Tag Archives: cmcsa

Comcast’s NBCU Turns Up Heat On Dish Amid YES Network Dispute

Comcast ( CMCSA )-owned NBCUniversal is turning up the heat on satellite TV broadcaster Dish Network ( DISH ) amid contract renewal talks for programming. Dish Network already is facing tough negotiations with Viacom ( VIA ). Comcast, on the other side as a pay-TV provider, has been in a dispute with sports channel YES Network over programming fees. NBCU has launched a marketing campaign warning viewers they could be blacked out on Dish Network by March 20, says Broadcasting & Cable . NBCU owns cable channels USA Network, Syfy, Bravo, CNBC and  MSNBC. Dish on Tuesday afternoon said it expects to file for arbitration in the dispute with NBCU. “Under the conditions imposed by the FCC and Department of Justice in approving the Comcast-NBCUniversal merger, NBC is forbidden from blacking out its networks if a pay-TV provider chooses, in its sole discretion, to exercise its right for binding arbitration,” Dish said in a statement. Viacom’s 24 cable networks, meanwhile, include MTV, Nickelodeon and Comedy Central. Dish Network has had disputes with CBS ( CBS ), 21st Century Fox ( FOXA ) and Time Warner’ s ( TWX ) Turner Broadcasting unit. Comcast is at an impasse with YES Network. Fox took majority control of the YES Network in 2014 from the New York Yankees’ parent company. The Comcast-YES Network dispute affects about 900,000 Comcast customers in New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. According to an Oppenheimer research report, Fox Networks sought a 33% fee increase for YES programming. Walt Disney ’s ( DIS ) ESPN garners the highest content fees. “We believe programming costs will rise sharply in the near term  but will moderate in the longer term as lower advertising revenues and cord cutting weaken the bargaining power of the content providers and ultimately break the paid-TV model,” wrote Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan. “Programming costs have risen at three times the growth rate of (cable company) revenues during the last five years.”

AT&T, Verizon Stock Rally: How TV Auction Could Impact Trading

Shares of  AT&T ( T ) and Verizon Communications ( VZ ) have rallied in 2016, owing to falling interest rates and their relative safety amid the stock market tumult. One factor sure to impact trading for both companies the rest of the year is the government’s auction of airwaves now owned by local TV broadcasters, set to start this month. Shares of the high-dividend-paying AT&T and Verizon are up 13% and 11% so far in 2016, respectively. But higher-than-expected auction spending would hit free cash flow and possibly credit ratings. Many analysts continue to downplay potential spending by wireless phone companies and others, but Citigroup estimates bids could reach $43 billion, in the neighborhood of 2015’s “AWS-3” auction. A Bloomberg survey , meanwhile, estimates the auction will raise only $33 billion, much less than the $60 billion figure floated by some observers in mid-2015. The Federal Communications Commission plans to begin the “Broadcast Incentive Auction” on March 29. The auction, which could last five to six months, will free up an estimated 60 to 80 megahertz of prime, low-frequency radio spectrum for wireless services. Both AT&T and Verizon have talked down their interest in the TV broadcast airwaves, and both have alternatives for spectrum, as IBD reported. T-Mobile US ( TMUS ) has stated it could spend up to $10 billion, while cable TV firm Comcast ( CMCSA ) has filed to be a bidder. There’s fresh speculation Japan-based SoftBank ( SFTBY ), Sprint’s majority owner, could bid, though Sprint ( S ) itself has bowed out. Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL ) Google also recently ruled itself out. Analyst estimates proved far too low for the AWS-3 auction, which ended in January 2015. Most analysts pegged AWS-3 auction spending in the mid-teens of billions of dollars, with the highest estimates around $20 billion. The auction, however, raised more than $41 billion — minus $3 billion in airwaves Dish Network ( DISH ) later surrendered. During that auction, wild rumors about Verizon’s purported spending pressured its stock at points, while AT&T eventually emerged as the top AWS-3 bidder. In the TV broadcast auction, JP Morgan estimates that bidders could spend anywhere from $25 billion to $35 billion. Cowen & Co. estimates AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile will spend $27.5 billion combined. Comcast and private equity firms loom as wild cards. Several analysts have estimated Comcast’s spending at $5 billion-$6 billion. For the complex, two-part auction to succeed, bidding prices have to reach levels high enough that TV broadcasters follow through and sell the spectrum. If the auction doesn’t proceed as planned, it would be a blow for spectrum-needy T-Mobile, analysts say. Low-frequency airwaves travel over long distances and through walls, improving in-building services. AT&T and Verizon own more than 70% of low-frequency airwaves in the top 100 U.S. markets. FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler, whose legacy will be tied in part to whether the auction succeeds, has downplayed pre-auction comments by AT&T and Verizon, saying it’s normal for bidders to lower expectations.

AT&T, Comcast Election Watch: Trump To Favor National Champions?

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump could favor large-scale telecom M&A to build national champions, while Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton would likely nominate a new FCC chairman with views similar to current FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler, who promotes competition. So says RBC Capital in an outlook report on the presidential election. Republican primaries in five states on Tuesday, including Florida and Ohio, are critical for Trump, who leads in delegates vs. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. On the Democratic side, Clinton has been unable to put away Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Under Wheeler, the Federal Communications Commission thwarted Comcast ’s ( CMCSA ) acquisition of Time Warner Cable ( TWC ), and snuffed out merger talks between Sprint ( S ) and T-Mobile US ( TMUS ). The FCC, though, did allow  AT&T ( T ) to buy DirecTV Group. Many of Wheeler’s regulatory policy changes, meanwhile, have targeted Internet service providers, such as Comcast, AT&T and Verizon Communications ( VZ ). Jonathan Atkin, an RBC Capital analyst, says that based on his research, Trump is a telecom wild card. “Trump, on this topic, is considerably less predictable and could be an advocate of large national champions to enhance competitiveness vs. foreign countries, and hence, in certain cases, more accepting of consolidation,” Atkin said in the research report. “Cruz’s, Rubio’s or Kasich’s stance on antitrust could likely be similar to those of Bush or Reagan,” Atkin added. “This does not mean that every merger would be supported, but it would be 10%-20% easier to get horizontal deals done under a Republican vs. Democratic administration, in the view of one regulatory contact,” Atkin wrote. In a new Democratic administration, Atkin speculates that Comcast could buy a wireless company but probably not more cable TV assets. Within the telecom industry, there’s a perception Wheeler has favored Silicon Valley and Internet companies such as Apple ( AAPL ), Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL ) Google and Facebook ( FB ) ( IBD ) vs. Internet service providers. Broadband service providers are currently challenging Wheeler’s “net neutrality” rules in federal court. Atkin’s view is that Sanders’ election would be the worst outcome for the telecom companies. “Clinton could end up bringing in as FCC chair someone who is similarly aligned as Mr. Wheeler,” Atkin said. “Sanders could select as FCC chair someone who is even possibly more consumer-oriented than the current chair, and may possibly attempt to rate regulate broadband.”