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Pattern Energy – An Attractive Value

“}); $$(‘#article_top_info .info_content div’)[0].insert({bottom: $(‘mover’)}); } $(‘article_top_info’).addClassName(test_version); } SeekingAlpha.Initializer.onDOMLoad(function(){ setEvents();}); Management Agreement with Pattern Development gives good upside. Q1 2015 was a fluke. Their narrow focus on wind energy allows them to operate with lower costs. Before I start with the article, I would like to acknowledge that yes, I am the guy who wrote the most recent Seeking Alpha article about Pattern Energy (NASDAQ: PEGI ), in which I presented my bear case. I started working on this as a short, but then after some astute comments on the article and further research, I have come around to seeing that there is significant upside optionality here with little downside. Unlike the other yieldco’s, Pattern has a management agreement in place such that once the market cap hits $2.5B, the management of their parent company (Pattern Development) will drop down into Pattern Energy for free. When this happens, instead of earning a fixed Return on Capital like the other yieldco’s, Pattern can use their development expertise and relationships to earn potentially much higher returns on capital, and at worst they will continue earning the fixed 9-10% ROC. I would expect them to develop localized wind solutions like their Fowler Ridge development for large data-centers and other tech-focused facilities that need a reliable source of clean energy. Secondly, their first quarter was ridiculously unlucky due to El Nino winds illustrated below, particularly on the panhandle of Texas and Southern California. Anyone like myself selling the stock due to this performance was and is sadly mistaken. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) Lastly, since they focus almost exclusively on wind energy projects, they can maintain a low overhead due to specialization. From an industrial organization perspective, there are likely costs of operating developments with different technologies, which benefits competitors like Pattern who stick to their bread and butter. Alternative energy companies delving into new and unknown technologies has been risky, as shown in the WSJ recently: www.wsj.com/articles/high-tech-solar-pro… . In conclusion, the management agreement coupled with El Nino winds provide good upside and a good buying opportunity, and not a good selling opportunity as I originally thought. Their fixed purchase agreements with their customers gives them good downside protection. Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in PEGI over the next 72 hours. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Share this article with a colleague

E.ON – Strategically Positioning Itself For A Green Future

Positioning themselves strategically; inflection point in stock price. Geographical exposure to accelerating green energy trends. Preferred pick amongst large-cap European utilities. E.ON ( OTCQX:EONGY ) reported a record annual loss for 2014 as it took impairment charges associated with writing off its Italian and Spanish businesses as discontinued assets in its FY14 results on 11th March. These divestments are part of a refocusing its core businesses and portfolio optimization. E.ON’s announced in Dec 2014 that it will divest carbon interests and look to refocus business on renewables, smart grids and energy efficiency in a bold move to reposition itself in an industry strongly influenced by green energy trends. The European Union has set a target of 20% for the share of energy consumption to come from renewable energy sources by 2020, with each member state agreeing to a national target outlined in the 2009 EU Renewables Directive. Initial doubters of the credibility of the commitment have been proved wrong with the steady progress made by member nations. By 2012 the EU achieved 11.0% share of energy consumption generated from renewables . E.ON is particularly exposed to these trends as its home market is Germany which has undergone a transformation since the 2011 Fukushima crisis. It has set itself a target of generating 80% of electricity from clean sources by 2050 . Furthermore, technological advances in renewables have seen the costs of generating renewable energy falling, particularly for solar energy. This the shift towards renewable energies looks set to continue and we believe E.ON’s recently announced new strategic positioning will bring long term benefits to the company and its shares. Within Europe, E.ON has exposure to the regions that appear to be most affected by trends towards green energy. The company’s earnings are mainly generated from Germany with the UK and Sweden the other largest sources of earnings within the EU. Germany and Sweden generated ~24% and 60% of their electricity consumption from renewables in 2012. Furthermore, the UK government has been supportive of new green energy projects approving a number of projects in recent years as it tries to meet EU targets for 2020. In 2014, E.ON grew EBITDA by 20% in wind and solar and overall 18% of EON s EBITDA came from renewables . This looks set to continue as they stated they would pursue disciplined capex with > 70% of 2015 capex in Wind, Solar, Distribution Networks & Customer Solutions. The recent new refocused strategy and its exposure to countries in Europe that provide more favorable conditions for renewable energy growth should benefit the company in the medium to long term. E.ON has stated its preference towards wind and solar energy. Positioning towards renewables not only aligns it to wider energy regulation but also to technological trends. UBS stated in a report published in 2014 it believes solar and smart grid technologies will be at the forefront of wider change in power generation . It emphasizes “Solar is at the edge of being a competitive power generation technology” and that “power is no longer something that is exclusively produce by huge, centralized units owned by large utilities”. The falling cost of renewables technologies has coincided with the expected rise of the electric car and improvements in battery technologies. UBS predict a 50% reduction in the cost of batteries by 2020. This will allow homeowners to own battery packs to store energy and power their electric vehicles. Michael Liebrich of Bloomberg New Energy Finance stated that renewable energies have become “fully competitive with fossil fuels in the right circumstances” and their competitiveness looks set to strengthen in coming years as technological advances continue. Therefore, the positioning of the business towards renewables looks smart and it should help E.ON trade on higher valuation multiples, such as P/E. Renewables trade on higher multiples compared to traditional energy business due to stagnation in these traditional businesses and the potential for growth in renewable energy along with higher profit margins. Risks during the strategic overhaul should be taken into account as there is degree of uncertainty over divestments and the valuation of the new company that will be spun-off in 2016. Divestments have continued into 2015 with the sale of its Italian coal and gas power plants and reports suggesting it is looking to sell its North Sea exploration and production assets for around $2bn. Other business risks include its exposure to Russia which generated 7.4% of EBITDA in 2013. Furthermore, gas prices which continue to stay low or trend downwards will affect company earnings as E.ON repositions its business model. Analysts appear divided on whether EON’s transformation is too radical and whether the strategy will be successful. The stock has underperformed the wider European market and Stoxx 600 Utilities index over the last 5 years due to its poor performance, see graph below. It is valued attractively given this underperformance and current poor ROA at 0.96x P/B (cf sector 3.2x) with EV/EBITDA of 4.2x . Its dividend yield is 3.9%, slightly higher than the sector with a pay-out ratio of 60% which is easily defendable given a reasonable net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.4x. It has also announced it will keep a fixed dividend to bridge the transition to its spin-off. (click to enlarge) The big question is can a traditional utility reinvent itself as a green energy services power house. We believe they can and implementing the strategy earlier than its competitors will allow E.ON to position itself competitively within a transforming industry. Its aims to decarbonise its services at a faster rate should be attractive to investors and raise it from current low stock valuation multiples. Furthermore, the less capital intensive its business becomes the greater the cash flows it will generate and the more it will be able to boost investment and shareholder returns in the future. Renewable energy is shaping the utilities sector and we believe E.ON’s recent strategic overhaul positions it perfectly to benefit. Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks. Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This 9.5% Yielding CEF Is The Gift That Keeps On Giving

“Taper tantrums” in the credit markets are giving investors another ideal buying opportunity with junk bonds. The “smart money” remains bullish on junk bonds for 2015. Junk bond ETF’s make sense, but bargains and higher yields are possible with closed end funds that trade at a discount. My favorite closed end fund trades for a 7% discount to net asset value, it yields 9.5%, and it pays shareholders every month. Here we go again, the markets are having another “taper tantrum” and that has caused some selling pressure in junk bonds. We have seen pullbacks in the junk bond sector many times in the past few years and each one has been a great buying opportunity. This recent sell-off appears to be another golden opportunity to buy high-yielding assets from investors who are either uninformed or just plain overly focused with short-term thinking. Let’s take a look at the chart of a popular junk bond ETF below: (click to enlarge) As the chart above shows, the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: JNK ) is now trading near the 200-day moving average of $38.59, which is a potentially strong support level. At this level, the potential downside risk could be limited and that makes this an even more attractive buying opportunity. Furthermore, there are other good reasons to be buying junk bonds now: The market has been so overly focused on this potential rate hike that it seems like many investors are acting very irrational over the fear of any rate hike. However, a closer look reveals that there is really nothing to fear, because like just about everything in this economic “recovery”, any rate hike is likely to be very minimal. One analyst in a recent Washington Post article describes the potential rate hike as being “bupkis” or “absolutely nothing” in terms of the size. The article states: “I don’t expect that they’ll do more than a quarter point,” said Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of his own advisory firm Yardeni Research. ” Bupkis as we say in New York,” he added, using a Yiddish word that has come to mean ‘absolutely nothing’ in English. “I think they’ll do the bare minimum,” he added, “for credibility sake. To show they can. They haven’t had any practice.” He predicted that the Fed’s action will be described as “one and done.” The reality is that the stock market and high yield bonds could rally as soon as the “rate hike” takes place as the certainty of this event could calm irrational investor fears and allow the market participants to realize that even after a quarter point hike, stocks and high yield bonds are still the only game in town. All this hand-wringing over a quarter point hike is irrational because it is nowhere near enough to make savings accounts, money market accounts or CD’s, a competitive asset class when compared to dividend stocks or high yield bonds. It appears that the “smart money” sees this and that is why firms like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) are bullish on junk bonds for 2015 . Another long-term positive factor is that the European Central Bank’s new bond buying program is creating more demand for high yield assets. A recent Bloomberg article , states that the European Central Bank’s bond buying program (quantitative easing) is pushing yields below zero on nearly $1.7 trillion worth of debt and that is also creating more demand for high yield assets. Furthermore, the fact that interest rates can move up a little (ok, barely) is a bullish sign for the overall economy. A stronger economy means that junk bond default rates could decrease and credit ratings could increase thereby making the bonds more valuable and lower risk. I believe it makes sense for investors to accumulate shares in JNK but there is another way to get an even higher yield and a bargain…… and that is to consider closed end funds, or CEF’s, which can trade for a discount to net asset value. In this sector, my favorite closed end fund is the Pioneer Diversified High Income Trust (NYSEMKT: HNW ). This is a CEF which primarily invests in high yielding bonds. For numerous reasons, this remains one of my favorite ways to invest in junk bonds: It is well diversified, it trades at a discount to net asset value, it pays a dividend every month, the payout appears secure, plus it yields 9.5%. The Pioneer Diversified High Income Trust has around 432 holdings which indicates it is well diversified. This fund has an average duration of just 3.02 years, which means that duration risk is very low and that is another reason why this fund is very attractive. The Pioneer Diversified High Income Trust has average earnings per share of more than 16 cents per month . This means the monthly payout of 13.5 cents per months appears very solid. (click to enlarge) The chart above shows that the share price is now a bargain at just about $17, because the net asset value (as of June 11, 2015) is $18.32. The current share price represents a discount of about 7% below net asset value. That is a large discount and it is one that has not historically lasted for long as rebounds have typically quickly followed these types of pullbacks. I believe that the market is overly focused on a “bupkis” rate increase and that means investors will once again be looking to buy high yield assets. A quarter point increase is not enough to make the generous 9.5% yield that the Pioneer Diversified High Income Trust any less attractive to most investors who desire income. The 7% discount to net asset value makes it a real bargain. Plus, with the generous yield, and with the dividend payout being made to investors every month, this closed end fund is like a gift that keeps on giving. Here are some key points for the Pioneer Diversified High Income Trust: Current share price: $17.10 The 52 week range is $16.43 to $21.63 Annual dividend: $1.62 per share (or 13.5 cents per month), which yields about 9.5% Here are some key points for SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond: Current share price: $38.69 The 52 week range is $37.26 to $41.82 Annual dividend: about $2.40 or (20 cents monthly) per share which yields 6% Data is sourced from Yahoo Finance. No guarantees or representations are made. Hawkinvest is not a registered investment advisor and does not provide specific investment advice. The information is for informational purposes only. You should always consult a financial advisor. Disclosure: The author is long JNK, HNW. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.