Tag Archives: china

Oil ETFs In Focus On Oil Output Freeze Talks

Oil has been the most talked-about commodity over the past one-and-a-half years, with wild swings in its prices. Last month, oil price slipped to a level not seen in more than 12 years, thanks to growing supply and falling global demand. In fact, the commodity has plunged about 70% since the summer of 2014. This is because oil production has risen worldwide with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continuing to pump at near-record levels, and higher output from the likes of U.S., Iran and Libya. Additionally, a strong U.S. dollar backed by a rate hike has made dollar-denominated assets more expensive for foreign investors and has thus dampened the appeal for oil. On the other hand, demand for oil across the globe has been falling given slower growth in most developed and developing economies. In particular, persistent weakness in the world’s biggest consumer of energy – China – will continue to weigh on the demand outlook. In order to stabilize the oil market, the biggest oil producing countries – Saudi Arabia and Russia – along with Qatar, Venezuela, UAE and Kuwait have stepped in and agreed to freeze oil output at the January level, provided the other countries join the initiative. The move is the first deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in 15 years, but might fall apart as Iran has been trying to boost production after the sanctions were lifted last month. As per the Iranian newspaper, Shargh, Iran’s OPEC envoy said that it is “illogical” for the country to join the oil output freeze deal. This is especially true as the country was producing at least 1 million barrels per day below its capacity and pre-sanction levels since 2011. Meanwhile, the other countries increased their production during the same period and are now hovering around record levels. However, Iran might be offered special terms as part of the deal according to Reuters. Even if the deal is cut and global producers freeze oil output at January levels, the world will still have about 300 million excess barrels per year than needed. Thus, it would be difficult to rebalance the oil market. However, it will undoubtedly infuse some confidence and might reduce the supply glut later in the year. Further, a renewed optimism to restore growth in China, Europe and Japan could drive oil demand in the coming months. Market Impact The potential deal initially sparked a rally in oil price on Tuesday with Brent crude rising as much as $35.55 per barrel. But the gains were pared after Iran’s prospects of joining the deal started looking dull. Notably, Brent crude is trading around $33 per barrel while U.S. crude is hovering below $30 per barrel at the time of writing. This has put oil ETFs in focus for the coming days. These ETFs might be easier plays for investors seeking to deal directly in the futures market. Below, we have highlighted a few popular oil ETFs that could be interesting plays in the coming days, given the volatile trading in oil. United States Brent Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: BNO ) This fund provides direct exposure to the spot price of Brent crude oil on a daily basis through future contracts. It has amassed $93.9 million in its asset base and trades in a good volume of roughly 206,000 shares a day. The ETF charges 75 bps in annual fees and expenses. BNO lost 1.6% in Tuesday’s trading session. United States Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: USO ) This is the most popular and liquid ETF in the oil space with AUM of over $3.1 billion and average daily volume of around 38.4 million shares. The fund seeks to match the performance of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI or U.S. crude). The ETF has 0.45% in expense ratio and lost 0.2% on the day. iPath S&P Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSEARCA: OIL ) This is an ETN option for oil investors and delivers returns through an unleveraged investment in the WTI crude oil futures contract. The product follows the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index, a subset of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index. The note has amassed $625.3 million in AUM and trades in solid volume of roughly 4.4 million shares a day. Expense ratio came in at 0.75% and the note was up 1.3% on the day. PowerShares DB Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: DBO ) This product also provides exposure to crude oil through WTI futures contracts and follows the DBIQ Optimum Yield Crude Oil Index Excess Return. The fund sees solid average daily volume of more than 830,000 shares and AUM of $419.3 million. It charges an expense ratio of 78 bps and lost 1.8% in Tuesday’s trading session. Original post

Japan ETFs To Tap On Renewed Stimulus Hopes

After logging in the biggest weekly drop of 11% in more than seven years on a rising yen, fears of a global slowdown and the sell-off in banks, the Japanese stocks bounced back strongly at the start of this week. Notably, the Nikkei 225 index jumped 7.2% in Monday’s trading session, representing the biggest daily gain since September, and extended gains of nearly 0.2% in today’s trading session. With this gain, the index has reversed the bearish trend it saw last week. Impressive two-day gains came on the back of bargain hunting and hopes for further stimulus from the central banks in Europe and Japan. In particular, renewed contraction in the Japanese economy brought back the need for more easing measures to stimulate the economy. Additionally, the yen has weakened from the highest level of ¥110.98 reached last week against the greenback that will benefit exporters and the manufacturing industry. This is because Japan is primarily an export-oriented economy, and a weaker currency makes its exports more competitive. More Stimulus in the Cards The economy contracted 1.4% year over year in the final quarter of 2016, worse than the Wall Street expectation of a 1.2% contraction. A drop in consumer spending, weak exports and lower private consumption continued to weigh on the growth of the world’s third-largest economy. The persistent slump in Japan’s biggest trading partner – China – added to the woes. The slowdown is the major setback for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his reform policy, Abenomics, which is aimed at pulling the country out of deflationary pressure and putting it back on the growth trajectory. Sluggish growth has raised speculation over additional fiscal stimulus by the central bank. Earlier this month, Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopted measures similar to the European Central Bank (ECB) by pushing interest rates to the negative territory. Additionally, the central bank maintained its bond buying program of 80 trillion yen ($675 billion) per year and invested in exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts. Now, an analyst at J.P. Morgan expects BoJ to cut interest rates further to minus 0.5% from the current minus 0.1% anytime soon, plus increase its Japanese government-bond purchases. Further, many economists expect Japanese growth to rebound in the coming months. As per the survey by the Japan Center for Economic Research, 38 analysts project that the economy would expand by an average of 1.4% in the first quarter, which would mark the best growth in five quarters. Given this, Japanese ETFs are poised for a rebound, especially in the session right after the Presidents’ Day holiday in the U.S. As a result, investors could tap the current opportune moment by investing in Japan ETFs. ETFs in Focus Currently, there are several Japanese equity ETFs trading on the U.S. market. While there are a handful that are relatively specialized, either tracking small-cap benchmarks or dividend-focused indexes, the most encouraging funds right now are the ones that are not confined to one segment, but provide exposure to the broad Japanese equity market. Below, we have highlighted some of them that could fetch substantial returns in the coming days on the expectation of additional stimulus. Of these, the ultra-popular fund is the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: EWJ ), with a total asset base of $17.7 billion. This fund tracks the MSCI Japan Index and holds 318 stocks in its basket. Though it is slightly skewed toward the top firm – Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM ) – at 5.8%, other firms do not account for more than 2.12% of assets. It trades in heavy volume of 50.3 million shares per day and charges 47 bps in annual fees. Another fund that provides a similar broad exposure to the Japanese stock market is the Precidian MAXIS Nikkei 225 Index ETF (NYSEARCA: NKY ). This fund does not have the same level of AUM or volume as EWJ, having nearly $41.6 million in assets and exchanging 40,000 shares a day. But it follows a much more widely known index – the Nikkei 225. Here, Fast Retailing ( OTCPK:FRCOF , OTCPK:FRCOY ) makes the top firm with 8.4% share, while other securities hold less than 4.3% share in the portfolio. The ETF has a slightly higher annual fee of 50 bps. Investors should note that both EWJ and NKY are large-cap centric funds with minor allocations to mid and small caps, and having consumer discretionary and industrials as the top two sectors. The products also have a Zacks Rank of 3 or “Hold” rating. Apart from these, Japan hedged funds – the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DXJ ), the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBJP ) and the iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: HEWJ ) – seem excellent picks. These ETFs offer exposure to the broad Japanese stock market, while at the same time provide a hedge against any fall in the Japanese yen. The trio has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or “Buy” rating, suggesting that they will outperform the markets in the coming months. Risk-aggressive investors seeking to make big profits from the bullish sentiments in a very short period could go long on either of the three leveraged products, namely the ProShares Ultra MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: EZJ ), the Direxion Daily MSCI Japan Currency Hedged Bull 2x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: HEGJ ) and the Direxion Daily Japan Bull 3X Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: JPNL ) – available in the space. EZJ provides two times (2x, or 200%) leveraged exposure to the daily performance of the MSCI Japan Index, while JPNL creates a triple (3x, or 300%) leveraged long position in the same index. Meanwhile, HEGJ seeks two times leveraged exposure to the MSCI Japan US Dollar Hedged Index. Original Post

Time To Buy Casino ETF On Value?

The dark clouds of slowdown that were long settled over Macau are finally clearing. Casino operators, who have been suffering from a sluggish business scene in Macau, are again seeing glimmers of hope. Notably, Macau – a Chinese territory – is one of the largest casino gaming destinations in the world. Credit crunch in Mainland China, check on illegal money transfers especially in VIP gaming, constraints on visa and last but not the least, a broad-based slowdown in China wrecked havoc on the casino business in Macau. However, these burning issues have started to cool off. Gaming revenues declined 21.4% year over year in January, but the fall was lesser than what analysts had projected. Year-over-year declines in Macau gaming revenues may decrease further in February to 5%, as per Credit Suisse Group AG. In the last one month, the casino gaming ETF Market Vectors Gaming ETF (NYSEARCA: BJK ) was up 3.3% (as of February 12, 2016). All in all, there was a boost in sentiments in gambling companies. This makes it more important to look at casino earnings this season. Below, we highlight two key casino earnings releases: Q4 at Wynn Resorts On February 11, Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN ) posted mixed fourth-quarter 2015 results. Adjusted earnings of $1.03 per share decreased 14.2% but beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.74 by 39.2%. Revenues of $946.9 million missed the consensus mark of $1960 million by 1.4% and slipped 17% year over year, owing to a choppy performance in Macau. Despite the mixed performance, investors were keen on building positions in the stock as founder Steve Wynn pointed out that this January as ‘the best month in a long time’. Investors took this statement as a sign of turnaround in Macau operations, which have long been a pain for Wynn. The company surged more than 15.8% on February 12, 2016 following the earnings report. Notably, Wynn Macau revenues plummeted 27% year over year to $555.7 million in the quarter, owing to lower revenues at the VIP and the mass market segments, while Wynn Resorts’ revenues from Las Vegas operations increased 3.8% year over year to $391.2 million supported by higher non-casino revenues. WYNN has a Zacks Rank #3 with a value style score of ‘B’. The underlying industry of the company is in top 25% segment of the Zacks Universe. Q4 at Las Vegas Sands Las Vegas Sands’ (NYSE: LVS ) fourth-quarter 2015 earnings of $0.62 – announced on Jan. 27 – missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.64 by 3.1%. Earnings fell approximately 32.6% year over year. The downside reflects a decline in revenues, partially offset by lower expenses. Quarterly net revenue of $2.86 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.92 billion by 2.1% and declined 16.2% year over year due to soft business in Macau. Since reporting earnings, the stock gained about 6% (as of February 12, 2016). LVS has a Zacks Rank #3 with a value style score of ‘B’. Casino ETF: Time to Buy? The performance at Wynn Resorts has acted as a cornerstone for the entire space as LVS also added over 9% and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM ) advanced about 7% at the close on February 12, 2016. WYNN’s outsized gains gave a big push to the casino gaming ETF which was up 3.4% on February 12, but is down 0.7% since Las Vegas Sands reported its earnings. Moreover, investors should note that casino stocks have been extremely cheap in valuation after undergoing a steep sell-off. Plus, analysts are betting on a turnaround in Macau. Per analysts , the region is changing itself from being mass-centric to being VIP-oriented. Another group of analysts believes that “if the yuan and Chinese economy stabilize there’s money making opportunity in Macau.” In any case, all three companies mentioned above have found a place in the fund with a considerable share. Las Vegas Sands and Sands China – together have about 16% exposure in BJK. Wynn Resorts takes about 3.21% in the fund while MGM has about 6.2% share. The fund holds about 43 stocks in total. The product charges 66 bps in fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3. Original Post