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Nigeria’s Diversified GDP Offsets Oil Price Risk

Summary Nigeria’s GDP is extremely diversified, offsetting the risks of the current low price of oil, which has attributed to a sharp decline in the Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF. The main strengths of the ETF include the construction and banking industries, while the consumer products industry is characterized by high valuation and low growth. The sharp drop in the fund’s price since late November has created low valuation, and consequently a buy opportunity. I remain optimistic about Nigeria’s economic future, despite the fact that oil has plunged to a 6.5 year low. Citigroup even says that there is a 90% chance that oil will drop closer to $30/barrel soon . The impact of the declining price of oil has resulted in a significant decline of the Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF’s(NYSEARCA: NGE ) stock price, and this trend is certain to continue if the price of oil declines further. As 70% Nigeria’s government revenue and 90% of its export earnings come from oil exports , its struggle in a low price oil environment is inevitable. This can be seen historically in the decline of this ETFs price since late 2014, as well as examining Nigeria’s economic development since 1999 , when oil prices began to increase to an all time high by 2008. Moreover, Boko Haram can be seen as a threat to the fund’s performance, as it has previously also been responsible for a decline in the fund’s price. NGE data by YCharts However, I still take a bullish view on Nigeria on the basis of a newly emerging diversified GDP, that is not completely dependent on oil revenue; oil exports account for only 14% of the country’s GDP. The country’s Annual GDP growth is projected to increase from its current level of 2.57 to 3.61 by the 2nd quarter of 2016. The key strength of Nigeria is its banking industry, which is the second largest, only outsized by South Africa. Recent financial performance of the holdings in this industry, as well as their extremely low valuation, further edifies the value of this fund. The growth, financial performance, and current valuation of the construction industry can also be seen as a positive driver for this fund, as Nigeria is one of two countries that is projected to have higher construction growth than China. The consumer products industry is a hot topic in Nigeria, as consumption in Nigeria has been on the rise. I am, however, concerned with the future outlook of this industry, due to its relative high valuation and slowed growth in net income. Overall, a low oil price environment has created a buy opportunity for Nigeria, and the new diversified economy is strong enough to continue thriving. However, an increase in the price of oil in the future is necessary for full reconciliation of the fund’s price. Industry Specific Performance Each industry achieved the following level of growth in net income between 2012 and 2014 ; these calculations are based on the average growth of the fund’s top 10 holdings: Consumer Products Industry: 5.3% decline Construction Industry: 65.8% growth Banking Industry: 57% growth As of June this year, the average valuation for the industry was as follows: Consumer Products Industry: P/E=50.5 Construction Industry: P/E=14.9 Banking Industry: P/E=5.8 Therefore it is easy to make the following industry generalizations: The consumer products industry can be characterized as being in a bubble, and having disappointing financial growth. Its high valuation and low growth presents a minor threat to the fund’s performance. The construction industry can be characterized as having attractive valuation and substantial growth. It can be considered one of the positive drivers of the fund. The banking industry had substantial growth and has extremely low valuation. It can be considered the core competency of the fund. If there were Nigerian banking ADRs, then I would recommend solely investing in them rather than investing in this ETF. Consumer Products Industry 2015 Outlook: High Valuation with Moderate Growth Projected 1. During the 2nd quarter of 2015 , Nigerian Breweries PLC’s net revenue grew by 13% YoY and it also had 24% growth in EPS. Consequently, the company is now more attractively valued, as its P/E is now 21.7; its P/E in June was 26.3. 2. Nestle Nigeria’s net revenue declined by 17.6% YoY in March 2015, and the company’s profit decreased by 103% during this time as well. Its current P/E is 39.7 , which is slightly higher than its P/E of 35.9 in June. 3. Guinness Nigeria PLC’s net income declined by 12.2% YoY in March of 2015. Its current P/E is 61.2 , a drastic improvement from its P/E of 89.3 during June. Overall the consumer products industry can be considered a weakness of this fund, with an average P/E of 40.9, and disappointing growth during 2015. (click to enlarge) Source: Trading Economics The appeal of the consumer products industry in Nigeria is very obvious, given the substantial increase in consumer spending since 2012. The consumer products industry does have an overall favorable outlook between now and the 2nd quarter of 2016 : Consumer confidence most recently decreased by 12.4%, but is projected to decrease by 10% YoY during the 2nd quarter of 2016. Consumer spending is projected to increase at a modest rate of 2.3% during the next twelve months. Disposable personal income is projected to increase by 9.5% Overall the consumer products industry holdings are not ideal, but do not offset the appeal of the fund as a whole. Approximately 30% of the fund’s assets invest into this industry, providing the opportunity for the fund to benefit from the relative strengths of other industries. Despite disappointing growth and high valuation of these holdings, they do have a positive outlook throughout 2016. This fact, coupled with the positive industry outlook for the next 12 months, provides a somewhat favorable future outlook for these holdings. Reuters projects that Nestle Nigeria PLC’s EPS will increase by 7.6% between December 2015 and December 2016. Reuters projects that Guinness Nigeria PLC’s EPS will increase by 13.8% between December 2015 and December 2016. Reuters projects that Nigerian Breweries PLC’s EPS will increase by 8.9% between December 2015 and December 2016. Construction Industry 2015 Outlook 1. Lafarge Africa’s net income grew by 22% YoY during the 2nd quarter of 2015, reflecting a continued growth trend, although the growth has been slowed when compared to 2014. Consequently it is more undervalued at the moment, with a P/E of 11.42 ; the company’s P/E was 13.3 in June. 2. During June 2015, Dangote Cement’s net revenue rose by 15.94% YoY, and its operating profit grew by 9.3% YoY. Its current P/E is 15.33 , slightly lower than its P/E of 16.5 in June. Overall, the holdings in the construction industry have become cheaper, and were able to achieve substantial growth during 2015. The construction industry can now be viewed even more so as a positive driver for this fund, with a consistent demonstration of high growth and low valuation. However, these companies only account for around 11% of the fund’s total assets. Banking Industry: A Gem for Value Investors 42.16% of the fund’s assets are invested into the banking industry, which is the strongest segment of this fund, due to exceptional financial performance and incredibly low valuation. It is the strength of this industry in particularly that leads me to strongly justify investment into this ETF, amidst the risks associated with low oil prices and politics. Moreover, it is a strong complement to the relatively slower growth and higher valuation of the consumer products industry. 1. Guaranty Trust Bank PLC increased its net income by 34.1% YoY during the 2nd quarter of 2015, which is a substantial improvement from the growth experienced between 2012 and 2014. This has consequently created even lower valuation, as the company currently has a P/E of 5.45 . 2. Zenith Bank PLC increased its profit after tax by 12.1%, which is significant to note as its net income fell by -0.9% between 2012 and 2014. Its valuation is also substantially more attractive, as its P/E is currently 4.13 . 3. FBN Holding PLC had a 4.9% YoY increase in its profit after tax during the 1st quarter of 2015. Its P/E has now dropped even lower to 2.25 . 4. Stanbic IBTC Holdings PLC did not fare well during 2015, with a 52% YoY decline in Profit after tax during June 2015. Its net income previously grew by 230.3% between 2012 and 2014. This company is no longer listed in the top 10 fund holdings, indicating that less than 4% of the fund’s assets invest in this company. The company’s P/E is currently 7.98. 5. Ecobank Transnational Inc.: During the 1st quarter of 2015 , the company’s profit after tax rose by 65% YoY. The company’s P/E is currently 5.12 . Four out of five of the holdings in the banking industry were able to drastically increase their bottom line, and now consequently have substantially lower valuation; the average P/E for these five holdings is 5. This industry has demonstrated consistent financial performance, and is clearly being unfairly harmed by the low oil price environment. Therefore, it can be said that the low price of oil has created a substantial buy opportunity for the banking industry in Nigeria, and consequently the Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF, which invests 42.16% of its assets in the industry. What if Oil Prices Drops Further? The fund’s price has consistently declined from its 52 week of 15.56, due to the decline of oil prices beginning in late 2014. Consequently, the fund now currently has a P/E of 8.8, a far cry from the valuation of other ETFs. It is clear to see that the financial performance of the companies that the fund invests into has been exceptional, and that Nigeria has developed a new economy that is not entirely oil dependent. While it appears that oil may drop closer to $30/barrel in the future, this should not be viewed as a long term threat. Waiting for a further drop in the fund’s price, when the price of oil declines further, would be a wise endeavor. However, the takeaway is that this fund has massive upside potential once oil prices recover, and that most of the companies have fared well amidst low oil prices. The consequent irrational drop in the fund’s price has created a valuation paradise situation, for investors willing to risk investing in Nigeria. I first published an article stating my bull thesis for Nigeria when the fund was trading at 9.73; its price is lower now, but so is its valuation. Conclusion Nigeria is an excellent long term buy at the moment, with an inevitable rebound once oil prices recover. However, the country’s GDP is now diversified, and company’s in the construction and banking industry particularly have had exceptional financial performance amidst low oil prices. A further drop in the fund’s price due to declining oil prices would create even more attractive valuation. Regardless of the timing or price of the buy, a long term approach to Nigeria would be a wise endeavor for investors. My main concern is the high valuation and low growth of the consumer products industry, but this can not be avoided since the none of the fund’s holdings are listed on US exchanges. The Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF is holistically an excellent pick for investors who are willing to hold it long term, and profit from Nigeria’s economic growth. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Abengoa Yield’s (ABY) CEO Javier Garoz Discusses Q2 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Abengoa Yield plc (NASDAQ: ABY ) Q2 2015 Earnings Conference Call July 30, 2015 08:30 ET Executives Javier Garoz – Chief Executive Officer Eduard Soler – Executive Financial Officer and Chief Operations Officer Analysts Andrew Hughes – Bank of America Merrill Lynch Stephen Byrd – Morgan Stanley Andy Gupta – HITE Hedge Michael Morosi – Avondale Partners John Quealy – Canaccord Chris Malone – Palmerston Capital Javier Garoz Good morning and thank you for joining us in our Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Please proceed to Page 3. I will start with an overview of what has been achieved since our last call. It has been a quarter of solid execution and continuous growth. Regarding our solid execution, overall, we have reached strong levels of EBITDA and CAFD for the period. Our portfolio of assets has performed according to expectations. I am glad to announce the Board of Directors have approved a dividend of $0.40 per share meaning an 18% above the guidance of $0.34 we have provided for the second quarter. Thus, we are anticipating part of the $1.6 per share of dividend promise for 2015. In terms of executing previously announced transactions, we have closed the acquisition of all the assets, included in ROFO 3, which are Helios, Solnovas, the pending stake of Helioenergy and Kaxu. In addition, as per our commitments last fall, we have obtained the credit ratings from S&P and Moody’s, which have resulted in BB+ and Ba3 respectively. In relation to our ability to deliver continuous equity of growth, a few days ago we announced our fourth asset acquisition for a total price of approximately $370 million, generating $31 million of incremental CAFD before any related financial expenses. Firstly, the acquisition comprises the dropdown from Abengoa of Solaben 1 and 6. Two solar assets, very similar to the ones we already own. Secondly, after the project economics have improved significantly, we have closed the acquisition of Abengoa’s stake in ATN2, plus the stake of our financial investor, owning now 100% of this transmission line in Peru. And ultimately, we have reached an agreement to acquire a 13% of the stake owned by the Japanese firm, JGC in our asset Solacor, where we already own a 74%. These two last acquisitions are the first proof of a third-party acquisition. We expect to finance the three assets with the proceeds of the recently expanded revolving credit facility already signed with a syndicate of banks and cash on hand. We will continue pursuing third-party acquisitions through the end of the year within the target segments and geographies. Moving to Page #6, we will now review the quarterly results. In the first half of the year, our revenues and further adjusted EBITDA have reached $309 million and $265 million respectively, so a very significant growth in the range of 80% to 90% with respect to the same period of the previous year. In the six months period, we have also been able to generate $83 million of cash available for distribution. On Slide 7, you can see our revenues and further adjusted EBITDA breakdown by geography and business segment showing a strong performance across businesses and geographies quarter-after-quarter. We have experienced a very significant growth across all geographies, very much in line with our expectations. Looking at the results by business sector, in the renewable segment, we have had a very high growth, mainly driven by the assets we have acquired since our IPO and the entry into operations of Mojave. In the conventional segments, ACT in Mexico continues delivering excellent results. In the transmission segment, results have also been as expected. Moving to the next Slide #8, these results have been achieved due to a good operating performance of our overall portfolio. Within renewables, it is worth mentioning that Mojave has been reaching production levels well above 90% of its performance model, which reflects the production of what a fully optimized plant produces. This is an excellent result for a plant that has been in operation only since December and is now going through its first summer. Solana is also performing in line with its target having reached record daily productions above 4 gigawatt hour per day. Solar assets in Spain have been producing well above its target levels, with good radiation conditions throughout the period. On the other hand, wind assets in Uruguay have experienced a weak wind resource, particularly during the first quarter of the year. Similarly to what has happened in other areas of the Americas, but given it’s a small weight in the portfolio this did not have meaningful impact on us. Regarding our ability-based assets availability-based assets, which provide resilience to our portfolio. Performance has also been very solid. ACT our conventional power plant in Mexico continues showing excellent operating results. Our transmission assets have also show high availability numbers and the water assets have achieved availability levels in line with targets. I turn now to Eduard who will continue with our main financial figures. Eduard Soler Thank you, Javier. Going to Slide #9, regarding our cash flow generation, you consider we have achieved operating cash flow of around $79 million in the first half of the year and this is after deducting $151 million of interest payment, which includes a full semi-annual interest payment for the assets recently acquired. Our investing cash flow of $572 million corresponds mainly to the acquisitions completed during the period and the financing cash flow of $675 million corresponds mainly to the capital increase that we closed in May 2014 to finance those acquisitions. If we move to the next slide, regarding our financial position, we closed the first half of 2015 with around $155 million of cash at holdings level with a net corporate debt position of approximately $222 million corresponding to the Tranche A of our banking credit facility and to the 2019 bonds issuance. As Javier mentioned in the initial overview, we have increased our bank rate facility with a new Tranche B of up to $290 million to be used as a revolving credit facility to finance acquisitions. The numbers, as of June 2015 obviously do not reflect any amount of this Tranche B as it remained fully undrawn. We did levels of corporate leverage on considering our run rate CAFD before corporate interest, our corporate leverage is around 1.3 times, well below our target sailing of three times. If I move to the next slide, Slide 11, what you see there is net debt bridge where we show that our consolidated net debt position has gone from $3.8 billion to close to $5.1 million in December mainly driven by the acquisitions we have completed during the period. All the assets we have acquired come with its project finance in place. As a result, our project debt has increased by a total amount of close to $1.3 billion. It is worth noting that our corporate debt position has not increased during this period as we have financed our largest acquisitions with equity. And if we move to the Slide 12, as Javier also mentioned in the initial overview where you can see that the Board of Directors has approved a dividend of $0.40 per share for the second quarter, which is 18% above the initial guidance of $0.34 that we had provided for this second quarter. This way we are anticipating part of the $1.6 per share of dividend we have promised for the full year 2015. Javier Garoz Thank you, Eduard. We move now to Slide 14. In relation to acquisitions, we are going to start with an update on previously announced acquisitions. Specifically regarding ROFO 2, as you might recall, we have closed the drop down of Abengoa’s stake in Honaine and Skikda, two desalination plants in the north of Africa and the first 30% of Helioenergy. These three assets generate $9.4 million of cash available for distribution before acquisition financing, which represents an acquisition deal of around 10%. In addition, we have completed the acquisition of ATN2 as part of a much larger transaction we announced last Monday. The terms of this asset acquisition have changed with respect to what we announced in February. As revenue generation for the period has improved after the renegotiation with the off-taker and due to the acquisition of the stake in the project of our financial investor called Sigma, which was not previously part of the perimeter of this transaction. Regarding the dropdown of the 20% stake that Abengoa owns in Shams, the solar plant in Abu Dhabi, we have not secured all the necessary wavers at this point. Consequently, we have decided to put this acquisition on hold and considering it’s a small size, it has no impact on the guidance provided at all. Moving to the next slide regarding ROFO 3, all the assets part of a third drop-down from Abengoa have been already acquired. The remaining 70% is taking Helioenergy, the solar plants Helios and Solnovas and Kaxu in South Africa. This transaction has been closed at an acquisition deal of 9.4%. The CAFD generated by the euro denominated assets is hedged for five years by the currency swap at agreement signed with Abengoa that lock in CAFD at the exchange rate of the moment when we close the acquisition. This swap also covers all the euro-denominated assets in our portfolio. The acquisition of this group of assets has been financed as you all know with the proceeds of a capital increase closed in May. Going to the Slide #16, as mentioned earlier and continuing delivering on growth, we announced on Monday our fourth acquisition, which includes for the first time two acquisitions from third parties other than Abengoa. This fourth acquisition consist of, Abengoa’s stake in Solana 1 and Solana 6, a 100 megawatt solar complex collocated with Solana 2 and Solana 3 plants already owned by us what will generate important synergies in operation. The 100% of ATN2, I already mentioned, which is a transaction that is larger and more attractive than initially announced due to two main reasons. Higher revenues negotiated with the client and the acquisition of the stake owned by Sigma, our financial investor in the project, which was not originally foreseen. And finally, the agreement to buy an additional 13% stake in Solacor 1 and Solacor 2 from a Japanese firm JGC, where as you may recall we currently own 74%. Total consideration for these acquisitions will be $370 million, generating a run rate CAFD of $31.4 million, before acquisition financing expenses representing an acquisition deal of 8.3%. CAFD from Solaben 1 and Solaben 6 will also be covered by the currency swap agreements signed with Abengoa. We will fully finance this acquisition with our revolving credit facility, recently expanded, plus cash on hand. Then, when market conditions might be favorable, we will refinance the revolving credit facility most probably with long-term debt. It is clear that at current share prices we will not raise equity. We will update our 2016 dividend per share guidance as a result of this acquisition later in the year once we have closed the long-term financing to repay the revolving credit facility. Going to a Slide #17, with this fourth acquisition since our IPO, we have acquired $1.5 billion worth of equity in assets, mostly from Abengoa. Increasing our run rate CAFD before corporate interest by 85%, up to close to $290 million. Our acquisitions have been agreed at an average acquisition deal before the impact of any leverage of around 9%, which we consider is above industry average. In addition, we have performed all the acquisitions in industries and geographies where we have extensive experience over many years of operations and business. We continue growing being loyal to our DNA, disclosed at the IPO, counting with long-term contracts with credit worthy customers and a portfolio mostly denominated in dollars, having always project finance with non-recourse to the corporate level to isolate risk, while having a conservative leverage policy at a corporate level. All these together with the fact that we don’t have IDRs in our structure, positions ABY to continue delivering accretive growth to our shareholders as we become a larger company. In Slide 18, you can see an update of our pipeline of assets coming from Abengoa’s portfolio. As we acquire assets Abengoa has incorporated new assets under development that are all under our ROFO agreement and will be candidates for acquisitions, when they reach operation date. Since our last earning call, Abengoa has publicly disclosed that it has won new conventional power plant in Mexico and a transmission line in the United States. Sustaining the $350 million of cash available for distribution, that will be available for dropdown in the future. Going to our guidance in Page 20, today we reaffirm our guidance of $1.6 per share for 2015 and $2.10, $2.15 per share for 2016, what provides 30% growth year-over-year. This guidance will be updated after securing long-term financing for ROFO 4. Based on the visibility we have of the current pipeline of assets under operation construction or development by Abengoa, we also reaffirm our DPS growth target for 12% to 15% after 2016. We feel comfortable with what we consider a very conservative target and expect overachieving it in the future as we have done since the IPO. We will move now to Slide #21. And to finish this earnings call, I share with you a few remarkable points that makes Abengoa Yield notoriously different in this market and in my opinion a very attractive investment opportunity. First, positive economic results and cash flows have already been proved, over-delivering since the IPO. The strong performance of all our assets is the result of many years of expertise and a very committed team. Second, our existing portfolio will continue delivering strong cash flows in the future what provides Abengoa Yield with a very solid underlying value well above current stock prices. This fact makes Abengoa Yield a very attractive investment at this point in time. Third, in addition, the geographical diversification into countries with good track record of economic growth and political stability together with the nature of our contracted assets plays in our favor, contributing to the resilience of our business. Fourth, the number of ROFO assets brings significant visibility on growth, making cash flow generation highly predictable without the need to compete aggressively in the market and thus reducing the risk of overpaying for assets. Fifth, we have been strengthening our portfolio with continues dropdowns from Abengoa at a solid 9% acquisition deal above industry average. Six, driving with high beams into the future for the clear benefit of our shareholders, we have set a conservative policy around leverage with non-recourse debt at the project level and a moderate corporate leverage below three times cash available for distribution. With all these, I conclude the presentation of our second quarter results and leave the call open for questions. Let me suggest to make one concrete question at a time to facilitate adequate answers on our side. Thank you so much for your attention. And operator, we are ready for the Q&A. Question-and-Answer Session Operator The Q&A session starts now. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Hughes from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead. Andrew Hughes Good morning guys. Thanks for the question. Curious you mentioned looking potentially at third party acquisitions for the rest of the year, wondering what pro forma liquidity position is to go out and tackle that and how you would think about financing additional acquisitions going forward if there are some third parties? Javier Garoz Okay, thank you for your question. Well, at this point we are just exploring different market opportunities in line with our geographies and business segments. There is nothing to be close in the following weeks and therefore we don’t need additional liquidity, what we have today to conclude the acquisitions that we have announced. So, by the time, we could have any tangible acquisition to be closed, we would record again to the market to get the right financing or if we have already refinanced on the long-term basis, the acquisition of Solaben 1 and 6, we will come with the flexibility that the revolving credit facility allow us in terms of the capital in the acquisition on the financing timing in the market. Andrew Hughes Great, thank you. And then just a clarification on ROFO 2, the $9.4 million in incremental cash flow, that does not include contributions from ATN2, right, because that’s now included in ROFO 4? Javier Garoz No, exactly. The number has been done with the remaining assets on the ROFO 2 and ATN2 has been included in ROFO 4. Andrew Hughes Great. And then just one last one, in terms of Shams and the waiver issue there, is that a complication between you and Abengoa or something to do with the asset in particular? And just noticing the return profile over the last three acquisitions ROFO 2, 3, and 4 has compressed as your cost of capital has not necessarily declined, so thoughts there and if that’s anything to be concerned about in terms of relationship with Abengoa? Javier Garoz No, it’s not because of Abengoa, neither because of the asset, it’s just the shareholders, the other shareholders, which are not willing to, let’s say move on and facilitate this acquisition. That’s it. Eduard Soler Next question? Operator Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Stephen Byrd Good morning. Good afternoon. I wanted to just make sure that I understood the leverage position from here in terms of your targeted debt level? And this is following up on the last question, in terms of additional acquisitions, how should we think about additional leverage versus equity? Would you imagine for future acquisitions that it would be a mixture of debt and equity or do you feel that even for future acquisitions even after the ones that you announced, that’s all debt – do you think you could potentially finance one or two additional acquisitions all with debt or how should we think about cap structure for future acquisitions from here? Eduard Soler Yes. With the existing leverage that we have, which is very [indiscernible] and you know that our target is go up to three. So, we thought with just that we could raise $500 million of debt easily without further acquisitions. And obviously that’s more than enough to refinance the proceeds that the price that we will pay now for the assets of the fourth dropdown. So, we will have plenty of space with our existing portfolio, pro forma of the fourth drop down to raise even more debt to do acquisitions and obviously when you do acquisitions that one brings extra CAFD that you can de-lever. So, on top of that, we have – we will have the revolving credit facility. So, to your question, yes, we could finance further acquisitions only with that obviously in the long-term like any of the yieldcos we will balance both debt and equity as we execute our growth plan. Stephen Byrd Understood. And then just on the returns on the dropdowns, we have seen a trend down someone in returns, so I do take your point that on average your yields on dropdowns have been above the industry average. Can you just talk about the rationale for the targeted yield that you have had on recent acquisitions given it’s a challenging environment in terms of the implied cost of capital for yieldcos overall? How do you think about that appropriate dropdown sort of in the future? Should we expect this trend downwards to continue or will it be really case-by-case depending on the asset? How should we think about that? Javier Garoz Well, we feel comfortable with an average 9% deal in our portfolio. Of course, it’s a case-by-case and it will depend on market situation. It is clear that we will always do a treaty of acquisitions and therefore there must be on a spread between the acquisition deals and the cost of financing would be equity or would be or would be a debt. And it is clear also that for example at current levels of the share price, we will not do any capital increase. And as Eduard was saying before, we will record to any kind of debt at the right time and when the market might be up a bit for that. So, I think at this point in time, we feel comfortable with the average yield that we are having throughout all the acquisitions we have done. Stephen Byrd Understood. That makes sense. And just last question, just on the relationship with the parent, there certainly in some investor questions about the financial strength of the parent. In the event of financial distress at the parent, can you remind us of how from Abengoa Yield shareholder point of view we should think about protection and certainty that these assets that are eligible will in fact be sold to Abengoa Yield? Javier Garoz Well, first of all, I am not really familiar with exactly what’s going on with Abengoa. So, I don’t want to extend much on that. And with regards to the hypothetical situation of our financial distress, I think we should keep in mind different considerations. First of all, the assets under construction right now, they are mostly financed through the warehouse. They have set with another financial investor, APW1. So, I foresee that somehow the financing for those projects is somehow secure and available for them to get to a final conclusion. Then in the situation in which Abengoa minor continue providing the operation and maintenance service for our assets, we can always record to the market, find for someone else doing that or takeover the operations directly. And keep in mind that we have strong cash flows coming from 20 assets in our portfolio, which has pretty strong underlying value and therefore our growth might be slightly impact, I say slightly because we always can record to the market for third-party acquisitions, but I don’t foresee any major inconvenience or stress for the ABY shareholders. Stephen Byrd That’s great. Thank you very much. Javier Garoz Thank you. Operator [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Andy Gupta from HITE Hedge. Please go ahead. Andy Gupta Hi. Good afternoon, guys and congratulations on the quarter. I just wanted to walkthrough a quick math with you. I am trying to understand the $1.60 guidance. Based on your CAFD for the first half of $83 million and I assume that will continue the second half. I get a total of $1.66 and then if I add the additional ROFO 3 and 4 that you have announced that’s another 45 and I subtract additional interest expense, I get about 207 of CAFD and if I apply a 90% payout ratio, I get to about a $1.82 for dividends. So, one I wanted to see if ballpark this is right and second why maintain $1.60 after having increased your second quarter distribution? Eduard Soler The $1.60 per share guidance implies a CAFD for the year of $178 million or $180 million, okay. So, we are very well on track to reach that. But, you know that summer is a very important season in our business and before increasing our commitment to the market, we want to make sure that the thing works out properly. And we will go through the summer season with results similar to the ones who have been delivering up until now. So, we will delay the seasonal and potential increase of the $1.6 for later in the year. Andy Gupta That makes sense, Eduard. What about – what could impact your summer? Is it above or below long-term average on the solar? Is that what is a sticking point here? Eduard Soler Yes. We don’t expect any impact at all at this point, but just we prefer to be conservative and go through the summer. You know there is a peak in solar generation in summer time and therefore we want to see how all the assets are performing, how do we get closer to the end of the year, so that’s why we want to be conservative at this point. Andy Gupta I understand. And the impact for Shams is about $2 million in EBITDA for the full year, is that about right? I know it was a very small amount. Eduard Soler On EBITDA, is actually zero because it was an – we will not, it’s a 20%, so you don’t consolidate that stake in any case. In CAFD, it’s a very small impact, more than compensated by the better ATN2 that we just closed. Andy Gupta Understood. And one last thing is I just want to confirm again on our previous answer that you could raise based on the financing, after financing of this acquisition for, you still have capacity to raise another $500 million of debt to fund further acquisitions and still be within your leverage levels? Eduard Soler If you do the quick math, you know that we are close to $290 million of CAFD debt service, once accounted for this transaction and our target level of leverage is to be below 3. So if you do the math that means that we could raise $500 million counting on this portfolio and respecting our policy. We need much less to execute these transactions in order to refinance the dropdown – sorry the revolving credit facility we will use for the dropdown and then of course we would do an acquisition with that money. And that acquisition would bring extra CAFD that could be levered three times. Andy Gupta Got it. Well, thank you again. Javier Garoz Thank you, Andy. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Michael Morosi from Avondale Partners. Please go ahead. Michael Morosi Hi, thanks for taking my question. First off, one of the pushback that I have received from investors has related to the performance of concentrating solar projects. So, maybe if you could just speak about how your assets have performed over the quarter and what you guys are doing operationally to maintain a high level of output? Javier Garoz Okay. Well, of course, CSP is much more difficult to manage than PV, that’s quite obvious, nothing new under the sun. Having said that, we have been operating CSP plants for the last 15 years, especially with parabolic trough, which we consider is very consolidated technology in the market, not only owned by our sponsor Abengoa, but also by other participants and competitors in this market. So, it is true that it is more difficult, but it doesn’t mean it’s an impossible mission. So, going through the summer time, our assets are performing pretty good at this point. Radiation has been higher in some parts than expected. And therefore, our European assets are above 100% of the expectation. When looking at the assets in the United States, I think as I mentioned before, we are pretty comfortable with the ramp up of Mojave, which has achieved about 95% performance over the last two months, which is pretty good. And Solana is starting to generate up to record levels of, as I said before, 4 gigawatt hour of production in the last days. So, I think in general, all our CSP portfolio is performing even above expectations. Michael Morosi Okay, thank you. And then as it relates to your third-party acquisition strategy and just looking at the evolution of your portfolio as you progressed through the ROFOs, it seems like conventional assets and transmission assets are going to take a larger percentage of your overall CAFD and portfolio. So, I would just like to see how that will in turn influence maybe the assets that you pursue in terms of the M&A and the different markets and the different segments that you are pursuing and what that could mean for – for transaction yields? Javier Garoz Well, I am not sure if viewers anticipating there will be a much higher weight of conventional generation and transmission line in our portfolio. It will depend on what speed Abengoa is dropping down those assets after completion and it is true that we are trying to find synergetic assets, which might be adjacent transmission lines to the ones we already own in Chile or Peru or any other type of generation assets that might generate some kind of synergy cost benefit or similar when operating with our existing assets. So it’s not easy. We feel we are not forced to do acquisitions at any price and we feel comfortable that we can deliver the growth and the DPS we promise with the existing portfolio and therefore we will be cautious when acquiring assets. We are looking at right now different alternatives in South and North America. Some other parts of Europe might be a target, not clear, because they have to be mostly in U.S. dollars. And there would be other opportunities in other markets in Africa as well, but it’s still unclear. Michael Morosi Alright. Thanks for the questions. Great quarter. Javier Garoz Thank you. Operator Our next question comes from the line of John Quealy from Canaccord. Please go ahead. John Quealy Hey, good afternoon folks. So, in terms of your plans and the Abengoa’s plans to dropdown assets, given some of the liquidity concerns that debtholders have had over that stock recently, what’s the likelihood that you could accelerate ROFOs, Javier, in the next couple of years and just if you walk us through some scenarios there? Thanks. Javier Garoz Well, I would like to accelerate ROFOs, but I don’t think it’s going to be up to us just exclusively, John. So, it will be mostly dependent on Abengoa and the speed at which they can execute the completion of the projects. From what it refers to our capability to acquire, of course it’s going to depend on how the stock is trading, of course, at the current prices is going to be difficult to make any capital increase and to do accretive acquisitions and how open the debt markets are going to be. So, I think it will depend mostly on the market to get the financing for acquiring the ROFO – sorry, the ROFO assets, but mostly it will depend on Abengoa to speed up the execution of those assets. John Quealy Alright, great. Thanks, folks. Javier Garoz Thank you, John. Operator Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Hughes from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. I am sorry. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Malone from Palmerston Capital. Please go ahead sir. Chris Malone Good morning guys. I was just wondering if you could give us some detail on the fees in relation to the service agreement on the Spanish assets in ROFO 3 and 4 given that we have so many Spanish assets now? Hello? Did you get that? Javier Garoz Yes, Chris. Yes. Chris Malone Okay, thanks. Javier Garoz We got it. Well, we got a service support agreement with Abengoa, because some let’s say commodity activities, let me call, are subcontracted to Abengoa and this is why we are paying a service report fee to Abengoa. I am talking about accounting and some kind of tax support and things like that, but apart from that, I am not aware of any other additional fee. I don’t know if you have something specific? Chris Malone No, no. Just I noticed at the time of the IPO that the service fees is payable to Abengoa on the non-Spanish assets is 1% and for the Spanish assets it was 2.5%. And specifically related to the assets that we are in ROFO 3, in your 6-K filing, it seems like there was a 15% of revenue fee paid to Abengoa. I was just wondering is that part of the old regime that’s going to be re-struck at a new level, just trying to get a sense from what… Eduard Soler Each asset is different in that regard. And you are correct some assets pay 1%, some of the initial Spanish assets that we had in our portfolio were paying closer to 2%, but that’s different in adjusted earnings. And in the new ones, it tends to be in the lower side. Chris Malone I am sorry, I missed that last bit it tends to be what? Sorry. Eduard Soler In the low side of that range. Chris Malone Okay, of the 1 to 2, great. Thanks very much. And maybe just one more question, the revolver that’s recently been upsized, is there a clean down provision in that? Eduard Soler You mean a period after where we could not redraw again only if after paying it down? Chris Malone Once annually, where you have to train it down, pay it off and before you can redraw it okay, right. Eduard Soler No, no. When we repay, we need to wait, I think its 10 business days to redraw again, but it’s a very minor thing. Chris Malone Okay. And maybe, if you don’t mind, one last one, the third-party transactions that you have just done, where they executed in relation to any tag along rights or put called structures or would you just go in unsolicited, okay? Javier Garoz No, it was an unsolicited proposal. Chris Malone Okay. Javier Garoz They affected and we closed the deal. Chris Malone Great, okay. Thanks very much. Javier Garoz Thank you, Chris. Operator Our current last question comes from the line of Andrew Hughes from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead. Andrew Hughes Hi, team. I just had a quick follow-up on one of the earlier questions about scenarios of consent financial distress at the parent and how that might impact their ability to complete projects going forward. If I look on Slide 18 and the list of sort of your replenished ROFO opportunity set, can you give us a sense for what in the 2016 to 2020 timeframe for assets coming online? What is being built within the warehouse, what is not? So, just we have a sense of what assets are sort of not sensitive to true financial distress at the parent. Thanks. Javier Garoz Yes. Well, I would love being able to answer that, but I think this is more a question for Abengoa I guess, because you are asking, which of those are part of the APW 1 or which ones will be part of any other warehouse that might be working on right now and this is an answer of that regretfully we don’t have. Andrew Hughes Alright, understood. Thanks. Javier Garoz Thank you. Operator [Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. There are no further questions. Javier Garoz Thank you very much to everyone for the attention. And I will be looking forward to see you within three months.

Investing In Africa: A Long-Term Growth Opportunity?

Summary Certain indicators point to an overvalued S&P 500. Prudent investors should consider more attractively valued indexes. Despite headwinds, Africa’s improving fundamentals suggest long term growth opportunities. As the new year begins to take shape, most investors have their attention squarely focused on the United States as the oasis of growth in a desert of underperforming national economies. Nevertheless, when we take a closer look at the key American stock market index, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY ), it would appear that many market observers consider it to be overvalued. Some suggest that its blended P/E ratio of 17 is on the upper end of its historical normal valuation range since 2001, others warn that it is historically expensive relative to GDP and finally most point to the Shiller P/E which currently sits at 26.4, which is 59% higher than the historical mean of 16.6. Although it is difficult to make accurate broad valuation forecasts for a large collection of companies such as the S&P 500, such forecasts can be useful to the prudent investor. If we are willing to accept that many companies trading on the S&P 500 are trading at or above their fair value we may at minimum need to consider the possibility of a slowdown in broad index growth over the coming year. As such, the prudent investor may want to start contemplating other more attractively valued indexes. It would appear that such opportunities lie in Africa. Despite several headwinds such as the effects of the Ebola virus, civil unrest (Boko Harem), the slowdown in the global economy and the drop in the price of oil, Africa remains a resilient continent poised to record around +5% economic growth. In a recent report Yogesh Gokool, head of the AfrAsia Bank explains that this growth will be primarily driven by more foreign direct investments and remittances from non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries that will continue to pour money into corporate acquisitions and large-scale infrastructure projects. Resource rich countries will continue to attract the lion share of FDIs into Africa yet with the drop in the price of oil and rising wages in Asia, manufacturing will also be a significant recipient. The other main driver of growth will be private consumption. In a recent report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa entitled African Economic Outlook 2015 it was found that private consumption in Africa is expected to accelerate by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8 percent in 2015 due to consumer confidence and the expanding middle class. Private Consumption and gross capital formation are expected to be key drivers of growth (click to enlarge) Data Source: UN-DESA, 2014 In addition, inflation should remain under control by 0.4 percentage points to 0.7 in 2015. Subdued inflation across economic groupings (click to enlarge) Data Source: UN-DESA, 2014 As for fiscal deficits, the current account balance is expected to decline but remain positive for oil exporting countries while the current account deficit may rise less than expected due to lower oil prices for oil importing countries. Moderating fiscal deficits expected in 2015 among country groupings (click to enlarge) Data Source: EIU, 2014 As mentioned above, certain downside risks could slow economic growth in Africa such as the effects of the Ebola virus, civil unrest (Boko Harem), the drop in oil and commodity prices and a global growth slowdown. Based on early assessments , the economies of Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone are experiencing significant hardship as public finances are strained and household incomes are dropping. Nevertheless, the economic impact is not as bad as some feared as the World Bank estimated that Ebola could cost the region as much as $32 billion and the real cost appears to only be a tenth of that figure. In fact, a positive impact of the outbreak seems to be the renewed urgency to reinforce basic public health systems in vulnerable regions. As for lower commodity prices, the negative impact on the continent’s growth may be offset as lower prices will help ease balance of payments pressures in food and energy importing countries while commodity exporting countries face lower export earnings. Furthermore, these commodity declines will serve to reaffirm the benefits of more diversified national economies. Finally, in the face of a potential global slowdown Africa should remain attractive as its economic fundamentals remain sound . Governance and macroeconomic management have improved. Investment in infrastructure, human and physical capital are increasing. Productivity, the middle class and diversified trade are all growing and finally a culture of entrepreneurship is being created. Conclusions Given the risks outlined above and my belief that stable growth in Africa is still a long way off, it may be better to describe investing in Africa as an opportunity for the enterprising investor rather than the prudent investor. Nevertheless, if you remain patient and take a long-term view of an investment in Africa, you may be interested in several ETFs which have African exposure and are currently trading near their 52 week lows. The first is the Market Vectors Africa Index ETF (NYSEARCA: AFK ), which allocates just over a quarter of its weight to developed market countries that do business in Africa. This allocation serves to reduce some of the fund’s exposure to the volatility of local African markets. The fund is heavily weighted to South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria with financials accounting for around 40% of the fund while materials and energy account for around 30%. The other ETF of note is the Guggenheim Frontier Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: FRN ). This fund invests in a collection of small, illiquid and risky markets with great growth potential known as frontier markets . These often high yielding markets have become an asset class in their own right and the fund’s exposure to Africa is only about 13%, with the rest allocated to other markets in Latin America.