Tag Archives: amzn

Netflix Original Shows To Keep Subscribers In Place After Price Hike

Netflix ’s ( NFLX ) U.S. streaming business should be able to weather an upcoming price increase thanks to the Internet TV service’s increasingly popular original shows, investment bank Cowen said Tuesday. About 36% of Netflix’s U.S. streaming subscribers, or roughly 16 million customers, will see their standard plan increase by $2 to $9.99 a month in May, Cowen said. Netflix enacted the first of two price hikes in May 2014 but gave existing customers a grace period. Cowen analyst John Blackledge predicted that Netflix’s U.S. customer churn will rise “only slightly” in the second quarter, based on the results of a recent survey. The survey showed a rising amount of time spent on Netflix and the growing importance of original shows. Cowen is forecasting Netflix to add 630,000 net new U.S. subscribers in Q2, down 30% from the number added in Q2 2015 but above analyst consensus estimates of 500,000 to 600,000. Given seasonal weakness and the price increase, there is some concern that Netflix could guide to a U.S. net subscriber loss or only a modest gain in Q2, Blackledge said in a report. But the Cowen survey data showed strong support for Netflix. Netflix is scheduled to report Q1 earnings and give Q2 guidance after the market close on April 18. Netflix Viewers Average 10 Hours Of Video Monthly Cowen surveyed 2,500 U.S. adults Feb. 26 through March 8 for its latest Netflix poll. Of those surveyed, 49% were paying Netflix subscribers, 11% were former subscribers, 29% have never been subscribers, 9% were users that had access to the service but were not paying subscribers, and 2% were on a free trial. U.S. Netflix subscribers say that they view about 10 hours of video on the service per month on average vs. about 8 hours per month in a December 2014 survey, Cowen said. Some 58% of subscribers say that they pay for Netflix because of its original shows. That’s up from 37% in December 2014. Blackledge maintained his outperform rating on Netflix stock with a price target of 155. Netflix was up 1%, near 105, in afternoon trading on the stock market today . Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, on the other hand, says that Netflix could see a significant uptick in subscriber churn when the price hikes kick in. He estimates that more than 30 million U.S. Netflix subscribers are facing a price hike this year. Amazon.com ’s ( AMZN ) Prime streaming video service could benefit from the Netflix churn, he said in a research report Monday. Netflix hopes to minimize the impact of the price hikes by launching new seasons of its most popular exclusive shows. “Netflix countered the impact of higher pricing by releasing two high-profile originals (‘House of Cards’ and ‘Daredevil’) in March and by timing the release of the next season for ‘Orange Is the New Black’ (its most watched show, according to Survata) for June 17,” Pachter said. “It appears the company hopes to limit churn by timing heavily viewed releases at quarter end.” Pachter rates Netflix stock as underperform with a price target of 45. Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein on Monday reiterated his outperform rating on Netflix stock and his price target of 140. “We are modestly lowering our domestic streaming subscriber net adds to reflect the expiration of price grandfathering, but maintaining our positive long-term view on domestic pricing power/margins and international subscriber growth,” he said in a report. Previously grandfathered subscribers will see price increases in May and October. Subscribers who joined prior to May 2014 will see their monthly bill increase by $2 ($7.99 to $9.99) next month. Subscribers who joined between May 2014 and October 2015 will see a $1 increase ($8.99 to $9.99) in October. Netflix ended 2015 with 74.76 million streaming subscribers, of which 44.74 million are in the U.S. RELATED: Netflix Investors Too Focused On U.S., Missing Global Opportunity

Disney Leads 3 Big-Name Media Stocks Making Notable Moves

Loading the player… Let’s take a look at three media-related stocks making notable moves Tuesday: Walt Disney ( DIS ), Twitter ( TWTR ) and Netflix ( NFLX ). Disney was dropping more than 2% in heavy trade on the stock market today after announcing late Monday that Chief Operating Officer Thomas Staggs will be leaving his current position, effective May 6. He’ll stay on as special advisor to the CEO through the fiscal year, which ends in October. But investors are concerned because Staggs was set to take over the chief executive position from Robert Iger in two years. The gap down came in big volume and sent shares back to their 50-day line, where the stock is now trying to find support. Disney is trying to recover from a steep decline, triggered by ESPN subscriber losses, which put shares nearly 30% below their November peak. The stock is now trading about 20% below its high reached last August. Twitter To Stream NFL Games Twitter won rights to live-stream 10 Thursday Night Football games, which will also be broadcast on network TV channels. Verizon ( VZ ), Yahoo ( YHOO ) and Amazon ( AMZN ) were bidding for the rights too, according to Bloomberg. Facebook ( FB ) also had a bid but pulled it last week. Twitter shares were trading slightly higher in heavy turnover. The stock initially rose and then reversed lower in choppy action. Shares were able to retake the downward-sloping 50-day line in Monday’s session and were trying to find support there Tuesday. Twitter is 67% below its 52-week high. Meanwhile, Facebook rose fractionally intraday, Amazon and Verizon fell less than 1%, and Yahoo lost 1.9%. Netflix Reports Earnings Soon Netflix is due to report its first-quarter results in less than two weeks, on April 18. Analysts expect earnings to drop 64% as costs rise. Revenue is projected to increase by 25%. In May, the price of a Netflix subscription will go up by $2. UBS said in a report Monday that the price hike will translate to a low churn of 3% to 4% over the second and third quarters, as Netflix has strong pricing power. The analyst sees a total of 450,000 net U.S. subscriber additions in Q2. Netflix is rising 0.2% in above-average volume, but it’s still hitting resistance at its 200-day line. Shares lost support at that level around the time of Netflix’s last quarterly report. The stock is trading 21% below its December high. Image provided by Shutterstock .

Twitter Tackles Facebook, Google, Yahoo To Win NFL Streaming Rights

Twitter ( TWTR ) made an end run around Facebook ( FB ), Amazon.com ( AMZN ), Alphabet ( GOOGL ) subsidiary Google, Verizon Communications ( VZ ) and Yahoo ( YHOO ) to capture digital rights to the NFL’s Thursday Night Football, a deal Twitter announced early Tuesday. Now the real work begins, says Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst James Cakmak. While “winning the deal is one thing, executing to optimize the product experience is another,” Cakmak wrote in an industry note. The NFL has streamed selected games in the past, but this is its first season-long streaming deal. It’s also a high-profile foray into live programming for Twitter. Given Twitter’s focus around live events and Twitter CFO Anthony Noto’s prior position as the NFL’s CFO, “We see this as an opportunity to leverage the Periscope acquisition and achieve success around live programming and promotion of the conversation around it,” Cakmak wrote. He added that “the $10 million price tag paid by Twitter is less than anticipated, considering Yahoo paid $20 million for a single game last season, which averaged slightly over 2 million viewers per minute. But at this price, we see this as the perfect option for Twitter, with very limited downside.” ‘Bold Moves’ Required By Twitter Stifel analyst Scott Devitt called Twitter’s latest hunt for new users “an aggressive and potentially expensive move by Twitter to reinvigorate user growth and engagement, but bold moves are required to turn the business, so we will wait to fully pass judgment.” The deal poses “no risk” for the NFL, since “it gets its check while continuing to broadcast on network TV and can go back to market in two years, offering streaming rights to the highest bidder, just like it is doing here on the heels of the one-off deal with Yahoo last year,” Devitt said in research note. Last season, Yahoo paid $17 million to stream a game from London and also broadcast on network TV in the teams’ home markets, according to Bloomberg. On U.S. television, NFL commands the highest per-game price for any sport, Bloomberg said. In the most recent broadcast deal, CBS ( CBS ) and Comcast ’s ( CMCSA ) NBC each paid about $45 million a game for five Thursday night contests for the 2016 and 2017 seasons, according to Bloomberg. Under the new deal, Twitter will live-stream the football games to the public for free at the same time they are being shown on NBC, CBS and the NFL Network, the NFL said in a statement. “This is about transforming the fan experience with football. People watch NFL games with Twitter today. Now they’ll be able to watch right on Twitter Thursday nights,” Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey said in the statement. Reports quoted Devitt as saying the digital rights Twitter attained also include the Sunday morning U.K. International Series, which in 2016 will pit the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts in Week 4, the Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants in Week 7, and the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Redskins in Week 8. Twitter stock rose last week on reports that MasterCard would be interested in working with social media services Twitter and Facebook to build up their payment services. Twitter stock was down a fraction in midday trading in the stock market today , near 17. Yahoo stock was down 2% midday Tuesday, and Alphabet stock was down almost 1%. Facebook stock was up a fraction. Twitter reported that user growth slowed for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q4 and guided its Q1 revenue below consensus estimates, raising concerns that usage may be peaking and prompting buyout rumors. Average monthly active users rose 9% year over year in Q4 to 320 million. Wall Street had expected 323 million. Growth has cooled from 18% in Q1, to 15% in Q2 and 11% in Q3. For 2016, eMarketer expects Twitter to generate $2.61 billion in worldwide ad revenue, down 11% from eMarketer’s earlier prediction of $2.95 billion.