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Top And Flop Zones Of Q1 And Their ETFs

The start of 2016 was the worst ever for the broader financial market, thanks to the twin attacks of the China meltdown and the oil price crash that sparked off fresh fears of a global slowdown. Additionally, a strong dollar, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, weak corporate earnings, uncertain timing of the next interest rates hike, weakness in many developed and developing economies, and concerns over the health of the global banks added to the chaos. A slew of worries sent the major U.S. bourses into correction territory from the recent peaks, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones plunging more than 14% (as of February 11). However, the stocks staged a nice comeback in the back half of the first quarter, recouping all the losses made in the quarter. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are now in the green, having logged 1% and 1.7% gains, respectively, from a year-to-date look. This is largely thanks to extra easing policies in Europe and Japan, stabilization in the Chinese economy, and receding fears of recession in U.S. Further, the rebound in oil price from its 12-year low and the Fed’s dovish comments infused a fresh lease of life in the stock markets. All these have increased the appeal for riskier assets lately, leading to a bullish trend in stocks, though bouts of volatility are still showing up. That being said, most corners of ETF investing have performed exceptionally well, while a few areas are lagging. Below, we have highlighted the best and worst zones of Q1 and their ETFs in detail. Best Zones Metal Mining ETFs Global uncertainty and financial market instability have brought back the lure for metals across the globe, boosting their demand. Acting as leveraged plays on underlying metal prices, metal miners tend to experience huge gains compared to their bullion cousins in a rising metal market. While all the ETFs in the mining space have enjoyed smooth trading, the PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF (NYSEARCA: SILJ ) is the biggest winner, having surged about 71% in value. This product provides a true small cap play on the silver mining space by tracking the ISE Junior Silver (Small Cap Miners/Explorers) Index. In total, the fund holds about 24 securities in its basket, with the largest allocation going to the top three firms – First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG ), MAG Silver Corp. (NYSEMKT: MVG ) and Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS ). These firms combine to make for 40.3% of the fund’s assets. Canadian firms take the lion’s share at 82%, while the U.S., Peru and the United Kingdom take the remainder. The fund has managed assets worth $9.2 million and trades in a paltry volume of less than 18,000 shares a day. It charges 69 bps in annual fees. Natural Resource ETFs The natural resource segment gained immense strength in the first quarter, with robust performances in its chemical business as well as the metals & mining, and steel industries. A growing automotive market, a solid residential construction market and increasing production are boosting growth. Further, the impressive rebound of oil price from the 12-year lows hit in mid-February raised the appeal for these products. All these combinations have given a huge boost to the new ETF – the SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF (NYSEARCA: NANR ) – that has accumulated $744.2 million in AUM in just three months of its debut, while surging 17% in the first quarter. Volume is solid, with the fund exchanging 490,000 shares in hand on average. The ETF offers a well-balanced exposure to the basket of natural resources companies in the energy, materials, and agriculture industries. It tracks the S&P BMI North American Natural Resources Index, charging investors 35 bps in fees and expenses. Holding 60 securities in its basket, it is highly concentrated on the top two firms – Chevron (NYSE: CVX ) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM ) – with over 9% share each. Other firms hold less than 6.2% of assets. Materials make for half of the portfolio, closely followed by 45% in energy and the rest in consumer staples. Gold ETFs After posting the third annual loss in 2015, gold is heading for its biggest quarterly gain in nearly 30 years , having risen more than 15% in the first quarter. This is especially thanks to global growth concerns, the Fed’s cautious stance on rate hikes, and the adoption of negative interest rates by most countries that resulted in risk-off trade, increasing the safe-haven appeal across the board. In particular, the PowerShares DB Gold ETF (NYSEARCA: DGL ) has been leading in this corner of the ETF world, gaining nearly 15.6%. The fund seeks to track the DBIQ Optimum Yield Gold Index Excess Return, which consists of futures contracts on gold, plus the interest income from the fund’s holdings of US Treasury securities. It has amassed $218.2 million in its asset base, while it trades in moderate volume of 64,000 shares, thereby resulting in additional cost in the form of a wide bid/ask spread beyond the expense ratio of 0.78%. The product has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or “Hold” rating with a Medium risk outlook. Worst Zones Biotechnology ETFs Being a high-growth and high-beta sector, biotechnology has been hit hard by the global market rout seen in January and early February. Further, sector-specific issues, including increased regulatory scrutiny over high drug prices, political uncertainty surrounding healthcare reform, soft enrollment in public health insurance exchanges, and continued deceleration in earnings growth intensified the woes. While all the ETFs in this space saw terrible trading, the BioShares Biotechnology Clinical Trials ETF (NASDAQ: BBC ) stole the show, plunging over 36% in the first quarter. The ETF provides exposure to the companies that have a primary product in Phase I, II, or III of FDA trials by tracking the LifeSci Biotechnology Clinical Trials Index. Holding 90 small cap stocks in its basket, the fund is widely spread out, as each firm holds no more than 2.23% share. BBC has accumulated $27.6 million in its asset base and charges fees of 85 bps per year. It trades in a light volume of 11,000 shares a day and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3. Natural Gas ETFs Natural gas price has been on a wild swing since the start of the year, dropping in early March to levels not seen in 18 years on expanding supply and falling global demand. A mild winter in the U.S. and EU also dented the demand from heating for natural gas. As a result, the ETFs tracking natural gas futures have been hit, with the iPath DJ-UBS Natural Gas Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEARCA: GAZ ) shedding 30.5%. The note delivers returns through an unleveraged investment in the natural gas futures contract plus the rate of interest on specified T-Bills. It follows the Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex Total Return Index. The product is unpopular and illiquid, with AUM of $5.1 million and average daily volume of 53,000 shares. Its expense ratio came in at 0.75%. Solar ETFs Solar stocks have also been victims of investors’ shift from the high-beta space and vicious oil trading given investors’ misconception that oil price and solar market fundamentals are directly related to each other. Even the encouraging industry trends, including higher panel installations, the historic Paris climate deal, the U.S. tax credit extension, and Obama’s ‘Climate Action Plan failed to revive growth in the sector. As such, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA: TAN ), which offers exposure to the global solar industry, tumbled about 26%. The product follows the MAC Global Solar Energy Index and holds 29 securities in its basket, with the largest allocation going to the top three firms, which combined to make up for 21.9% share. American firms dominate the fund’s portfolio at nearly 55.9%, followed by China (17.9%) and Hong Kong (15.0%). The product has amassed $224 million in its asset base and trades in good volume of around 184,000 shares a day. It charges investors 70 bps in fees per year. Original Post

Peak Oil And Runaway China: A Dangerous Combination Of Memes

By Ron Rimkus, CFA Back in 2005, investors heard an endless chorus in the financial media around two memes: the end of oil, and the growth of China. Oil production was supposedly hitting its upper limits. In 2005, the US Department of Energy published a study on the peaking of world oil production (.PDF) that stated: Because oil prices have been relatively high for the past decade, oil companies have conducted extensive exploration over that period, but their results have been disappointing [….] This is but one of a number of trends that suggest the world is fast approaching the inevitable peaking of conventional world oil production [….] The world has never faced a problem like this [….] Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary. The peak oil narrative was reaching a fever pitch around the same time as China’s “runaway growth” meme. A BBC report on ” 2004: China’s Coming Out Party ” highlighted how China’s increasing appetite for oil was affecting global prices. Other articles made eye-popping comparisons of China’s cities before and after the country’s economic changes (decades apart). For instance, Shenzhen transformed from a sleepy fishing village in 1980 to a bustling urban empire by 2006 . Shenzhen had grown at an annual pace of 28% per year during this 26-year period. Yes, you read that right. The pair of memes led some investors to embrace the notion that oil supply was peaking just at the moment that oil demand was accelerating- a recipe for higher and higher oil prices. Then, we all marveled as the price of oil rose from $30 per barrel in 2003 to well over $100 by 2008 . In subsequent years, both memes were proven wrong. There was no “abrupt and revolutionary” oil peaking, and China’s energy demands would not keep growing forever . But higher oil prices created an umbrella of opportunity for capital formation, and much of that capital flowed into US shale oil projects. Between 2009 and 2015, total US oil production nearly doubled from 5,000 barrels per day to just under 10,000 barrels per day , thanks largely to shale oil. The shale revolution, which took place because high prices stimulated investment and innovation, blew apart the notion that the world had reached peak oil. By the end of 2014, it became apparent that oil output would satisfactorily meet demand growth. Blindly following popular investment memes is a recipe for disaster, and investors who convinced themselves that oil prices would remain above $100 per barrel were blindsided by the return of oil priced under $40 per barrel – even though it was a function of price signals directing capital investment as a normal part of the business cycle. One person who correctly identified the business cycle as it played out was Amy Myers Jaffe , executive director for energy and sustainability at the University of California, Davis. “When I would talk about this boom and bust cycle in 2005 and 2007,” Jaffe said in a 2013 issue of The Planning Report , “people would heckle me off the stage because it looked like the price of oil was going to be high forever.” But time has a way of vindicating truth, and now her perspective looks quite prescient. Jaffe will be sharing her views on current events in global energy markets at the 69th CFA Institute Annual conference in Montréal. All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.

Country ETF Update

By Joseph Y. Calhoun The theme for Single Country ETFs over the last month is either countries that produce a lot of natural resources (commodities) or countries in which sane people don’t invest. Okay, maybe sanity isn’t the proper metric but surely investors who can’t afford to take a loss shouldn’t be investing in Russia, Peru or Turkey, all three of which make the top 10 for performance over the last 3- and 1-month periods. For the one-month period, just for kicks, Greece makes the top 10, another place the typical retiree probably ought not be chasing yield or returns. To be serious though, the performance of these Country ETFs proves one thing for sure – risk is not a static thing. Any market can become sufficiently cheap that investing in it can be a low risk endeavor. And some of these countries’ stock markets were very cheap before these rallies and even more importantly, some of them still are. Here’s the return rankings: Click to enlarge Click to enlarge This is part of the weak dollar/strong commodity/higher inflation expectations theme I’ve been writing about the last couple of months. As the dollar has softened, commodity prices have risen and stock markets in countries that are heavy commodity producers have risen dramatically, an indication that the sentiment had moved way too far in the other direction. Almost no one was expecting a commodity rally with the global economy – especially China – so weak. But a weak dollar is powerful stuff even if it isn’t fully realized. I think this rally has actually moved a little too far, too fast. Commodities and stock markets in countries where they are produced are due for a rest and the hawkish jawboning of the Fed last week started to take the froth off a bit. Based on the frequency and timing of the Fed’s passive/aggressive hawk/dove act, one could be excused for thinking maybe the object of their obsession is the stock market rather than real economy factors. But I digress and so does James Bullard. It may seem as if the central banks have control, that the dollar is trading in a range that is acceptable to all… something that happens only very rarely and surely won’t last. But in the simplified world of Keynesian economics, the strong dollar was the source of the recent market troubles, a harbinger or reflection of economic woes and therefore had to be nipped in the bud. If a strong dollar caused the problems, a weak one will cure them and the world is on board with that – to a point. Right now, all of these short-term moves don’t mean a thing though from a momentum standpoint, mere dead cat bounces from very oversold conditions. Not one of the Country ETFs in the 3-month or 1-month best return top 10 lists has a buy signal from our long-term momentum indicators. I do think that the dollar’s rise is over for now, though, and some of these will eventually turn out to have been great investments. But not yet. Patience is probably an investor’s best friend right now. As for valuation, using Market Cap/GDP, several of these stick out as cheap. Singapore, Spain, Russia, Brazil, India and Indonesia all look cheap relative to where they’ve traded historically. Watch the dollar carefully for clues about your stock investments. Generally, a weaker dollar will favor foreign equities over domestic. That’s a generalization so it doesn’t apply all of the time with all markets but it is a major factor for monetary as well as economic reasons. For investors, there are ways to cope with a weak dollar and higher inflation. For the Fed, I will just say what I’ve said before about their hope for higher inflation – be careful what your wish for, you just might get it good and hard.