Tag Archives: contests

The Timeless Wisdom Of Sir John Templeton

By Tim Maverick Sir John Templeton (1912-2008) may be gone, but he’s still remembered as one of the greatest investors of all time. For one, Sir John popularized the idea of investing globally for U.S. investors. He launched his flagship Templeton Growth Fund when most didn’t even think of investing outside U.S. borders . That pioneering fund racked up an enviable track record, returning an average of 13.8% annually from 1954 to 2004. To this day, many of Templeton’s timeless investing principles still apply. Indeed, some of his principles have shaped how I approach investing. Below are a few of them. They come courtesy of the Franklin Templeton website and the Templeton Foundation. #1: Buy Low Seems obvious, right? But in reality, many investors do the opposite. They chase hot sectors after dramatic moves higher. Sir John always scoured the globe for bargains. He told investors to buy when everyone else is selling, when things look darkest, when all the experts say a certain investment is too risky. Templeton advised us to “buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are avidly buying.” He would often say, “People are always asking me where the outlook is good, but that’s the wrong question. The right question is: Where is the outlook most miserable? The obvious application of this concept in practice is to avoid following the crowd.” I wonder what Sir John would think of today’s market, where the elite tech and biotech stocks are loved and everything overseas and commodities-related is detested? #2: Invest for the Long Term Hand in hand with value investing is investing for the long term. Templeton said, “Experience teaches us that one of the most common errors in selecting stocks… is the tendency to emphasize only the most obvious factor – namely, the temporary outlook for sales and profits of the company.” In other words, ignore Wall Street’s emphasis on quarterly earnings reports. Too many investors spend too much time looking at the short-term market outlooks and trends. #3: Diversify Sir John didn’t believe that one specific investment is always best – although over the long term, stocks do outperform. More importantly, no one can predict the future. If you’re focused too much on one company, sector or country, your portfolio is at risk. Sir John advised us to diversify by risk, industry, and country. He would say, “In stocks and bonds, as in much else, there is safety in numbers.” #4: Learn From Past Mistakes Everyone makes mistakes investing, even Sir John. As he said, “The only way to avoid mistakes is to not invest – which is the biggest mistake of all.” Instead, Templeton advised us to not become discouraged by loss and especially not to take even greater risks and try to recoup our losses all at once. He believed that the difference between successful and unsuccessful investors is that successful investors learn from their mistakes and the mistakes of others. Relatedly, you should run for the hills anytime you hear someone on CNBC say it’s a new era or that it’s different today. According to Sir John, “The investor who says, ‘This time is different,’ when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing .” #5: Don’t Be Overconfident In other words, always question your investment approach. Is it still valid? Sir John wrote, “Everything is in a constant state of change, and the wise investor recognizes that success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.” A great example of this is how much the investment climate has changed surrounding energy MLPs. Investors poured tens of billions of dollars into funds investing in the sector, only to see losses of up to 35% on some funds this year. Other Templeton Insights Of course, there are plenty more insights to be gleaned from Sir John’s vast experience. He wasn’t a fan of trading – “The stock market is not a casino” – or of index funds – “If you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else. By definition, you can’t outperform the market if you buy the market.” He also gave other common sense tips for investors, such as remembering inflation and taxes when investing, doing your homework, and always monitoring your investments. If readers wish to look at a number of Sir John’s investing tips, here’s a link: Templeton Wisdom . Keep in mind that they were written in 1993, so some of the data is very outdated. The insights, however, are timeless. Original post

Playing Offense With Defense Stocks

Increased government spending is boosting the prospects of aerospace, defense and related firms By Nick Kalivas After years of decline, 2015 saw a rebound in plans for government defense spending – a trend that shows no signs of abating. At the same time, valuations on aerospace and defense stocks are attractive relative to the broader market. With these trends in mind, I believe now might be a good time for investors to consider adding potential offense to their portfolios with defense stocks. Defense dominates the headlines in 2015 The following news stories were reported in November and December, illustrating global interest in boosting defense programs. “Japan to spend a record $41 billion on defense.” 1 “War on Islamic State brings $50 billion European defense boost.” 2 “The House and Senate Armed Services Committees … increased the fiscal 2016 spending caps for defense and nondefense activities by $25 billion each.” 3 “South Korea approves 3.6% increase in 2016 defense budget.” 4 “US said to move ahead with $1.83 billion arms sale to Taiwan.” 5 Defense orders pop in November These headlines indicate a shift from a four-year trend of declining defense orders, which appears to be bottoming even before newly expanded budgets can be deployed and reflected in government data. The US Commerce Department’s November durable goods report showed a 44% jump in defense orders from October. 6 Defense orders are highly volatile, but the six-month average is starting to climb after an extended period of weakness. Notice the upward trend in defense orders in the following chart. Unfulfilled defense orders have been declining since late 2012, which has hurt the defense industry’s performance. However, the defense order-to-shipment ratio is trending upward over the past year, which suggests that there could be a firming in industry order backlogs (unfilled orders). 6 A rising backlog could, in turn, boost confidence in defense company earnings and garner the attention of investors. In addition, computer and electronic equipment orders rose 0.4% from the previous month in November – building on October’s 2.1% gain. 6 This is relevant, as the defense industry has become more high-tech over time. In my view, technology companies with exposure to the defense industry are likely to benefit from higher defense spending and increased computer and electronic equipment orders. Civilian aerospace is still strong It’s also important to note that many defense contractors have exposure to commercial aerospace firms. Examples include Boeing (NYSE: BA ), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX ) and Honeywell (NYSE: HON ). 7 Cheap energy prices support airline industry profits and often lead to lower air fares, which can boost aircraft and aircraft maintenance demand. In its third quarter 2015 business outlook, Boeing projected higher air passenger traffic and meaningful replacement demand in its outlook for the commercial airline business. As indicated in the graphic below, unfilled aircraft orders reported by the US Commerce Department are at historically high levels – underscoring the continued strength of commercial aerospace. 6 Source: Bloomberg L.P. as of Dec. 23, 2015 Defense and aerospace valuations are attractive Valuations for defense and aerospace firms are also compelling. As of Dec. 23, the S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense Industry Index was trading at an 8.0% discount price-earnings (P/E) ratio to the S&P 500 Index. Relative valuations were richer in the mid 1990s and mid-2000s, but have come down since early 2014. 6 Source: Bloomberg L.P. as of Dec. 28, 2015 A potential alternative for investors interested in defense and aerospace Investors looking for access to the aerospace and defense sector might consider the PowerShares Aerospace & Defense Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PPA ). PPA holds a mixture of traditional aerospace and defense companies, as well as information technology and materials companies that are involved in the defense industry. Sources: 1 RT.com, Dec. 22, 2015 2 Bloomberg L.P., Nov. 24, 2015 3 Bloomberg L.P., Nov. 4, 2015 4 Bloomberg L.P., Dec. 3, 2015 5 Bloomberg L.P., Dec. 15, 2015 6 Bloomberg L.P., Dec. 23, 2015 7 As of Dec. 31, 2015, Boeing, UTX and Honeywell make up 6.46%, 6.40% and 6.35% of PPA’s holdings, respectively. Important information The S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense Index is a capitalization-weighted index designed to capture a composite return of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index that are operating in the aerospace and defense industry, according to the Global Industry Classification Standard. An investment cannot be made in an index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Price-earnings (P/E) ratio, also called multiple, measures a stock’s valuation by dividing its share price by its earnings per share. There are risks involved with investing in ETFs, including possible loss of money. Shares are not actively managed and are subject to risks similar to those of stocks, including those regarding short selling and margin maintenance requirements. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply. The Fund’s return may not match the return of the Underlying Index. The Fund is subject to certain other risks. Please see the current prospectus for more information regarding the risk associated with an investment in the Fund. Investments focused in a particular industry, such as aerospace and defense, are subject to greater risk, and are more greatly impacted by market volatility, than more diversified investments. Stocks of small and mid-sized companies tend to be more vulnerable to adverse developments, may be more volatile, and may be illiquid or restricted as to resale. The Fund is non-diversified and may experience greater volatility than a more diversified investment. Before investing, investors should carefully read the prospectus/summary prospectus and carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and more complete information about the Funds call 800 983 0903 or visit invescopowershares.com for prospectus/summary prospectus. The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation of the suitability of any investment strategy for a particular investor. Invesco does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state tax laws are complex and constantly changing. Investors should always consult their own legal or tax professional for information concerning their individual situation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals. NOT FDIC INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE NO BANK GUARANTEE All data provided by Invesco unless otherwise noted. Invesco Distributors, Inc. is the US distributor for Invesco Ltd.’s retail products and collective trust funds. Invesco Advisers, Inc. and other affiliated investment advisers mentioned provide investment advisory services and do not sell securities. Invesco Unit Investment Trusts are distributed by the sponsor, Invesco Capital Markets, Inc., and broker-dealers including Invesco Distributors, Inc. PowerShares® is a registered trademark of Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC (Invesco PowerShares). Each entity is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Invesco Ltd. ©2015 Invesco Ltd. All rights reserved.

Portfolio Rebalancing – A Potentially Golden Opportunity

For a variety of reasons, gold is a widely-held asset class within investment portfolios. Many investors include gold in their asset allocation mix for its perceived ability to act as both a diversifier and as a potential store of value in times of uncertainty; these perceptions contribute to the concept of gold as a “core holding” in many diversified portfolios. Indeed, with the notable exception of Warren Buffett , 1 some of the investment community’s most distinguished names currently maintain investments in gold. 2 Like any investment, gold is subject to rebalancing or reallocation when its value relative to other portfolio components shifts significantly. Examining quarterly data from the beginning of 1976 (the year that gold started trading freely in the United States) through the quarter ended December 31, 2015, suggests that gold is overvalued relative to historical price relationships with the major agricultural crops of corn, wheat, soybeans and sugar. 3 In fact, at quarter-end December 31, 2015, the gold/corn ratio, defined herein as the number of bushels of corn an investor could buy with the proceeds from selling one troy ounce of gold, was 296 bushels versus a 39-year average value of 169 bushels. Gold investors attempting to maximize portfolio performance through disciplined quarterly or annual rebalancing may want to consider adjusting their gold holdings in tandem with their existing or anticipated agricultural sector portfolio investment mix. For example, the historical data for the gold/corn ratio suggests that a mean reversion 4 from December 31, 2015, levels of 296 bushels to the 39-year mean value of approximately 169 bushels of corn for each ounce of gold (bu/oz) could benefit an investor rebalancing gold for corn within their portfolio. Click to enlarge As illustrated in the chart above, at 296 bu/oz, the gold/corn ratio is approximately 75% above its nearly four decade average of 169 bu/oz. Hypothetically, if an investor sold gold and purchased corn at the current 296 bu/oz level, and the ratio subsequently retraced to its historical mean value of approximately 169 bu/oz, the investor would then be able to sell the corn and buy back 75% more gold than was originally sold to make the temporary reallocation from gold into corn. While the gold/corn ratio was historically above its 39-year mean at the end of Q4 2015, other major agricultural crops were also very near all-time historic highs for the same time period. Charts for the gold/wheat, gold/soybean, and gold/sugar ratios are shown below. The gold/wheat ratio was 80% above its 39-year mean value, the gold/soybean ratio was 77% above, and the gold/sugar ratio was nearly 47% above its historical 39-year mean average value. Click to enlarge Click to enlarge Click to enlarge The current availability of both futures contracts and futures-based exchange traded products for gold, corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar makes rebalancing the gold and agricultural components within a portfolio easier than ever before. Investors and advisors need to make an assessment of the relative value of gold versus their other portfolio constituents, including agriculture, and appropriately adjust their allocations to suit their individual investment needs and objectives. 1 ” Why Warren Buffett Hates Gold .” NASDAQ 15 Aug. 2013: Web. October 9th, 2014. 2 Based on the 13-F filings for holders of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: GLD ) as of 12/31/15, and found using Bloomberg Professional, January 4th, 2016. 3 Analysis & corresponding charts were prepared by Teucrium Trading, LLC, using Bloomberg Professional, January 4th, 2016. All supporting detail available upon request 4 Mean Reversion : A theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average. This mean or average can be the historical average of the price or return or another relevant average such as the growth in the economy or the average return of an industry. Additional disclosure: I have held in the near past, and may purchase in the near future, shares of DGZ as a proxy for short gold against my long agricultural holdings of corn, wheat, soybeans and sugar.