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Get your free 48-inch TV. Get your free year of Major League Baseball’s online streaming service. Get your free three months of HBO Now. The nation’s big wireless phone companies — AT&T ( T ), Verizon Communications ( VZ ), and T-Mobile US ( TMUS ) — are zeroing in on video-driven promotions to grab new subscribers amid slowing industry growth. Although wireless firms continue to be aggressive with promotions, consumers have been upgrading to new smartphones at a slower-than-usual pace. Instead, they’re holding on to older mobile phones after they’re paid off. That trend is expected to highlight wireless results when phone companies report first-quarter earnings, analysts say. Verizon kicks off telecom’s Q1 earnings season on April 21, followed by AT&T on April 26. T-Mobile, boosted by its Uncarrier-branded promotions, is expected in Q1 to again have added the most “postpaid” phone accounts, the subscribers most coveted because of higher spending on data and other services than prepaid customers. Promotional activity is expected to rise ahead of Apple ’s ( AAPL ) iPhone 7 launch, likely in September. AT&T Offering Free 48-Inch HDTV “The wireless market remains intensely competitive and has expanded to video,” said Roger Entner, analyst at Recon Analytics. “The free offers have steadily escalated from free phones to free tablets. “Last year’s big offer was free Netflix or other video services for a year. Now you can get a big-screen TV (from AT&T) just for switching providers.” New AT&T wireless or DirecTV customers can get a free 48-inch HDTV if they buy Samsung’s Galaxy 7 smartphone. Unlimited data plans have returned at AT&T, meanwhile, but only for new or existing pay-TV subscribers. At T-Mobile, customers can now stream video from 50 websites without taking a hit on their monthly data caps. And new T-Mobile subscribers get a free year of MLB’s online video service. Verizon has invested heavily in its Go90 mobile video service. To spur usage of advertising-supported Go90, Verizon no longer counts its own Go90 mobile video service toward subscriber data caps. Separately, mobile users that switch to Verizon get three free months of access to HBO Now, a $45 value. The flurry of video-centric offers coincides with other aggressive promotions. “Promotional activity picked up in mid-February and arguably accelerated through the end of Q1 (March 31),” Citigroup analyst Michael Rollins said in a research report. The fourth of the national wireless carriers, Sprint ( S ), extended its “cut your bill in half” deal into Q1. The promotion offers subscribers that switch from AT&T, Verizon or T-Mobile a 50% price cut on their existing plans. Sprint recently also re-launched a 30-day guarantee for new users. All 4 Wireless Carriers Offer Early Termination Fees So-called buy-one get-one (BOGO) offers have been expanded for Apple’s iPhone 6S and the new iPhone SE, as well as Samsung’s Galaxy S7. And all four carriers have offered up to $650 per line to cover early termination fees if consumers switch service providers. Verizon, which was the last of the four to make the ETF offer, ended that offer on Friday along with its Galaxy S7 BOGO offer. Amid the proliferation of promotions, the consensus view is that T-Mobile’s subscriber-additions winning streak will continue, though Apple’s iPhone 7 remains a wild card. “Binge On and other promotions continue to resonate with subscribers,” Michael Bowen, a Pacific Crest analyst, said in a report. After adding the most postpaid subscriber in 2014 and 2015, T-Mobile has forecast that it’ll add 2.9 million postpaid subscriber this year, at the midpoint of its guidance, which would again lead the industry, analysts say, though would be way down from 4.5 million in 2015 and 4.9 million in 2014. Observers speculate T-Mobile will continue to innovate by soon rolling out data-only wireless plans, targeting consumers adept at using Internet calling apps or making free calls over Wi-Fi networks. AT&T, meanwhile, has lost postpaid phone subscribers for five quarters in a row, including 256,000 shed in Q4, lagging its three rivals. “AT&T came out of the gates relatively aggressive in 2016,” said Colby Synesael, analyst at Cowen & Co., in a report. T-Mobile and Sprint have made share gains at AT&T’s expense, says Craig Moffett, an analyst at MoffettNathanson. “AT&T has been forced to respond by significantly upping promotional allowances, including BOGO offers and ETF buyouts,” Moffett wrote in a report. Jefferies analyst Mike McCormack estimates AT&T now has about 2 million wireless lines associated with new unlimited data plans for customers that buy both wireless and pay-TV services. AT&T launched the unlimited promotion in early January. Sprint is expected to add postpaid phone subscribers in Q1. There are mixed views on Verizon, which continues to run its business with the goal of maintaining industry-leading profit margins. Some analyst forecast that Verizon will lose postpaid phone accounts in Q1, while others see Verizon with a small gain. Verizon responded to Sprint’s Q1 inroads with advertising featuring comedian Ricky Gervais. Scalper1 News
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