Tag Archives: argentina

Enersis Is A Defensive LatAm Play With Attractive Yield And Significant Growth Potential

Enersis S.A. (NYSE: ENI ) Fundamentals (FYE- Dec. 31 st ) Enersis S.A. is a Chilean integrated electricity holding company and a subsidiary of Italy-based multinational energy group Enel (60.6% stake). Enersis is the largest private power platform in Latin America owning 17.3 GW of installed generation capacity spread between Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Peru. Enersis controls six distribution companies that service 15.1 million clients: Chilectra (Chile), Ampla and Coelce (Brazil), Edesur (Argentina), Edelnor (Peru) and Codensa (Colombia). Enersis’ main subsidiary is listed generation company Endesa Chile (60% stake). Enersis corporate restructuring – The spinoffs will become effective in 1Q16, creating six companies: ENI Chile and Americas, EOC Chile and Americas, Chilectra Chile and Americas. ENI Americas will launch a tender offer for EOC Americas’ minority shareholders in 2Q16. The second EGMs to vote the merger of the Americas entities to create ENI Americas will occur 90 days after the split – 60 days of trading plus 30 days prior to the session. Minority shareholders will have a withdrawal right period of up to 30 days after the second round of EGMs. The merger of Enersis Americas is expected to complete in 3Q16 (around July/August). In order to persuade the AFPs (Chilean managers of pension funds) to vote in favor of the restructuring, which proved successful, ENI’s Board of Directors resolved to amend the proposal for the tender offer for EOC Americas’ shareholders (post-split), raising the price from CLP (Chilean Peso) 236/sh to CLP285/sh. Financials FYE- Dec. 31 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 In US$ mn Revenue 9,393.9 9,352.9 9,297.20 8,965.86 10,381.96 Revenue growth (%) 1.41 (0.44) (0.60) (3.56) 15.79 Gross profit 3,817.4 3,746.8 3,492.8 3,966.7 4,113.4 Gross profit margin (%) 40.6 40.1 37.6 44.2 39.6 Operating profit 2,439.2 2,241.7 2,105.0 2,491.9 2,562.5 Operating profit margin (%) 25.9 23.9 22.6 27.8 24.7 Net profit 695.9 537.4 540.1 942.5 873.3 Net profit margin (%) 7.4 5.7 5.8 10.5 8.4 EPS (GAAP) 1.04 0.80 0.83 0.96 0.89 Dividends per Share 0.33 0.53 0.41 0.30 0.48 Capital Expenditures 1,003.5 978.7 1,008.2 1,106.0 1,554.9 Cash & ST Investments 1,387.1 1,747.3 1,445.9 3,375.1 2,570.1 Total Assets 18,614.4 19,656.3 18,958.8 21,722.7 22,787.1 Total Debt 5,269.3 5,643.9 4,778.7 4,971.8 5,132.7 Total Equity 5,346.4 5,575.7 5,572.9 8,828.6 8,876.4 ROA 8.40 6.53 6.62 7.83 6.62 ROE 13.41 9.84 9.69 13.09 9.86 No. of Employees 12,264 10,844 11,087 11,574 12,275 Competitive Advantage The company owns a difficult-to-replicate network of transmission and distribution assets providing essential electricity to its customers. Its hydroelectric generating plants, around 50% of its generating fleet, are some of the lowest cost power-generation sources and have extremely long operating lives. Chile represents almost 25% of consolidated EBITDA net of minority interest and is widely recognized as the most stable market in Latin America. It also has the region’s most predictable and reliable regulatory framework. Enersis’ true earnings power has been masked by recent droughts in several countries and hence gross margins are expected to improve once normal rainfall returns. Major Risks Hydrology risks – In a scenario of continued scarce rainfall, lower hydro load factors would be compensated by higher thermal load factors leading to higher expenses and lower margins Deteriorating Brazilian economics and utility sector fundamentals – Further deterioration in macroeconomic conditions in Brazil, power rationing and unfavorable regulatory changes are some of the risks that could negatively impact and may lead to substantially lower demand Rationing in Chile – A scenario of extremely low rainfall and thermal shutdown (due to unavailability of fuel) could lead to power rationing which would negatively impact the company Corporate restructuring remains an overhang Outlook Targeting growth in Brazil – Enersis has US$1.2B left from the 2012 capital increase to be used in M&A in Brazil, and the company’s priority is to grow in the distribution business. Its holding is targeting distressed distribution concessions from Eletrobras (NYSE: EBR ) that is likely to be privatized in 2016. The first in the pipeline is Goiás-based disCo Celg whose lengthy privatization process has just kicked off. Brazil is expected to be the main growth platform for the future Enersis Americas, as Colombia and Peru impose market share restrictions for the company which restrict growth potential while Brazil doesn’t have such restrictions. Colombia and Peru forbid Endesa Chile from having a market share in generation of more than 25%. Enersis has a market share of 22% in the Colombian generation sector and 24% in the Peruvian sector, and hence, Enersis could add no more than ~470 MW in Colombia and ~100 MW in Peru, while in Brazil, the growth potential is hypothetically unlimited. Environmental and social issues in Chile limit the approval and construction of new generation projects while Argentinean macroeconomics remained as an impediment to new investments in the past several years. Sound dividend stream in the near future – Post the conclusion of El Quimbo (late 2015), the only Greenfield project under construction will be Los Cóndores which is expected to start-up in late 2018/early 2019 with a capex budget of US$662M to be spent over four years. Hence, a boost in cash flow generation that should allow Endesa Chile to pay higher dividends, with an estimated dividend yield of 3-4% from 2016 onwards, could be attractive to defensive investors searching for yield. Investment Rationale & Conclusion LatAm consolidator poised to grow – Post the ongoing corporate reorganization, Enersis will focus on growth in Latin America and will prioritize Brazil which is hiking return rates for new investments. Low levered at 0.9x net debt/EBITDA, and with US$1.7B cash left from the 2012 capital increase, Enersis will also look for growth outside Chile and has declared interest in acquiring Brazilian distribution assets. Argentina is an important optionality for Enersis – The Argentine generation units El Chocón, Endesa Costanera and Dock Sud represent 26% of Enersis’ generation capacity but only 6% of the genCo business EBITDA. The distribution company Edesur accounts for 24% of Enersis’ distribution sales volumes but contributed with only 10% of consolidated disCo EBITDA in 9M15, and hence, its margins in Argentina are expected to significantly improve over the next few years. Enersis’ stock provides an attractive valuation and, most importantly, offers the greatest upside potential coming from regulatory improvements in Argentina and growth in Brazil (Greenfield and brownfield projects). It provides a direct exposure to the benefits of El Niño and recovering hydrology in Chilean utilities. Colombia and Peru are expected to outperform their South American peers in terms of GDP and power demand growth, offering opportunities for Endesa Chile which is the most relevant player in both countries behind the local players. Enersis currently trades at $12.77 (closing price as of Feb. 22, P/E TTM of 11.76), with its 52-week range of $10.33-$18.72, and looks attractive with strong potential to outperform over the medium to long term for reasons outlined below – The impact of a stronger El Nino phenomenon will results in normal rains and will decrease operational expenses, resulting in higher margins. Margin gains resulting from lower fuel prices to drive profitability. Significant potential from Brazil and Argentina markets to drive growth. Endesa’s experience and track record in Peru and Colombia will be key drivers for capturing growth opportunities in those markets. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: References : Company Annual Reports, Company Press Releases, Investor presentations, SEC Filings -Form 20-F and 6-K, Morningstar, BNamericas, Yahoo Finance

Worst Performing Mutual Fund Categories Of 2015

We have already shared with you the best and worst performing mutual funds in the Zacks Mutual Fund Commentary section, and last time we discussed the Top 5 Mutual Fund Sectors in 2015 . Now, let’s look at the worst performing mutual fund categories. Each of the quarters of 2015, save the final one, spelt agony for investors. Benchmarks saw their worst yearly finishes since 2008, and mutual fund investors too felt the pain. The year 2015 turned out to be anything but rewarding for most mutual funds. Stock funds also proved volatile, and bond funds delivered losses. While 87% of the funds gained in the first quarter of 2015, just 41% of mutual funds could manage to finish in the green in the second quarter. In the third quarter, a dismal 17% of mutual funds managed to finish in the green. The fourth quarter was the only saving grace, wherein many mutual fund categories attempted to reverse their year-to-date losses. Nonetheless, the majority of fund categories had ended in the red. The biggest category losers in 2015 were in line with certain key events of 2015. For example, the slump in crude prices continued through 2015, dragging the energy sector to the bottom. Meanwhile, the Latin American economies were under pressure, and mutual funds focused on that region too had to share the pain. Similarly, as the commodities were battered by a surging dollar, among other headwinds, these funds too ended deep in the red. Fund Category Losers Below, we present the 10 biggest mutual fund category losers of 2015: Fund Categories 2015 Return (%) Energy Limited Partnership -34.75 Latin America Stock -29.94 Equity Energy -27.16 Commodities Broad Basket -23.97 Equity Precious Metals -23.25 Natural Resources -22.16 Diversified Emerging Mkts -13.78 Commodities Precious Metals -12.16 Utilities -9.86 Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Stk -7.38 Source: Morningstar Energy Sector The downtrend started in mid-2014, and the slump for energy prices continued in 2015 as well. WTI Crude Oil was at $52.72 on Jan 2, 2015, while Brent Crude Oil was at $55.38. From those levels, both slumped to near $36 by the year-end. This obviously resulted in a slump in the energy sector and Equity Energy and Energy Limited Partnership were among the biggest mutual fund category losers in 2015, being 34.8% and 27.2% down, respectively. Moreover, not a single Equity Energy mutual fund ended in the green in 2015. As crude prices are hovering around their 7-year lows, the top energy companies have cut spending (particularly on the costly drilling projects) on the back of lower profit margins. This, in turn, has meant less work for the beleaguered drillers as offshore exploration for new oil and gas projects has almost come to a standstill. Moreover, the dollar surge is another headwind for the energy sector. In the absence of production cuts from OPEC, the resilience of North American shale suppliers to keep pumping despite crashing prices, and a weak European economy, not much upside is expected in oil prices in the near term. Fund to Sell Putnam Global Energy Fund A (MUTF: PGEAX ) seeks long term capital growth. PGEAX invests primarily in global large and mid-size companies involved in exploration, production and refinement of conventional and alternative sources of energy. PGEAX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #4 (Sell). In 2015, PGEAX had lost 35.8% and the 1-year loss is 38.8%. Also, the 3 and 5-year annualized losses now stand at 18.5% and 11.7%. The annual expense ratio of 1.27% is lower than the category average of 1.51%, but PGEAX carries a front-end sales load of 5.75%. Latin America The Latin America Stock fund category was the second biggest loser, which plunged nearly 30% in 2015. Latin America mutual funds had a torrid run in the last five years, witnessing heavy outflows and dismal performances. The year 2015 was no different for them, as they had to tackle the failure of its largest economy, Brazil, among other headwinds. Brazil is witnessing the worst recession in decades after its GDP nosedived 4.5% year on year in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the U.S.-domiciled Latin America funds saw their asset base slump 85% to $1.4 billion since 2010. South America’s second-largest economy, Argentina, has been plagued with weak growth, high inflation, declining currency and debt default issues. The macroeconomic outlook according to LatAmEconomy.org is not favorable either. They acknowledge that the high economic growth prospects experienced in the 2000s are over now. Per the website, “The region continues to deal with a deteriorating external environment that, without experiencing any major internal crises, is leading to modest growth rates. Medium-term growth projections, however, show further downward revisions.” Some experts fear that the outflows may continue, forcing many investors to stay away from the Latin America focused funds. Thus, the survival of some of these funds may well be in question. Fund to Sell Deutsche Latin America Equity Fund A (MUTF: SLANX ) invests most of its assets in Latin American common stocks. A maximum of 20% of assets may be invested in US and other non-Latin American issuers and debt securities that may include junk bonds. SLANX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #5. In 2015, SLANX had lost 30.4% and the 1-year loss is 35.3%. Also, the 3 and 5-year annualized losses now stand at 20.4% and 14.5%. The annual expense ratio of 1.54% is however lower than the category average of 1.75%. SLANX carries a maximum front-end sales load of 5.75%. Commodities, Precious Metals In addition to the slump in crude prices, imminent rate hike fears also kept the commodities under pressure. The U.S. dollar also kept surging in 2015, hitting multi-year high against the euro. Stronger dollar intensified the downward pressure on commodities. Dollar-denominated commodity prices, including crude oil, turned out less affordable to users of other currencies. Moreover, borrowings are set to be costlier and particularly so for high-yield firms. On that note, precious metals too were obviously affected. Remember, higher rates tend to weigh on precious metals, as they provide no yield and struggle to compete with interest paying assets in the wake of rising borrowing costs. As the Fed ended an era of extraordinary monetary policy easing by hiking interest rates in December last year, gold prices plummeted to six-year lows. The gold rout will also hit metal producers who are already reeling under a depressed pricing environment. Gold miners are trimming costs and shedding non-core assets to optimize their portfolio as they grapple with lower prices of the metal. Fund to Sell Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Investor (MUTF: VGPMX ) invests in domestic and non-US firms that are primarily involved in exploration, mining, development, fabrication, processing, and marketing of metals or minerals such as gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, or other precious metals. A maximum of 20% of its assets may also be invested directly in gold or other precious metal bullion and coins. VGPMX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #4. In 2015, VGPMX had lost 29.6% and the 1-year loss is 35.6%. Also, the 3 and 5-year annualized losses now stand at 26.8% and 22.5%. The annual expense ratio of 0.29% is however lower than the category average of 1.43%. VGPMX carries no sales load. Diversified Emerging Markets & Asia Diversified Emerging Markets slumped 13.8% in 2015. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly survey, fund managers are the most underweight on emerging-market equities against developed-market equities since the survey began in 2001. Goldman Sachs projects that yuan traded at an offshore rate may weaken by 2.5% to 3% against the dollar in the next 2 months. Eventually, the devaluation of the yuan may impact other emerging market currencies, as they are often influenced by the monetary policies in the world’s second-largest economy, China. The bearish outlook is concentrated mostly on Asia. Investors are apprehensive about the slowdown in China’s economy while the U.S. central bank may hike rates. Perhaps, this explains why Pacific/Asia ex-Japan Stock category was the 10th biggest loser in 2015. However, the Japan category was the best gainer in 2015, justified by the multi-year record highs that Japan’s key index hit in 2015. Funds to Sell Rydex Emerging Markets 2X Strategy Fund A (MUTF: RYWTX ) seeks returns that are 200%, excluding fees and expenses, of the daily performance of the BNY Mellon Emerging Markets 50 ADR Index. RYWTX invests most of its assets in companies listed in the underlying index and in derivatives. RYWTX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #5. In 2015, RYWTX had lost 37.4% and the 1-year loss is 35.6%. Also, the 3 and 5-year annualized losses now stand at 26.1% and 22.9%. The annual expense ratio of 1.75% is however lower than the category average of 2.01%. RYWTX carries a maximum front-end sales load of 4.75%. Aberdeen Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) Equity Fund A (MUTF: APJAX ) invests most of its assets in companies from the Asia-Pacific region, but excluding Japan. The equity securities may be of any market capitalization. APJAX may also invest in emerging economies, without any limit. APJAX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #5. In 2015, APJAX had lost 17.6% and the 1-year loss is 19.3%. Also, the 3-year annualized loss now stands at 7.7%. The annual expense ratio of 1.50% is however lower than the category average of 1.57%. APJAX carries a maximum front-end sales load of 5.75%. Original Post