Tag Archives: china

Time To Jump On The Band Wagon And Put On Some Asia Trades

Various Hedge Funds Shorting China It probably all started with George Soros’s comments during the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Where he said a hard landing for the Chinese economy was inevitable and he was, therefore, betting against Asian currencies as a result. Since then, reports are surfacing of various Hedge Funds taking on the powerful Chinese government in plays against its stocks and currency. Kyle Bass’s Hayman Capital sold most of its other investments to concentrate its exposure to China. It is 85% invested in shorting Asian currencies, including the Yuan and Hong Kong Dollar. They are playing a long term bet with a return horizon stretching 3 years. Greenlight Capital Inc. has options on the Yuan heading south and billionaire trader Stanley Druckenmiller and hedge fund manager David Tepper also have short positions against the Renminbi. Other Hedge funds mentioned by the WSJ as being short include the Carlye Group, Scoggin Capital, and ESG Short China Fund. This is happening at a time when the Chinese government is showing concerns for a Soft landing and taking on this government could prove risky as it has the largest foreign reserve holding worldwide at $3.9 trillion. The situation in China The markets at home have not had a great start to the year and economic data has not been as strong as forecast previously. Latest NFP figures came out much lower than expected and attention has been focusing on China being the catalyst as fear of a global recession begins to build. The economic slowdown in China has been gaining speed, the last two GDP growth figures were both lower than previous at 6.9% and 6.8%. The PMI index for manufacturing is currently at 48.4 and has been below 50 since July last year. Levels below 50 indicate a contracting economy. But the biggest concern for investors is that the contraction may be larger than the government controlled statistics office is actually reporting . The Chinese currency was selected by the IMF as a Reserve currency last November 30th; this was due mainly to its widespread use in international trade. The effect of the Yuan joining the select club of reserve currencies still remains to be seen but initially, it has had little impact. Capital outflows for the last quarter were down by $843 billion HML, although the average capital flow from 1998 to 2015 has been a negative $325.54 billion HML, we are still considerably low and capital flows have not been more negative since 2008. Click to enlarge Last January 12th, there was a run on Yuan short trades in Honk Kong forcing the overnight lending rate, to finance short positions, up to 66% nearly 10 times the normal rate, which fell back down to 8% the next day. Despite the firepower of the Chinese government, there are still limits to what it can do and for how long it can sustain any intervention. How to play the market It’s not easy to short sell Chinese stocks; foreign investment in Chinese A shares is not even permitted. However, you can gain exposure to Chinese equity through a number of ETFs. Each ETF tends to focus on different segments of shares. SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: GXC ) is the most comprehensive, but iShares China Large-Cap (NYSEARCA: FXI ) is the largest and most traded fund, with $4.65 billion AUM. The Yuan is fairly accessible through most online brokers and so is the Hong Kong Dollar. If futures are the preferred vehicle, then the CME also quotes USD/CNH futures. Contract size like the other FX futures is $100,000 which may be large but margins are low at CNH 15,000 for front contracts and CNH 16,100 for back-end contracts. Futures allow you to hedge your Long contract by selling another contract month. For choice, I would prefer being long the back-end and short the front. As my view is that long-term Asian currencies will depreciate but short term, they may bounce back up. If your online broker has access to the Honk Kong exchange (HKEx) then you could still gain exposure to the Chinese stock market with the use of futures. The exchange offers various indices; my choice would be for the Hang Seng Index Futures HSI, tick value is HK$50. Or MHI, the mini Hang Seng Index which has a tick value of HK$10. If you really want to gain exposure to the mainland and corporations operating there, then you should go for the CES China 120 Index. If the slowdown in the economy continues, then the Chinese government will also probably lower interest rates in an attempt to spur the economy. The government has already cut interest rates 5 times since the beginning of 2015. The Hong Kong exchange quotes 3-month HIBOR HB3 and 1 month HIBOR HB1. For choice, I would prefer buying the 3-month contract as it should feel any interest rate cut in a greater way. The notional size of this contract is HK$5,000,000 and one tick equals HK$125.00, initial margin is HK$1,820. Click to enlarge Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: How does that look now? Thanks.

ECB To Further Stimulate Economy: 5 Euro Mutual Funds To Buy

The Eurozone economy is trying hard to crawl back to its pre-crisis peak. It is currently grappling with issues like a slower growth rate, slump in bank stocks as well as a refugee crisis. Europe was subject to a continuous inflow of refugees from war-torn nations like Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. In addition, global headwinds such as the sluggish growth rate in China and a continuous slump in oil prices are causing a lot of heartburn for the region. The European Central Bank (ECB) introduced reform measures to boost its fragile economy, which fell short of expectations. Nevertheless, the ECB President Mario Draghi’s assurance at the European Parliament that more stimulus measures are on the way boosted investor sentiment. He believes that the Eurozone economy is on a firmer ground than what it seems. He also sounded pretty confident about the state of the beleaguered banking sector. As for the refugee crisis, most of the economists believe that it won’t have a large economic impact as it is more of a political issue. In fact, ageing nations such as Germany’s manpower will stand to improve. In order to cash in on these positives, investors may look toward investing in Europe-focused mutual funds. These funds not only delivered positive returns during the period of crisis, but are also poised to perform well on the back of an improving economy. Lackluster Growth, Bank Stocks Take a Hit The 19-country Eurozone expanded at an annual rate of 1.1% in the final quarter of 2015, less than what it was at the onset of the 2008 global economic crisis. Greece falling back into recession and Italy’s economy remaining stagnant were some of the major reasons that pulled back the broader economic growth in the Euro region. The ECB responded to the crisis by trimming a key interest rate to negative 0.3% in December and extending its bond-buying program of 60 billion euro a month until March 2017. These measures were taken to boost the ailing Eurozone economy and achieve the desired inflation rate of less than 2%. However, these steps were not enough to impress investors as they were anticipating deeper rate cuts and additional asset purchases. The inflation rate in the single-currency area stood at 0.4% in January, way below the level expected. Meanwhile, banks’ stocks in Europe took a beating. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index that covers 47 regional companies engaged in the banking sector tanked more than 20% year to date. Ultra-low interest rates are hampering the profits that banks make from loans. The spread between long-term rates at which banks lend and short-term rates at which banks borrow has shrunk considerably. A Confident Draghi Given the wild swings in banks’ shares, Draghi reassured investors about the health of the banking sector. Draghi emphasized that even though low-interest rates adversely affected banks, the monetary stimulus measures employed since the financial crisis have increased the resilience level of the broader financial system. He said that Eurozone banks have boosted their financial strength by increasing core tier one capital ratios from 9% to 13%. The banks are also in a “good position” to handle bad loans. He added that “the ECB’s supervisory arm is working closely with the relevant national authorities to ensure that [their] non-performing-loan policies are complemented by the necessary national measures.” Moreover, Draghi said that “[they] will not hesitate to act” to stimulate the Eurozone economy and push the inflation rate to its desired level. He pledged to revive the economy by “reviewing and possibly reconsidering the monetary policy stance in early March.” He has already fought back to improve sentiments by keeping interest rates unchanged in January. After hearing from Mario Draghi, economist Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said that the ECB may cut the interest rate from a negative 0.3% to a negative 0.4% in March. The ECB might also increase its asset purchases by 20 billion euro to 30 billion euro from the current level. If this comes about, stocks are certainly expected to move north. 5 Euro-Focused Mutual Funds to Buy Given the optimism exuded by Draghi, investors might have a look at funds exposed to the Eurozone. Our analysis is based on selecting funds that have overcome bottlenecks by posting commendable returns. Further, fueled by solid fundamentals, these funds are also poised to perform well in the near term. These funds have positive 3-year and 5-year annualized returns, carry a low expense ratio, have minimum initial investment within $5000 and possess a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy). When it comes to the refugee crisis, however, it will be prudent to keep an eye on the region to arrive at informed decisions. Fidelity Europe (MUTF: FIEUX ) seeks growth of capital over the long term. FIEUX invests a large portion of assets in securities of European issuers and other investments that are tied economically to Europe. This fund’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 1.01% is lower than the category average of 1.47%. FIEUX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1. Invesco European Growth A (MUTF: AEDAX ) seeks long-term growth of capital. AEDAX invests a major portion of its assets in securities of European issuers and in derivative instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities. This fund’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 2.1% and 4.5%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 1.37% is lower than the category average of 1.47%. AEDAX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. T. Rowe Price European Stock (MUTF: PRESX ) seeks long-term growth of capital. PRESX invests the majority of its assets in European companies. This fund’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 3.1% and 4.2%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 0.95% is lower than the category average of 1.47%. PRESX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. JPMorgan Intrepid European A (MUTF: VEUAX ) seeks total return from long-term capital growth. VEUAX invests primarily in equity securities issued by companies with principal business activities in Western Europe. This fund’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 1.41% is lower than the category average of 1.47%. VEUAX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. Fidelity Nordic (MUTF: FNORX ) seeks long-term growth of capital. FNORX invests a large portion of assets in securities of Danish, Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish issuers and other investments that are tied economically to the Nordic region. This fund’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 10.5% and 7.5%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 0.99% is lower than the category average of 1.86%. FNORX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1. Original Post

Best And Worst Q1’16: Telecom Services ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings

The Telecom Services sector ranks eighth out of the ten sectors as detailed in our Q1’16 Sector Ratings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. Last quarter , the Telecom Services sector ranked eighth as well. It gets our Dangerous rating, which is based on aggregation of ratings of six ETFs and 13 mutual funds in the Telecom Services sector. See a recap of our Q4’15 Sector Ratings here . Figure 1 ranks from best to worst all six Telecom Services ETFs and Figure 2 shows the five best and worst-rated Telecom Services mutual funds. Not all Telecom Services sector ETFs and mutual funds are created the same. The number of holdings varies widely (from 24 to 56). This variation creates drastically different investment implications and, therefore, ratings. Investors seeking exposure to the Telecom Services sector should buy one of the Attractive-or-better rated ETFs from Figure 1. Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The Rydex Telecommunications Fund (MUTF: RYMIX ) is excluded from Figure 2 because its total net assets are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. The iShares North American Tech-Multimedia Networking ETF (NYSEARCA: IGN ) is the top-rated Telecom Services ETF and the Fidelity Wireless Portfolio (MUTF: FWRLX ) is the top-rated Telecom Services mutual fund. IGN earns an Attractive rating and FWRLX earns a Neutral rating. The iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF (NYSEARCA: IYZ ) is the worst-rated Telecom Services ETF and the Rydex Telecommunications Fund (MUTF: RYTLX ) is the worst-rated Telecom Services mutual fund. Both earn a Very Dangerous rating. 45 stocks of the 3000+ we cover are classified as Telecom Services stocks, but due to style drift, Telecom Services ETFs and mutual funds hold 56 stocks. China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL ) is one of our favorite stocks held by Telecom Services ETFs and mutual funds and earns a Very Attractive rating. Since 2012, China Mobile has generated positive economic earnings , maintained a top quintile return on invested capital ( ROIC ) of 20% or higher, and generated a cumulative $22.9 billion in free cash flow. However, CHL remains significantly undervalued. At its current price of $54/share China Mobile has a price to economic book value ( PEBV ) ratio of 0.6. This ratio implies that the market expects China Mobile’s profits to permanently decline by 40% from current levels. If China Mobile can grow profits by just 10% compounded annually for the next five years , the stock is worth $123/share – a 127% upside. Telephone & Data Systems (NYSE: TDS ) is one of our least favorite stocks held by FTUAX and earns a Dangerous rating. Since 2009, Telephone & Data systems after-tax profit ( NOPAT ) has declined by 21% compounded annually. At the same time, its ROIC has fallen from 5% to a bottom quintile 1%. Shares of Telephone & Data remains significantly overvalued given the clear deterioration of its business operations. To justify its current price of $23/share, TDS must immediately achieve pre-tax margins of 3% (0% in 2014) and grow revenue by 10% compounded annually for the next 16 years . Figures 3 and 4 show the rating landscape of all Telecom Services ETFs and mutual funds. Figure 3: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst ETFs Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 4: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Mutual Funds Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings D isclosure: David Trainer and Kyle Guske II receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.