Tag Archives: consumer

Valuation Dashboard: Consumer Discretionary Sector

Summary 4 key fundamental factors are reported across industries in the Consumer Discretionary sector. They give valuation status of an industry relative to its historical average. They give a reference for picking stocks in each industry. This is part of a monthly series of articles giving a valuation dashboard in sectors and industries. The idea is to follow up a certain number of fundamental factors for every sector, to compare them to historical averages. This article covers Consumer Discretionary. The choice of the fundamental ratios used in this study has been justified here and here . You can find in this article numbers that may be useful in a top-down approach. There is no analysis of individual stocks. You can refine your research reading articles by industry experts here . A link to a list of stocks to consider is provided in the conclusion. Methodology Four industry factors calculated by portfolio123 are extracted from the database: Price/Earnings (P/E), Price to sales (P/S), Price to free cash flow (P/FCF), Return on Equity (ROE). They are compared with their own historical averages “Avg”. The difference is measured in percentage for valuation ratios and in absolute for ROE, and named “D-xxx” if xxx is the factor’s name (for example D-P/E for price/earnings). The industry factors are proprietary data from the platform. The calculation aims at eliminating extreme values and size biases, which is necessary when going out of a large cap universe. These factors are not representative of capital-weighted indices. They are useful as reference values for picking stocks in an industry, not for ETF investors. Industry valuation table on 11/26/2015 The next table reports the 4 industry factors. For each factor, the next “Avg” column gives its average between January 1999 and October 2015, taken as an arbitrary reference of fair valuation. The next “D-xxx” column is the difference as explained above. So there are 3 columns for each ratio.   P/E Avg D- P/E P/S Avg D- P/S P/FCF Avg D- P/FCF ROE Avg D-ROE Auto Components 15.13 15.33 1.30% 0.83 0.62 -33.87% 33.88 21.23 -59.59% 10.79 3.9 6.89 Automobiles 17.6 17.67 0.40% 1.19 1.06 -12.26% 16.17 21.97 26.40% 10.79 0.21 10.58 Household Durables 17.52 15.46 -13.32% 0.85 0.59 -44.07% 30.1 16.33 -84.32% 9.74 5.3 4.44 Leisure Equip.&Products 22.9 17.82 -28.51% 1.19 0.84 -41.67% 30.76 22.05 -39.50% 9.14 2.63 6.51 Textile,Apparel,Luxury 17.93 16.34 -9.73% 1.02 0.71 -43.66% 27.03 17.23 -56.88% 11.81 7 4.81 Hotels, Restaurants, Leisure 27.67 21.67 -27.69% 1.38 1.04 -32.69% 26.98 24.18 -11.58% 9.24 4.51 4.73 Div. Consumer Services* 27.49 21.49 -27.92% 1.37 1.4 2.14% 17.28 18.64 7.30% 0.36 11.35 -10.99 Media 21.27 23.31 8.75% 1.61 1.55 -3.87% 24.79 19.9 -24.57% 3.43 -3.45 6.88 Distributors 20.07 14.32 -40.15% 1.05 0.48 -118.75% 37.45 16.28 -130.04% 10.21 3.18 7.03 Internet&Catalog Retail 39.1 37.37 -4.63% 1.38 1.8 23.33% 38.36 32.11 -19.46% 5.83 -14.7 20.53 Multiline Retail 20.32 19.41 -4.69% 0.5 0.48 -4.17% 25.87 26.81 3.51% 7.04 10.44 -3.4 Specialty Retail 18.69 17.95 -4.12% 0.58 0.56 -3.57% 24.34 21.87 -11.29% 11.69 9.85 1.84 *Averages since 2005 Valuation The following charts give an idea of the current status of industries relative to their historical average. In all cases, the higher the better. Price/Earnings: Price/Sales: Price/Free Cash Flow: Quality (ROE) Relative Momentum The next chart compares the price action of the SPDR Select Sector ETF ( XLY ) with SPY (chart from freestockcharts.com). (click to enlarge) Conclusion The Consumer Discretionary sector has outperformed the broad market by more than 4% in the last 3 months. It hit a new all-time high this week. The 5 most prominent S&P 500 consumer discretionary stocks in the recent rally are Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ), Cablevision Systems (NYSE: CVC ), General Motors (NYSE: GM ), Nike (NYSE: NKE ), Viacom (NASDAQ: VIAB ). AMZN and NKE have hit an all-time high this week. Car and motorcycle manufacturers (Automobiles) look the most attractive industry in the sector: it is fairly priced in P/E, under-priced in P/FCF, and ROE is above the historical average. The industries with an improvement in valuation factors since last month are Auto Components, Household Durables, Leisure equipment and products, Hotels and Restaurants, Specialty Retail. However, there may be quality stocks at a reasonable price in any industry. To check them out, you can compare individual fundamental factors to the industry factors provided in the table. As an example, a list of stocks in Consumer Discretionary beating their industry factors is provided on this page . If you want to stay informed of my updates on this topic and other articles, click the “Follow” tab at the top of this article.

Health Of Eurozone Recovers: ETFs To Watch

The eurozone is showing signs of a speedy recovery, as evident from the four and a half year high expansion in its business activity for the month of November. According to a flash estimate by data firm Markit, the eurozone purchasing managers’ index inched up to 54.4 this month from 53.9 in October . This surpassed the threshold score of 50, which hints at an expansion in activity. The growth profile has weakened in recent times in the eurozone, failing rounds of monetary easing. The bloc recorded 0.3% growth in Q3, declining from a 0.4% rise in Q2 and falling short of market expectation. The growth rate in Q3 was the softest in a year as development cooled down in the eurozone’s heavyweights Germany and Italy. In such a backdrop, the news of fast-expanding business activity spread optimism among investors. New business growth was noticed in both service and manufacturing sectors. Germany turned up a super performer as companies experienced “their strongest monthly gains in new business orders for two years”. The boost has come at an opportune moment, when the ECB is mulling over further easing in policies to boost inflation and economic growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) president, Mario Draghi, reassured of a more intensified and protracted QE measure, if need be. He reaffirmed the evaluation of the monetary policy by the end of this year based on a volley of economic data. However, the latest upbeat data raises confusion over the ECB’s potential altruism in the December meeting, forcing some to believe that further easing may not be as generous as thought previously. But a stubbornly low inflation profile, thanks to the commodity market rout, gives all reasons to expect further monetary easing from the ECB. Overall, the chief economist at Markit indicated that the eurozone was “on course for one of its best quarterly performances over the past four and a half years.” Based on this data, he expects the euro bloc to post 0.4% economic growth in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile, Greece received a bailout loan from the euro area member states as the former agreed to enact the stated austerity measures. ETFs to Watch Below, we highlight three European ETFs that could be tapped to play the latest uptick in business sentiments. To do this, we land up on currency-hedged ETFs, as this is the most-watched investing technique currently, thanks to opposing monetary policies in the U.S. and the eurozone. While the greenback is strengthening on a looming rate hike in the U.S., the euro is sliding on accommodative policies by the ECB (read: Guide to Currency Hedging ETFs ). WisdomTree Germany Hedged Equity ETF (NASDAQ: DXGE ) Since Germany was the main driver of the latest surge in business activity, German ETFs warrant a look. This German ETF holds 75 securities in its basket. It has a slight tilt toward the consumer discretionary sector, with 21.7% share, followed by double-digit exposure each in financials, industrials, materials and healthcare. It has managed assets worth $286 million, and trades in good volume of 165,000 shares a day, on average. The fund charges 48 bps in annual fees, and is up 9.6% so far this year (as of November 23, 2015). DXGE has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 with a Medium risk outlook. WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: HEDJ ) This fund can be viewed as a replica of the broad-based European growth. The fund appears rich, with AUM of nearly $21.3 billion. Its expense ratio comes in at 0.58%. Holding 130 securities in its basket, the product is pretty well spread out across components, with no firm making up for more than 6.19% of its assets. Consumer staples, industrial, consumer discretionary, financials and healthcare each have double-digit weight in the fund. In terms of country allocations, Germany and France are leading with 26.1% and 24.2% share, respectively, followed by the Netherlands (17.2%) and Spain (16.5%). The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) fund is up 11.2% so far this year (as of November 23, 2015). WisdomTree Europe Hedged SmallCap Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: EUSC ) Since small-caps companies tend to pick up more when an economy improves, a look at the small-cap European companies seems justified. The fund provides exposure to close to 237 of the smallest European companies. This ETF has amassed about $245.7 million. The product is highly diversified, with no stock accounting for more than 2.06% of the portfolio. Sector-wise, industrials get the maximum exposure, at 25.9% of the portfolio. Financials and consumer discretionary also get double-digit allocation each, while energy gets the least exposure, at only 2.35% of the basket. As far as country exposure is concerned, Italy (21.1%), Germany (17.2%), France (16.4%) and Finland (13.1%) get top priority. The fund charges 58 bps in fees, and is up about 1.6% so far this year. Original Post

11 Most Popular Currency-Hedged ETFs

Currency hedging strategies have been in vogue since the start of this year given the ultra-loose monetary policy across the globe in stark contrast to the U.S. Fed policy of tightening its stimulus program. The popularity saw a rise last month when the Fed hinted at a modest hike in interest rates in December. The diverging policies have been pushing the U.S. dollar higher and other currencies lower. While monetary easing is making international investment a compelling opportunity in the U.S., a strong dollar could wipe out gains when repatriated in U.S. dollar terms, pushing international investment into the red even when international stocks performed well. As a result, investors flocked to currency-hedged ETFs to tap bullish international fundamentals, dodging the effects of a strong greenback. This is especially true as the currency-hedged funds look to strip out currency exposure to a foreign economy via the use of currency forwards or other instruments that bet against the non-dollar currency, while at the same time, offering exposure to foreign stocks. Given this, we have highlighted 11 currency-hedged ETFs for investors that are extremely popular in the market: WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: HEDJ ) The ETF tracks the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Index holding 129 securities with moderate concentration on the top 10 holdings at 25.5%. It is pretty well spread across a number of sectors, with consumer staples, industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare and financials taking double-digit exposure each. Among countries, Germany (25.9%), France (24.3%), the Netherlands (17.2%) and Spain (16.4%) dominate the holdings list. The fund has AUM of $21.3 billion, and sees an average daily volume of about 4.9 million shares. It charges 58 bps in annual fees and gained 13.5% in the year-to-date time frame. The product has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or a “Hold” rating with a Medium risk outlook. WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DXJ ) With AUM of $17.1 billion, this ETF targets the Japanese equity stock market without the currency risk by tracking the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Index. Holding 314 stocks in its basket, the product is moderately concentrated across securities, with none holding more than 4.84% share. Consumer discretionary and industrials take the top two spots with 24.6% and 23.2% share, respectively, while information technology and financials round off the top four. The fund trades in solid volume of more than 6 million shares per day, and charges 48 bps in annual fees. It has risen nearly 14% so far this year, and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or a “Buy” rating with a Medium risk outlook. Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBEF ) This fund targets the developed international stock market with no currency risk, and tracks the MSCI EAFE US Dollar Hedged Index. In total, the product holds 920 securities in its basket, with none holding more than 1.95% share, and charges 35 bps in fees. It is skewed toward the financials sector, which makes up one-fourth of the portfolio, while consumer discretionary, industrials, consumer staples and healthcare round off the top five with double-digit exposure each. Among countries, Japan takes the top spot at 23%, closely followed by United Kingdom (17%), France (10%) and Switzerland (10%). With an asset base of around $13.9 billion and average daily volume of about 4 million shares, the fund has gained 7.5% so far this year and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 with a Medium risk outlook. Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Europe Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBEU ) This product is the second popular European play that follows the MSCI Europe US Dollar Hedged Index. It holds 445 securities in its basket, which are widely spread out across components, with each holding less than 3% of assets. United Kingdom takes the top spot at 27%, while France, Switzerland and Germany round off the next three spots. From a sector look, financials accounts for the largest share at 22.5%, closely followed by consumer staples (14.9%) and healthcare (13.7%). The fund has amassed $3.8 billion in its asset base and trades in solid volume of more than 1.3 million shares a day. It charges 45 bps in fees per year, and has returned about 8% so far this year. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 with a Medium risk outlook. iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEARCA: HEFA ) This fund provides a broad foreign market play without currency risks. It focuses on the EAFE region – Europe, Australasia, Far East – for exposure, and follows the MSCI EAFE 100% Hedged to USD index. It is basically a holding of the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEARCA: EFA ) with currency hedge tacked on. Financials dominates the fund’s return with one-fourth share, while consumer discretionary, industrials, consumer staples and healthcare also get double-digit allocation each. Top nations include Japan and United Kingdom, with double-digit exposure, while France, Switzerland and Germany round out the top five. The fund has AUM of $3.1 billion and average daily volume of roughly 1.4 million shares. It charges 35 bps in annual fees and has gained about 8% in the year-to-date time frame. HEFA has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 with a Medium risk outlook. iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEARCA: HEZU ) This ETF is appropriate for investors looking invest in euro zone stocks. It follows the MSCI EMU 100% USD Hedged Index, and is a play on the popular unhedged fund iShares MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEARCA: EZU ) with a hedge to strip out the euro currency exposure. The fund holds 245 well-diversified securities in its basket, dominated by financials at 22.4% and followed by consumer discretionary (13.9%), industrials (12.7%) and consumer staples (11.1%). The ETF has amassed $1.9 billion in its asset base, and trades in solid volumes of more than 1.3 million shares a day. The fund charges 50 bps in annual fees from investors and has delivered impressive returns of nearly 14% so far this year. It has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 with a Medium risk outlook. Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBJP ) This product tracks the MSCI Japan US Dollar Hedged Index, which provides exposure to the Japanese equity markets and hedges the Japanese yen to the U.S. dollar by selling Japanese yen forwards. The fund holds 319 securities in its basket, with the largest allocation going to Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM ), while other firms make up less than 3% of its assets. From a sector look, the ETF is well diversified, with consumer discretionary, financials, industrials and information technology accounting for double-digit allocation each. The fund has AUM of $1.9 billion and average daily volume of around 487,000 shares. Its expense ratio came in at 0.45%. The product is up about 14.8% so far this year, and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 with a Medium risk outlook. iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Germany ETF (NYSEARCA: HEWG ) This ETF targets the German equity market without the currency risk. It follows the MSCI Germany 100% Hedged to USD Index, and is basically a holding of the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (NYSEARCA: EWG ) with currency hedge tacked on. Consumer discretionary, financials, healthcare, materials and industrials are the top five sectors of the fund. The fund has accumulated $1.5 billion in AUM and charges 53 bps in annual fees. Volume is good, as it exchanges more than 1.2 million shares, on average, on a daily basis. It has added 11% this year, and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 with a Medium risk outlook. iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: HEWJ ) This is another currency-hedged option to play Japanese equity, and is a hedged version of the popular iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: EWJ ). Holding 320 stocks in its basket, consumer discretionary takes the top spot at 21.3%, closely followed by financials and industrials. The ETF has AUM of $712 million and sees volume of more than 593,000 shares a day. The expense ratio came in at 0.48%. The fund has gained 14.5% so far in the year and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 with a Medium risk outlook. WisdomTree International Hedged Quality Dividend Growth ETF (NYSEARCA: IHDG ) This product provides exposure to the dividend-paying companies with growth characteristics in the developed world ex U.S. and Canada and hedge exposure to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and foreign currencies. This can be easily done by tracking the WisdomTree International Hedged Quality Dividend Growth Index. In total, the fund holds 213 stocks in the basket, with consumer staples and consumer discretionary as the top two sectors. In terms of country profile, United Kingdom takes the top spot at 20.2%, while Japan and Switzerland round off the next two spots with 13.3% and 10.2% share, respectively. WisdomTree Germany Hedged Equity ETF (NASDAQ: DXGE ) This German ETF follows the WisdomTree Germany Hedged Equity Index, holding 75 securities in its basket. It has a slight tilt toward the consumer discretionary sector with 21.6% share, followed by double-digit exposures in financials, industrials, materials and healthcare. It has managed assets worth $305.4 million and trades in good volume of 202,000 shares a day, on average. The fund charges 48 bps in annual fees, and is up 11.4% so far this year. DXGE has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 with a Medium risk outlook. Original Post