Tag Archives: chinese

Will The Casino ETF Finally Hit Jackpot?

The casino gaming industry has seen much suffering over the last one year. Normally, large casinos hail from two cities – Las Vegas and Macau. While Las Vegas was a laggard a few years back on recession in the U.S. and Macau was a star performer, the story changed totally in a few quarters on hard landing fears in China. For more than a year now, Macau has been a pain for the casino operators as this Chinese region is the operating Mecca of leading casino operators like Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN ), MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM ) and Las Vegas Sands Corp (NYSE: LVS ). Notably, Macau is one of the largest casino gaming destinations in the world. Credit crunch issues in mainland China, check on illegal money transfers especially in VIP gaming and a broad-based slowdown in China are responsible for the latest drop-off in the casino industry. Though Las Vegas is gaining ground on an improving U.S. economy, a protracted upheaval in Macau hit hard the casino stocks and the related ETF. For the first eight months of 2015, gross gaming revenues declined 36.5% in the region. In August itself, revenues were off 35.5%. Turnaround Round the Corner? Though the decline in August was the fifteenth successive monthly decline and the twelfth consecutive double-digit decline, gaming kicked off on a slightly positive note in September. As per barrons.com , average daily table revenue in Macau’s casinos was 605 million Hong Kong dollars in the first six days of September. The weekly figure bettered the average August revenue of HK$550 million. Moreover, investors should note that though August appeared downbeat, mass market gaming showed improvement. Thanks to the crackdown on the VIP segment, most casino operators focused on the mass market segment, reduced minimum bets and shifted more tables from VIP to the mass market division. To add to this, to save the sector, the government is resorting to several measures. Per the recent media reports, the government would reportedly allow smoking in Macau casinos under certain conditions. Meanwhile, per a new norm implemented by the government from Jul 1, mainland China passport holders transiting through Macau can stay there for two more days and could gain entry into the city within 30 days instead of 60 days previously. So, the easing of tourist restrictions in Macau and the possibility of relaxation in bans on gaming-floor smoking rooms will rev up Macau casino revenues. Casino ETF: Buy on the Cheap? The outright negative mood so far weighed on the casino gaming ETF the Market Vectors Gaming ETF (NYSEARCA: BJK ) which is down about 17% so far this year (as of September 9, 2015). The fund lost about 30% in the last one-year and two-year frames, while the fund added over 1.5% in the last five days (as of September 9, 2015). Moreover, investors should note that casino stocks are extremely cheap in valuation after undergoing a steep sell-off. All these paint a brighter outlook for the casino ETF in the days to come. Granted, there is no short of economic bottlenecks yet slightly positive Macau vibes are in the air now. So those who are looking for a beaten-down space which might turn around in the coming days can try out their luck with BJK. BJK in Focus The fund looks to track the Market Vectors Global Gaming Index and provides investors a direct exposure to the casino gaming market. The product has so far been overlooked by investors as is evident from its paltry volume of about 30,000 shares daily. The fund has so far attracted $25.3 million in assets, invested in 45 holdings. The product is expensive as it charges 65 bps in fees per year which is on the higher end of the expense ratios of the consumer discretionary ETFs. The fund has now slid into an oversold territory as indicated by its relative strength index of 38.23 times. The fund currently has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy) with a High risk outlook. Link to the original post on Zacks.com

The Crash Of China Is A Myth

Summary “Crash” of China’s economy is a U.S. headline manufactured myth. What I didn’t see in China this week. China A Share market is still up 35% in past year vs. a decline for S&P 500. Major Emerging Markets ETFs (EEM, IEMG, VWO) are dominated by State Owned Enterprises from the legacy managed economy and part and parcel to failed efforts to manage the stock market. Now is the time to think of buying BABA, BIDU, JD, WUBA, YY and other Ecommerce companies that may be best way to invest in the future of consumption. Before reading please know that I am conflicted. I am the founder of EMQQ The Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce Index, which has been licensed as the basis for an ETF (NYSE: EMQQ ). I also have an economic interest in several other China ETFs including NYSE listed YAO, HAO, TAO CQQQ. My Recent Trip to China Tuesday I returned to San Francisco after spending eight days in the Chinese cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou and Nanjing. From the headlines in US newspapers prior to my departure, I might have expected to find a country in turmoil and crisis. Indeed this expectation was reinforced in the week prior to my trip as no less than five “non-investment” people – including my mother – asked me about the “crash” of China. The sensational media coverage seemed to reach a peak the day before my departure as the Wall Street Journal reported that President Xi himself had “botched” the stock market and a CNBC reporter made the quite extraordinary claim that Premier Li Keqiang may “lose his job” because of the stock market declines. Was it possible that the 30 year secular trend of growth in China had reversed since I last visited in April? Here is what I saw: · Shanghai. The city was as frenetic as ever. Tens of thousands crowded the Bund, perhaps hundreds of thousands packed the shopping street Nanjing Road. Restaurants were packed. No signs of a crisis. · Hangzhou. Scenic West Lake, a top tourist attraction in Jiangsu province, welcomed throngs of tourists. Tour buses packed with tourists from around the country clogged the roads and parking lots around the lake. Families strolled the shores, young people took picturesque selfies to post on WeChat. No signs of turmoil. · Nanjing. The city wall and Xuan Wu Gate were also packed with families and tour groups. The constant thumping of construction equipment could be heard in the background constantly as the city continues the work of adding lines to the metro system that serves its 8 million inhabitants. No signs of a collapse. My last day in China I had breakfast with a Shanghai-based Partner at of one of the world’s leading consulting firms. This person has lived in China for 30 years and knows more about the Chinese economy, its businesses and its people than nearly any other expert you can find. While he acknowledged that China continues to struggle with its transitions from a state dominated economy to a private sector economy and from an economy based on manufacturing to an economy based on consumption, his comments reinforced my belief that the “crisis” that populates the headlines of U.S. media is a mirage. It’s not real, it’s not there. The Chinese economy is slowing, but this is not news. The slowing of China’s GDP growth rate has been a fact of life since I first became immersed in China 10 years ago. It’s part of China Economics 101 and is simply the law of large numbers. China will continue to “slow” for the foreseeable future but will still likely grow at a pace 2-3 times that of the developed world for years. Furthermore, should it be required, the Chinese Government has significant tools and resources at its disposal to combat weakness in the “real economy”. The China Stock Market Correction To be sure, China’s stock markets have had a very volatile and negative 12 weeks. The Chinese domestic A Share stock market has undergone a significant correction at best and “crash” at worst. The awkward and clumsy market intervention by the Chinese government was, for good reason, widely criticized and seen as a step backwards in China liberalizing their markets and economy. However, such interventions are not unique to China. In fact, U.S. markets – and many ETFs in particular – were whipsawed only two weeks ago, as regulations and trading curbs instituted by our government in response to the 2010 “flash crash” went awry leaving many ETFs trading at significant discounts to their Net Asset Values (NAVs). And let’s not forget, the China A share market remains up over 30% in the past 12 months vs. a loss for the S&P 500. Even those with a short rear view mirror should see that while the drop was dramatic, it was preceded by a similarly dramatic speculative bubble and is still in positive territory over past year. And let us also acknowledge that there were parties in China warning against the type of speculation that resulted in the spectacular fall. Indeed, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) warned investors in December of 2014 that they should “invest rationally, respect the market, fear the market, and bear in mind the risks present.” Buy Fear Most of my friends and colleagues know that while I am active in the ETF marketplace, I am a Warren Buffett groupie at heart. I “pray towards Omaha”. One of my favorite Buffett lines is that “you pay a high price for a cheery consensus”. The opposite of that is that you get your best buys when there is “blood in the streets”. Buy Fear. Sell Greed. Corny yes, but true. By all accounts China “fear” has never been higher with western investors. Buy What? One of the major problems with investing in China and Emerging Markets is that the major indexes and the ETFs that track them are dominated by state owned, legacy, inefficient and often corrupt companies. And it’s not just China that has this problem. Anyone that has followed the PetroBras disaster in Brazil should understand why these companies should be avoided. Yet, a full 30% of the largest Emerging Markets ETFs (VWO &EEM) are invested in State Owned Enterprises (“SOEs”). Many of the Chinese SOEs were part and parcel of the “botched” efforts to prop of the market and instructed to buy their shares or those of other SOEs. Investors seeking to take advantage of the fear that permeates the China investment landscape should look for the parts of the equity markets that will benefit from the long term secular increase in consumption. These sectors include traditional Consumer sectors and also the Ecommerce and Internet sectors that are benefiting both from the increase in consumption and from the spread of smartphones and mobile broadband. While the legacy manufacturing economy is slowing, retail sales posted 10% growth in the most recent quarter. The growth in the Internet and Ecommerce sector remains over 35% today and should remain high even if the broader economy in China slows further. While a year ago investors were clamoring for Alibaba (NYSE: BABA ) it has been kicked to the curb and is, as I write this, trading at near all-time lows. Other Ecommerce names haven’t fared much better as BIDU, JD, WUBA and others have all seen dramatic declines in their share prices. These are the types of companies that investors should be buying now. Unlike the stocks that dominate the indexes, these stocks trade in the U.S. and are not subject to Chinese market interventions or the erratic behavior of mainland China’s retail investors. These companies are also entrepreneurial and much more focused on shareholder returns than SOEs are. In fact, many of these companies including BABA, JD and YY have announced share repurchase programs to take advantage of the dramatic decline in share prices. This may not be the bottom. These stocks could go much lower. However, long term investors seeking exposure to Emerging Markets equities ought to consider these companies or ETFs that track these sectors. Repeat, I am conflicted. I am the founder of EMQQ The Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce Index, which has been licensed as the basis for an ETF . I also have an economic interest in several other China ETFs including NYSE listed YAO, HAO, TAO CQQQ. Disclosure: I am/we are long BABA, BIDU, WUBA, YY, JD. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

1 Unique Method To Successfully Play A Volatile Market

Summary One way to make money no matter what the stock market is doing. Choosing the right sector is the key – in my case is was specific commodities. Knowing consistent price movements over time will determine the trading spread to work within. There is no doubt we’re in a stock market environment ruled by fear, as confirmed by the extreme volatility in the movement of the various indices. Much of this was triggered by the crash of the Chinese stock market, but even before then there was a growing concern about the dizzying heights the market had shot up to without a correction. The U.S. has went through a mini correction, but many believe we need a deeper and more prolonged one to bring share prices back in line with actual values of companies Other factors given as reason for volatility are low interest rates, which have tempted companies to be more reckless in their spending; uncertainty concerning whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates; slowing Chinese economy; commodity deflation; and signs manufacturing in America is slowing. I could add many more to the list. Together what it says is investors no longer have some clarity on the future, and that has been the impetus behind the extreme volatility in the market. When visibility is down and parts of the global economy collapsing, it generates an environment of fear. And that’s where we are today. One thing we must do as investors is to ignore the endless financial news headlines about the last big plunge in the stock market, and the soon-to-follow “rebound.” That’s stock price movement that historically precedes a major correction. The day-to-day movements are irrelevant. What’s relevant is if after all the movements the direction remains level or continues on down. Trading in times of fear With future uncertainty can come investing paralysis and fear, as investors move their money to the sidelines to wait to see where things go. That’s a good strategy, but there are many others that still want to find ways to grow their capital in these volatile times. I’m going to share one strategy I’ve used to capture profits in situations similar to this. As a matter of fact, it doesn’t matter whether the stock market is going up or down with this type of trade, as it has volatility built into it either way. I’m talking about silver, although I’m simply using it as a proxy for other commodities or markets that are volatile in nature. I’m going to say that again: I’m only using silver as a proxy for a number of opportunities to make money using this method. I’ve used this with silver in the past, but know of some colleagues that are using it with other commodities right now, and in your specific expertise, there could be many other sectors or segments to do the same thing. Silver trade The first thing to do is identify a highly volatile commodity that moves in predictable patterns. The one I know the best is silver, and it’s one I made a lot of money with several years ago. I decided to go with stocks and not silver options or futures. At the time I was trading was when gold and silver were still soaring, and among the top-performing and predictable silver companies at the time was Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW ). It was highly volatile, but it still have a primary upward share price movement, which made up for the occasional timing mistake I made, which forced me to hold it a little longer than usual. Remember, it doesn’t matter whether a commodity is going up or down in price, as long as it’s operating within a trending pattern. That’s where a lot of the risk is mitigated. The other thing is there has to be discipline in not trying to get every penny out of the trade. I always sold when the share price moved within the parameters I had put in place. Once it rose within those guidelines, I didn’t get cute, I immediately pulled the trigger and sold. Did I miss some upside? All the time. But I never regretted it. I made money on trade after trade as long as I stayed within my pre-set parameters. How was the trading performance during this time? At the best I had fourteen straight trades I made money on. Under normal conditions I would make five or six trades, and then lose on one. Keep in mind I was trading with a similar amount of money, so it was like taking 5 steps forward and one step back. It could have been even better, but within my parameters I had a holding restriction, meaning if the stock didn’t perform as expected within a specific time frame, I would sell it. That protected me from losing more than what I would make on one trade. What needs to be known In my silver trading I needed to identify the overall trend direction of silver and the daily share price movement of Silver Wheaton within that trend. Everything else I ignored. When I say everything else I ignored, I mean with the exception of something that would point to a reversal in overall trend. For example, when Silver Wheaton surpassed the $40 mark, I knew it was either going to explode in growth or move up a little more, and then start to pull back. That is how it did move, with it topping off between $46 and $47 a share. I don’t believe it ever closed at that level (during the time I was trading it), but it did reach that in intra-day trading. This isn’t rocket science. Volatile markets like silver, still have patterns within them that can be observably known, and it only takes a little research on the level of the price movements of a stock within that pattern. The only tricky part in my experience was when it not only dropped per its normal volatility, but then dropped a little more than usual for some temporary reason. If I hadn’t committed to a trading time frame, I I would have simply held a little longer and waited for it to rebound, which during the trend, it literally always did. That’s how I could hit it so many times in a row. Again, it’s understanding the flow of the pattern, which can be easily identified with any day-to-day chart. What about making money on the downside? After getting some confidence with Silver Wheaton because of my success, I started thinking about a way I could make money when the price dropped. Keeping within my preferred method of stocks or an instrument that would trade like a stock, I decided to go with ProShares UltraShort Silver (NYSEARCA: ZSL ). What ProShares UltraShort Silver does at its basic level is short silver via different financial instruments. My only problem there was I only allowed myself a certain amount of money to use with this type of trading, so I had to break up the amount I spent on Silver Wheaton if I wanted to take advantage of the downward price movement of silver. It wasn’t really a problem, but it limited my upside because of my refusal to break my discipline. That’s the key to success in this type of trading: you have to stay disciplined within your predetermined parameters. Stray outside of them and you’re likely to get hammered, even if you occasionally get lucky. What has to be watched if playing silver for upside and downside, is one of them aren’t on trend, and if it suddenly moves off trend, you could be hit hard. This is another reason I always sold when it reached the level I was looking for; whether the price of silver was going up or down. This protects you from starting to believe you know what you’re doing in regard to price movements. We can know the trends and daily movements, and within a tight trading discipline, do very well. I can’t emphasize that enough. Don’t start to think you have an inside handle on a volatile segment of the market. That’s why there has to be a system in place that is religiously followed, no matter much more that could have made on a trade. Take the gains and run. Then do it over and over again. To give an idea of how one could lose on a trade if you’re not careful and disciplined, check ZSL when it was trading at just under $5,600 a share. That happened because it was going against trend because the price of silver was moving up. On December 1, 2008, it closed at $5,598. On December 15, 2008, it closed at $3,928. You can trade against trend, but that is far riskier. I had no trouble with it, but I kept a constant eye on it throughout the day. Also understand, these were trades I would usually make within an hour or two. Rarely would I hold on longer than that. This isn’t investing, where I was analyzing the company, it’s trading, where I only analyzed price movements and the trend. I was doing this to play both volatile movements. If silver was going down in price, one could play only ZSL and drop Silver Wheaton. Conclusion Unless you have a nice chunk of extra money lying around for high-risk trading, I would stay with one trend direction and first get a grasp of its consistent daily price movements. I say that because you won’t make as much playing two different trends unless you have significant capital to put into play. You’ll have to wait for your trade to clear, which could take several business days before you have access to your capital again. And if you do that on both ends of the trade, the daily price movement could be up, which if that’s the way you’re playing it, you may have to wait a day or two before it rebounds. That means if you sell on a Thursday, you may have to wait until Tuesday before you have access to your money, and then maybe an extra day or two for the price to be positioned correctly for an entry point. If you haven’t done this type of trading before, that may seem like it’s not a big deal. But when you’re used to moving in and out of the market based upon price movements, it can seem like an eternity, and you may be tempted to get in just to be in the game. Once you decide on a commodity, or possibly a volatile stock, be sure you know the macro-economic situation, the general trend of the sector, and then the consistent price movement intervals of the commodity or company. After you have a handle on that, then develop a simple system to work within, with the most important being the price spread you will buy or sell within. You could make more money without the parameters, but you could lose more too. Under this type of discipline I’ve used it to generate significant earnings time and time again. Keep in mind I’m not suggesting to trade in Silver Wheaton here. It’s only a proxy I used because I made a lot of money using this technique with silver and Silver Wheaton in the past, and it represents the type of predictable volatility needed to make money. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.