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Augmented Reality Could Be The Next Big Leap For Personal Computing

Major tech companies like Alphabet ( GOOGL ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) believe the next leap forward in personal computing could be augmented reality glasses, with Microsoft set to usher in the new era on Wednesday. Computerized glasses that overlay information onto a wearer’s field of vision could replace having to glance at smartphones, tablets and PCs for many applications. Some futurists say augmented reality glasses — as opposed to virtual reality — could one day replace smartphones. With AR computer headsets like Microsoft’s HoloLens, users can get visual and audio instructions from remote experts for tasks such as electrical and plumbing repairs. Such glasses can also give people on-screen navigation and directions, deliver alerts and messages, and assist in identifying objects and locations. Commercial applications are expected to be early drivers of augmented reality — aka mixed reality — applications. Many field service, warehouse and maintenance workers could benefit from hands-free smartglasses technology that can be operated by voice commands, gestures or eye movements. “AR will have a profound impact, particularly on how we do a lot of jobs and how a lot of business gets done,” Tom Mainelli, an analyst with market research firm IDC, told IBD. “But it’s very early days.” With the  developer launch of Microsoft’s HoloLens on Wedneseday, augmented reality could be starting another hype cycle, Mainelli said. The last hype cycle around AR crashed a few years ago when Alphabet’s Google Glass sputtered during its development. That early version of Google Glass was more of a head-up information display than a true augmented reality headset. It had an eye-level display, forward-looking camera, wireless connectivity and microphone for voice commands. By contrast, Microsoft HoloLens projects images and visual information onto the lenses of its special glasses in the wearer’s field of view. The HoloLens headset also is packed with sensors for integrating the real world with computer data. Microsoft is at first focusing on commercial applications for HoloLens. First out is the Development Edition of HoloLens, which costs $3,000 and is targeted to software developers and enterprises. Microsoft estimates it could take another five years for a consumer version to hit the market. “There is going to be a lot of business use cases for augmented reality before it comes to the consumer market,” Brian Blau, an analyst with research firm Gartner, told IBD. Augmented reality glasses are likely to find early use in service industries, logistics, health care, education and design, analysts say. Confusing matters is the fact that many research firms like to combine augmented reality with virtual reality in their market projections. While both technologies feature wearable displays, VR is an immersive experience that blocks out your surroundings and AR uses see-through displays for adding digital data to the real world. Virtual reality is coming to market sooner,  Facebook ’s ( FB ) Oculus Rift starting to ship on Monday and Sony ’s ( SNE ) PlayStation VR expected to launch in Q3 or Q4. Both products, for now, are focused on video games and surround entertainment. Revenue Of … $120 Billion By  2020? Augmented reality is about accessing information and making people more productive. In January, Digi-Capital forecast that AR/VR revenue could hit $120 billion by 2020, with AR grabbing about $90 billion and VR at $30 billion, up from practically nothing last year. Besides Alphabet and Microsoft, other companies developing augmented reality technologies include Atheer, Daqri, Canon, Magic Leap, Meta, Osterhout Design Group, Seiko Epson and Vuzix ( VUZI ). Other companies said to be investing in AR include Apple ( AAPL ), Facebook, Samsung and Snapchat. Apple is likely looking at augmented reality glasses as an eventual replacement for the smartphones, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in research report last week. He predicts Apple will come out with “mixed reality” glasses in the 2021-2025 time frame. “We believe 10 years from now, Generation Z will find reality inefficient,” he said. “Being accustomed to having instant information from smartphones and other devices, Generation Z will see the benefits of mixed reality headsets that augment the world with real-time information as they need it and in their field of view, without needing to look at one piece of information at a time on a smartphone.” For AR headsets to go mainstream, they’ll need to be much smaller and less expensive, analysts say. The experience also will need to improve, with refinements to speed, field of view and resolution. Augmented reality will be in the development stage for the next few years, Mainelli said. AR headsets will ship in small volumes to developers and for proof-of-concept projects, he said. “It will take a couple of years before we start seeing meaningful volumes,” he said. “And even then these will be expensive devices, which is why it will be a commercial play first.”

NetEase Sees Dip In Mobile And PC Games, Gets Hurt By Tax Change

China gaming company  NetEase ( NTES ) is being hit by declining user activity for both its PC and mobile games and an “unfavorable” tax rate change, according to an analyst. “Cross-border commerce continues to grow, but we are cautious on likely negative catalysts, including government regulations, currency exchange fluctuation and intensifying competition,” wrote ITG Investment Research analyst Henry Guo in a research note Monday. Seasonality and competition are offsetting the company’s cross-border e-commerce momentum in Q1, he said. “Longer term, we continue to see multiple potential risks to NetEase’s e-commerce efforts, considering the uncertainties related to government policy and tax regulations on cross-border commerce and increasing competition from established e-commerce players in the market,” Guo wrote. NetEase stock closed Monday at 140, down 3.1%. NetEase stock has risen 36% in the past 12 months but is down 22% since early January. Shares touched a record high above 186 near the end of 2015. Three China tech firms — Internet search leader Baidu ( BIDU ), e-commerce king Alibaba Group ( BABA ) and Tencent Holdings ( TCEHY ), China’s leader in messaging and gaming — lead the way in China’s Internet arena. NetEase is another leader on China’s Web, as is e-commerce company JD.com ( JD ). The company said that revenue from online games, its biggest segment, more than doubled in Q4, thanks to growth in its original mobile games. The company’s “Westward Journey Online” and “Fantasy Westward Journey” came in as the top two games in the Apple ( AAPL ) iOS China app store in the fourth quarter, NetEase said. While the company now has multiple mobile games in testing, Guo said, few are available for public testing. “As such, we haven’t seen a step-up in game user activity in the quarter, which we attribute to a lack of promotions or incentives,” he said. Guo said he has modeled NetEase’s ad revenue to decline 10% quarter over quarter in Q1 2016, “a significant improvement from the year-ago period’s 18% quarter-over-quarter decline, reflecting NetEase’s heightened immunity to advertising seasonality, such as the Chinese New Year.” NetEase is best known for its desktop PC games and has had a lucrative exclusive license for Activision Blizzard ( ATVI )‘s “World of Warcraft” in mainland China since 2009. The company also develops its own games, mostly the multiplayer variety played on desktop PCs and mobile devices. Apple stock closed down a fraction at 105.19, while JD.com stock fell 2% to close at 25.82. Alibaba stock rose a fraction to close at 76.48, while Baidu stock rose a fraction to 185.17.

Feds Withdraw Order That Apple Hack Killer’s iPhone

The U.S. Department of Justice has withdrawn its demand that Apple ( AAPL ) help it hack into an iPhone belonging to one of the shooters in the San Bernardino, Calif., massacre, according to media reports late Monday. The news comes one week after the Justice Department said it had learned of a way to unlock a password-protected iPhone without Apple’s help. Last week, the FBI said an unidentified outside party had demonstrated to it a possible method for unlocking the iPhone in question. CNBC reported Monday that authorities had successfully accessed data on the iPhone belonging to Syed Farook, one of the two now-deceased killers in the San Bernardino shootings. Farook and his wife, Tashfeen Malik, shot and killed 14 people on Dec. 2. The radicalized Muslim couple, described in press reports as supporters of terror group ISIS, died in a gun battle with police. A U.S. magistrate on Feb. 16 ordered Apple to assist the FBI in hacking Farook’s iPhone, but Apple contested the order, saying it would set a dangerous precedent. Apple said the government wanted it to create a back door around its security protections that would put the data of all of its customers at risk. Apple executives said the government was overstepping its bounds by ordering Apple to write special software to hack its own smartphones. The case has fueled a debate over smartphone encryption, which has pitted Silicon Valley and civil rights groups against the federal government and law enforcement agencies. Federal authorities now say they don’t need Apple’s help in the case and are asking the judge to drop her Feb. 16 order. USA Today was the first to report that the government would drop its case against Apple.