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5 ETFs Losing Half Or More Of Its Value In 2015

Overall, 2015 has not been good for the U.S. equity market, caught up as it was in a vicious circle of never-ending woes. It all started with Fed uncertainty, a strong dollar and slumping commodities, and then extended to geopolitical tensions and global growth concerns, especially in China. Additionally, the U.S. economy, which was growing at a faster rate in over a decade in 2014, has cooled off substantially this year. While healing labor market, a gradual recovery in the housing market, robust auto industry, and cheap fuel are driving growth, persistent weakness in manufacturing activity, plunging oil prices, and shaky consumer confidence are posing threats to economic expansion (read: 5 ETFs for Loads of Holiday Shopping Delight ). As a result, the major indices – the S&P 500 and Dow Jones – are in the red territory from a year-to-date look, losing 0.3% and 1.4%, respectively. In fact, a number of products have been crushed, piling up huge losses for many ETFs. Below, we have highlighted five ETFs that have been hit badly so far in 2015 and might continue their rough trading in the months ahead if the trends persist unabated. First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FCG ) – Down 56.5% Natural gas producers have been the biggest laggard this year on falling natural gas price. This trend is likely to continue in the months ahead given declining demand, increasing production, and growing global glut. Additionally, the expectation of a milder weather for late December – the key period that drives heating demand – will push the natural gas price lower. The Energy Information Administration (NYSEMKT: EIA ) expects heating bill to decline 13% this winter (read: No Winter Cheer for Natural Gas ETFs? ). Consequently, FCG, which offers exposure to U.S. stocks that derive a substantial portion of their revenues from the exploration and production of natural gas, is down 56.5% in the year-to-date time frame. It follows the ISE-REVERE Natural Gas Index and holds 30 stocks in its basket, which are well spread out across components with none holding more than a 7.1% share. The fund has amassed $172 million in its asset base while charging 60 bps in annual fees. Volume is good with more than 1.7 million shares exchanged per day on average. The ETF has a Zacks ETF Rank of 5 or ‘Strong Sell’ rating with a High risk outlook. First Trust ISE Global Platinum Index ETF (NASDAQ: PLTM ) – Down 54.3% The precious metal space has been hit by the double whammy of the broad market commodity rout and rate hike concerns. Robust supply and dwindling demand are weighing on the price of platinum since the start of the year. Additionally, the prospect of a rate hike backed by solid job numbers and moderate inflation has dampened the appeal for platinum. As such, PPLT has fallen 54.3% so far this year. The fund provides exposure to the companies that are active in platinum group metals mining by tracking the ISE Global Platinum. In total, it holds 18 securities in its basket with double-digit concentration in the top three firms. Other firms do not hold more than an 8.07% share. South African firms take the largest share in the basket at 27.6% followed by double-digit exposure each in Australia, United Kingdom, United States, Russia and Canada. Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSEARCA: KOL ) – Down 54.0% Coal has fallen completely out of favor over the past few years due to the thriving alternative energy space and weak global industry fundamentals. The depletion of fossil fuel reserves, global warming and high fuel emission issues, new and advanced technologies as well as more efficient applications are making clean power more feasible, reducing the demand for the black diamond. These are making it difficult for the coal miners to sustain their profitability and margins. As a result, the ETF targeting the global coal industry has seen a wild ride and was off nearly 54% so far this year. KOL tracks the Market Vectors Global Coal Index. Holding 27 securities in the basket, the fund is concentrated in the top 10 holdings at 64.6% of total assets. It has a Chinese focus accounting for 28.4% of the portfolio while U.S., Australia and Canada round off the next three. The fund has amassed $42.5 million in its asset base and trades in average daily volume of 71,000 shares. Expense ratio came in at 0.59%. KOL has a Zacks ETF Rank of 4 or ‘Sell’ rating with a High risk outlook. Yorkville High Income MLP ETF (NYSEARCA: YMLP ) – Down 52.7% MLP was the worst hit corner from the oil price carnage with YMLP shedding the most – 52.7% in the year-to-date time frame. Being an interest rate sensitive sector, these securities will be further impacted by rising rates. This bearish trend is likely to continue as the Fed is on track to increase rates as early as next week. The fund follows the Solactive High Income MLP Index, charging investors 82 bps in annual fees. Holding 26 stocks in its basket, it is highly concentrated in the top 10 holdings at 58.3%, suggesting higher concentration risk. Oil & gas pipeline products take the top spot from a sector look at 40%, followed by oil refining & marketing (12%), and oil & gas drilling (10%). The product has managed $101.3 million in AUM and trades in moderate volume of 137,000 shares. SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (NYSEARCA: XME ) – Down 50.0% Thanks to plunging metal prices and weak global trends, this broad metal & mining ETF has also lost half of its value. Acting as leveraged plays on underlying metal prices, metal miners tend to experience huge losses than their bullion cousins in the slumping metal market. In particular, a strong U.S. currency is making dollar-denominated assets more expensive for foreign investors, thereby dulling the appeal for these commodities. The ETF offers a broad exposure to the U.S. metal and mining industry by tracking the S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index. Holding 30 stocks in its basket, it uses an equal weight methodology and does not put more than 6.8% of assets in a single security. In terms of industrial exposure, steel makes up a large chunk at 49.3%, while diversified metals and mining, and gold round out the next two spots with double-digit allocation each. The product has $242.4 million in AUM and trades in solid trading volumes of more than 2.6 million shares per day on average. It charges 35 bps in fees and expenses. Link to the original post on Zacks.com

Asset Class Performance During The First Week Of December

Below is a look at recent asset class performance using our key ETF matrix. Gains of roughly 2% were seen across the board in U.S. equities today, with the Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ ) leading the way at +2.34%. Today’s move higher left major indices back in the black for the month, but only by a small amount. On a sector basis, everything was higher today except for Energy (NYSEARCA: XLE ), which fell 0.63% and is now down nearly 5% on the month. Year-to-date, Energy is now down 18.27% – by far the most of any sector. On the positive side, Consumer Discretionary is up the most at 12.57% year-to-date. Have a look at the right side of the matrix for international equity performance, commodities and fixed income.

A Rate Hike Will Threaten This Bond Fund’s Reach For Yield

Summary HYT has moved towards higher duration issues to maintain distributions, making it more heavily exposed to a rate hike than other high yield funds. HYT’s dividend history and its current failure to earn income to cover distributions indicate a rate cut in 2016. Nonetheless, there is an opportunity to purchase HYT when the market discounts its underperformance too heavily — although that time has not come quite yet. BlackRock Corporate High Yield Fund (NYSE: HYT ) is a thinly traded and often overlooked closed-end fund that seeks consistent high income to shareholders through active capital allocation in the high yield taxable bond and debt derivative universe, with a smattering of equity on the side. To its credit, the fund has a solid track record of paying special dividends that have driven its total yield above 8% for most of its history since inception. This must be counterbalanced by a consistent decline in dividends and a fall in NAV that make it suspect for the income-seeking investor. Currently, the fund deserves attention because a recent dividend cut for HYT and turmoil in the high-yield market as a whole have generated interest in just about any high-yielding CEF. But there is cause for caution. The Dividend History Unfortunately, regular dividends have been consistently falling for this fund for a long time: (click to enlarge) In 2015, shareholders faced a 7.3% dividend cut after similar cuts came to the fund in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Dividends have fallen 41% since the fund’s inception, and the fund’s market price has fallen by a third. The Capital Losses Some CEF investors like to catch funds that trade at a discount to NAV using the logic of value investors: get dollars when they’re on sale for 80 cents. In addition to the falling dividends HYT pays out, there is another reason why this strategy will not work with HYT. The fund’s overall capital losses are not abating. According to the fund’s most recent annual and semi-annual reports , the fund has lost 7.4% of its value from June to September. Over a one-year period to September, the fund lost 3.14% of its NAV. Since then, the fund has lost another 0.6% of its NAV. Greater Exposure to Rising Rates We can largely attribute these losses to a cratering in the high yield market, which has also caused a distressing decline in the NAV of high yield funds such as Pimco High Yield Fund (NYSE: PHK ) and caused me to sell my holdings in that fund (I discuss this decision here ). In the case of PHK, management seems to be preparing for this fall in junk debt values by shifting the portfolio towards shorter duration holdings at higher yields. In theory, this will free up capital for new issues at higher rates if the Federal Reserve raises rates in December or early next year. In the case of HYT, this is not management’s strategy. In September, HYT had 75% of its holdings with maturities ranging between 3-10 years, with over half having maturities between 5 and 10 years. In June, 68% of its holdings were in the 3-10-year maturity window, with 44% in the 5-10-year maturing range. This means there is now a higher risk of HYT losing more of its NAV if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and rates for high yield debt goes up as well. Even if the Fed doesn’t raise rates, if the market worries about higher default rates due to declining profitability on the stronger dollar, or because of cheap oil, or any other of the myriad reasons that have driven a fall in the high yield market in 2015, HYT is more exposed than PHK and other actively managed high yield funds. The CLO Bet HYT is also making another small bet by moving into CLO investments. In its last annual report, HYT disclosed approximately $24.5 million in CLO investments, which is over half of its $49.5 million invested in asset-backed securities. On the plus side, CLOs remain only 2% of HYT’s total portfolio. There is potential for credit spreads to narrow if the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates and causes other interest rates, such as LIBOR, to follow suit, but this will have significantly less impact on HYT than on other high yield funds, both in the CEF and BDC universe, which have invested more aggressively in CLOs to boost returns. A good example of a much higher risk high yield fund that has seen weak NAV growth and high market value declines based on CLO exposure is Prospect Capital (NASDAQ: PSEC ). Their high CLO holdings are discussed in this prescient article by BDC Buzz. PSEC has fallen 12.7%, excluding dividends, since BDC Buzz’s article (although it was by no means his first warning on the dangers in that company). For HYT, this means its CLO holdings are relatively conservative. On the surface, this sounds good; but they are in fact so conservative that it is difficult to determine the purpose of holding such a small portion of the portfolio in these volatile assets. Additionally, many of those CLOs are in small and middle-market companies or BDCs that service the small and middle-market companies, again compounding HYT’s exposure to companies that are more likely to suffer higher default rates. For example, as of its September report, HYT held $2.1 million in asset-backed securities whose counterparty is Ares CLO Ltd. and another $877,000 to WhiteHorse subsidiaries of H.I.G. Capital, a diversified private equity investment firm. Matching Income to Distributions Since CLOs pay a higher yield than market-issued bonds, these are part of the fund’s overall strategy to make income match distributions. Unfortunately, the fund is still falling slightly short of its payout. Since March, the fund has paid $1.21 million of its distributions as a return of capital and its dividend coverage has remained below 85% for five months. Its current ROC is a small fraction of the overall value of the fund and is by no means a cause for alarm at the present time. However, it does indicate the strong likelihood of another dividend cut in 2016 as we have seen over the past few years, meaning investors should calculate their expected income from this fund not based on its current yield but on its likely future yield. Also, because of the long duration of the fund’s holdings, its ability to churn into higher yielding new issues will be limited, making it even less likely to enjoy a higher rate of income on its holdings if yields on corporate debt rise next year. Discount to NAV When deciding whether to purchase HYT or not, investors should also consider the fund’s discount or premium to NAV and how this is likely to trend in the future. Except for a brief spell in 2012, the fund has always traded at a discount, and its current discount is the steepest it has been since 2008. (click to enlarge) The fund’s current 13.47% discount is slightly above the 52-week average of 12.37%, although the last year’s tumultuous and volatile high yield bond market may make the last year’s average a less reliable indicator of timing a purchase in this fund than in the past. While investors looking for mean reversion may be tempted to buy as its discount seems curiously low, the above considerations about portfolio duration, ROC, and poor positioning for rising rates should make investors pause before jumping in. Conclusion HYT is not positioning itself for a rising interest rate environment and has seen a steep discount to NAV priced in as a result. Additionally, the fund’s consistent dividend cuts mean that it cannot be purchased as a source of reliable income. However, it can be purchased when the market undervalues its income potential. A careful analysis of the fund’s shift of its bond holdings by duration and a closer understanding of its allocations to CLOs and its exposure to smaller companies is necessary before making a purchase on this name.