14 subpoenas were issued. And then Citron wrote another report detailing the whole Philidor RX issue. By the time the dust had settled Valeant had dropped 50%, from $180 to $90, in just a few days. On October 28 the Sequoia Fund addressed the issue in a letter to shareholders which you can find here . Key comments: The short seller Andrew Left (of Citron Research), writing as Citron Research, exploited the negative sentiment surrounding Valeant. Our consultations with lawyers who specialize in the pharmaceutical industry lead us to believe there is no legal reason Valeant can’t advise, control or own Philidor. We work hard to understand Valeant and its business model. Our belief has always been that Pearson is honest and extremely driven. He does everything legally permissible to maximize Valeant’s earnings. At a recent price of $110, Valeant trades for about seven times the consensus estimate of 2016 cash earnings, which does not strike us as a rational price for a company with a diverse collection of product lines and strong earnings growth. So it appears the Sequoia Fund is sticking with Valeant. As of 6/30/15 Valeant was a $2.5 billion position in the fund, and its largest, accounting for 28.7% of the fund. As of 9/30/15 Valeant was a $2.0 billion position in the fund, and its largest, accounting for 24.8% of the fund. Based on my numbers, assuming the fund didn’t sell any shares, the position is now worth about $1 billion at a price of $90. It will be interesting, to say the least, to see the fund’s activity in Valeant during the fourth quarter of 2015. Here’s the fund activity for the third quarter of 2015. New Stakes: None. Stake Disposals: None. Stake Increases: Rolls-Royce ( OTCPK:RYCEY ) designs, develops, manufactures, and services integrated power systems worldwide. The company is known for its expertise in making engines for wide body jets. The fund has been in Rolls-Royce since 2007. It built up the position to over 12 million shares by the end of 2008. Since then it’s held, save very minor selling. Despite continuing to hold, the fund is very concerned over the position. While it admires its jet engine business, it questions the board of directors recent decisions to diversify into marine engine and power generation businesses. It’s also concerned the company is abandoning its Total Care service contract selling model which was very successful under the former CEO. As for the current CEO, John Rishton, the fund says, “… in our meetings with him, has shown minimal awareness of the returns on capital his acquisitions have generated.” The fund was selling in the second quarter of 2015, trimming the position by 437k shares when prices traded between $13.75 and $16.00. Rolls Royce announced in April that John Rishton was retiring and be replaced by John Rishton. The fund must like East’s plan as they did an about face in the third quarter of 2015, adding just over 7 million shares as prices ranged from $9.75 to $13. Constellation Software ( OTCPK:CNSWF ): Constellation Software, based out of Toronto, acquires, manages, and builds vertical market software (VMS) businesses. The fund likes the company because the software they provide tend to be essential to the customers’ operations. It also likes Constellation for being an adept acquirer and then increasing the cash flow of acquisitions. During the fourth quarter of 2014 the fund acquired 257k shares for a 1.09% position. Prices for the fourth quarter of 2014ranged from $240 to $300 for the ADR. During the third quarter of 2015 the fund added another 165k shares boosting its position by 64%. Prices ranged from $380 to $460. This is now a 2.19% position in the portfolio. Jacob’s Engineering (NYSE: JEC ) provides technical, professional, and construction services to industrial and government clients. The fund first established a position in the fourth quarter of 2013, picking up 743k shares when prices ranged from $56 to $64. That turned out to be near the high point for the stock which has been falling since January of 2014. The fund added another 716k shares in the second quarter of 2014 when prices traded between $53 and $65. This past quarter the fund added another 764k shares. Prices traded between $36.50 and $44.50. This stock is a 1% position in the portfolio. Stake Decreases: None. Kept Steady : Omnicom (NYSE: OMC ), Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP ), Compaignie Financiere Richemont SA ( OTCPK:CFRUY ), O’Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY ), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ ), Sirona Dental Systems (SRIO), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A & BRK.B), Danaher (NYSE: DHR ), EMCOR Group (NYSE: EME ), Trimble Navigation (NASDAQ: TRMB ), Mohawk Industries (NYSE: MHK ), Expeditors International (NASDAQ: EXPD ), Perrigo Company (NYSE: PRGO ), Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX ), West Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: WST ), Zoetis (NYSE: ZTS ), Fastenal Company (NASDAQ: FAST ), Praxair (NYSE: PX ), IMI plc ( OTCQX:IMIAY ), MasterCard (NYSE: MA ), Brown & Brown (NYSE: BRO ), Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL ) and (NASDAQ: GOOG ), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ), International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM ), Waters Corporation (NYSE: WAT ), Admiral Group ( OTCPK:AMIGY ), Hiscox Ltd. ( OTC:HCXLY ), Verisk Analytics (NASDAQ: VRSK ), Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST ), Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF ), TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX ), Walmart (NYSE: WMT ), Croda International ( OTCPK:COIHY ), Cabela’s (NYSE: CAB ), and Idexx Laboratories (NASDAQ: IDXX ) saw no changes from the second quarter of 2015 to third quarter of 2015. Here’s a snapshot of the activity from the second quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2015: (click to enlarge) Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Microcap Investing, The Ian Cassel Way

Note: This interview was published in the November 2015 issue of our premium newsletter, Value Investing Almanack . To gain instant access to more such interviews and other interesting stuff on value investing and business analysis, click here to subscribe now . Ian Cassel is the founder of MicroCapClub.com , which is an exclusive forum for experienced microcap investors focused on microcap companies (sub-$300m market cap) trading on the U.S. and Canadian markets. Ian has been investing in microcaps for 15 years and has been a full-time microcap investor since 2008. Ian looks to invest in great management teams running great businesses with a moat. He tries to invest in the best 5-6-7 companies he can find at all times. Ian founded MicroCapClub in 2011 to be a place for “real” and experienced investors in the microcap space to share ideas and learn from one another. When Ian isn’t researching stocks or administering MicroCapClub, you can find him reading, golfing, or shopping at Costco with his wife. Let’s now jump straight into the interview. Safal Niveshak (SN): Could you tell us a little about your background, how you got interested in investing and also about your wonderful blog microcabclub.com? Ian Cassel (IC): I’m 34 years old, married, and have a daughter. I live in the U.S. in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Lancaster is a rural community mostly known for our Amish people . I am not Amish. I’m a full-time private microcap investor, which is a fancy way of saying I only invest my own capital (no family, friends, or clients) and only in small public companies called microcaps. I started investing in 1997. My parents had saved me approximately $25,000 for college. This was all I was getting, so they felt they should let me know before I started applying to Universities. At the same time, I was getting more interested in the stock market. I had met my parents’ financial advisor who was telling me about exciting technology companies. After much deliberation, I decided to go to a local less-expensive University so I could also work full time and pay for my tuition as I went. This way I could invest the full $25,000 in these exciting tech companies. I was going to get rich! In 1999, I went to Millersville University (Major: Economics), and worked full-time for a local financial advisor (I answered the phones). When the tech bubble burst in 2001, I lost 80% of my money; however, this wasn’t the biggest lesson that I learned. The financial advisor I worked for had over 1,100 clients, and when the tech bubble burst I literally heard from all them. ‘every day’ for months I would go into work, the phones would start ringing and clients would yell, scream, cry etc. I was a human punching bag. After a couple weeks I grew numb to their emotions. I also realized at that very moment I didn’t ever want to manage other people’s money. Investing is hard enough dealing with your own emotions let alone those that don’t have the mental/educational constructs. My goal was to become a full-time private investor. I just needed time to allow my capital base to snowball. In 2001-02, I started looking at smaller and smaller companies and ended up in the microcap space. I stumbled on a microcap company called XM Satellite radio in 2002. I tell the full story in detail here . Short version is I met with management, invested the little money I had left at $1.78/share, and in 14 months the stock went to $34/share. It was 99.99% luck, but my love affair with microcaps was born. From that point on, I started focusing on microcaps. Soon after, I started visiting microcap companies doing physical stock research. I felt microcaps were the best place to gain exclusive public information that could give me an edge. I graduated from Millersville University in 2003, and went right into an MBA program at Villanova University. When I wasn’t in class I was talking to management teams and other microcap investors. I learned by losing my money over and over again. I graduated from Villanova University in 2005 and started working for a firm that advised microcap companies. After six months I quit and started my own advisory firm. You can learn more about that experience here . Advising microcap management teams gave me first-hand experience on what management teams go through from an investor-capital markets perspective. I enjoyed advising, but the goal was to quit as soon as I had enough capital to be a full-time private investor. In late-2008, in the middle of the great recession, I quit advising and became a full-time private microcap investor. I now invest primarily in North American microcaps under $300 million market cap. There are approximately 11,000 microcap companies in North America, so there are plenty of rocks to turn over. Let me now talk a bit about MicroCapClub that was founded in 2011 and was formed to be an exclusive forum for experienced microcap investors to exchange ideas, collaborate on due diligence, and learn from each other. Our focus is quality over quantity in everything we do. We only have 140 members. Over the last four years, members have profiled 50+ companies that have doubled or more. Our goal is to find great companies early. Due to demand from those that don’t have the ability and/or time to apply, we are launching a subscription product offering later this year. We also recently announced the first MicroCap Leadership Summit, which will be focused on creating better investors and finding great companies early. I’m honoured to have Sanjay Bakshi, Paul Lountzis, Chris Mayer, and others speaking at our inaugural event. On our MicroCapClub Blog, myself, my partner Mike Schellinger and a few other experienced microcap investors post educational content on microcap investing. The goal with our blog is to inspire, motivate, and educate others on microcap investing. You can find me on Twitter . My mind tends to think in 140 characters. I enjoy saying more with less words and sharing my thoughts on life and investing. SN: What a wonderful story that was, Ian. Thank you so much for laying bare about yourself and your past. You are a microcap investor now. So, what’s your broad investment philosophy, and how has it evolved over the years? IC: Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Joel Greenblatt and many others started their careers investing in microcaps. Some of the best performing public companies ever, including: Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A ) (NYSE: BRK.B ), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ), Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN ), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX ), etc. started as small microcap companies. I’m sure you have many other examples of this in India, but the key to outsized returns is finding great companies early. If I could sum up my investment philosophy in one sentence, it would be – My goal is to own the smallest, most illiquid, least institutionally owned, best businesses I can find that are run by intelligent fanatics. I’m a long-only, quality focused, concentrated investor, investing in the best 4-5-6 companies I can find. I will hold my position as long as the management executes. I believe in deep qualitative analysis and constant maintenance due diligence so that I always know what I own. My edge is knowing my positions better than most. This gives me the conviction to hold multibaggers and the ability to see when the story changes so I can sell before the masses. The key to outsized returns is finding great companies early, when they are small companies. When you are evaluating small companies, often times they don’t have a long operating history (3 years or less). The best performing companies in North America over the last five years include companies like BioSyent ( OTCPK:BIOYF ) (170-bagger), Xpel ( OTC:XPLT ) (243-bagger), and Where Food Comes From ( OTCQB:WFCF ) (93-bagger). These companies are still microcaps today. Hindsight is 20/20 and it’s easy to think, “Yeah I would have bought these companies five years ago.” I highly doubt that. If you were to look at these three companies five years ago you wouldn’t have touched them. These companies were literally trading at a $1 million market caps with little fundamental value. Reading their financial reports gave you very little foresight into the future. They weren’t obvious. With many microcaps you have to place your bet before you have full conviction. Earlier in my investment career, I would buy a full position all at once. This works when the company works, but you can lose a lot of money if you are wrong. The biggest change in my strategy is I now prefer to buy a full position over time as my conviction grows and as management executes. My biggest winners were companies where I was constantly averaging up . SN: That’s a wonderful strategy indeed – averaging up on quality stocks as your conviction builds up. Anyways, talking about microcap investing, how are the dynamics here different from say midcap of smallcap investing? Also, what excites you and worries you most in being a microcap investor? IC: Illiquidity is a big driver of outsized returns. It just so happens that most small public companies are illiquid. The main reason for this is larger pools of capital, mainly institutions, can’t invest in small illiquid companies. Even for smaller institutions managing $10-50 million, it is problematic buying a meaningful position. Many small microcaps trade $5,000-10,000-20,000 of volume per day. In addition, taking a $500k, $1m, $2m, position in a company might not move the needle for an institution. Warren Buffett started investing in microcaps, but quickly grew out of the space and was forced to look at bigger companies. Now Buffett admits, he can really only look at the largest 200 companies in the world because it’s the only way to move the needle. The microcap space is always losing its best investors, as they have to invest in bigger companies. Larger, smarter, money can’t invest in microcaps and this creates inefficiency. Accessibility to management is what got me hooked on microcaps. You can’t access management of larger companies. Evaluating microcap management teams are important for two reasons. First, the smaller the company the more you should focus on management and qualitative analysis. CEOs of small microcap companies tend to wear a bunch of hats, so their influence is much greater than larger companies. Microcap investing is really entrepreneurial investing. So not only “can” you talk to management, but you really “need” to talk to management. I’m cautious in saying this because not every small investor should expect to be able to call up and talk to management. The point I’m making is on quarterly conferences calls, etc. take advantage of the opportunity to ask good questions. Second, when you meet with management you gain incredible insight into how the operator thinks and solves problem. I’m looking to invest for the long-term so I need to understand the long-term vision. I’m a concentrated investor in illiquid investments, so you can always find something to worry about. I don’t worry about illiquidity ; I just worry about being right. If I’m right the companies will become liquid. This is why it’s imperative you know your positions better than most. SN: That’s a wonderful insight Ian, i.e., worrying about being right. Thanks for sharing! Anyways, do you believe in the concept of ‘circle of competence’ given your focus on microcap investing where every company might look like a different industry altogether? If yes, how have you built it over the years? IC: Yes, I believe in staying within your circle of competence. From time to time I meander outside my circle of competence and the market teaches me a lesson. Investing is a lifelong education and its teacher is loss. Many of your readers remember what Tom Watson Sr., founder of IBM (NYSE: IBM ) said, “I’m no genius. I’m smart in spots – but I stay around those spots.” There are 11,000+ microcap companies that trade on the U.S./Canadian markets. I personally only look to initially invest in microcaps

Rate Hike In The Cards: How Will Bond ETFs React?

With the U.S. economy gaining traction lately on a solid job market and moderate inflation, the chances of an interest rates hike is pretty high. The market is anticipating the first rate hike in nearly a decade at the December 15-16 policy meeting. If this happens and the Fed starts tightening, it will result in higher yields and lower bond prices as both yields and bond prices are inversely related to each other. How Bonds React to Higher Rates? The impact on prices is not the same for all bonds when rates rise. It primarily depends on duration and maturity. Duration is a measure of a fund’s sensitivity to a 1% change in interest rates. The longer the duration, the more sensitive the fund is to the changes in interest rates. This can be explained with the following example: consider a 10-year maturity investment grade corporate bond with duration of 8.4 years and coupon rate of 3.5%. If interest rates go up by 2%, then the bond will lose 15% of its market value. On the other hand, the same investment grade corporate bond with duration of 14.5 years, maturity of 30 years and coupon rate of 4.5% will lose 26% of its value if interest rates are raised by 2%. As a result, bonds having higher duration will experience significant losses when interest rates rise. Below, we have presented three ETFs that have a higher duration and are more vulnerable to an increase in interest rates. PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSEARCA: ZROZ ) This ETF follows the BofA Merrill Lynch Long US Treasury Principal STRIPS index and holds 20 securities in its basket. Both effective maturity and effective duration are 27.28 years. The fund has accumulated $162.3 million in its asset base and trades in average daily volume of 44,000 shares a day. It charges 15 bps in annual fees and lost 0.7% over the past one month. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA: EDV ) This fund seeks to match the performance of the Barclays U.S. Treasury STRIPS 20-30 Year Equal Par Bond Index. The fund holds 73 bonds in total with effective maturity of 25.0 years and average duration of 24.6 years. Expense ratio came in at 0.12%. The product has amassed $368.6 million in its asset base while sees moderate volume of 51,000 shares per day on average. It lost 0.7% over the past one month. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) This is one of the most popular and liquid ETFs in the long-dated bond space with AUM of over $6.1 billion and average daily volume of more than 8.8 million shares. It tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index, holdings 31 securities in its basket. The fund has average maturity of 26.51 years and effective duration of 17.23 years. It charges 15 bps in annual fees and was down 1.3% over the past one month. Ultra-Short Bond ETFs We also highlight three ultra-short bond ETFs with lower duration and interest rates’ risk. These funds offer investors greater protection against interest rate risk compared to the mid- and long-term counterparts. SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSEARCA: BIL ) This product offers exposure to the short end of the yield curve by tacking the Barclays 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index. It holds 10 securities in the basket with average maturity and effective duration of 0.09 years each. The fund has amassed $2.2 billion in its asset base while trades in solid volume of 1.5 million shares. It charges 14 bps in annual fees and delivered flat returns in the past one month. Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration ETF (NYSEARCA: GSY ) This is an actively managed fund that seeks to maximize income by outperforming the Barclays Capital 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index along with preservation of capital and daily liquidity. The fund charges 25 bps in annual fees and has amassed $504.6 million in its asset base. Volume is good as it exchanges about 152,000 shares a day on average. Holding 148 securities in its basket, the ETF has average duration of 0.17 years and average maturity of 1.03 years. GSY was relatively flat in last one-month period. iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (BATS: NEAR ) This actively managed ETF looks to maximize current income through diversified exposure to short-term bonds such as Treasuries, corporate bonds, asset-backed debt, and commercial mortgage-backed securities. The effective duration of the fund is 0.37 years while average maturity is 0.95 years. The product has accumulated $1.9 billion in AUM and trades in solid volume of 356,000 shares a day. It charges investors 25 bps in fees a year and added 0.14% in the past one month. Conclusion Given that not all bonds behave similarly to the increase in interest rates, investors should understand the impact of higher rates on bonds before investing in them. Notably, short-term bond ETFs are less impacted by higher interest rates. Original Post