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U.S. Infrastructure Is Aging And In Dire Need Of A Refresh

By Mary-Lynn Cesar New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Vice President Joe Biden made a joint appearance Monday afternoon to announce major infrastructure upgrades to LaGuardia Airport. Adding to Biden’s ” third-world country ” description of LaGuardia, Cuomo said the airport was ” un-New York ” and revealed that construction on a new LaGuardia airport will begin next year. The project is expected to cost the Port Authority of NY & NJ $4 billion . LaGuardia is but one example of US infrastructure that badly needs an update. There are the Hudson River rail tunnels -which service Amtrak and NJ Transit trains between New York and New Jersey-the Albion River Bridge in coastal California and the nation’s wastewater and drinking water systems , to name a few. According to the American Society of Civil Engineers’ 2013 report card , which assesses and grades all segments of US infrastructure, things are in poor shape. The overall grade was a D+, and an estimated $3.6 trillion would need to be invested in infrastructure by 2020 to improve the situation. Per Governing.com, the five largest infrastructure projects currently underway in the US are the Dulles International Airport Corridor Metrorail Project, Otay Mesa East port facility construction, modernization of O’Hare International Airport, expansion of the Crescent Corridor freight rail network and replacing the Alaskan Way Viaduct. Combined the projects will cost $21.4 billion. While there are trillions that need to be invested in US infrastructure, the fact remains that they haven’t been yet. Perhaps this is why infrastructure ETFs with exposure to potential US projects haven’t been performing well. In fact, all of the following funds have underperformed the market on a monthly quarterly and year-to-date basis. Could the LaGuardia airport project help some of these ETFs turn things around? Deutsche X-trackers S&P Hedged Global Infrastructure ETF (NYSEARCA: DBIF ) ( Earnings , Analysts , Financials ): Seeks to track the performance of equity securities of infrastructure issuers in developed markets. Net assets under management: $3.53M, most recent closing price: $23.77. The fund has underperformed the market by -3.22% over the last month, -5.54% over the last quarter and -4.66% since the beginning of the year. SPDR S&P Global Infrastructure ETF (NYSEARCA: GII ) ( Earnings , Analysts , Financials ): Seeks to reflect the stock performance of companies within the infrastructure industry, principally those engaged in management, ownership and operation of infrastructure and utility assets. Net assets under management: $97.83M, most recent closing price: $46.08. The fund has underperformed the market by -4.46% over the last month, -8.40% over the last quarter and -3.64% since the beginning of the year. iShares Global Infrastructure ETF (NYSEARCA: IGF ) ( Earnings , Analysts , Financials ): Seeks to replicate the S&P Global Infrastructure Index. Net assets under management: $1.20B, most recent closing price: $40.05. The fund has underperformed the market by -4.09% over the last month, -8.00% over the last quarter and -3.79% since the beginning of the year. ProShares DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure ET (NYSEARCA: TOLZ ) ( Earnings , Analysts , Financials ): Seeks to replicate Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Composite Index. Net assets under management: $25.99M, most recent closing price: $40.55. The fund has underperformed the market by -5.60% over the last month, -10.04% over the last quarter and -7.10% since the beginning of the year. (Monthly return data sourced from Zacks Investment Research. Assets data sourced from Yahoo! Finance. All other data sourced from FINVIZ.) Share this article with a colleague

Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund: The Reverse Of Wellington

Having written about VWELX, a reader asked my take on sister fund VWINX. The two are pretty much the reverse of each other. That, in the end, winds up being a risk issue for potential investors. A lot of investors look at bonds as a way to generate income. And that’s true. But in an asset allocation model, they are also a way to provide diversification and stability. In other words, a big part of owning bonds is safety. And that’s where a comparison of value-focused Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund (MUTF: VWINX ) and Vanguard Wellington Fund (MUTF: VWELX ) leads to some interesting findings. One down, now for number two I recently wrote an article about Vanguard Wellington . Within the comments, a reader asked if I would also take a look at sister fund Vanguard Wellesley. The comparison of the two is actually pretty interesting and highlights an important aspect of investing: risk. Wellington’s portfolio goal is to actively invest in stocks and bonds with a mix of roughly two-third stocks and one-third bonds. There’s a band around those percentages since it’s an actively managed fund, but it generally keeps pretty close to its goals. Sister fund Wellesley’s goal is the mirror image, one-third in stocks and two-thirds in bonds. And what that means for performance is very important. For example, as you might expect, Wellington outperforms bond-heavy Wellesley over the trailing one-, three-, five-, 10-, and 15-year periods through June on an annualized total return basis. That said, over the longer periods, the numbers start to get pretty close. There’s just 30 basis points or so separating the two funds over the 15-year period and around one percentage point over the trailing decade. But, the trend is intact, the fund with more stocks does, indeed, do better on an absolute basis. Interestingly, the income both funds generate is pretty close, too. Wellesley’s trailing 12-month yield is a touch under 3%. Wellington’s yield is roughly 2.5%. To be fair, a good portion of that has to do with the current low rate environment. In a different period, with higher interest rates, I would expect Wellesley’s yield advantage to be larger. But what about risk? But return and distributions aren’t the only factors to consider. Bonds are also about risk control. And on that score, these two funds have very different profiles. For example, over the trailing three years, Wellington’s standard deviation, a measure of volatility, is around 5.5. That’s a pretty low standard deviation. However, Wellesley’s number is an even lower 4. For most conservative investors, either of those two figures would be agreeable. Looking out over longer periods starts to show a bigger gap. For example, over the trailing 15-year period, Wellesley’s standard deviation is roughly 6 and Wellington’s is around 9.5. That’s a more meaningful difference. And remember that the two funds had very similar performance numbers over that span. Thus, over the trailing three years, Wellington’s Sharpe ratio of 2, a figure that measures the amount of return relative to the amount of risk taken, outdistances Wellesley’s 1.7. But over the trailing 15 years, those numbers flip, with Wellesley’s Sharpe ratio of 1 outdistancing Wellington’s 0.7 or so. Since performance over that longer term is so close, the big reason for the difference here is risk. Who’s right for what? At the end of the day, the two funds are both good options for conservative investors looking for a balanced fund. The biggest difference is really in the investor’s desire for safety. If the higher bond component in Wellesley will help you sleep better at night, then you should probably go with the more conservative of these two funds. If you don’t find solace in having more bonds in your portfolio, go with Wellington – noting that the choice is likely to lead to a slightly higher risk profile. That said, there’s a caveat. Interest rates are at historic lows. Bond prices and interest rates move in opposite directions. So when rates go down, bond prices go up. That’s been a tailwind for Wellesley for quite some time. If rates start to move higher quickly, however, that could turn into a headwind because as rates go up, bond prices go down. Wellesley’s higher debt component will mean rising rates are a bigger issue for the fund than for its sibling. However, both funds are run by the same management company and have been around a long time. They have dealt with shifting interest rates before. So this is something to keep in mind, but I wouldn’t let it deter me from purchasing either of these two well-run funds if my goal was to own them for a long time. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Timing Is Everything

The length of time investors have to plan for is the single most powerful factor in their investment process. If time is short, investments with the highest potential return are the least desirable, because they entail the greatest risk. But given enough time, assets that appear risky become desirable. Time transforms investments from least attractive to most attractive – and vice versa. Our time horizon has a major impact on our investment strategy. This is true in the natural world as well. I’ve been to the coastal redwoods in California, and they’re awesome. John Steinbeck called them “ambassadors from another time.” In many ways, they are. They regularly reach ages of 600 years or more, and some are over 2000 years old. Their natural resistance to disease and insects allows them to grow slowly and gradually. But they have to. The high rainfall in their coastal habitat leaves the soil with few nutrients. By contrast, stumbling into a thicket of pin cherries in the Northeast woods can leave you breathless, but in a different way. The undergrowth can be so thick it’s easy to get disoriented. Pin cherry trees sprout and grow quickly, taking advantage of any disturbance in the forest canopy. But they only live 20 to 40 years, and they’re an important source of food for many types of animals. It would be foolish to say that either tree is more successful. Each has adapted to its environment. What works in one context doesn’t work in another. That’s why, for investors, the typical time period we use to calculate returns – one year – may be misleading. A single year simply doesn’t match the time available to different investors with their differing objectives and constraints. Different assets – and asset mixes – are appropriate in different circumstances. (click to enlarge) Average return and dispersion of return for various asset classes over different time periods, 1926-2010. Source: Jay Sanders, CPA So if you’re worried about the market, be sure to ask yourself how much time you have until you need the money. Because the quickest way to turn a temporary fluctuation into a permanent loss is to sell the asset. Share this article with a colleague