Tag Archives: calendar

What To Expect When You’re Rebalancing

Rebalancing client portfolios requires a delicate balance. It can provide risk control, but rebalancing too often could incur needless costs. This research paper evaluates the benefits and challenges of rebalancing and offers rebalancing strategies and best practices. Use this paper to: Explore the benefits of rebalancing and the potential challenges of discussing rebalancing with clients. Evaluate the basics of three common rebalancing strategies: time-only, threshold-only, and time-and-threshold. Discover techniques for implementing a rebalancing strategy. What to expect when you’re rebalancing

New Trend-Following Fund Limits Your Downside

By Alan Gula, CFA Paul Tudor Jones (PTJ), a legendary trader and hedge fund manager, essentially predicted the stock market crash of 1987. In a PBS documentary, PTJ asserted, “There will be some type of a decline, without a question, in the next 10 to 20 months… it will be earth shaking… it will create headlines that will dwarf anything that’s happened up to this point in time.” On October 19, 1987 the S&P 500 dropped 20.5% in a single day. Many investors were eviscerated, and some traders were completely wiped out. That month, PTJ’s fund was up an astonishing 62%. PTJ is an ardent proponent of trend following. That is, you always want to be positioned with the prevailing price trend. If a security or futures contract is trending higher, then be long. If it’s trending lower, get flat (no position) or be short. So how do we determine the predominant trend? In an interview with Tony Robbins for Money: Master the Game , PTJ revealed that his preferred metric is the 200-day moving average of closing prices. Regarding the 1987 crash, Robbins asked, “Did your theory about the 200-day moving average alert you to that one?” PTJ responded, “You got it. It [equity index] had gone under the 200-day moving target. At the very top of the crash, I was flat.” The following chart helps illustrate what PTJ saw: Trend following has been around for ages. But now funds are popping up that automate the process. For example, the Pacer Trendpilot 750 ETF (BATS: PTLC ) was launched in June 2015. This exchange-traded fund (ETF) alternates exposure to the Wilshire U.S. Large-Cap Index (Index) or U.S. Treasury bills (T-Bills) depending on the trend indicators. Here are the allocation rules: Positive Trend Established: When the Index closes above its 200-day simple moving average (NYSE: SMA ) for five consecutive trading days, the exposure of the fund will be 100% to the Index. In other words, the fund will be fully invested in equities. Negative Trend Established: When the Index closes below its 200-day SMA for five consecutive trading days, the exposure of the fund will be 50% to the Index and 50% to 3-month T-Bills. Negative Trend Confirmed: When the Index’s 200-day SMA closes lower than its value from five business days earlier, the exposure of the fund will be 100% to 3-month T-Bills. These rules are designed to keep the fund invested when the stock market’s trend is up but to protect capital with the safety of T-Bills during down trends. Also, the rules attempt to minimize fund turnover during periods of high volatility. PTLC seeks to replicate the performance of a trend-following index. The chart below shows its back-tested results. The trend following index has outperformed over the long term with much smaller drawdowns (peak-to-trough declines). The benefits of trend following as a form of risk management can clearly be seen during the equity bear markets in 2001-2002 and 2008-2009 (yellow circles). The expense ratio of 0.6% for PTLC is a bit high, but the ETF does conveniently simplify the trend-following process. It’s worth noting that the ETF’s current exposure is 100% T-Bills, meaning that a stock market downtrend has been confirmed. The 200-day moving average is such a simple indicator that few people believe it offers valuable information. Also, with so much focus on daily catalysts and short-term moves in the media, the big-picture trend gets lost amid the din. The last time the S&P 500 crossed below its 200-day SMA was at the very end of 2015. I doubt PTJ was caught off guard by this year’s 10.5% decline through February 11.

Tech ETFs That Braved The Storm In February

Among other reasons, the month of February 20 16 will be remembered for the broad-based sell-off in the tech space. In any case, a retreat from high-growth stocks kept this space off the radar, but the tension flared up when LinkedIn Corp. (NYSE: LNKD ) issued a lackluster guidance for the first quarter of 20 16 in early February (read: LinkedIn Crashes: Should You Connect with Social Media ETF? ). Along with LinkedIn, the famous FANGs (Facebook (NASDAQ: FB ), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX ) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) (NASDAQ: GOOGL ) (i.e. Alphabet) were also hit hard. Notably, the famous four contributed a lot to last year’s tech surge. However, the bloodbath in these stocks dragged down the tech-laden Nasdaq exchange, forcing it to be the worst performing index among the top three U.S. indices. Nasdaq- 100 ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ) was off over 1.8% in February while Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLK ) lost about 1%. Apart from the LinkedIn-induced crash, overvaluation concerns, global growth issues and corporate recession were responsible for last month’s technology tantrum. Almost all ETFs catering to cyber security, the broader Internet, cloud computing and software were the hardest hit in the technology meltdown. Still, there are a few tech ETFs which dared the sell-off to end the month in the green. Below we highlight three such tech ETFs. iShares North American Tech-Multimedia Networking ETF (NYSEARCA: IGN ) – Up 6.8% This ETF provides a concentrated exposure to the domestic multimedia networking securities by tracking the S&P North American Technology-Multimedia Networking Index. Holding 26 securities in its basket, Motorola (NYSE: MSI ) takes the top spot with a 9.5% allocation. This is followed by Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM ) (9.35%) and Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO ) (8.7%). The product has a definite tilt toward small cap securities that account for 43%, followed by mid caps at 34%. It has accumulated $78.9 million in its asset base while sees a moderate volume of around 7 1,000 shares a day. Expense ratio comes in at 0.48%. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 1 or ‘Strong Buy’ rating with a high risk outlook. PowerShares S&P SmallCap Info Tech ETF (NASDAQ: PSCT ) – Up 3.8% This fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Capped Information Technology Index. It has amassed $377.5 million in its asset base and trades in average daily volume of about 4 1,000 shares. The ETF charges 29 bps in fees per year from investors. Holding 102 securities in its basket, the product is well spread across securities with none holding more than 3.5 1% share (read: 5 Small Cap ETFs & Stocks that Beat Russell 2000 in 20 15 ). From an industry look, about one-fourth of the portfolio is allocated toward electronic equipment, followed by semiconductors ( 19.43%) and software ( 16.29%). The product has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or a ‘Buy’ rating with a high risk outlook (read: Top Tech ETFs of 20 15: The Best from a Winner ). First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Index Fund (NASDAQ: TDIV ) – Up 3. 1% This fund provides exposure to the dividend payers in the technology sector by tracking the Nasdaq Technology Dividend Index. The product has amassed about $462.9 million in its asset base and trades in moderate volume of about 98,000 shares per day. The ETF charges 50 bps in annual fees and holds about 96 securities in its basket (read: ETFs to Tap on Cisco’s Upbeat Q4 Results ). Cisco occupies the top position in the fund, making up for roughly 8.23% of the assets followed by IBM (NYSE: IBM ) (8.04%) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) (8.0 1%). In terms of industrial exposure, the fund allocates nearly one-fifth portion in semiconductor and semiconductor equipment, followed by diversified telecom services ( 17%), software ( 15.52%), technology hardware, storage & peripherals ( 15.3%), and communications equipment ( 14.6%). Original Post